SoCal Forecast
Updated most Sundays, Tuesdays, and Thursdays
Tuesday 6/2/26 6:20 AM
By Nathan Cool
Surf Charts for SoCal
Rincon | Ventura, C-St. | County Line | Malibu | Hermosa | Huntington BeachTrestles | Old Mans | Oceanside | Beacons | Sunset Cliffs
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At a glance:
Today (Tuesday the 2nd) we have some good sized southern hemisphere ground swell in SoCal and more is on the way. The next southerly ground swell fills in Thursday the 4th into Friday the 5th. Wind swell should enter the mix late this week. A significantly sized southern hemisphere ground swell is due by Tuesday the 9th. Moderate southern hemi swell is likely for the 13th-14th. Tropical swell may come ashore then too. A bigger SW ground swell is being watched for the 17th. And yet another southern hemi could come ashore on the 19th. Condition-wise: seasonal June Gloom with day-to-day variations in marine layer; winds stay moderate; the tide is swinging wide; and water temps are fair for the most part.
BTW, just a quick heads-up before getting to the forecast: May donations came in short (more on that here). So if you haven't donated in a while, now would be a great time to contribute. Thank you everyone!
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Current Conditions:
Early this morning, periods were primarily running 17-18 seconds from 195°.
Most south facing spots were running head high. Direct west facing spots were mostly waist to chest, bigger at SW exposed spots.
Buoys in the outer waters were running 7'. Nearshore buoys were averaging 2.5'.
Tide levels are still swinging wide from Sunday's Full Moon. Today we have a -0.5' low around 6:00 AM, a 3.5' high around 12:30 PM, a 2.6' low around 4:30 PM, and a 5.5' high around 10:30 PM.
Water temps were running 63-66° around most of SD and OC, although Huntington Beach reported 59° yesterday. LA was also running 63-66° in many spots, although the usually-cooler Zuma reported 58°. In VC, Channel Islands Harbor has been running 60-62° over the past 24 hours. In SB, Stearns Wharf reported 62° this morning.
Surf Forecast:
Today (Tuesday the 2nd) we're seeing peak swell from this system that formed near New Zealand about 10 days ago (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
This should drop to chest+ at south facing breaks Wednesday the 3rd, but more swell is on the way.
Thursday the 4th (building day with forerunners) into Friday the 5th is when our next SW swell is due. At first, Thursday the 4th should start out with swell from this system (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
While that should start Thursday the 4th with chest high sets at south facing breaks for the dawn patrols, swell from a second, bigger system should produce better size rather quickly (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
Forerunners from that swell should fill in throughout the morning Thursday the 4th. Size should then increase later in the day, reaching its peak Friday the 5th with sets running head high at south facing breaks. Swell should be angled from 210° and periods 18-19 seconds. Head high sets should continue at south facing breaks Saturday the 6th; and then chest to head high Sunday the 7th.
Although southern hemi will be dominant Thursday the 4th, wind swell should be in the mix as this familiar springtime pattern once again gins up winds along the coast (model by UQAM):
Pressure gradients will be tight with Δ22 hPa between that high and low, whipping up strong winds with the red areas measuring 40 mph gusts. Staying west of the Channel Islands means only a fraction of this wind swell will diffract into the SoCal Bight (page 77). This should produce chest high wind swell for west facing breaks Thursday the 4th and Friday the 5th. But southern hemi will take center stage both days, running head high at south facing breaks Friday the 5th and Saturday the 6th, weakening Sunday the 7th — but not for long.
Monday the 8th (late, with with forerunners) into Tuesday the 9th (peak) should see significantly sized southern hemisphere ground swell from this impressive system that peaked last night after traveling northward off Antarctica (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
Seas are robust in that juicy purple center with models estimating 45'. On that distance and course, size works out to sets running 2-3' overhead at south facing breaks Tuesday the 9th and Wednesday the 10th, angled from 190-195° with periods 20 seconds. That angle puts swell just within the window to create pluses at spots working refraction through the San Diego Trough (page 111). So there is a chance that some standouts, mostly south of LA, could see bigger set waves at times. After peaking Tuesday the 9th and Wednesday the 10th, this swell should back down to about head high Thursday the 11th, and then chest+ Friday the 12th.
Thursday the 11th and/or Friday the 12th might see an increase in NW wind swell as models show this windy pattern developing for SoCal (model by NOAA MAG):
Between a strong cut-off low (red arrow) and opposingly strong inland high (blue arrow) a tight pressure gradient would form smack dab through SoCal. Wind swell on the extended long range models comes in at chest to head high, but this relies on a low going rogue from the jetstream, lacking predictable guidance. Also, minor waist high pulses are expected at west facing breaks from Typhoon Jangmi as that storm, brushing Japan right now, will progress westward while maintaining 25-30' seas. That storm will likely die rather quickly, so only minor swell would reach SoCal's west facing spots. It's hardly worth mentioning given the wind swell and temporarily fading southern hemi on the 11th-12th, so I'll likely drop Jangmi from my next forecast as there are plenty more swells headed our way.
Saturday the 13th (building quickly) into Sunday the 14th (peak) will likely see moderate SW ground swell from this system breaking off Antarctica on the 3-day models (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
With 30' seas on that trajectory, there would be moderate loss from its angular spread (page 52), with size coming in at chest+ at south facing breaks, angled from 190° and periods 16-17 seconds. Models have been consistent with this the past few days. So now that we're just three days out, confidence is high.
