SoCal Forecast
Updated most Sundays, Tuesdays, and Thursdays
Sunday 12/21/25 6:55 AM
By Nathan Cool
Surf Charts for SoCal
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Schedule change this week: My next report will be posted Tuesday. Since Christmas falls on a Thursday I'll post that report on Friday.
At a glance:
Today (Sunday the 21st) we have light to moderate NW ground swell in SoCal, which will fade over the next couple days. WSW wind swell picks up Wednesday the 24th into Thursday the 25th ahead of a significant increase in NW ground swell Friday the 26th. The next swell is being watched for New Year's Eve. Condition-wise: a very wet storm with high winds and numerous hazards is headed to SoCal; the tide is swinging wide; water temps remain fair for this time of year; and advisories are in effect.
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Current Conditions:
Early this morning, periods were primarily running 12-13 seconds from 295°.
Most west facing breaks were running waist to at times chest high. South facing spots were mostly knee to waist.
Buoys in the outer waters were running 5'. Nearshore buoys were running 1.3' (south facing) to 2.4' (west facing).
Tide levels are still swinging wide from Friday's New Moon. Today we have a 6' high around 9:00 AM, a -1' low around 5:00 PM, and a 3.5' high around 11:30 PM.
Water temps were running 63° in most of SD and OC yesterday. LA was running 60-63°. In VC, Channel Islands Harbor reported 62° this morning. In SB, USCG and Stearns Wharf readings were unavailable but the channel reported 62° this morning.
Hazardous Condition Warnings: The approaching storm starting Tuesday (see Weather section below) will create numerous hazards in SoCal and the coastal waters including potential for flooding, debris flows, gales in the coastal waters, and more, Tuesday through the rest of the week. The NWS has posted warnings and advisories for SB, VC, and LA here, and OC and SD here.
Water Contact Advisory: Copious rain is on the way, which will increase the risk of contamination from runoff for many days. As a reminder, there is a risk of high bacteria levels for at least 72 hours following any measurable rain event (usually 0.1" or more) during which time water contact should be avoided.
Surf Forecast:
Today (Sunday the 21st) we have meager, light to moderate NW ground swell from this high latitude system in the Gulf of Alaska that was whipped up by strong winds there a few days ago (model from NOAA OPC):
This swell should linger at waist to chest Monday the 22nd before backing off Tuesday the 23rd to waist high.
Wednesday the 24th should see WSW wind swell build as a hazardous storm bears down on SoCal. All models have stayed the course since last week's runs with this hefty trough of low pressure pushing south to SoCal, packed with an abundance of lows that'll bring copious rain, strong winds, and heavy surf to SoCal (model by NOAA MAG):
Bending the jetstream (green) south past SoCal's latitude means wind-driven rain will push into SoCal, resulting in heavy rain amounts. I'll get to all of that in the Weather section below. As for swell, this should initially bring light to WSW wind swell Wednesday the 24th and Thursday the 25th as strong winds blow into SoCal from the WSW (model by UQAM):
I popped a white box over SoCal where we can see 25-30 mph winds (yellow areas) blowing just off the coast (with higher gusts), with slightly lighter winds at the coast (see Wind section below). Much stronger winds will blow off NorCal and CCal with those red areas representing 40-50 mph sustained winds (with higher gusts). This should result in initially chest high, sloppy WSW wind swell along most of SoCal Wednesday the 24th, increasing to upwards of head high Thursday the 25th. But something much bigger should come ashore shortly after.
Friday the 26th should see a significant increase in NW ground swell as the 4-day models continue to show a robust fetch forming just 600 nautical miles from SoCal with impressive seas, kicked up in the wake of the windiest portion of the storm (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
At the low end, the 20' seas would produce sets running 2-3' overhead at west facing breaks Friday the 26th. The upper end of 25' would produce DOH waves. Swell should make a direct hit on SoCal from 270° with periods 14-15 seconds. Winds should weaken Friday and rain not as steady. So while that may seem to hint at session potential Friday, bacteria contamination from rain runoff is inevitable and there'll likely be plenty of lump and bump from the prior days' winds.
Saturday the 27th should see this swell run head high to a foot or two overhead at west facing breaks, which may see a break in weather and winds, but water contamination would very likely be high.
Sunday the 28th should see this swell back off to chest high, and then waist high by Monday the 29th, potentially smaller Tuesday the 30th.
Wednesday the 31st into Thursday the 1st might get a glancing blow of swell from this system that'd dive south from the Aleutians about six days from now (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
That holds potential for chest max sets at west facing breaks but inconsistent with long lulls between sets and few waves per set. Angle would be about 305° and periods 15 seconds. Some models also hint at additional wind swell around this time. This needs more monitoring, but as long as I have your support then I can continue watching the Pacific to keep this report going and keep you posted.
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Here's a brief look at how the next few days are breaking down so far:
Monday the 22nd looks about waist to chest high at west facing breaks.
Tuesday the 23rd looks about waist high at west facing breaks.
Wednesday the 24th should see sloppy chest high WSW wind swell at many breaks.
Thursday the 25th should see sloppy chest to at times head high WSW wind swell at many breaks.
Friday the 26th is expected to run at least 2-3' overhead at west facing breaks. Some models show DOH sets. I'll confirm this in my Tuesday report.
Saturday the 27th, so far, looks about head high+ at west facing breaks.
Sunday the 28th, so far, is expected to run chest high at west facing breaks.
