SoCal Forecast
Updated most Sundays, Tuesdays, and Thursdays
Tuesday 5/19/26 6:10 AM
By Nathan Cool
Surf Charts for SoCal
Rincon | Ventura, C-St. | County Line | Malibu | Hermosa | Huntington BeachTrestles | Old Mans | Oceanside | Beacons | Sunset Cliffs
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At a glance:
Today (Tuesday the 19th) we have a mild to moderate mix of NW and SW swells in SoCal. NW ground swell fills in later today, peaking Wednesday the 20th. Moderately sized SW ground swell is due early next week. A sizable SW ground swell is likely for the 31st-1st. And potential tropical swell is pinging SoCal's long range surf radar. Condition-wise: fair weather and winds through the forecast; the tide is swinging wide; and water temps are holding steady.
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Current Conditions:
Early this morning, periods were primarily running 11 seconds from 305°, periodically 17 seconds from 305°, and 14 seconds from 175°.
Most breaks were running waist to chest high.
Buoys in the outer waters were running 6'. Nearshore buoys were running 1.8' (south facing) to 2.3' (west facing).
Tide levels are still swinging wide from Saturday's New Moon. Today we have a -1.5' low around 6:30 AM, a 3.5' high around 1:30 PM, a 2.5' low around 5:30 PM, and a 6' high before midnight.
Water temps were holding steady, unphased by outer water upwelling. Most of SD and OC was running 62-65°. The USCG readings for LA, VC, and SB were once again unavailable. But Santa Monica Pier has been running 60-64° over the past 12 hours and Stearns Wharf reported 60° this morning.
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Surf Forecast:
Today (Tuesday the 19th) we have remnant, diminishing NW wind swell in SoCal with mild, background southern hemisphere ground swell. NW ground swell has started pinging buoys north of Pt. Conception for swell that will fill into SoCal later today, peaking Wednesday the 20th from this system that formed near the Aleutians (model from NOAA OPC):
With 25' seas from that location, SoCal's west facing breaks should run chest high Wednesday the 20th. Swell should be angled from 305° and periods 15 seconds. As this fades to waist high Thursday the 21st, minor southern hemisphere ground swell should come ashore to help south facing breaks with waist high waves.
Smaller surf is expected Friday the 22nd and Saturday the 23rd, knee to waist at most breaks.
Sunday the 24th is a turning point for southern hemisphere ground swell from a series of small-scaled storms that were directed north near New Zealand from this trough of low pressure that bulged the jetstream/storm-track northward (model by NOAA MAG):
Sunday the 24th should see the initial warm-up round with just waist high waves at south facing breaks. Monday the 25th should see an increase to chest high from a better-sized storm that peaked a couple days ago. This and other swells in that trough should keep chest high waves at south facing breaks Tuesday the 26th and Wednesday the 27th, dropping to waist high Thursday the 28th through Saturday the 30th. Swell should be angled from about 200° and periods 15 seconds most days.
Monday the 25th and Tuesday the 26th should also see NW ground swell in the mix from this high latitude system hugging the Aleutian Chain (model from NOAA OPC):
That's not an ideal course for SoCal with an unfavorable angular spread (page 52). With 25' seas, that works out to waist high waves at west facing breaks, angled from 310° and periods 15 seconds. Southern hemi swell will be dominant with better sized surf at south facing spots.
Sunday the 31st (building day with forerunners) into Monday the 1st (peak) will very likely see sizable southern hemisphere ground swell from two storms on the short range models near New Zealand. This is the bigger system, which should produce the bulk of the sets (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
Prior to that system on the 4-day models, another storm with 30-35 seas would skirt the lower latitudes, sending some swell to SoCal. But this larger system is expected to house seas in the 40' range with much longer, faster-traveling periods at 19 seconds — and forerunners over 20 seconds. Running the numbers this morning works out to head high sets at south facing breaks by Monday the 1st, angled from 210°. Sunday the 31st would see size start out with deceiving chest high sets, interspersed with outsider forerunners throughout the day (page 41). Models have pretty much stayed the course on this over the past few days and all models are well aligned. This puts confidence in the high category, especially since this is out on just the 4-day models.