Saturday the 13th and/or Sunday the 14th could also see tropical swell in the mix. As you might recall from earlier reports, the ensemble models have been advertising activity in the topics (see earlier model here), and now that we're within the range of the deterministic models, they're starting to jive with that idea (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
Hurricanes like that need to cross SoCal's Rubicon for southerly swell at around 110W, shown by that green line — essentially, once passing the Cabo longitude. Even then, the swell angle is steep from the southeast (160°) until they travel a bit farther west (SoCal is around 118W). So we need hurricanes to travel west of Cabo to be notable wave makers for the majority of SoCal's south facing breaks. In any case, it's far too early to call size today, but I'm on it and I'll continue to see how this plays out.
Tuesday the 16th into Wednesday the 17th is looking at swell from a couple southerly storms. One on the 5-day models near Antarctica could produce some swell, but the more significant wave-maker would be sent our way courtesy of this large system southeast of New Zealand (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
Based on the 6-day models, that holds potential for head high waves at south facing breaks, angled from 210° and periods 19-20 seconds.
Friday the 19th could see the next southern hemi, forming in the same region with smaller seas, but a much better course for SoCal swell (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
So far, that holds potential for sets running head high+ at south facing breaks, angled from 210° and periods 17 seconds.
There's a lot going on across the Pacific that needs monitoring, but as long as I have your support then I can continue to keep an eye on the Pacific and keep you posted. Please remember this report is funded by reader donations and your help is crucial right now to keep this report alive (see why here).
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Here's a brief look at how the next few days are breaking down so far:
Wednesday the 3rd is expected to run chest+ at south facing spots and waist high at west facing spots.
Thursday the 4th is expected to run chest high at south facing spots for the dawn patrols but with forerunners throughout the day and an increase in size late in the day. West facing breaks should run chest high at times from wind swell.
Friday the 5th is expected to run head high at south facing spots and chest max at west facing breaks from wrap and wind swell.
Saturday the 6th is expected to run head high at south facing spots and waist to chest at west facing spots.
Sunday the 7th is expected to run chest to at times head high at south facing spots and waist to chest at west facing spots.
Monday the 8th is expected to run chest high at south facing spots for the dawn patrols, but with forerunners throughout the day and an increase by the evening. West facing breaks will rely on wrap.
Tuesday the 9th, so far, is expected to run 2-3' overhead at many south facing spots. West facing breaks will rely on wrap.
Wednesday the 10th, so far, looks about 2-3' overhead at south facing spots. West facing breaks will rely on wrap.
Thursday the 11th, so far, looks about head high at south facing spots with some pluses possible in the morning. Wind swell may increase later in the day.
Friday the 12th, so far, looks about chest high at south facing breaks with some pluses near head high at standouts. Wind swell is possible and being monitored.
Saturday the 13th, so far, is expected to run chest high at south facing breaks. There is also potential for tropical swell around this time.
Sunday the 14th, so far, is expected to run chest+ at south facing breaks. There is also potential for tropical swell around this time.
Monday the 15th, so far, looks about chest max at south facing breaks.
Tuesday the 16th, so far, looks about chest high at south facing breaks.
Wednesday the 17th, so far, holds potential for head high sets at south facing breaks.
Thursday the 18th, so far, holds potential for head high sets at south facing breaks.
Friday the 19th, so far, holds potential for head high sets at south facing breaks.
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Weather Outlook:
Today (Tuesday the 2nd) June Gloom takes center stage with minor day-to-day fluctuations in marine layer depth. One thing that will stay steady is the thermal inversion (page 131), which should remain robust at Δ10-15°F aloft. While acting as a thickening agent, marine layer could dissipate midmorning-ish over the next few days at the northerly gradient (LAX-BFL gradient, page 127) hovers around -1.5mb. It's not a lot, but without that, we'd see marine intrusion lasting much longer each day.
Saturday the 6th could see a thicker marine layer as the northerly gradient weakens and a trough bears down on SoCal. As the inversion stays strong, marine layer would likely burn off later this weekend. Question marks then enter the forecast early next week from the cut-off low that could kick up wind swell later next week, shown here again to save you from scrolling (model by NOAA MAG):
A number of things could happen: If the high remains strong, an offshore, northerly gradient would warm temps and scour out marine layer early. If the low wins the day, then the opposite would occur with a thicker morning marine layer. In any event, no rain or drizzle is in the forecast right now.
Taking all of this into account, here's how I'm calling SoCal beach weather for the next few days:
Today (Tuesday the 2nd) should see a mid to late AM burnoff and max beach temps in the mid to upper 60s.
Wednesday the 3rd should see AM marine layer, mid to late morning burnoff, and max beach temps in the mid to upper 60s.
Thursday the 4th should see AM marine layer, mid morning burnoff, and max beach temps in the mid to upper 60s.
Friday the 5th should see AM marine layer, burnoff by noon, and max beach temps in the upper 60s.
Saturday the 6th will likely see a thicker AM marine layer with burnoff by noon or early afternoon and max beach temps in the upper 60s.
Sunday the 7th should see AM marine layer, burnoff is likely by noon, and max beach temps will likely reach the upper 60s.
Wind Outlook:
Winds
at 7:00 AM were light and variable most everywhere with a slight southerly element. Afternoon onshores should reach 15 mph.
Wednesday the 3rd should see AM light and variables with afternoon onshores 10-15 mph.
Thursday the 4th should see AM light and variables with afternoon onshores 10-15 mph.
Friday the 5th should see AM light and variables with afternoon onshores 10-15 mph.
Until my next report (Thursday), take care, be safe, and smile in the lineup!