Monday the 29th, so far, looks about waist to chest high at west facing breaks.
Tuesday the 30th, so far, looks about waist high at west facing breaks.
Weather Outlook:
Today (Sunday the 21st) the atmosphere across our region — and well into the Pacific — is heavily laden with moisture, priming the pump for a very wet storm headed our way. Marine layer this morning may be tough to burn off and high clouds should stream in later today, making today rather cloudy at the coast no matter how you slice it. Max beach temps should run in the low 60s.
Tuesday the 23rd should start out cloudy as this large, broad trough of low pressure pushes south, housing numerous stormy lows. Here's that model again to save you from scrolling (model by NOAA MAG):
With the jetstream (green) diving so far to the south before the trough enters SoCal, this storm will cause orographic enhancement — driving moisture into SoCal that'll pile up against the mountains, creating a thick ball of moisture from the mountains to the coast. That's just one factor favoring high rain amounts. Another is that this storm is unique as it doesn't exactly smack of "atmospheric river", but there is plenty of moisture for the trough's back-to-back lows to tap into, which we can see on this model this morning (model from ECMWF):
Normally, atmospheric rivers have well-formed plumes that extend to Hawaii (or beyond). In this case, that plume — while present this morning from the PNW's non-stop storms — should break apart before this storm reaches SoCal. There'd still be a moisture plume on the south side of the trough for the lows to tap into. But the main factor for rain from this storm is that it's not from just one low, but many. This will make rain "bursty" in nature, as low after low comes ashore, each tapping into a little less moisture than the last. However, that initially well-formed plume, with a southerly storm entrance, coupled with high winds, should bring a very heavy band of rain into SoCal initially, with lighter rain that'd fall off and on for a few days after. Taking all of this into account, here's how I'm calling it today — first day-to-day, then totals.
Tuesday the 23rd should start out cloudy with an initially light to moderate rain band passing through SoCal, mostly from LA north, by 8:00 PM. Rain should then spread south overnight into OC, reaching SD before dawn Wednesday the 24th.
Wednesday the 24th should see a heavy band of rain across SB and VC well before dawn, with the heaviest rain falling shortly after sunrise. Very heavy rain with high rain-rates should last up to 6 hours. That band should reach LA by 7:00 AM Wednesday, and then mid to late AM in OC and SD. After that heavy band passes, light rain should continue for quite a while. Clearing is expected in SB late afternoon and early evening in VC; however, sporadic cells and/or drizzle should be expected for the entire day and evening as the atmosphere will be very saturated for a while. In fact, light rain looks more continuous with little letup from LA south. Beach max temps should stay in the low 60s Wednesday.
Thursday the 25th sees the next round of rain from the next low swinging into SoCal from the broad trough. This looks lighter for rain amounts (as the plume breaks apart) but rain should start everywhere along the coast (and well into the valleys) before or right around dawn. Light rain should fall most of the day from LA north. OC and SD will likely see clearing by early to mid afternoon. Beach max temps should stay in the low 60s.
Friday the 26th is looking at light, spotty rain, mostly from LA north. Beach max temps should run in the low 60s.
Saturday the 27th could see another hefty band of rain pass through SB and VC, possibly LA too. That rain could travel south to OC and SD shortly after, but models are split on that. Beach max temps should run in the low 60s.
Sunday the 28th is a wild card right now. Many models show clearing, but the GFS brings a cut-off low into SoCal from the southwest, which could bring more rain. Monday the 29th and Tuesday the 30th are up in the air too as some models show cut-off lows spinning around SoCal. But even the ensembles show dry weather by Tuesday the 30th — temporarily.
As for rain totals: From Tuesday the 23rd through Saturday the 27th, the ECMWF model is the most bullish with 4-6" of rain along all five coastal counties of SoCal, with upwards of 10" in the foothills and mountain slopes of VC and LA. The GFS shows 3-5" of rain in SB and VC, about 3-4" in LA, and 2-3" in OC and SD.
Wednesday the 31st could be the start of a high-pressure comeback but question marks remain. Ensemble models show chances of rain starting Thursday the 1st with off and on rain for a few days. However, extended long range ensembles tend to overdo it as they take into account even the most bizarre, outlier-case model runs. Either way, I'm on it...I'll keep you posted.
Wind Outlook:
Winds
at 6:00 AM were light and variable most everywhere with a slight offshore element. Afternoon onshores should run 8-12 mph.
Monday the 22nd should see AM light and variables but with an onshore element and afternoon onshores 8-12 mph.
Tuesday the 23rd is when stormy winds start. Early AM hours should see southerlies to 10 mph, reaching 15 mph by noon, and then 20-25 mph in the afternoon with gusts to 30 mph likely.
Wednesday the 24th should see southerly winds around 15-20 mph most of the day, even at dawn, with gusts to 25 mph.
Thursday the 25th should see WSW winds 10-15 mph for a good part of the day with gusts to 20 mph by noon and during the afternoon, calming in the evening.
Friday the 26th should see light onshores, mostly from the SSW for a good part of the day 8-12 mph.
Saturday the 27th, so far, is looking at light AM onshores 4-8 mph, shifting offshore later in the day to 10 mph.
Sunday the 28th may see offshore winds most of the day, but models are widely split on this. I'll have more in my upcoming reports this week.
Until my next report (Tuesday), take care, be safe, and smile in the lineup!
