SoCal Forecast
Updated most Sundays, Tuesdays, and Thursdays
Sunday 11/8/26 7:00 AM
By Nathan Cool
Surf Charts for SoCal
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At a glance:
Today (Sunday the 8th) decently sized NW ground swell continues in SoCal. NW swell increases Monday the 9th. A good sized NW ground swell is due at the end of the week. Another NW swell is being watched for the 15th-16th. And more NW swell is pinging the long range. Condition-wise: mild Santa Ana with offshores for a few days; weather and winds shift later in the week; rain is in the forecast; tide levels are deep; water temps are well above normal throughout SoCal; and advisories are in effect.
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Current Conditions:
Early this morning, periods were primarily running 15 seconds from 305°.
Most west facing breaks were running head high with occasional pluses at standouts. Direct south facing spots were mostly chest high from the wrap (page 77).
Buoys in the outer waters were running 9-10'. Nearshore buoys were running 2.0' (south facing) to 3.6' (west facing).
Water temps continue to run above normal in SoCal, even out past the islands (model from NOAA OSPO):
Those yellow to brown areas off SoCal represent water temps 72-75°, which is well above the 62-65° temps we usually have this time of year. Along the coast, most of SD was running 75°. OC was mostly 71-73°. LA was running 72-74°. In VC, Channel Islands Harbor has been running 71-73° over the past 24 hours. In SB, Stearns Wharf reported 72° this morning.
Tidal Advisory: The warmer than normal water temps have increased sea levels 12-14" above normal in SoCal. We're also experiencing wider than normal tidal swings from a lunar nodal cycle this year. A New Moon cresting tonight is creating 6.5' predicted high-tides, which are actually more along the lines of 7.5-8' when adding the temperature-induced sea level rise. This will increase the chance for coastal flooding and further beach erosion. The NWS has issued advisories as well for SB, VC, and LA here and OC and SD here.
Hazard Warnings: NW ground swell has increased the risk of rip currents, especially at west facing beaches and during outgoing tides. Rogue waves are also somewhat likely over the next couple days. The NWS has issued advisories as well for SB, VC, and LA here and OC and SD here.
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Surf Forecast:
Today (Sunday the 8th) NW ground swell continues in SoCal and more is on the way as the jetstream (green) continues to form a textbook El Niño pattern (model by NOAA MAG):
The jetstream/storm-track is running uninterrupted across the entire North Pacific, guiding swell-making storms closer to the west coast of the U.S. This is also allowing storms to grow along the jet's contiguous course. It's only on the last leg of their journey that storms are thwarted to the north as high pressure sits over the American West. However, that final segment of the NorthPac jet will dip farther south into the SoCal latitudes at times. When it does, rain gets introduced into the forecast. Either way, Western Pacific storms now have an express lane to focus swell energy on California, and a number of them are in the forecast — starting now.
Monday the 9th, along with what's left of today's swell, we should see an increase from this system that peaked yesterday (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):
Housing seas in the 30' range at just 1000 nautical miles from SoCal, we should see high-consistency swell running 1-3' overhead at most west facing breaks Monday the 9th, angled from 315° and periods 16 seconds. Rogue waves from constructive interference remain a high probability (page 84). This NW swell should continue Tuesday the 10th with at least head high waves at west facing breaks, backing down to chest to head high Wednesday the 11th, and then chest high Thursday the 12th.
Friday the 13th will likely see the next NW swell from this system on the 2-day models taking a fairly low latitude course to the west coast (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):
Models are in agreement so it's a safe bet to call for sets running head high to 2' overhead at west facing breaks Friday the 13th. Swell should be angled from 295° and periods 16 seconds. This swell should continue with at least head high sets Saturday the 14th.
Sunday the 15th (building day) into Monday the 16th, could see the next NW ground swell from this rather robust system on the 5-day (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):
That's a massive fetch with seas easily running 35'. So far, that holds potential for surf running 2-4' overhead at west facing breaks, angled from 305° and periods 18 seconds.
BTW: There should be some southern hemisphere ground swell in SoCal from Saturday the 14th through Tuesday the 17th, which you may see on the automated charts or buoy spectra. But at waist to chest it should go unnoticed as diffracted, NW wrap should easily out do that at south facing breaks (page 77).
Wednesday the 18th or Friday the 20th (depending on the model) appears to be the next window of NW swell opportunity as the long range models show this system diving south in the Gulf toward SoCal (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):
It's early days, but this holds potential for surf running 1-3' overhead at west facing breaks with swell angled from 310° and periods 15-16 seconds.
