SoCal Forecast
Updated most Sundays, Tuesdays, and Thursdays
Sunday 1/11/26 6:20 AM
By Nathan Cool
Surf Charts for SoCal
Rincon | Ventura, C-St. | County Line | Malibu | Hermosa | Huntington BeachTrestles | Old Mans | Oceanside | Beacons | Sunset Cliffs
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At a glance:
Today (Sunday the 11th) is a small day for surf in SoCal, but not for long. NW ground swell is due Monday the 12th into Tuesday the 13th. Another NW ground swell is due Thursday the 15th. Moderate NW ground swell is becoming likely for Sunday the 18th into Monday the 19th. And another NW swell is being watched for the 24th-25th. Condition-wise: dry weather and clear skies for a while; Santa Ana weakens; tide levels swing wide later in the week; and water temps are down slightly in many spots.
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Current Conditions:
Early this morning, periods were primarily running 12 seconds from around 310°.
Most west facing breaks were running waist high. South facing spots were mostly knee to waist.
Buoys in the outer waters were running 3-4'. Nearshore buoys were about 1.5'.
Tide levels are moderate for now but they will swing wider later in the week as we approach a New Moon Sunday the 18th. Today we have a 4.5' high around 4:00 AM, a 1.5' low around 11:30 AM, and a 2.5' high around 5:30 PM.
Water temps were down slightly in many spots from upwelling caused by the recent northerly wind event. Most of SD, OC, and LA were running 58-60°. In VC, Channel Islands Harbor reported 59° this morning. SB Harbor reported 59° last night.
Surf Forecast:
Today (Sunday the 11th) is a small day in the SoCal surf zone but that will turn around tomorrow.
Monday the 12th (building quickly in the morning) should see NW ground swell from this system that peaked a couple days ago with decent sized seas (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
That should put most west facing breaks into sets running head high to 2' overhead when this swell peaks, which should be by late morning Monday the 12th. Swell will be filling in before dawn, increasing quickly during the morning. Swell should be angled from 300° with periods 17 seconds. This swell should run head high+ Tuesday the 13th, and then chest+ Wednesday the 14th.
Thursday the 15th should see NW ground swell from another system at the same distance but lower latitude (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
That should produce sets running head high+ at west facing breaks Thursday the 15th with swell angled from 290° and periods 16 seconds. However, there will be a deep early morning high tide that could shut down many spots for a while in the very early morning hours. In any case, this swell should run about head high at west facing breaks Friday the 16th, dropping to chest high Saturday the 17th.
Sunday the 18th (building quickly) into Monday the 19th could see moderate WNW ground swell from this system on the 3-day models (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
Taking a southeasterly track toward Hawaii leaves SoCal with a glancing blow of energy for moderately sized sets. So far, this works out to a chest to head high max swell for west facing breaks, angled from 285° and periods 16 seconds.
The weekend of the 24th-25th appears to be the next window of opportunity for swell in SoCal, but the NorthPac pattern may change over the next week to one not as conducive for good-sized swells. Right now, the jetstream/storm-track (green) is positioned along ideal latitudes to guide swell-making storms coming out of the Western Pacific into our swell window past the Aleutian-Hawaiian longitudes (model by NOAA MAG):
High pressure is centered off SoCal right now, extending only midway into the Gulf's longitudes. This long-stretching jetstream has guided the storms bringing NW swell to SoCal this week (12th and 15th). But about a week from now, high pressure should build — big time — across the entire Northeast Pacific, dominating the Gulf of Alaska (model by NOAA MAG):
This will bend the jetstream far to the north, stopping swell-making storms from crossing our swell-worthy Rubicon along the Aleutian-Hawaiian longitudes. A low pressure trough (red circle) would remain parked in the Western Pacific, housing a number of stormy lows that would whip up waves, but from a very distant 3,900 nautical miles from SoCal. That would make for inconsistent swell with fewer than normal waves per set and long lulls between sets. With seas running about 30' within storms from that region, SoCal's west facing breaks would top out at chest high, with swell angled from around 295° and periods 16 seconds. Current swell ETA is for the weekend of the 24th-25th, but we're talking about a 7-day long range outlook for swell genesis, and then another 4- to 5-day travel time for swell to arrive in SoCal. This needs more monitoring, but as long as I have your support then I can continue watching the Pacific to keep this report going and keep you posted.
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Here's a brief look at how the next few days are breaking down so far:
Monday the 12th is expected to run head high to 2' overhead at west facing breaks by late morning, with swell building early in the morning.
