SoCal Forecast
Updated most Sundays, Tuesdays, and Thursdays
Thursday 10/2/25 6:50 AM
By Nathan Cool
Surf Charts for SoCal
Rincon | Ventura, C-St. | County Line | Malibu | Hermosa | Huntington BeachTrestles | Old Mans | Oceanside | Beacons | Sunset Cliffs
Subscribe to be notified:
Get notified when this report is updated.
At a glance:
Today (Thursday the 2nd) numerous wave-making storms are forming across the Pacific from nearly all of SoCal's swell windows. Today we have moderately sized NW ground swell in SoCal with less southerly swell. Another round of NW swell is due this weekend. Swell from TS Octave is due over the weekend. Light to moderate southern hemi swell is due early next week. Sizable swell from what could become Hurricane Priscilla is being watched for the second half of next week, and other NW and SW swells will likely come ashore then too. And a NW-SW combo is being watched for the 13th. Condition-wise: onshore flow gets temporary reprieve this weekend; light precip possible early next week; more precip teases the long range; winds stronger over the next couple days but shift favorably for the weekend; tide levels swing wide shortly; and water temps are slightly cooler in many spots.
|
|
|
Current Conditions:
Early this morning, periods were primarily running 14 seconds from 300° and 12-13 seconds from 190°.
Most west facing breaks were running chest high with occasional pluses upwards of head high at standouts. Direct south facing breaks were running chest max.
Buoys in the outer waters north of LA were running 11', rising quickly from 6' last night. Farther south into SoCal the outer waters were still running 7' but that should increase over the next few hours. Nearshore buoys were about 2.5'.
Tide levels will swing wider over the next few days as we approach a Full Moon Monday the 6th. Today we have a 4' high around 8:00 AM, a 3' low around 1:00 PM, and a 5' high around 6:30 PM. The morning high will run deeper and later this weekend, which could slow down midmorning sessions near the high tide times.
Water temps were running 65-68° in most of SD, OC, and LA yesterday. In VC, Channel Islands Harbor reported 67° this morning. In SB, Stearns Wharf reported 66° this morning.
Surf Forecast:
Today (Thursday the 2nd) the dominant swell in SoCal is NW energy sent our way from this system that peaked in the Gulf of Alaska a couple days ago (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
Background NW is in the mix from the origins of Typhoon Neoguri, but the bulk of that will arrive in a couple days (more on that in a sec). We also have remnants from Narda bringing southerly swell. The NW swell from the Gulf should continue Friday the 3rd at around chest high for west facing breaks, but the pluses should be rarer. South facing breaks should run waist to chest on Friday.
Saturday the 4th should see the bulk of the swell from Neoguri as it took this course toward the Aleutians a few days ago (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
That storm's distance and course resulted in a glancing blow of energy directed at SoCal, so sets should be inconsistent with few waves per set and long lulls between sets. As for size, the better set waves should run chest high at west facing breaks Saturday the 4th, angled from 295-300° with periods 17 seconds. However, that won't be the only swell in SoCal.
Saturday the 4th should also see NW wind swell in SoCal as a trough of low pressure coming off the Pacific takes a swipe at SoCal. Rain should stay well to the north of SoCal from that trough, but it will kick up stronger than normal winds late today, but more so Friday the 3rd. Those winds should be strong in the outer waters, running 30 mph (sustained) with stronger gusts off Pt. Conception, and at least 25 mph (sustained) near the Channel Islands (with stronger gusts). Even the outer waters off OC and SD are looking at 20+ mph winds. Nearshore winds will be strong at times today and Friday, calmer this weekend — I'll get to that in the Wind section below. As for wind swell, size should run chest high at west facing breaks Saturday the 4th; hence, a 50-50 mix of ground swell from the Aleutians and localized wind swell running chest high at west facing breaks Saturday. Conditions may be questionable with peaky conditions, even at south facing breaks picking up the wrap.
Sunday the 5th should see wind swell exit as the swell from Neoguri remains. Size should run waist to chest at west facing breaks Sunday the 5th. South facing breaks, btw, will be smaller. But, there is one other swell due this weekend.
Saturday the 4th (building day) into Sunday the 5th should see minor swell from TS Octave, shown here on this morning's model run (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
Housing just 15' seas from that position (about 1,200 nautical miles south of SoCal) works out to just waist high waves at south facing breaks, angled from 175° with periods 11 seconds. NW wrap should be about equal to that this weekend as well. But, many 48-hour models show Octave gaining strength and retrograding east. This would result in slightly bigger surf by Tuesday the 7th, but other swell will be headed our way by then.
Monday the 6th (building day) into Tuesday the 7th (peak) should see southerly ground swell from this system south of Pitcairn (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
That works out to chest max sets at south facing breaks by Tuesday the 7th, angled from 185° and periods 16 seconds. That's not the best position or course for a southern hemi in SoCal, so sets may be inconsistent, and some south facing breaks may only top out at waist high. Also, a small system near the Aleutians should bring waist high waves to west facing breaks at the same time (building Monday the 6th into Tuesday the 7th). South facing breaks should fare better for size (chest max Tuesday), but with less consistency than the waist high waves at west facing breaks. In any case, the southern hemi swell should back down to waist to chest Wednesday the 8th as the NW remains minor in the background — temporarily.