Next up is potential for hurricane swell around the 6/5 timeframe as the extended long range models — and ensembles — show this storm tracking northward off Mexico (model by NOAA MAG):
That's looking 16 days into the future, which puts it in the wait-and-watch, low confidence category for now. However, given that we're seeing a marine heat wave (MHW) along with this year's developing El Niño, the storm track has high confidence as there is warmer than normal water in that storm's region. For now though it's a footnote and needs more monitoring. But as long as I have your support then I can continue to keep an eye on the Pacific to keep you posted. Please remember this report is funded by reader donations and your help is vital to keep it alive.
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Here's a brief look at how the next few days are breaking down so far:
Wednesday the 20th looks about chest high at west facing breaks and waist high at south facing spots.
Thursday the 21st looks about waist max at most breaks.
Friday the 22nd looks about waist max everywhere.
Saturday the 23rd looks about knee to waist everywhere.
Sunday the 24th looks about waist high at south facing breaks, smaller at west facing spots.
Monday the 25th looks about chest high at south facing breaks as southern hemi swell fills in. West facing breaks will likely run waist high.
Tuesday the 26th looks about chest high at south facing spots and waist high at west facing breaks.
Wednesday the 27th, so far, looks about chest max at south facing spots.
Thursday the 28th, so far, looks about waist high at south facing spots.
Friday the 29th, so far, looks about knee to waist everywhere.
Saturday the 30th, so far, looks about knee to waist everywhere.
Sunday the 31st, so far, is expected to see southern hemisphere ground swell fill in, starting out at chest high for the dawn patrols, bigger later in the day, and with forerunners throughout the day.
Monday the 1st, so far, is expected to run head high at south facing spots.
Tuesday the 2nd, so far, is expected to run head high at south facing spots.
Wednesday the 3rd, so far, is expected to run head high at south facing spots.
Thursday the 4th, so far, is expected to run chest high at south facing spots.
Weather Outlook:
Today (Tuesday the 19th) the late season Santa Ana is on the way out with a weak offshore gradient measuring 1.5mb this morning (on a scale of 1-10). Midmorning Santa Ana gusts could reach 15 mph along parts of the VC coast, but stay mild elsewhere this morning. This offshore flow is keeping skies rather clear at the coast today. A weak inversion over the next few days will inhibit marine layer development as well. The inversion should gain strength by the weekend, so morning marine layer is likely then.
Other weather features on the long range include a potential inside-slider low around Tuesday the 26th that could create an offshore wind event, although that looks mild at this point. Looking out further on the horizon there's potential for a cut-off low to pass through SoCal Monday 6/1, when a tropical storm might make its way north toward SoCal (model by NOAA MAG):
The cut-off low (top red arrow) looks dry, but it could thicken up the June Gloom and cool things down. The tropical system (bottom arrow) is the one holding potential for swell around 6/5. But that model is a 13-day look into the Pacific's crystal ball. It's far too early to take either of these systems with more than a grain of salt — for now. Still, I pushed ambitious yellow pins in my forecast charts this morning and if anything comes of them I'll let you know.
Taking all of this into account, here's how I'm calling SoCal beach weather for the next few days:
Today (Tuesday the 19th) looks clear with max beach temps around 70°.
Wednesday the 20th looks clear with beach max temps in the upper 60s.
Thursday the 21st should see a thin marine layer with a burn-off midmorning and max beach temps in the upper 60s.
Friday the 22nd should see AM marine layer, midmorning burn-off, and max beach temps in the upper 60s.
Saturday the 23rd is expected to see AM marine layer, mid to late AM burn-off, and max beach temps in the mid to upper 60s.
Sunday the 24th, so far, is expected to see AM marine layer, mid to late AM burn-off, and max beach temps in the mid to upper 60s.
Monday the 25th, so far, is expected to see AM marine layer, mid to late AM burn-off, and max beach temps in the mid to upper 60s.
Wind Outlook:
Winds
at 7:00 AM were calm at most beaches in SoCal. Offshore winds should increase by midmorning, reaching 15 mph at the most wind-prone spots of VC (like Pt. Mugu), but 5-10 mph elsewhere in SoCal. Onshores are expected this afternoon everywhere along the coast 10-15 mph.
Wednesday the 20th should see AM light and variables with a slight offshore element and afternoon onshores 8-12 mph.
Thursday the 21st should see AM light and variables and afternoon onshores 10-15 mph.
Friday the 22nd should see AM light and variables and afternoon onshores 10-15 mph.
Until my next report (Thursday), take care, be safe, and smile in the lineup!
