SoCal Forecast
Updated most Sundays, Tuesdays, and Thursdays
Tuesday 11/11/25 6:20 AM
Weather Updated 11/12/25
By Nathan Cool
Surf Charts for SoCal
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Wednesday 11/12/25 6:45 AM: The Weather section has been updated regarding the approaching storm, as this is developing into a powerful event with extended rain and high amounts. The rest of the report is from Tuesday the 11th. The next report will be issued Thursday morning.
At a glance:
Today (Tuesday the 11th) we have mostly moderate NW ground swell in SoCal. As this backs off over the next couple days, light southern hemisphere ground swell will become more noticeable. A multi-part swell is due Friday the 14th, although a storm approaches SoCal by then. NW swells are being watched for the 18th and 20th. Light southern hemis should follow but may go unnoticed as the North Pacific is quite active. Condition-wise: onshore flow underway; rain is on the way; winds problematic at times; tide levels are relaxing; and advisories are in the forecast.
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Current Conditions:
Early this morning, periods were primarily running 14 seconds from 300° and 14 seconds from 195°.
Most west facing breaks were running chest high with occasional head high pluses at standouts. South facing spots were mostly waist to at times chest high.
Buoys in the outer waters were running 6'. Nearshore buoys were running 2.3' (south facing) to 3.2' (west facing).
Tide levels are relaxing from last week's swing. Today we have a 3' low around 8:00 AM, a 5' high around 1:30 PM, and a 0.1' low around 9:30 PM.
Water temps were running 63-66° in most of SD and OC yesterday. LA was hovering around 63-64°. In VC, Channel Islands Harbor reported 63° this morning. SB Harbor reported 64° this morning.
Hazardous Condition Warnings: A wet and windy storm will hit SoCal in a couple days. Details and timing are in the Weather section below. This storm will create hazards with potential for high rain rates, outer water gales, and the increased risk for rip currents along the coast. NWS warnings and advisories should be posted shortly (see advisories for SB, VC, LA here and OC and SD here).
Water Contact Advisory: Rain later this week will increase the risk of contamination from runoff. As a reminder, there is a risk of high bacteria levels for at least 72 hours following any measurable rain event (usually 0.1" or more) during which time water contact should be avoided.
Surf Forecast:
Today (Tuesday the 11th) we're seeing NW ground swell from this system you might recall from earlier reports that took a northward track in the jetstream (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
Some light southern hemi is also peaking through at times, although NW wrap into south facing breaks is about equal to that. As this NW backs down to waist to chest at west facing breaks Wednesday the 12th, the background southern hemi should maintain at least waist high waves at south facing spots.
Thursday the 13th sees the NW fade temporarily as the light southern hemi continues. This should put most breaks into waist high waves with chest high pluses at times at south facing spots.
Friday the 14th remains on track for that multi-part swell, but with conditions highly questionable as a storm affects SoCal. I'll break down that storm in the Weather section below. As for swell, the first of four swells Friday will be from this system near the Aleutians (model from NOAA OPC):
That should start Friday the 14th with chest max waves at west facing breaks, angled from 305° and periods 15 seconds. And then later in the day Friday the 14th into early AM Saturday the 15th, we should see ground swell from this fetch forming in response to the incoming storm (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
That should produce sets running head high to slightly overhead at west facing breaks late Friday the 14th into early AM Saturday the 15th, angled from 315° and periods 13-14 seconds. At the same time though, we'll likely see some wind swell in the mix as WSW winds get kicked up Thursday into Friday. Ground swell looks dominant for size, but wind swell (and strong winds) would make for less than favorable conditions.
Along with all of this NW swell, Friday the 14th should also see SW ground swell from this system that formed east of New Zealand last week (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
That should produce chest high waves at south facing breaks, angled from 205° and periods 15 seconds Friday the 14th.
So all told, Friday the 14th should start out at chest high at most spots with an increase to at least head high at west facing breaks some time in the afternoon. However, that increase will be diametric to conditions: as size increases, conditions worsen.
Saturday the 15th should see a good deal of NW swell in the morning, about head high or slightly overhead at west facing breaks. As for conditions, there are question marks on that, which I'll get to in the Weather section below. Either way, contamination from run-off is inevitable, making water contact high risk.
Sunday the 16th should see this multi-swell activity back down to chest max at west facing breaks and waist high at south facing spots. Monday the 17th looks smaller.
Tuesday the 18th should see the next NW ground swell. While some NW swell is expected from a distant WestPac storm about 3,500 nautical miles from SoCal, the bulk of the swell will likely be from this system closer to our area (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
Taking a southward dive toward the SoCal latitude, this holds potential for head high sets at west facing breaks Tuesday the 18th, angled from 315° and periods 15-16 seconds. This is on the 4-day models so I should be able to call it in my next report (Thursday).
Thursday the 20th could see NW swell from two systems. The first is this one crashing into the Aleutians, taking a less than ideal course to the north (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
We'd get a mere glancing blow of energy, which looks right now to be chest high at west facing breaks Thursday the 20th, angled from 310° and periods 17 seconds. While those sets would be intermittent with few waves per set and long lulls between sets, we could see WSW wind swell with fairly high consistency from this potential cut-off low (model by NOAA MAG):
That's just one of a few cut-off lows on the models this morning that would also affect SoCal weather. But since these types of low pressure systems lack jetstream guidance, they're much harder to predict more than a couple days out.
