SoCal Forecast
Updated most Sundays, Tuesdays, and Thursdays
Tuesday 4/21/26 6:00 AM
By Nathan Cool
Surf Charts for SoCal
Rincon | Ventura, C-St. | County Line | Malibu | Hermosa | Huntington BeachTrestles | Old Mans | Oceanside | Beacons | Sunset Cliffs
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At a glance:
Today (Tuesday the 21st) we have a light mix of NW and SW ground swells in SoCal. Both swells increase a bit Wednesday the 22nd. Southerly swell peaks Thursday the 23rd. NW swell from Sinlaku is due Sunday the 26th into Monday the 27th. Minor to moderate southern hemi follows. Moderate NW ground swell is becoming possible for Thursday the 30th. NW wind swell is being watched for late next week. And moderate southern hemi swell is becoming possible on the long range. Condition-wise: rain delayed and downgraded; more rain in the forecast; winds strong at times; tide levels are moderate; and water temps are fair.
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Current Conditions:
Early this morning, periods were primarily running 14 seconds from 310° and 12 seconds from 200°.
Most breaks were running waist high with occasional chest high pluses at standout west facing spots.
Buoys in the outer waters were running 7-9'. Nearshore buoys were averaging 1.8'.
Tide levels are recuperating from the recent swing. Today we have a -1' low around 7:30 AM, a 3' high around 2:45 PM, a 2.5' low around 6:30 PM, and a 5.5' high after midnight.
Water temps were running 64-68° around most of SD and OC. LA was mostly 62-66°. For VC and SB, recent USCG readings were once again unavailable but Stearns Wharf readings were back online, reporting 61° this morning.
Surf Forecast:
Today (Tuesday the 21st) NW ground swell is filling in from this fetch that formed off the PNW a couple days ago (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
That should bring chest high waves to SoCal's west facing breaks by Wednesday the 22nd with swell angled from 305° and periods 14 seconds. But as you may recall from earlier reports this week, that fetch is tied to a low that will bring some precip to SoCal today with winds and wind swell shortly after. This is how it looks this morning, staying just to the north of SoCal (model by NOAA MAG):
Rain is delayed and downgraded today, and I'll break down the weather and winds in those sections below. As for swell, that low should whip up some wind swell for Thursday the 23rd, but that's been downgraded too. This should provide cleaner conditions for the next swell.
Wednesday the 22nd (building day) into Thursday the 23rd (peak day) should see southerly ground swell from this system that broke off Antarctica about nine days ago (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
That should produce chest high sets at SoCal's south facing breaks by Thursday the 23rd, angled from 180-185° and periods 16 seconds. West facing breaks should run waist to chest from diminishing NW ground- and wind-swell on Thursday. All swells should back off Friday the 24th with waist to chest high waves at south facing breaks and waist high at west facing breaks. Saturday the 25th looks about waist max everywhere.
Sunday the 26th (building day) into Monday the 27th should see spotty NW ground swell from what was Super Typhoon Sinlaku, shown here as that storm turned east to send swell our way a couple days ago (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
Running the numbers again this morning works out to chest+ waves at SoCal's west facing breaks by Monday the 27th (building Sunday the 26th); however, that storm was 4,400 nautical miles from SoCal so swell will be inconsistent. Few waves per set and long lulls between sets should be expected. Swell should be angled from 295° with periods 17 seconds initially. Some Aleutian swell should be in the mix around the same time, although that should present as waist high waves in the mix, angled from 310° and periods 14 seconds.
Tuesday the 28th should see this mix of swell back down to about waist high at west facing breaks. Minor Antarctic swell is also due, helping south facing breaks with waist high waves too. Wednesday the 29th will likely be smaller.
Thursday the 30th may see spotty NW ground swell from this high-latitude system crashing into the Aleutians (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
Although housing 30' seas, that's a terrible course for SoCal swell. Working the numbers off the 5-day models works out to inconsistent, spotty, chest max waves at west facing breaks Thursday the 30th, angled from 310° and periods 16 seconds. Distant southern hemi swell from the Tasman Sea is also due Thursday the 30th, which should result in inconsistent waist high waves at south facing breaks, angled from 230° and periods 15 seconds. But there's something else to consider late next week.
Thursday the 30th through the weekend of the 2nd-3rd could see NW wind swell as models show a couple of low pressure systems passing through — or staying just to the north of — SoCal. Some rain could fall, but models are very far apart on that. Models are equally unsure about winds for wind swell, but I popped a yellow pin in my charts this morning and I'll see how it goes.
Monday the 4th may see minor southern hemi ground swell from an Antarctic system south of French Polynesia. It's hardly worth a graphic being just a waist max wave-maker, but it is on the 3-day models so I'll see if anything wave-worthy comes of it and have an update in my Thursday report.
Saturday the 9th or Sunday the 10th has a chance of seeing SW ground swell from this southern hemisphere storm on the 9-day models (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
So far, that holds potential for chest high swell at south facing breaks, angled from 200° and periods 15-16 seconds. But it's so far out on the long range that it's in the medium-confidence category for now.
