SoCal Forecast
Updated most Sundays, Tuesdays, and Thursdays
Tuesday 10/21/25 6:00 AM
By Nathan Cool
Surf Charts for SoCal
Rincon | Ventura, C-St. | County Line | Malibu | Hermosa | Huntington BeachTrestles | Old Mans | Oceanside | Beacons | Sunset Cliffs
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At a glance:
Today (Tuesday the 21st) we have mostly moderate NW ground swell in SoCal. NW swell increases Wednesday the 22nd, but spotty. A decent sized NW ground swell builds Friday the 24th into Saturday the 25th. More NW swell is being watched for Sunday the 26th, along with NW wind swell that may build then into Monday the 27th. Another round of wind swell is being watched for the second half of next week. Moderate southern hemisphere ground swell is becoming likely for the end of next week. And more NW ground swells are being tracked for the 3rd and 6th. Condition-wise: weather and winds shift between on- and off-shore; winds problematic at times for some areas; tide levels are swinging wide; and water temps are fair.
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Current Conditions:
Early this morning, periods were primarily running 12-15 seconds from 300-315°.
Most west facing breaks were running chest high with pluses at times at standouts. Direct south facing spots were mostly waist high.
Buoys in the outer waters are running upwards of 11'. Nearshore buoys were running 1.7' (south facing) to 3.5' (west facing).
Tide levels are swinging wide from a New Moon today. Today we have a 6' high around 9:30 AM, a 0.1' low around 4:00 PM, and a 4' high around 10:00 PM.
Water temps were running 62-65° in most of SD yesterday. OC and LA were about 64-67°. in VC, Channel Islands Harbor reported 63° overnight. SB Harbor reported 65° last night.
Surf Forecast:
Today (Tuesday the 21st) we're seeing NW ground swell from this system that peaked a couple days ago (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
We're also seeing spotty NW energy from Typhoon Nakri. While both should run mostly chest high today, forerunners should come ashore throughout the day, signaling the next NW swell.
Wednesday the 22nd should see an increase in NW ground swell from this bigger yet poor positioned system that recently peaked in the Gulf of Alaska (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
That purple blob represents seas in the 40-45' range but the course was terrible, sending the bulk of its swell into the Gulf's high latitudes. This means spotty, inconsistent swell for SoCal with few waves per set and long lulls between sets. But when the waves do arrive, they should run head high at many west facing breaks with possible pluses to 2' overhead at standouts, angled from 305° with periods 20 seconds. But those bigger waves look highly inconsistent with chest high being the average wave height Wednesday from the preceding swells. This swell should linger to a lesser degree Thursday the 23rd at head high max, staying inconsistent. As this and the preceding swells fade Friday the 24th, more swell will be approaching SoCal.
Friday the 24th (late) into Saturday the 25th should see NW ground swell from this Aleutian system that peaked this morning (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
That has a much better course, housing decent sized seas in the 30' range. Running the numbers this morning, that works out to chest to head high sets at west facing breaks Saturday the 25th, angled from 305° and periods 16 seconds. As that swell lingers Sunday the 26th, we should see a secondary injection of NW swell from this system on the 2-day models approaching the west coast (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
This should also produce chest to head high sets at west facing breaks Sunday the 26th, increasing consistency from its proximity. Swell should remain angled from about 300-305° with periods 16 seconds. There's also a chance for wind swell to enter the mix Sunday the 26th from a trough of low pressure that'd push south toward SoCal. Models though are not aligned well-enough on that trough to call its winds right now. In any event, the NW ground swell should run at least chest high Monday the 27th and then smaller Tuesday the 28th.
Tuesday the 28th and Wednesday the 29th look like small days in the SoCal surf zone as NW energy remains low and a minor flow of southern hemi comes ashore. Most all breaks are looking at waist max waves both days.
Thursday the 30th into Friday the 31st may see another round of NW wind swell, but while that would be from close-proximity activity on the extended long range models, the shorter-range southern hemi models show something easier to call for the last day of the month.
Friday the 31st will likely see southern hemi ground swell from this system near New Zealand on the 3-day models (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
That's expected to whip up 45' seas but the course isn't favorable. Still, we'd get enough of a glancing blow of swell energy to produce chest to head high waves at south facing breaks Friday the 31st, but sets would be highly inconsistent with very few waves per set and long lulls between sets. Swell would be angled from 210° with periods initially 22 seconds.
Monday the 3rd could see the next NW ground swell as the 10-day models are banding about various ideas on what could become a very large wave-producing storm breaking off the Aleutians, maintaining strength while entering the Gulf of Alaska (model from NOAA OPC):
That 90th percentile model is leaning towards 35' seas and the max ensembles call for a bullish 45'. Mean models are much lower. But what all models have in common right now is how far that system would travel into the Gulf of Alaska, getting relatively close to the California coast. It's still way out on the long range, but it earned an optimistic red pin in my charts — for now.
