SoCal Forecast
Updated most Sundays, Tuesdays, and Thursdays
Thursday 4/9/26 6:40 AM
By Nathan Cool
Surf Charts for SoCal
Rincon | Ventura, C-St. | County Line | Malibu | Hermosa | Huntington BeachTrestles | Old Mans | Oceanside | Beacons | Sunset Cliffs
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At a glance:
Today (Thursday the 9th) we have a minor mix of SW and NW swells in SoCal. Moderate SW ground swell is due Friday the 10th, peaking Saturday the 11th. NW wind swell is due Sunday the 12th into Monday the 13th. Minor southern hemi is due shortly after. And light to moderate NW ground swell is due late next week. Condition-wise: rain delayed but on the way; winds stronger than normal at times; tide levels are moderate; and water temps are fair.
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Current Conditions:
Early this morning, periods were primarily running 13 seconds from 180° and 11 seconds from 280°.
Most south facing spots were running waist to at times chest high. West facing breaks were mostly waist high.
Buoys in the outer waters were running 4-6'. Nearshore buoys were about 2.5'.
Tide levels are moderate for now. Today we had a 4' high around 2:00 AM that is slowly receding to a 0.7' low around 11:00 AM. That will slowly rise to a 4' high around 3:30 AM Friday.
Water temps were running 63-67° around most of SD. OC was more varied with Huntington Beach 62°, Newport 64°, and San Clemente Pier 69°. LA was mostly 63-66°, although Zuma reported cooler at 60°. In VC, Channel Islands Harbor reported 66° last night. In SB, recent USCG and Stearns Wharf readings were once again unavailable but the channel dipped to 59° this morning.
Surf Forecast:
Today (Thursday the 9th) recent southern hemisphere ground swell continues to fade along with NW wind swell that peaked yesterday. But we will see an increase in swell Friday.
Friday the 10th should see SW ground swell from this low latitude, Antarctic system that was southeast of New Zealand about ten days ago (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
That should produce chest high sets at south facing breaks building Friday the 10th into Saturday the 11th, angled from 205° with periods 16-17 seconds. We should also see intermittent NW ground swell from this system that was near Japan (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
That's just a waist high swell for west facing breaks Friday the 10th into Saturday the 11th, with swell angled from 305° and periods 14 seconds. Southern hemisphere ground swell will be dominant those days.
As for conditions, rain has been delayed with the bulk of the storm coming in Saturday night into Sunday, so conditions may be OK both Friday and Saturday for some spots. I'll break down the details in the Weather and Wind sections below.
Sunday the 12th (building day) into Monday the 13th should see an increase in WNW swell as this fetch forms when the weekend storm passes through SoCal (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
That'd put 12' seas just 300 nautical miles from LA, resulting in chest+ wind swell at SoCal's west facing breaks late Sunday the 12th into Monday the 13th, angled from 275° with periods 10 seconds. However, Sunday will likely see the bulk of the storm pass through SoCal with conditions poor on Sunday the 12th. Bacteria contamination from runoff starting Monday the 13th will be a concern.
Tuesday the 14th, as the wind swell starts to back off, we should see minor southern hemisphere ground swell from this low latitude system (red arrow) you might recall from my last report (model from ECMWF):
That essentially shows the jetstream/storm-track with the darker areas being the stormiest activity. The red arrow points to storm activity sending the swell to SoCal for the 14th. The blue arrow shows a slightly improved storm-track, bending the jet slightly to the north to send a bit more southerly swell our way a few days later. For Tuesday the 14th, that low latitude activity should result in initially just waist high waves at south facing breaks, angled from 205° and periods 15 seconds.
Friday the 17th (building day) into Saturday the 18th should see somewhat better-sized surf from this system guided in the northward jetstream bulge (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
That should produce waist to at times chest high sets at south facing breaks by Saturday the 18th, angled from 195° with periods 16 seconds. This should hover around waist to chest at south facing spots Sunday the 19th. Another system behind it on the 3-day models could provide waist high waves at south facing spots Monday the 20th, and then waist to chest Tuesday the 21st. That would be angled a bit steeper from 175° with periods 17 seconds. Longer range models show more activity in that region, although weaker, which would result in at least waist high waves at south facing breaks shortly after. However, there's a catch.
Friday the 17th into Saturday the 18th could see NW wind swell in the mix after a passing trough leaves a tight pressure gradient along the coast, kicking up strong winds centered off NorCal (model by UQAM):
Between a strong high off the PNW and a low near Baja (red arrows), a tight pressure gradient would form along the west coast, with wind gusts on that model measuring 35-40 mph off NorCal. SoCal would pick up some of the wind swell ginned up from those winds, about chest max by Saturday the 18th by the looks of things so far.