And lastly, in case you missed it from my last report, I wanted to address the "Super El Niño" you may have heard or read about lately. The recent "if it bleeds it leads" headline hype doesn't tell the full story, favoring clickbait over facts. Yes, we are going to enter El Niño this year. The strength though is undetermined, which we can see here on this graph showing an abundance of model predictions (image from IRI):
A "Super" El Niño (a terrible name given by the media, not climate scientists), would be something over 2°C. But we can see that most models keep it at or below 1.5°C in the 3-month forecasts (MAM = March April May, AMJ = April May June, etc.). The thick green line is the statistical average using past events as a baseline for current readings, which puts the Niño strength below 1°C. The dynamic average, which takes into account more recent changes from short term measurements, tops out at 1.5°C. So if we look at what this means for probability of a strong or weak El Niño, it would look like this (image from NOAA CPC):
During the winter (NDJ = November December January) a "Very Strong" El Niño falls under about a 30% chance, and a weak El Niño is about over 40% chance. So bottom line, much of the media is once again producing industrialized fear with small smatterings of truth that lean toward worst-case, low probability scenarios.
Could this winter be a "Very Strong" El Niño? Possibly, but that's actually a low to medium chance. Even then, it wouldn't mean we'd see catastrophic rain or epic swells, which is something I explain further in my book Surf, Flood, Fire & Mud. It's too early to call, and far too early to sound the alarm.
In any event, there's a lot to monitor across the Pacific — not just seasonally, but for the short term as well. But as long as I have your support then I can continue watching the Pacific to keep you posted. Please remember this report is funded by reader donations and your help is essential right now to keep this report alive (more on that here).
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Here's a brief look at how the next few days are breaking down so far:
Wednesday the 22nd looks about chest high at west facing breaks and waist high at south facing spots.
Thursday the 23rd should run chest high at south facing breaks and waist to chest at west facing spots.
Friday the 24th looks about waist to chest at south facing breaks and waist high at west facing spots.
Saturday the 25th looks about waist high at most spots.
Sunday the 26th is expected to run waist high at most breaks with occasional chest high pluses at standout west facing breaks.
Monday the 27th looks about chest+ at west facing breaks but with highly inconsistent sets with few waves per set and long lulls between sets. South facing spots look about waist high.
Tuesday the 28th, so far, looks about waist high at most breaks but with occasional chest high pluses at west facing spots.
Wednesday the 29th, so far, looks about waist max everywhere.
Thursday the 30th, so far, holds potential for NW ground swell...more on that in my next report.
Weather Outlook:
This morning (Tuesday the 21st) rain has been slowly moving south, crossing SB near dawn and parts of VC midmorning. This storm is moving slow, staying farther north, and is moisture starved. So when rain does arrive, don't expect much. Most of SoCal is looking at trace to 0.1" max, but with higher amounts up to about 0.5" across SB. This storm will move out quickly, but lingering moisture should provide a fair amount of high clouds Wednesday the 22nd with better clearing Thursday the 23rd and Friday the 24th.
Question marks then enter the forecast for this weekend (25th-26th) and early next week as models are in fair agreement on a low pressure trough sagging into SoCal by Saturday the 25th, sending a few pulses of low pressure through SoCal for a few days. Most models show minimal rain (trace+) this weekend, but timing is all over the place. I'm sure that'll settle into consensus by the time I do my Thursday report.
The other weather feature to note is potential for rain Wednesday the 29th. The GFS model is the most bullish, swinging a low into SoCal from the south to bring high rain amounts. That seems like an outlier today as all other models show very light rain. I'll have an update on that in my Thursday report as well.
Taking all of this into account, here's how I'm calling SoCal beach weather for the next few days:
Today (Tuesday the 21st) should see light rain by the afternoon in VC and LA, and sometime this afternoon farther south. Rain amounts look very light, except in SB. Beach max temps should reach the mid 60s.
Wednesday the 22nd should see mostly cloudy skies in the morning with better clearing in the afternoon. Beach max temps should reach the mid 60s.
Thursday the 23rd should see partly cloudy skies with more sunshine than Wednesday. Beach max temps should reach the upper 60s.
Friday the 24th should see partly cloudy skies with beach max temps in the mid 60s.
Saturday the 25th should see mostly cloudy skies. Light rain is becoming likely, but timing differs greatly across the models. I'll know more about the weekend weather when I do my next report Thursday.
Wind Outlook:
Winds
at 6:00 AM were light and variable most everywhere with an easterly element. Winds should become southerly later this morning and increase to 15 mph by noon. Winds may increase from the west this evening to at least 15 mph.
Wednesday the 22nd we're looking at onshores early to 10 mph, increasing to 15 mph before noon, and then 20+ mph by mid afternoon.
Thursday the 23rd should see AM light and variables with afternoon onshores to 15 mph.
Friday the 24th should see AM light and variables with afternoon onshores to 15 mph, stronger at times mid afternoon with gusts to 20 mph.
Saturday the 25th, so far, is expected to see early AM onshores 4-8 mph and afternoon onshores 15-20 mph.
Until my next report (Thursday), take care, be safe, and smile in the lineup!