There's high probability for more NW swell after the 20th, but that's based on long range ensembles, which need more monitoring. On the shorter range models though, there is activity in the southern hemisphere that should send some light to moderate swell to SoCal, including this system on the 3-day models (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
That'd produce waist to chest high waves at south facing breaks Sunday the 23rd. If stronger NW swells form for that timeframe then their wrap could outdo the southern hemi. Another southern hemi is showing up for the 26th with similar size, which could also be overshadowed by NW wrap. With the North Pacific being highly active with early season storms, it's more likely that NW swell would dominate SoCal after the 20th. It's something I'll be watching closely and as long as I have your support then I can continue to keep an eye on the Pacific to keep this report going and keep you posted. Please remember, I'm not the one keeping this report alive — you are.
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Here's a brief look at how the next few days are breaking down so far:
Wednesday the 12th looks about waist to chest high at west facing spots and waist high at south facing breaks.
Thursday the 13th looks about waist high at most breaks.
Friday the 14th should start out at chest high at most breaks, with size increasing later in the day to head high+ at west facing breaks. Conditions are questionable.
Saturday the 15th looks about head high at west facing breaks and chest max at south facing spots.
Sunday the 16th looks about chest high at west facing breaks and waist high at south facing spots.
Monday the 17th, so far, looks about waist high everywhere.
Tuesday the 18th, so far, holds potential for head high sets at west facing breaks.
Wednesday the 19th, so far, looks similar.
Weather Outlook:
Weather Updated 11/12/25
Today (Wednesday the 12th) there have been significant developments to warrant issuing a weather update ahead of the next scheduled report Thursday morning. We can see what is turning into a powerful and extremely wet storm from space this morning (image from NOAA GOES):
This storm is moving slower to SoCal, which not only delays rain but also extends the rain days and rain amounts, which will be significant. As we can see from that sat shot above, plenty of moisture was already streaming into SoCal from the atmospheric river's moisture plume as a large trough of low pressure (red circle) swirls counterclockwise to stir that moisture into SoCal. This is priming the pump for the storm, moistening up the atmosphere before a low (red arrow) dives south in the trough, and then cuts off from the trough tomorrow, sitting and spinning around SoCal for a few days.
Doppler radar this morning showed precip west of the Channel Islands and a small pocket near Oxnard. This may be virga (rain that doesn't reach the ground), or drizzle from a fairly hefty marine deck. There may be spotty patches of blue sky late in the afternoon, but not for long. Max beach temps today should reach the mid 60s.
Thursday the 13th may see some spotty clouds in the morning but clouds should quickly fill the skies as the low in that trough dives south, becomes cut off from the trough/jetstream, and the trough continues to swirl moisture into SoCal. Cooler air should drop max beach temps to around 60°, tops. As for precip, it looks like sprinkles could fall in SB and VC sometime in the afternoon Thursday, but nothing measurable. Rain should then start in SB sometime Thursday evening; VC before dawn Friday; LA early AM Friday; OC by noon Friday; and SD early afternoon Friday.
Friday the 14th should see rain most of the day everywhere. Cool air should cap max beach temps in the upper 50s to around 60°.
Saturday the 15th is looking at rain most of the day. Very heavy rain is likely early in the morning, possibly starting before dawn. Most models show high rain rates and amounts predawn Saturday through midmorning, so that's what I'd plan for as this could bring debris flows and flooding (more on amounts in a sec). The convective parameters (CAPE) show enough energy in this storm to bring potential thunderstorms and waterspouts Saturday the 15th, which jives with the high-rain rates and amounts. Max beach temps should run in the upper 50s to around 60°.
Sunday the 16th should see yet more rain. The GFS and ECMWF are split with the GFS light early AM and the EC moderate for a good part of the day. Max beach temps should run in the upper 50s to around 60°.
Monday the 17th is looking at light off and on precip with max beach temps around 60°. However, Monday evening into Tuesday the 18th could see more precip, which could be heavy starting late afternoon Monday. Max beach temps would run about 60°.
Tuesday the 18th will likely see more precip. Wednesday the 19th and Thursday the 20th may see a temporary break with off and on precip, but another hefty shot of precip is possible late Thursday the 20th into Friday the 21st. Although the cut-off low would move east by Tuesday, a traditional, jetstream-guided trough of low pressure is expected to replace it, keeping the atmospheric river storm pattern in place. On top of that, a much deeper, stronger, and wetter trough of low pressure could swipe SoCal during the second half of next week, followed by even more troughs. It's not until Thursday the 27th that high pressure might make a comeback, possibly leading to a clear Thanksgiving 4-dayer.
As for amounts: This is where it gets very concerning as models show rain amounts from just Friday (14th) into Saturday morning (15th), reaching 3-4" around SB and parts of VC. VC in general though should receive 2" during that time; LA would be around 2"; OC 1-2"; and SD 0.5-1". But by the time all of this rain gets wrapped up by late next week, SB, VC, and LA would see a good 6" of rain. OC and SD could see 4" of rain. Granted, that week-long total would be spread out over many days, but the initial round of heavy rain Friday is concerning, and preparations should be taken now.
All of this needs more monitoring and I'll have an update in my report Thursday morning (13th). In the meantime, you can stay abreast on warnings and advisories for SB, VC, LA here and OC and SD here. Stay tuned for my next report Thursday morning.
Wind Outlook:
Winds
at 7:00 AM were light and variable most everywhere. Afternoon onshores should run 8-12 mph.
Wednesday the 12th should see AM light and variables with an onshore element and afternoon onshores 8-12 mph.
Thursday the 13th should see southerlies pick up early, running 10 mph for the dawn patrols, 15 mph mid to late AM, and then 20-25 mph from the WSW in the afternoon and evening.
Friday the 14th should see early AM onshores to 15 mph, increasing in the afternoon to 25 mph, with 30 mph gusts possible around the wind-prone areas from LA north.
Saturday the 15th, so far, is expected to see AM light and variables with afternoon onshores 7-11 mph.
Until my next report (Thursday), take care, be safe, and smile in the lineup!
