SoCal Forecast
Updated most Sundays, Tuesdays, and Thursdays
Thursday 2/19/26 6:30 AM
By Nathan Cool
Surf Charts for SoCal
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At a glance:
Today (Thursday the 19th) we have a good deal of wind swell in SoCal and another boost is due by tomorrow. A mix of wind swell and ground swell is being watched for early next week. And light to moderate swells are being watched for late next week. Condition-wise: rain today but questionable next week; winds problematic at times; the tide is swinging wide; water temps have dipped; and advisories are in effect.
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Current Conditions:
Early this morning, periods were running a wide range from 6-13 seconds from 250-300°.
Most west facing breaks were running chest to head high. Direct south facing spots were mostly waist to chest high from the wrap.
Buoys in the outer waters were running 9'. Nearshore buoys were running 2.7' (south facing) to 4.4' (west facing).
Tide levels are still swinging wide from the recent New Moon but they will relax over the next couple days. Today we have a 1' low around 4:00 AM, a 5' high around 10:00 AM, a -0.2' low around 4:30 PM, and a 5' high around 11:00 PM.
Water temps were running 58-61° in most of SD and OC yesterday. LA was hovering around 60°. In VC and SB, USCG readings have been unavailable but Stearns Wharf in SB reported 58° this morning and the SB Channel is running 58° this morning.
Hazardous Condition Warnings: Another round of rain today will continue to create storm-related hazards. Although not as severe as recent storms, gales are possible in the outer waters, high winds are likely at many beaches, and rain could cause road flooding. The NWS has issued advisories as well for SB, VC, and LA here, and OC and SD here.
Water Contact Advisory: Rain has increased the risk of contamination from runoff. As a reminder, there is a risk of high bacteria levels for at least 72 hours following any measurable rain event (usually 0.1" or more) during which time water contact should be avoided.
Surf Forecast:
Today (Thursday the 19th) the recent round of storm-driven swell is backing down temporarily. That will change later today into tonight as this area of low pressure is cranking up winds off NorCal (model by UQAM):
I popped a gray box over SoCal, and the red areas off NorCal represent gusts to 40 mph. This will center wind swell fetch north of SoCal, but this should be enough to create head high+ waves at SoCal's west facing breaks Friday the 20th, angled from 285-300° and periods 7-11 seconds. This wind swell should back off to around chest+ at west facing breaks Saturday the 21st, and about waist to chest Sunday the 22nd.
Monday the 23rd will likely see NW wind swell build ahead of NW ground swell from this swirling mass of fetch brought on by a large trough of low pressure in the Gulf of Alaska (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
This will likely initially create chest high wind swell at west facing breaks Monday the 23rd and Tuesday the 24th, followed by chest to head high ground swell Wednesday the 25th. Wind swell would be angled from over 300° and ground swell about 290°. I'll firm this up in my next report (Sunday). This also, btw, is tied to rain north of SoCal, but there are question marks as to how this will affect SoCal's weather, which I'll get to in the Weather section below.
Thursday the 26th (building day) into Friday the 27th will likely see light to moderate, yet inconsistent NW ground swell from this distant, WestPac system (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
That's a good 3,700 nautical miles from SoCal on a less than favorable course. We should get a glancing blow of energy with intermittent sets running waist to chest high at west facing breaks by Friday the 27th, angled from 305° and periods 15-16 seconds.
The weekend of the 28th-1st may see steep angled NW ground swell from this high latitude Gulf system on the 7-day models (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
With a swell angle of 325°, this one is far beyond SoCal's magic mark for NW swell of ≤300°. Size wise, this would bring many west facing breaks chest+ sets with periods 15-16 seconds, but with inconsistent sets having fewer than normal waves per set and long lulls between sets. South facing breaks will pick up very little wrap, but there should be light southern hemi swell from the 28th through 3/2 from a minor Antarctic storm that's peaking today, resulting in waist max waves at south facing breaks, angled from 185° and periods 14-15 seconds.
A temporary small spell is likely to follow, which could leave many spots with knee to waist high waves 3/3 and 3/4 — by the looks of things today.