On the El Niño front, NOAA will release their official monthly report this Thursday (the 12th). Their latest weekly assessment continues to show El Niño measuring 2.5°C, but it may be near its peak (model from NOAA CPC)
NOAA's PDF corrected models have been aligned for more than two weeks now on the idea that El Niño could weaken before our bigger-surf and heavier-rain months of January and February. This raises the probability for hefty WNW swells as we get into December versus waiting until January. The heaviest rain could fall earlier than normal as well. We'll know more though once NOAA releases their updated report on Thursday.
For the near term, the marine heat wave (MHW) off SoCal has expanded and is reaching past Oregon (model from NOAA Coral Reef Watch):
And as mentioned earlier, water temps off SoCal are running about 10°F above normal (model from NOAA OSPO):
As you may recall from earlier reports, the marine heat wave off SoCal started in 2025 and warmed this past summer from inland heatwaves and a lack of NW wind to induce California's usual cold-water upwelling. So before summer got underway, that marine wave was very warm and continued to warm (and grow) throughout the summer. As it warmed, Kelvin Waves in this year's El Niño added to this warmth; however, those were only a portion of the abnormal warmth off SoCal (more on that here). So with the marine heat wave so well established, it may stick around for a year or more after El Niño wanes.
That marine heat wave is causing issues for SoCal as it continues to raise sea levels to 1.5' above normal. This is compounded by an 18.6-year nodal lunar cycle that is creating higher tides this year, including king tides reaching 7.5' around the Christmas holiday. Add another 1.5' on top of that from sea-level rise and we have a 9' high tide Christmas Eve and Christmas Day.
All told, the Pacific is in a hyperactive state right now as we enter our NW swell season earlier than usual. There's a lot to monitor over the coming days, weeks, and months, but as long as I have your support then I can continue to watch the Pacific to keep you posted. Please remember this report is funded by reader donations and your help is vital to keep it alive (see why here).
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Here's a brief look at how the next few days are breaking down so far:
Monday the 9th is expected to run 1-3' overhead at west facing spots.
Tuesday the 10th should run head high to slightly overhead at west facing breaks.
Wednesday the 11th looks about chest to head high at west facing breaks.
Thursday the 12th should run chest high at west facing breaks.
Friday the 13th is expected to run head high to 2' overhead at west facing spots.
Saturday the 14th is expected to run head high+ at west facing breaks.
Sunday the 15th, so far, is expected to start out at chest to head high at west facing breaks but with bigger surf as the day progresses.
Monday the 16th, so far, looks about 2-4' overhead at west facing breaks.
Tuesday the 17th, so far, looks about 1-3' overhead at west facing breaks.
Weather Outlook:
Today (Sunday the 8th) high pressure over the American West will vary little through Wednesday the 11th for clear skies and a slight offshore flow. That high should break down during the second half of the week, leading to cooler weather. By the weekend, high pressure should move east as this rainy pattern develops off SoCal (model by NOAA MAG):
At first, a cut-off low (green arrow) is expected to swing into Northern Baja, which could bring light rain to parts of SoCal (mostly from LA south) Saturday the 14th. But then a trough of low pressure (red arrow) is expected to travel south into SoCal, bringing rain to all of SoCal Sunday the 15th. Models show another trough bringing rain Wednesday the 18th. This is a departure from model runs late last week, so I'd hold off on calling timing and amounts until my Tuesday report to see how well models align.
Taking all of this into account, here's how I'm calling SoCal beach weather for the next few days:
Today (Sunday the 8th) looks clear with max beach temps in the low 80s.
Monday the 9th looks clear with max beach temps in the low 80s.
Tuesday the 10th looks clear with max beach temps in the low 80s.
Wednesday the 11th looks clear with max beach temps in the low 80s.
Thursday the 12th should see a thin marine layer, quick burn-off, and max beach temps in the upper 70s.
Friday the 13th, so far, is looking at a thin AM marine layer, quick burn-off, passing high clouds, and max beach temps in the mid 70s.
Saturday the 14th, so far, holds a chance of rain, mostly from LA south, but possible into VC. Skies look partly- to mostly-cloudy. Beach max temps would reach the low 70s.
Sunday the 15th holds a better chance for rain — by the looks of things today. I'll have more on this in my next report.
Wind Outlook:
Winds
at 7:00 AM were light and variable most everywhere with a slight offshore element. Offshores should peak midmorning at 8-12 mph before turning lightly onshore this afternoon to 10 mph.
Monday the 9th should see AM offshores 5-10 mph and afternoon onshores to 10 mph.
Tuesday the 10th should see AM offshores 5-10 mph and afternoon onshores to 10 mph.
Wednesday the 11th should see AM offshores 5-10 mph and afternoon onshores to 10 mph.
Thursday the 12th, so far, is expected to see AM light and variables and afternoon onshores 8-12 mph.
Friday the 13th, so far, is looking at AM light and variables and afternoon onshores 15-20 mph.
Until my next report (Tuesday), take care, be safe, and smile in the lineup!
