SoCal Forecast
Updated most Sundays, Tuesdays, and Thursdays
Thursday 6/18/26 6:30 AM
By Nathan Cool
Surf Charts for SoCal
Rincon | Ventura, C-St. | County Line | Malibu | Hermosa | Huntington BeachTrestles | Old Mans | Oceanside | Beacons | Sunset Cliffs
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At a glance:
Today (Thursday the 18th) we still have a fair amount of southern hemisphere ground swell in SoCal but this swell is on the way out. Moderate SW ground swell builds this weekend. A decent sized SW ground swell is due Wednesday the 24th. Moderate southern hemi swells are being watched for the 27th through the 2nd. Condition-wise: June Gloom sees reprieve next week; winds stay moderate; the tidal swing is relaxing; and water temps are fair.
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Current Conditions:
Early this morning, periods were primarily running 17 seconds from 215°.
Most south facing spots were running chest to head high. Direct west facing breaks were mostly waist to chest, bigger at SW exposed spots.
Buoys in the outer waters were running 5'. Nearshore buoys were running 2.5-3.9'.
Tide levels are relaxing from the recent swing. Today we have a -1.2' low around 7:00 AM, a 4' high around 2:00 PM, a 2.3' low around 6:45 PM, and a 5.6' high around midnight.
Water temps were averaging 68° in SD and 66° in OC. LA was running 65-67°. In VC, Channel Islands Harbor reported 62° last night. In SB, Stearns Wharf reported 61° this morning.
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Surf Forecast:
Today (Thursday the 18th) we're still seeing a fair amount of SW ground swell from this New Zealand system that formed about ten days ago (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
Swell from that storm peaked in SoCal Wednesday the 17th and is on the way out today. This should dip to chest high Friday the 19th.
Saturday the 20th (building day) into Sunday the 21st (peak) should see SW ground swell from the first of these two low latitude storms that formed a about a week ago (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
Saturday the 20th should start out with waist to chest high sets at south facing breaks for the dawn patrols, building quickly in the morning and throughout the day to its peak Sunday the 21st at a more consistent chest high. The system behind it should keep chest high waves going at south facing breaks Monday the 22nd, and then waist to chest Tuesday the 23rd. Swell should be angled from 210° with periods 15-16 seconds.
Wednesday the 24th should see the next SW ground swell from this system that drifted northward off Antarctica a few days ago (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
That should produce chest high waves on the average sets at south facing breaks, but up to head high at standouts. Swell should be angled from 205° and periods 17-18 seconds. This swell should continue at chest to at times head high Thursday the 25th, and then chest high Friday the 26th.
Saturday the 27th (building day) into Sunday the 28th (peak) should see SW ground swell from this system passing south of New Zealand today (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
That's not a great course for SoCal swell. But with 30-35' seas it should produce chest max sets at south facing breaks, angled from 215° and periods 18 seconds. This swell should continue Monday the 29th.
Tuesday the 30th will likely see moderate SW ground swell from yet another New Zealand system, but with a slightly better course for SoCal swell (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
Course and seas were downgraded slightly from a couple days ago, which now works out to a chest high swell at south facing breaks, angled from 210° and periods 18 seconds. That's just three days out on the models, which have been fairly consistent and aligned so confidence is high. This swell will likely continue at chest high Wednesday the 1st. I'll confirm this in my Sunday report.
Thursday the 2nd could see southerly ground swell from this system on the 5-day outlook (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
So far, with 25-30' seas on that course, it holds potential for chest high swell at south facing breaks, angled from 190° and periods 16 seconds.
Looking toward the tropics, the long range models continue to hint at some kind of tropical swell later this month and/or the beginning of July. This morning's GFS model likes this scenario, with favorable guidance from high pressure centered near the AZ/MX border (model by NOAA MAG):
The clockwise spin on that high would help guide that storm (red arrow) northwestward, passing the Cabo longitude to enter our swell window. The GFS is so bullish that it takes that storm to within the SD/MX latitude, which would also have an effect on SoCal weather. Longer range models show other systems trailing behind that one. And yet other models, like the ECMWF, show that AZ/MX high swirling precip into SoCal as early as Wednesday the 24th. And although that seems like an outlier right now, water temps are primed and ready for tropical storm formation from not just El Niño but marine heat waves (MHWs) also (model from NOAA Coral Reef Watch):
The marine heat wave off the coasts of Mexico, Baja, and into SoCal, would provide fuel for newly formed hurricanes while high pressure inland would provide guidance into our swell window. All the ingredients are coming together but it's just potential at this point. This needs more monitoring, but as long as I have your support then I can continue to keep an eye on the Pacific to keep you posted. Please remember this report is funded by reader donations and your help is critical to keep this report alive (see why here).
