SoCal Forecast
Updated most Sundays, Tuesdays, and Thursdays
Thursday 3/12/26 6:05 AM
By Nathan Cool
Surf Charts for SoCal
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At a glance:
Today (Thursday the 12th) we have a good deal of southern hemisphere ground swell in SoCal. Another southern hemi swell is due Sunday the 15th into Monday the 16th. Strong NW wind swell is becoming possible for the weekend of the 21st. Lighter swells are being tracked shortly after. And news today is signaling upcoming, frequent swell activity on the seasonal long range. Condition-wise: no rain in sight; winds stay moderate; tide levels swing wider by early next week; and water temps are fair.
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Current Conditions:
Early this morning, periods were primarily running 18 seconds from 185° and 13 seconds from 310°.
Most south facing breaks were running upwards of head high. Direct west facing breaks were about chest max.
Buoys in the outer waters were running 7'. Nearshore buoys were averaging 2.7'.
Tide levels are fair now but will swing wider this weekend into next week as we approach a New Moon Wednesday the 18th. Today we have a 4' high around 5:00 AM, a 0.5' low around 1:00 PM, and a 3' high around 8:30 PM.
Water temps were running 60-62° around most of SD and OC. LA was running 58-60°. In VC, Channel Islands Harbor reported 63° last night. In SB, Stearns Wharf reported 60° this morning.
Surf Forecast:
Today (Thursday the 12th) we're seeing the peak of the southern hemisphere ground swell from this system you might recall from earlier reports that peaked south of Pitcairn about a week ago (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
That swell is at its peak today and should fade to chest+ at south facing breaks Friday the 13th, and then waist to chest Saturday the 14th. Meanwhile, west facing breaks are seeing some wrap from the southern hemi, along with ever-present, seasonal wind swell, and intermittent ground swell from this storm that broke off Japan late last week (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
NW swell from that WestPac system should peak in SoCal Friday the 13th with sporadic chest max waves at west facing breaks. It looks like we'll also see a slight uptick in NW wind swell Friday from a fetch off NorCal that'd bring waist to chest high waves to west facing breaks. That wind swell should peak at chest max at west facing breaks Saturday the 14th as south facing breaks run waist to chest from the fading southern hemi.
Sunday the 15th (building day) into Monday the 16th (peak) should see the next southern hemi ground swell from this system that grew near New Zealand and eventually took an ideal turn to the northeast as it traveled east (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
Peaking with 35' seas on that course works out to sets running chest to head high at most south facing breaks by Monday the 16th. Sunday the 15th looks about chest high with fewer pluses as this swell fills in. This swell should linger at chest to head high Tuesday the 17th, then drop to chest high Wednesday the 18th and waist to chest Thursday the 19th. Swell should be angled from 190° with periods 18 seconds.
Sunday the 15th, as southern hemisphere ground swell fills in, we should also see lesser NW swell from this system that's been moving away from our swell window (model by NOAA MAG):
Almost all of that system's swell is being sent west. Sporadic waves should arrive in SoCal from this late Saturday the 14th into Sunday the 15th running waist high at west facing breaks, angled from 295° and periods 16 seconds. This though will likely be overshadowed by southern hemi wrap into west facing breaks.
Friday the 20th into Saturday the 21st should see light to moderate southern hemisphere ground swell from this system near New Zealand (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
That should produce sets running waist to chest high at south facing breaks by Saturday the 21st, angled from 205° with periods 15-16 seconds. However, it may go unnoticed as we could see strong NW wind swell Saturday the 21st from winds off the coast that could produce this robust fetch of 18' seas near the Channel Islands (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
That's still a ways out on the long range but models have been consistent with this the past few days. So far, this looks like a head high+ wind swell for west facing breaks Saturday the 21st and Sunday the 22nd, angled from 300°+ with periods 10-11 seconds. I'll see how this progresses over the next few days.
Wednesday the 25th could see a light NW-SW combo from distant storms. The NW would be from this WestPac system (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
That's about 3,700 nautical miles away and wouldn't travel far. Early numbers put this at chest max with sporadic swell at west facing spots, angled from 295° and periods 15 seconds. The SW portion of the combo would be from this system near New Zealand (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
That's about 6,000 nautical miles away on a terrible course for SoCal swell. That too would result in sporadic swell. Size would run waist max at south facing breaks, angled from 215° and periods 16 seconds. So all told, Wednesday the 15th could run chest high at west facing breaks and waist high at south facing spots, but with inconsistent sets and long wait times.
