SoCal Forecast
Updated most Sundays, Tuesdays, and Thursdays
Thursday Mar. 28, 2024 6:10 AM
By Nathan Cool
Surf Charts for SoCal
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At a glance:
Today (Thursday the 28th) we have a fair amount of NW ground swell in SoCal that'll continue Friday the 29th. Bigger WSW wind swell is due this weekend. Wind swell is also being watched for late next week. And cleaner NW ground swell is becoming possible for the 9th-10th, along with background southern hemi. Condition-wise: a dynamic storm hits SoCal by the weekend; rain likely late next week; winds strong at times over the next few days; tide levels are moderate; and water temps are slow to recuperate from the recent upwelling.
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Current Conditions:
Early this morning, periods were primarily running 16 seconds from 295°.
Most west facing breaks were running chest to head high. Direct south facing breaks were running waist to chest.
Buoys in the outer waters were running 7'. Nearshore buoys were running 2' (south facing) to 2.6' (west facing).
Tide levels are moderate. Today we have a 0.3' low around 6:00 AM, a 3.5' high around noon, a 1.6' low around 5:00 PM, and a 5' high around 11:30 PM.
Water temps are slow to recuperate from the recent upwelling. SD was running 57-60°. OC was varied late yesterday with Newport Beach 54°, Huntington Beach 55°, and San Celemente Pier 60°. LA was hovering around 57-58°, although Zuma reported lower at 55°. In VC, Channel Islands Harbor reported 56° overnight. SB Harbor reported 59° this morning.
Surf Forecast:
Today (Thursday the 28th) we're seeing NW ground swell from a storm that broke off Japan and peaked a few days ago about 3,500 nautical miles from SoCal. Throughout the day today we should also see NW ground swell from this low pressure system making its way to the Oregon coast (model by NOAA MAG):
The trough housing that low will continue to dip farther south, bringing a dynamic storm to SoCal this weekend. But on Friday, ground swell kicked up by that system yesterday (and today) should keep head high sets going at west facing breaks, angled from a steeper 305-310° with periods 14 seconds.
Saturday the 30th (building early) into Sunday the 31st (peak early AM) should see WSW wind swell as the jetstream bends farther south, creating a deeper trough of low pressure that will house this dynamic, dual-low-pressure system into SoCal, making for a dynamic weekend for weather while stirring wind swell into SoCal (model by NOAA MAG):
Heavy rain is due this weekend with southerly winds so conditions look trashed. As for size, west facing breaks are looking at wind swell waves running a couple feet overhead when this wind swell peaks, which should be by noon Saturday the 30th, peaking in the early morning hours Sunday the 31st. Wind swell should be angled from a wide swath of 260-280° with periods 10-12 seconds, so south facing breaks will see some of this too. Conditions look hazardous and caution is strongly advised. In any case, wind swell should back off to about chest to head high Monday the 1st, smaller Tuesday the 2nd (waist high).
Thursday the 4th into Friday the 5th will likely see NW wind swell from another trough of low pressure dropping south into SoCal. So far this isn't looking nearly as potent as the one this weekend, so chest high seems like a reasonable call for west facing breaks both days, with wind swell angled from the usual ≥300° and periods 8-10 seconds. Wind swell will likely back off over the weekend of the 6th-7th with waist high surf at west facing breaks then and Monday the 8th.
Tuesday the 9th into Wednesday the 10th could see NW ground swell from two separate yet similar systems coming out of the Western Pacific that'd take a northeasterly course into the Gulf of Alaska. Here's how the second, more notable system looks on the 8-day models today (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
A smaller, higher latitude system would precede that, initially bringing chest high sets to west facing breaks Tuesday the 9th, with the main band of swell arriving from the second system Wednesday the 10th with chest to head high sets. Swell would be angled from 305-310° with periods up to 16 seconds. This is still on the long range so it needs more monitoring.
Tuesday the 9th will likely also see intermittent SW ground swell from this low latitude system hugging the coast of Antarctica (model by FNMOC):
Staying a good 6,300 nautical miles away from SoCal with no northward nudge, we'd get a mere glancing blow of energy, producing waist high sets at south facing breaks, angled from 205° with periods 16 seconds. NW ground swell would likely produce wrap into south facing breaks of equal or greater size, but that's too early to call right now. But I'll stay on top of it and with your support I'll be able to keep you posted.