The next swell on my notes this morning is a potential southern hemi for Thursday March 5th from this low latitude system near Antarctica (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
That's a long way from SoCal on a less than ideal course, so we wouldn't get much. Based on the 5-day models, SoCal's south facing breaks would see waist to chest high sets on the 5th, angled from 180° and periods 16 seconds. This needs more monitoring, but as long as I have your support, then I can continue watching the Pacific to keep this report going and keep you posted.
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Here's a brief look at how the next few days are breaking down so far:
Friday the 20th looks about head high+ at west facing breaks.
Saturday the 21st looks about chest to at times head high at west facing breaks.
Sunday the 22nd looks about waist to chest max at west facing breaks.
Monday the 23rd looks about chest high at west facing breaks from wind swell.
Tuesday the 24th, so far, looks similar.
Wednesday the 25th, so far, looks about head high at west facing breaks.
Thursday the 26th, so far, looks about chest high at west facing breaks.
Friday the 27th, so far, looks about waist to chest high at west facing breaks.
Saturday the 28th, so far, looks about waist high at most breaks but with NW swell building late in the day.
Sunday the 1st, so far, looks about chest+ at west facing breaks and waist max at south facing spots.
Monday the 2nd, so far, looks about waist high at most breaks with some chest high pluses at standout west facing spots.
Tuesday the 3rd, so far, looks about knee to waist everywhere.
Wednesday the 4th, same deal.
Thursday the 5th may see light to moderate southern hemi swell...more on that in my next report.
Weather Outlook:
Early this morning (Thursday the 19th) the last of this week's rainmakers was bringing rain to SB and VC and moving south. This should reach LA by 9:00 AM, OC by 10:00 AM, and SD sometime this afternoon. This looks like a 6-hour rain event so clearing should start in SB this afternoon, clearing from north to south throughout the afternoon and evening. Rain totals look about 0.25" max along the coast.
Friday the 20th should be dry. A weak offshore flow sets up over the weekend so Saturday the 21st and Sunday the 22nd look dry as well. In fact, models show a tad more offshore push Monday the 23rd as models now keep SoCal dry next week, but with a few question marks. Models this morning have departed from the earlier idea of rain early next week with many now showing just enough high pressure to keep rain to the north of SoCal. We can see how close it'd get on this cloud-cover model (model from ECMWF):
Those dark-blue and reddish clouds are indicative of rain, but SoCal (yellow box) looks mostly clear (or partly cloudy, but rain-free) Monday the 23rd and Tuesday the 24th. While most deterministic models jive with this no-rain scenario, the ensemble models have a different take on it, showing a chance of rain by Tuesday the 24th (model by NOAA MAG):
Taking numerous scenarios into account, the ensembles show every possible outcome — even far-flung ones. With just a tongue of precip stretching into SoCal it doesn't raise confidence enough to call for more than a slight chance of rain Tuesday the 24th or Wednesday the 25th. Still, being a departure from models just 48 hours ago, it's not a slam-dunk yet either way.
No other rainstorms are showing up on the long range models and no Santa Anas are either. So taking all of this into account, here's how I'm calling SoCal beach weather for the next few days:
Today (Thursday the 19th) will see rain pass through Socal. Beach max temps should reach the upper 50s.
Friday the 20th should be dry and mostly clear with beach max temps in the low 60s. Some marine clouds are possible in the morning and some high clouds may stream through the rest of the day. Beach max temps should reach the upper 50s.
Saturday the 21st looks dry and mostly clear with beach max temps in the low 60s.
Sunday the 22nd looks partly cloudy (mostly sunny) with beach max temps in the mid 60s.
Monday the 23rd looks partly- to mostly-cloudy with beach max temps in the mid 60s.
Tuesday the 24th, so far, looks partly cloudy with a slight chance of precip (10-20%), which I'll firm up in my next report (Sunday).
Wind Outlook:
Winds
at 7:00 AM were light and variable most everywhere with an ESE element. WSW winds should pick up by noon to 15-20 mph, and then 25-30 mph mid to late afternoon.
Friday the 20th should see AM light and variables with an offshore element and afternoon onshores to 10 mph.
Saturday the 21st is looking at light AM offshores 4-8 mph and afternoon onshores to 10 mph.
Sunday the 22nd should see AM light and variables with an onshore element and afternoon onshores 10-15 mph.
Monday the 23rd, so far, looks similar.
Until my next report (Sunday), take care, be safe, and smile in the lineup!
