SoCal Forecast
Updated most Sundays, Tuesdays, and Thursdays
Tuesday 12/2/25 6:10 AM
By Nathan Cool
Surf Charts for SoCal
Rincon | Ventura, C-St. | County Line | Malibu | Hermosa | Huntington BeachTrestles | Old Mans | Oceanside | Beacons | Sunset Cliffs
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At a glance:
Today (Tuesday the 2nd) long-period NW ground swell is filling into SoCal and will increase later this morning. After this fades in a couple days we'll hit a small spell for a while, but decent sized NW ground swell is being watched for the 11th. Condition-wise: heavy onshore flow precedes prolonged offshore conditions; the tide is swinging exceptionally wide; water temps are fair for this time of year; and advisories are in effect.
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Current Conditions:
Early this morning, periods were primarily running 18 seconds from 290° with 20-second periods coming through at times.
Most west facing breaks were running chest to head high on the average sets with occasional overhead pluses. Direct south facing breaks can expect chest high wrap. Size should increase throughout the morning.
Buoys in the outer waters were running 8'. Nearshore buoys were about 2.5'.
Tide levels are swinging very wide as we approach a Full Moon Thursday the 4th. By then, early AM highs will be about 7.5' and mid afternoon lows will exceed -1.5', making a tidal depth difference of about Δ9'. That kind of swing within a 7-hour span means changing conditions hour by hour, moving the line-up, and how speedy or mushy waves become. For today, we have a 6.5' high around 6:30 AM, a -1' low around 1:30 PM, and a 4' high around 8:00 PM.
Water temps were averaging 64° around most of SD, OC, and LA yesterday. In VC, Channel Islands Harbor reported 61° overnight. In SB, Stearns Wharf reported 63° this morning.
Hazardous Condition Warnings: Today's swell will increase the risk of rip currents and beach hazards including rogue, sneaker waves that could rapidly rush up beaches and crash over jetties. The NWS has posted warnings and advisories for SB, VC, LA here and OC and SD here.
Surf Forecast:
Today (Tuesday the 2nd) NW swell is filling in from this strong storm that peaked late last week, kicking up very strong winds when nearing the Aleutian-Hawaiian longitude to create a wave-worthy fetch (model from NOAA OPC):
That system didn't last long, quickly fading once passing that position. Its distance should result in less consistent swell with notable lulls between sets. ETA for the main band of swell is around midmorning today. When this swell peaks, size should run a couple feet overhead at west facing breaks, angled from 290° and periods 18 seconds. However, a problem we're facing today and the next couple days is a radically deep high tide early in the morning, which could shut down (or slow down) many spots, especially the reefs and points. Tidal depth, and subsequent conditions, will change dramatically hour by hour.
Wednesday the 3rd should still see plenty of this swell with size head high to a couple feet overhead at west facing breaks. Thursday the 4th should drop to chest to head high, and then chest max Friday the 5th.
Saturday the 6th through Wednesday the 10th look like much smaller days in the SoCal surf zone. Minor swaths of swell from both hemispheres should keep most breaks in waist high waves, smaller though at south facing spots most days.
Thursday the 11th could see decent sized NW ground swell as the 6-day models now favor this system forming in the Gulf of Alaska (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
With 30' seas from that position, west facing breaks would see head high sets Thursday the 11th, angled from 300° with periods 16 seconds. This is still out on the long range so it needs more monitoring.
Next up is a potential southern hemisphere ground swell for Thursday the 18th from this system swinging north out of the Southern Ocean (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
Based on the 7-day models, that could produce waist to chest high waves at south facing breaks, angled from 200° with periods 16 seconds. Normally that'd go unnoticed as NW wrap from bigger NorthPac swells would overshadow that this time of year. But there are many days on the long range right now that look lackluster for NW swell, so for now it's one worth mentioning.
And last but not least, I updated the donation progress report yesterday. We're still quite a ways from meeting the 2025 goal, and with the year rapidly coming to close, now's the time for the end-of-the-year push. If you value this report and have not yet donated this year, please consider making a contribution today to ensure this report can continue. Remember, I'm not the one keeping this report alive — you are. Thank you for your support! I literally couldn't do this without you.