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Here's how the day-to-day is breaking down so far:
Friday the 29th is expected to run head high at west facing breaks.
Saturday the 30th should see conditions take a turn as WSW wind swell fills in and a storm approaches, bringing a number of hazards. As for size: head high+ at west facing breaks and chest high south facing spots. Water contact is not advised.
Sunday the 31st should see head high+ wind swell at west facing breaks and at least chest high at south facing spots.
Monday the 1st looks about chest high at west facing spots (smaller at south facing spots).
Tuesday the 2nd looks about waist high at west facing breaks.
Wednesday the 3rd looks about waist high at west facing breaks.
Thursday the 4th, so far, is expected to see NW wind swell fill in, running chest high by the afternoon.
Friday the 5th, so far, is expected to see chest to at times head high wind swell waves at west facing breaks.
Saturday the 6th, so far, looks about waist to chest high at west facing breaks.
Sunday the 7th, so far, looks about waist high at west facing breaks.
Monday the 8th, so far, looks similar.
Tuesday the 9th, so far, is looking at chest high ground swell at west facing breaks and waist high ground swell at south facing spots.
Wednesday the 10th, so far, holds potential for chest to head high ground swell at west facing breaks, but this needs more monitoring over the next few days.
Weather Outlook:
Today (Thursday the 28th) is not the marine-layer-free day models showed a couple days ago. A heavy onshore push is underway with a burn-off expected late morning. Beach max temps should run in the low 60s.
Friday the 29th transitions as this storm makes its way into SoCal, seen from space this morning (image from NOAA GOES):
This is an interesting storm in that it doesn't have any well-defined moisture plume to tap into, with dry air (yellow) running at SoCal latitudes, and only a thin plume farther south. Still, this system is picking up a lot of precipitable moisture (green), and will cause frontal lifting into other blobs of wetness to its south and west. That storm will then dive south through SoCal latitudes before swinging into SoCal from the south, which will be the cause for its high rain rates, thanks to orographic enhancement (pile-driving moisture into SoCal from the south, blocked by the mountains to create higher precip). It also has a fairly cold core, evident from the telltale markers of those sporadic, broken-up clouds in that low, which will make this a dynamic, springtime storm for SoCal.
Breaking down what to expect: Skies should cloud-up throughout the day Friday and beaches will struggle to reach the 60° mark. Rain should start Friday evening in SB and VC (around 5:00 PM), spreading south, reaching LA sometime after midnight, and then OC and SD predawn Saturday the 30th. Heavy rain is expected to start a couple hours after the initial rain arrives, with a very heavy band lasting 3-4 hours, and then steadier, more moderate rain following after. Rain is expected all day Saturday, and lighter rain is expected Sunday; however, a second, semi-heavy band of rain is likely Sunday afternoon. The convective parameters look rather high both afternoons (Saturday and Sunday), so we could see thunderstorms, hail, and waterspouts in the afternoons Saturday and Sunday. Hail would be more likely inland, but waterspouts can't be ruled out along the coast. As for rain totals, models continue to show this bringing about 2" of rain to most of the SoCal coast, with some pockets to 3" possible.
As for air temps, Saturday and Sunday should be in the upper 50s to right around 60° max at the coast.
Monday the 1st looks clear as the storm moves to the east and high pressure builds into the region. Beach max temps should run in the low 60s. Tuesday the 2nd and Wednesday the 3rd look similar.
Thursday the 4th into Friday the 5th could see light rain as another trough of low pressure pushes south to SoCal. So far this looks very light, perhaps 0.1" max at the coast.
Wind Outlook:
Winds
at 6:00 AM (Thursday the 28th) were light and variable most everywhere. Onshores should increase throughout the morning and run 15 mph by noon, and then 20 mph by mid afternoon.
Friday the 29th should see AM light and variables with a southerly element, increasing from the south during the morning 10-15 mph, and then up to 20 mph from the south in the afternoon, stronger in the evening as the storm approaches.
Saturday the 30th should see southerlies early to 10-15 mph, running 15-20 mph for most of the day.
Sunday the 31st should see AM southerlies 10-15 mph, relaxing by late morning into the afternoon.
Monday the 1st should see AM light and variables with afternoon onshores to 10 mph.
Until my next report (Sunday), take care, be safe, and smile in the lineup!