Tuesday the 13th looks about head high to up to 2' overhead at west facing breaks in the morning, fading later in the day.
Wednesday the 14th looks about chest+ at west facing breaks.
Thursday the 15th is expected to run head high+ at west facing breaks.
Friday the 16th is expected to run head high at west facing breaks.
Saturday the 17th looks about chest high at west facing breaks.
Sunday the 18th, so far, is expected to run chest to head high max at west facing breaks by mid to late morning.
Monday the 19th, so far, is expected to run chest to head high at west facing breaks.
Tuesday the 20th, so far, looks about waist to chest at west facing breaks.
Wednesday the 21st, so far, looks about waist high at west facing breaks.
Thursday the 22nd, so far, looks about waist high at west facing breaks.
Friday the 23rd, so far, looks about waist high at west facing breaks.
Saturday the 24th appears to be the next ETA for swell in SoCal. I'll have more on that in my next report.
Weather Outlook:
Today (Sunday the 11th) high pressure remains over the American West, keeping an offshore flow in place (model by NOAA MAG):
Winds have been the primary weather feature, but our current Santa Ana is different than most, due to this somewhat odd pattern (model by UQAM):
That analysis model shows surface temperatures, which, as would be expected for a Santa Ana, are cold in the Great Basin. However, that cold air mass (blue) is stretching well into Mexico, with the highest pressure (white arrow) around New Mexico. Usually that Great Basin high — and its accompanying cold air — remains in the Great Basin (across Utah and Nevada, and portions of Idaho). But with the coldest air and highest pressure farther south (and slightly east), this has set up a tight pressure- and temperature-gradient along SoCal stretching into Baja, resulting in stronger winds across Baja this morning (model by UQAM):
In that wind-gust model we can see the corresponding strong high and the winds gusting across Baja (white arrows). Being an uncommon development, models have seemingly struggled to pin down exactly where winds will channel through the SoCal mountains to reach the valleys and coast. So while the NE gradient is measuring an astonishing 8mb offshore (on a scale of 1-10) and 13mb from the north (on a scale of 1-15), one would think SoCal would get blown into the ocean. But the position of the elements creating this Santa Ana are not aligned over SoCal, so calling winds is trickier than normal, but I'll break it down in the Wind section below.
Other things are slam-dunks to forecast: Skies will be mostly clear for a while with some high clouds showing up by the end of the week from a possible cut-off low off the coast. No rain is showing up until maybe late next week (22nd?) from a low pressure trough, which may stay far enough east to make for a dry wind event late next week with no rain at all. Air temps will also be rather pleasant at the coast in the 70° range for a while.
Taking all of this into account, here's how I'm calling the weather for SoCal:
Today (Sunday the 11th) should have clear skies with moderate offshore winds at times at the wind-prone spots of VC and SD. Max beach temps should reach about 70°.
Monday the 12th should see clear skies with max beach temps around 70°. Winds should be mild to moderate offshore.
Tuesday the 13th should see clear skies with max beach temps around 70°. Winds should be mild.
Wednesday the 14th should see clear skies with max beach temps around 70°.
Thursday the 15th should see clear skies with max beach temps around 70°.
Friday the 16th may see some high clouds pass overhead but no marine layer is expected. Max beach temps should reach 70°.
Wind Outlook:
Winds
at 7:00 AM were calm along most of the SoCal coast, although the most wind-prone spots of VC (i.e. Pt. Mugu, Leo Carillo) were seeing NE winds around 15 mph with gusts near 30 mph at times. Offshore winds should peak midmorning at about 15 mph around VC with stronger gusts at times, but winds should be fairly mild elsewhere.
Monday the 12th is expected to see light AM offshores to 10 mph and afternoon onshores to 10 mph. However, the wind-prone spots around VC may see NE winds over 15 mph at times.
Tuesday the 13th should see light AM offshores to 10 mph most everywhere, with possibly some gusts at times across the most wind-prone sections of VC. Afternoon winds look calm to slightly onshore.
Wednesday the 14th should see AM offshores 5-10 mph and afternoon onshores 5-10 mph.
Thursday the 15th should see AM offshores 5-10 mph and afternoon onshores 5-10 mph.
Friday the 16th should see AM offshores 5-10 mph and afternoon onshores 5-10 mph.
Until my next report (Tuesday), take care, be safe, and smile in the lineup!