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Here's a brief look at how the next few days are breaking down so far:
Wednesday the 3rd is expected to run head high to a couple feet overhead at west facing breaks (when the tide is right).
Thursday the 4th looks about chest to head high at west facing breaks.
Friday the 5th looks about chest max at west facing breaks.
Saturday the 6th looks about waist at west facing breaks.
Sunday the 7th looks about waist high at west facing breaks.
Monday the 8th looks about waist high at west facing breaks.
Tuesday the 9th, so far, looks about waist high at west facing breaks.
Wednesday the 10th, so far, could see head high ground swell at west facing breaks.
Thursday the 11th, so far, is looking at chest to head high ground swell at west facing breaks.
Friday the 12th, so far, looks about chest max at west facing breaks.
Saturday the 13th, so far, looks smaller.
Weather Outlook:
Today (Tuesday the 2nd) the Santa Ana is weakening and there's marine layer at many spots, although clearer around the wind-prone areas of VC. Marine layer should be gone later this morning, and then high clouds drift overhead at times. Beach max temps should top out in the low 60s today.
Wednesday the 3rd sees a trough of low pressure push south, which will affect weather and winds Wednesday and Thursday. Here's a look at this trough (shades of green) when it dives to its lowest point Wednesday afternoon (model by UQAM):
Technically speaking, this is an "inside-slider" low, which makes for NNE wind events. But as you may know, inside-slider lows tend to slide south through the interior of California, not Nevada, Utah, and Arizona, like in this case. This raises a similar point of wind forecast contention like yesterday's Santa Ana. As you might recall, I went with the less bullish — and more realistic — scenario of a weak Santa Ana for the coastal regions yesterday, and indeed that was the case. I'm not back-patting; just noting this approaching trough/wind-event is similarly split across the models and likely overcooked. The biggest difference is on the oddball idea that we'd see an afternoon Santa Ana Wednesday the 3rd, which is almost unheard of (Santa Ana winds tend to be strongest mid to late morning, and again overnight). The NAM model is making that oddball call, but I'm not buying it. Since many other models use NAM data as part of their ensembles, many automated weather forecasts could call for strong winds starting tomorrow afternoon. I'd expect that in the mountains, but nowhere near the coast. I also don't think this will become blustery Thursday the 4th, so I'm keeping the forecast for Wednesday and Thursday milder than other forecasts are calling.
TL;DR: Wednesday the 3rd should see morning marine layer with a midmorning burn-off. High clouds should drift through at times. Beach max temps should reach the mid 60s.
Thursday the 4th should see clear skies with max beach temps in the mid 60s.
Friday the 5th through at least Wednesday the 10th should see high pressure over the region. Some days should be more offshore than others, and there will likely be a warming trend by early next week as high pressure strengthens and becomes more established. So...
Friday the 5th should be clear with beach max temps in the low to mid 60s.
Saturday the 6th should be clear with beach max temps in the low to mid 60s.
Sunday the 7th should be clear with beach max temps in the low to mid 60s.
Monday the 8th should be clear with beach max temps in the mid 60s.
Tuesday the 9th should be clear with beach max temps in the upper 60s.
Wednesday the 10th should be clear with beach max temps near 70°.
And on and on it goes. The next potential trough and chance of precip is Thursday the 18th — by the looks of things today.
Wind Outlook:
Winds
at 6:00 AM were lightly offshore in many spots. Onshores are expected this afternoon to 10 mph
Wednesday the 3rd should see AM light and variables with a slight NNE offshore effect. Winds should pick up from the SE in the afternoon 10-15 mph.
Thursday the 4th should see offshores pickup from the NE by midmorning, maxing out around 10-15 mph at the most wind-prone spots of VC, but about 10 mph max elsewhere. Onshores are expected in the afternoon 8-12 mph.
Friday the 5th is expected to see AM offshores 4-8 mph and afternoon onshores 5-10 mph.
Saturday the 6th, so far, is expected to see AM offshores 4-8 mph and afternoon onshores 5-10 mph.
Sunday the 7th, so far, is expected to see AM offshores 2-5 mph and afternoon onshores 5-10 mph.
Until my next report (Thursday), take care, be safe, and smile in the lineup!