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Here's a brief look at how the next few days are breaking down so far:
Friday the 19th looks about chest high at south facing spots.
Saturday the 20th looks about chest high at south facing spots.
Sunday the 21st looks about chest+ at south facing breaks.
Monday the 22nd looks about chest max at south facing breaks.
Tuesday the 23rd looks about waist to chest high at south facing spots.
Wednesday the 24th is expected to run chest to at times head high at south facing spots.
Thursday the 25th looks about chest to at times head high at south facing spots.
Friday the 26th, so far, looks about chest high at south facing spots.
Saturday the 27th, so far, looks about chest max at south facing breaks.
Sunday the 28th, so far, looks about chest max at south facing breaks.
Monday the 29th, so far, looks about waist to chest at south facing breaks.
Tuesday the 30th, so far, is expected to run chest high at south facing breaks.
Wednesday the 1st, so far, looks about chest high at south facing breaks.
Thursday the 2nd, so far, looks about chest high at south facing breaks.
Weather Outlook:
Today (Thursday the 18th) a robust onshore flow is underway as high pressure is weak over the region and a low in the Pacific is slowly moving toward the west coast. The onshore flow is so strong today that the LAX-DAG gradient (page 129) is forecast to reach 11mb this afternoon. A 10mb onshore push is very strong, so this will crank the onshore flow into high gear this afternoon; again Friday the 19th; and to a lesser degree Saturday the 20th. This will make for a stubborn marine layer at the coast with later than normal burn-offs.
Sunday the 21st into Monday the 22nd sees the onshore flow weaken as moderate high pressure builds over California and Nevada. A slight, offshore northerly gradient develops Monday the 22nd, which should help with the burn-off. All the while, the thermal inversion (page 131) stays moderate as lower- and upper-level air temps remain in lockstep at about Δ5-10°F.
Wednesday the 24th through the second half of next week should see high pressure strengthen across Arizona and New Mexico, stretching into Northern Mexico and SoCal. This would weaken the onshore flow; however, inland warming could result in a stronger inversion (page 134). At this point it looks zero-sum as and thickening of the marine layer from the inversion may not hold up against a weaker onshore flow. Shortly after that, by the weekend of the 27th or by Monday the 29th, we may see an influx of tropical moisture from that tropical storm pattern noted above, shown here again to save you from scrolling (model by NOAA MAG):
The most likely scenario is higher humidities, but the ECMWF model shows possible precip in SoCal sometime next week from an earlier formation of that pattern. I'd put precip in the next-to-nada category, but the potential for some tropical influence by the beginning of July is becoming a definite possibility.
Taking all of this into account, here's how I'm calling SoCal beach weather for the next few days:
Today (Thursday the 18th) is looking at a later than normal burn-off, best case early to mid afternoon, stubborn in many spots. Max beach temps should reach the mid to upper 60s.
Friday the 19th should see AM marine layer with burn-off by early afternoon and max beach temps in the mid to upper 60s.
Saturday the 20th should see AM marine layer. Marine layer will likely get scoured-out by late morning north of LA, but persist south of LA until noon or early afternoon. Max beach temps should reach the mid to upper 60s.
Sunday the 21st should see AM marine layer with burn-off by noon and max beach temps in the mid to upper 60s.
Monday the 22nd should see AM marine layer, burn-off by noon, and max beach temps in the mid to upper 60s.
Tuesday the 23rd, so far, is expected to see AM marine layer, burn-off by late morning, and max beach temps in the mid to upper 60s.
Wednesday the 24th, so far, is expected to see little to no AM marine layer with a quick burn-off where it does form. Max beach temps could reach the low 70s.
Thursday the 25th looks similar so far: little to no AM marine layer and max beach temps in the low 70s.
Wind Outlook:
Winds
at 6:00 AM were light and variable most everywhere with an onshore element. Some spots were reporting winds 5-10 mph from the WSW early this morning. Onshore winds should pick up mid to late morning and run 15 mph in the afternoon.
Friday the 19th should see AM light and variables with an onshore element and afternoon onshores to 15 mph.
Saturday the 20th should see AM light and variables with an onshore element and afternoon onshores to 15 mph.
Sunday the 21st should see lighter AM breezes, calm in some spots. Afternoon onshores will likely reach 10-15 mph.
Until my next report (Sunday), take care, be safe, and smile in the lineup!