Thursday the 9th could see sizable southerly swell from this storm on the 6-day models, which could be named Hurricane Priscilla (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
Models have shown this storm for the past few days and all have been fairly consistent with it. That model above shows 30' seas, which is impressive for being that close to SoCal; however, it's located on the eastern fringe of our tropical swell window, angling swell from a steep 160°. Based on that model above, breaks that can work that SE angle would see sets running 2-4' overhead, while other south facing breaks run head high. Periods would run 14-16 seconds. There's still a few more days to go before calling it, but other swells are becoming likely for the 9th.
Thursday the 9th — Priscilla aside — should see NW ground swell from this system on 24-hour models (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
That should produce chest max sets at west facing breaks Thursday the 9th, angled from 305° with periods 14-15 seconds.
And, Thursday the 9th into Friday the 10th should see spotty SW ground swell from this system tracking northeastward off Antarctica, coming to its peak this morning (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
Being so distant from SoCal means sets would be inconsistent with few waves per set and long lulls between sets. As for size, the better sets should top out at chest high with swell angled from 175° and periods 17 seconds. But, if Priscilla forms as anticipated, this southern hemi would be overshadowed by bigger hurricane swell.
Monday the 13th into Tuesday the 14th is the next swell on my charts this morning, which could be a NW-SW ground swell combo. The SW portion would be from this pair of storms on the short range, 2-day models (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
That should bring chest high waves to south facing breaks Monday the 13th and Tuesday the 14th, angled from 195° with periods 16 seconds. While that's pretty much a safe bet on the short range models, the longer range, 6-day models show NW swell from this Aleutian system (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
That could produce chest max sets at west facing breaks Monday the 13th and Tuesday the 14th as well. Swell from the NW would be angled from 305° with periods 14-15 seconds.
Longer range models show more southern hemi potential for the 18th, and the extended long range shows another hurricane forming on the 10-day with swell ETA potential in SoCal around the 15th. The Pacific is hyperactive right now as we transition seasons and there's a lot to track over the coming days and weeks. But as long as I have your support then I can continue watching the Pacific for SoCal waves and weather to keep this report going and keep you posted.
|
|
|
Here's how the day-to-day is breaking down so far:
Friday the 3rd is expected to run chest high at west facing breaks with rarer pluses. South facing breaks should run waist to chest.
Saturday the 4th is expected to run chest high at west facing breaks with a 50-50 mix of wind swell and ground swell. South facing spots should run waist high.
Sunday the 5th is expected to run inconsistently chest max at west facing breaks and waist high at south facing spots.
Monday the 6th should run waist max everywhere.
Tuesday the 7th looks about waist to chest at south facing breaks and waist high at west facing spots.
Wednesday the 8th looks about waist high at most spots.
Thursday the 9th, so far, holds potential for sets running head high to 4' overhead at south facing breaks from Priscilla. The few days that follow hinge on this storm (see above), so I'll hold off on the day-to-day here until my next report.
Weather Outlook:
Today (Thursday the 2nd) a temporary ridge of high pressure is nosing into SoCal, but a trough of low pressure will start making its way into SoCal this afternoon, taking a swipe through SoCal Friday. Marine layer should be minimal today with a quick burn-off in most spots, with beach max temps in the upper 60s.
Friday the 3rd should see AM marine layer as the low pressure pushes through SoCal. This is expected to whip up the winds for wind swell in SoCal Saturday the 4th. As for weather, Friday the 3rd should see AM marine layer with a mid morning burn-off as the winds scour-out the marine layer early. It'll be one of those days when If it's clear, then winds are near. Beach max temps should run in the upper 60s.
Saturday the 4th sees the trough move east, which should result in a slight offshore flow for the morning in SoCal. AM marine layer looks thin to nil with clear skies early to mid morning and beach max temps in the upper 60s.
Sunday the 5th should see the onshore flow return as a trough starts to bear down on SoCal. Look for AM marine layer with a mid or late AM burn-off and max beach temps in the upper 60s.
Monday the 6th could see light precip in SoCal as this low (red arrow) pinches off from the jetstream and retrogrades back over the west coast (model by NOAA MAG):
The precip chances are low with light amounts at most. More than likely this will bring AM drizzle at most to the coast. Beach max temps should run in the mid to upper 60s.
Tuesday the 7th should see the cut-off low weaken. Look for AM marine layer, late AM burn-off, and max beach temps in the mid 60s.
Wednesday the 8th could start to cloud-up as some models take Hurricane Priscilla (or parts of the storm's cloud deck) toward SoCal. The ECMWF model is bold enough to show heavy rain in SoCal Thursday the 9th and/or Friday the 10th from Priscilla, but no other model is that bullish right now. I'll see how models deal with this over the next few days.
Wind Outlook:
Winds
at 7:00 AM were light and variable most everywhere. Afternoon onshores should run 15 mph.
Friday the 3rd is expected to see AM onshores 3-6 mph and afternoon onshores 15-20 mph from LA south. VC and parts of SB could see afternoon onshores gust over 25 mph by mid afternoon.
Saturday the 4th should see light AM NNE winds 4-8 mph and afternoon onshores 10-15 mph.
Sunday the 5th should see AM light and variables with afternoon onshores 8-12 mph.
Until my next report (Sunday), take care, be safe, and smile in the lineup!