Thursday the 6th has a chance of seeing the next NW ground swell from this large low (red circle) that'd whip up super strong winds in the Gulf of Alaska (model by NOAA MAG):
That blue circle identifies a strong ridge of high pressure, which, given this time of year, signals potential for a strong Santa Ana for the 2nd-4th timeframe. But both the NW swell for the 6th and the offshore wind event preceding it are so far out on the long range (14 days) that it makes them yellow pins in my charts for now. Still, this is a very familiar pattern for this time of year with both titans of atmospheric pressure driven by the jetstream, giving them predictable guidance. I'll need more time to see how models deal with this, but as long as I have your support then I can continue watching the Pacific to keep this report going and keep you posted.
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Here's how the day-to-day is breaking down so far:
Wednesday the 22nd should run chest high on most sets at west facing breaks but with some waves running head high to 2' overhead at times.
Thursday the 23rd should run chest high on most sets at west facing breaks but with some waves running head high at times.
Friday the 24th should start out at chest max in the early morning at west facing breaks but with swell building later in the day.
Saturday the 25th is expected to run chest to head high at west facing breaks.
Sunday the 26th is expected to run chest to head high at west facing breaks.
Monday the 27th, so far, looks about chest high at west facing spots; however, there is a chance for bigger NW wind swell.
Tuesday the 28th, so far, looks about waist max at most breaks; however, wind swell needs more monitoring
Wednesday the 29th, so far, looks about waist max at most breaks.
Thursday the 30th, so far, is being watched for another round of NW wind swell; otherwise, swell would be minimal.
Friday the 31st, so far, is looking at inconsistent chest to head high waves at south facing breaks, but west facing breaks are more in question depending on potential wind swell development.
Weather Outlook:
Today (Tuesday the 21st) we can see two weather features from space that'll affect our weather later today, and in a few more days (image from NOAA GOES):
The red arrow on the bottom is pointing to that cut-off low that's been approaching the coast, which is now starting to make its way into SoCal, but more so tonight. This stirred up an onshore flow with morning marine layer today (burn-off later this morning), keeping beach max temps cooler in the mid 60s.
Tonight into early Wednesday morning (22nd), the onshore flow should gain strength, stirring up a thicker marine layer Wednesday morning with drizzle likely at the coast. Max beach temps should hover in the low to mid 60s Wednesday. Winds are looking fairly strong in many spots Wednesday, and I'll break that down in the Wind section below.
Thursday the 23rd should see the cut-off low start to make its way east as the barest of high pressure ridges noses north into SoCal. Morning marine layer is expected with burn-off by noon and max beach temps in the mid 60s.
Friday the 24th is when that second weather feature above (yellow arrow) affects the weather across California. That yellow arrow is pointing to a large area of low pressure, and in front/east of it we can see very thick and stormy clouds (green, nasty looking stuff) that will pound the PNW with rain late Friday the 24th into the weekend. For SoCal, Friday the 24th will be an in-between day with mild weather: little to no AM marine layer with max beach temps in the upper 60s.
Saturday the 25th then sees the effects of the Aleutian-to-PNW low. The onshore flow should increase, creating morning marine layer with a late AM burn-off yielding to high clouds spinning off the PNW storm. No rain is expected in SoCal, but max beach temps should dip a bit to the mid to upper 60s, and onshore winds will be an issue for many spots.
Sunday the 26th is looking at a hefty marine layer deck with burn-off by early afternoon, and then scattered high clouds the rest of the day. Max beach temps should reach the upper 60s.
Monday the 27th into Tuesday the 28th could see a mild Santa Ana — typical for this time of year once Pacific lows pass to the east of California. Also typical for a seasonal Santa Ana, cold air should be deposited in the Great Basin; however, that cold air mass looks rather small right now. So taking all things into account, it's adding up to a mild Santa Ana with offshore breezes at the coast that'd keep skies mostly clear, while putting max beach temps into the upper 60s Monday the 27th and Tuesday the 28th.
And then, in true fall fashion, another Pacific low would make its way to the west coast by Thursday the 30th that could once again increase the onshore flow, onshore winds, marine layer, and cool temps. But once that low passes a couple days later, we could see a stronger Santa Ana from that pattern mentioned above for NW swell potential, shown here again to save you from scrolling (model by NOAA MAG):
The blue circle encompasses a strong area of high pressure, which could make for one heck of a Santa Ana. But at this point I'm venturing too far into long-range land, where the forecast dissolves into a hazy crystal ball. But I'm on it, and with your support, I'll keep you posted.
Wind Outlook:
Winds
at 6:00 AM were calm in most spots. Onshores should pick up by noon and run 10-15 mph in the afternoon.
Wednesday the 22nd should see AM light and variables with an onshore element. Onshores should pick up by noon 15-20 mph from LA north by early to mid afternoon, but top out at 15 mph farther south. BTW, winds in SB from Isla Vista west could reach 30-40 mph by late afternoon, continuing through the evening.
Thursday the 23rd should see AM light and variables and afternoon onshores 8-12 mph. Sundowner winds are likely in the evening in the wind-prone spots of SB.
Friday the 24th should see AM light and variables and afternoon onshores 8-12 mph.
Saturday the 25th, more so Sunday the 26th, could see stronger onshore winds. I'll have more on that in my next report.
Until my next report (Thursday), take care, be safe, and smile in the lineup!