Looking out further on the long range, the Pacific is expected to transition toward El Niño in a few months, preceded by a neutral-Niño we're entering now (image from NOAA CPC)
We're approaching the second bar of March, April, May (MAM) when neutral-Niño should be dominant, saying goodbye to La Niña. And by summer we should be officially in El Niño, even more so by the winter of 2026-27.This would make for an active summer, fall and winter for SoCal surf (more on that here). As for how strong this approaching El Niño would be, the highest likelihood right now (80%) is for a moderate Niño with anomalous SSTs measuring 0.5°C. As you may know, the strongest Niños I talk about in Surf, Flood, Fire & Mud were higher, but when the strength is closer to a neutral-Niño then things can be exceptionally active for waves and weather.
As it stands right now, we'll likely see a slightly more active hurricane season in the Pacific this summer, more so from August through September. Since we wouldn't be in a full-blown El Niño this summer, southern hemisphere swell activity should remain moderate to high as summer gets underway. Strong El Niños tend to strengthen the jetstream around Antarctica in the summer, but when El Niño is weak to neutral, then southern hemi storms can drift north to direct swell at SoCal. We're already seeing good-sized southern hemi swell now, so that trend has high potential to continue this summer. For the fall into the winter, El Niño's lowering of the North Pacific jetstream's latitude results in stronger NW ground swells with a higher potential for rain once we get into January-February 2027.
In any event, this all needs more monitoring over the coming months. But as long as I have your support, then I can continue watching the Pacific to keep this report going and keep you posted.
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Here's a brief look at how the next few days are breaking down so far:
Friday the 13th looks about chest high at south facing breaks with occasional pluses at standouts. West facing breaks should run waist high with occasional chest high pluses.
Saturday the 14th looks about waist to chest high at south facing breaks. West facing breaks look about waist high.
Sunday the 15th is expected to run chest high at south facing breaks (with swell building during the day) and waist high at west facing spots.
Monday the 16th should run chest to head high at south facing breaks and waist to chest at west facing spots.
Tuesday the 17th is expected to run chest to head high at south facing breaks and waist to chest at west facing spots.
Wednesday the 18th looks about chest high at south facing breaks and waist high at west facing breaks.
Thursday the 19th looks about waist to chest at south facing breaks and knee to waist at west facing breaks.
Friday the 20th, so far, looks about waist high at south facing breaks, smaller at west facing spots.
Saturday the 21st, so far, is looking at NW wind swell with head high+ potential at west facing breaks.
Sunday the 22nd, so far, looks similar.
Monday the 23rd, so far, is looking at chest high wind swell at west facing breaks.
Tuesday the 24th, so far, looks about waist high at west facing breaks.
Wednesday the 25th, so far, is looking at a sporadic swell combo of chest max waves at west facing breaks and waist high at south facing breaks. Swell would be intermittent with long wait times.
Weather Outlook:
Today (Thursday the 12th) a very strong, 1033mb surface high pressure system is covering most of California, aligning with a fairly strong 590dm upper-level high over SoCal. This is drawing a warm air mass north from Mexico/Baja, making for round 1 of an inland heatwave for SoCal. At the coast, this should keep skies clear with warm temps today and Friday the 13th.
The highs temporarily weaken this weekend, bringing back some AM marine layer with timely burn-offs, followed by high clouds drifting overhead. Another high pressure setup builds Monday the 16th, but weaker with a 1026mb surface high, but still about 590dm up above. This is still a decently strong high, but it shouldn't result in as much offshore flow so AM marine layer may form but burn-off quickly with decently warm beach temps early next week. High pressure should then weaken by the end of next week for a return of an onshore flow.
Taking all of this into account, here's how I'm calling SoCal beach weather for the next few days:
Today (Thursday the 12th) looks clear with max beach temps around 80°.
Friday the 13th looks clear with max beach temps around 80°.
Saturday the 14th will likely see morning marine layer burning off by midmorning, yielding to partly cloudy skies. Beach max temps should reach the mid 70s.
Sunday the 15th should see morning marine layer burning off by mid to late morning. Beach max temps should reach the low 70s.
Monday the 16th should see morning marine layer burn-off mid to late morning and beach max temps in the mid 70s.
Tuesday the 17th should see less AM marine layer for a quicker burn-off and max beach temps in the upper 70s.
Wednesday the 18th should see less AM marine layer for a quicker burn-off and max beach temps in the mid 70s.
Thursday the 19th, so far, is expected to see AM marine layer with a midmorning burn-off and max beach temps in the mid 70s.
Friday the 20th, so far, is expected to see see AM marine layer with a mid to late AM burn-off and max beach temps in the low 70s.
Wind Outlook:
Winds
at 6:00 AM were light and variable most everywhere along the SoCal coast. Afternoon onshores should run 15 mph.
Friday the 13th should see AM offshores 5-10 mph and afternoon onshores to 5-10 mph.
Saturday the 14th should see AM offshores around 5 mph and afternoon onshores to 10 mph.
Sunday the 15th should AM light and variables and afternoon onshores to 10 mph.
Monday the 16th should see AM light and variables and afternoon onshores to 10 mph.
Until my next report (Sunday), take care, be safe, and smile in the lineup!