Monday the 20th into Tuesday the 21st could potentially see bigger NW wind swell as this deep, wide trough of low pressure could bear down on SoCal (model by NOAA MAG):
That's more than 10 days out, and with models not yet being consistent it's a yellow pin in the charts for now.
And last but not least, I posted the latest progress report, which unfortunately shows donations have declined for a second month in a row. So if this report has been helpful to you and you'd like to see it continue, then I'd really appreciate your support right now (more on that here).
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Here's a brief look at how the next few days are breaking down so far:
Friday the 10th should run chest high at south facing breaks but swell may be initially inconsistent as swell fills in. West facing spots should run waist high.
Saturday the 11th should run chest+ at south facing breaks and waist high at west facing spots.
Sunday the 12th looks about chest high at south facing breaks and waist to chest at west facing spots. Conditions are a concern (see Weather below).
Monday the 13th looks about chest high from wind swell at west facing breaks. South facing breaks should run waist high.
Tuesday the 14th looks about waist high at most breaks.
Wednesday the 15th looks about waist high at south facing spots and knee to waist at west facing spots.
Thursday the 16th, so far, is expected to run waist high at south facing spots and knee to waist at west facing spots.
Friday the 17th, so far, looks about waist to chest high at south facing spots. Wind swell is being monitored for this timeframe.
Saturday the 18th, so far, looks about chest high at south facing spots.
Sunday the 19th, so far, looks about waist to chest high at south facing spots.
Monday the 20th, so far, looks about waist to chest high at south facing breaks. Wind swell is being monitored for this timeframe.
Tuesday the 21st, so far, looks about waist to chest high at south facing breaks.
Wednesday the 22nd, so far, looks about waist high at south facing breaks.
Weather Outlook:
Today (Thursday the 9th) an onshore flow is underway as this low pressure system makes its way to the west coast, shown here late yesterday (image from NOAA GOES):
That low's counterclockwise swirl is visible from space, and it's making its way toward SoCal. However, that's just one low in a much larger trough, which complicates the weather forecast with not one, but two hits of precip (model by NOAA MAG):
That's the forecast for early Friday morning with the green arrow showing the first low making its way toward SoCal. That first low should brush SoCal before the second low (red arrow) tracks farther south, traveling through SoCal. It's the second low that should bring the bulk of the rain, which delays rain from earlier forecasts.
Most models agree that the first low will bring light precip to SB Friday the 10th, but not likely any farther south until Friday night into early Saturday morning. Saturday the 11th is then looking at light rain off and on, and there will likely be breaks in the sky cover at some point during the day at some spots. All models agree the second low will bring rain Saturday night into early morning Sunday the 12th with rain tapering off in the afternoon Sunday.
As for rain totals, most models agree on 0.5" for much of the SoCal coast. The more bullish models call for an inch in SB, VC, LA, and OC, with SD topping out at 0.5". I'm comfortable calling for 0.5-1" in SB, VC, LA, and OC, and 0.25-0.5" in SD. Most of this should be from the second low passing through SoCal Saturday night through Sunday.
Air temps will cool as both lows have cores at or near freezing a mile above sea level (850 hPa). This should put beach max temps in the low 60s. Overnight low temps Sunday night could reach the low 40s, mostly for inland areas as the cold core low, combined with less cloud cover to blanket in any heat, makes for a rather chilly night, and early morning Monday.
Monday the 13th should see clearing but an onshore flow should remain. However, marine layer will have a tough time forming as onshore winds should increase Monday in the wake of the storm's passing. This tends to scour-out marine layer early, signaling that "if it's clear, then winds are near". Week high pressure is expected Tuesday the 14th before a trough sags south to SoCal by the second half of next week. No rain is expected, just cooler with an onshore flow.
Saturday the 18th through Monday the 20th holds a slight chance for rain as this trough may work its way south to SoCal (model by NOAA MAG):
Most models keep that just north of SoCal for cool and windy weather. Only the ensemble models show rain, and even then they keep it minimal, mostly drizzle and far inland. It's a yellow-pin feature for the moment.
Taking all of this into account, here's how I'm calling SoCal beach weather for the next few days:
Today (Thursday the 9th) looks cloudy to partly-sunny with beach max temps in the mid 60s.
Friday the 10th could see rain at some point in SB, but not likely elsewhere until late Friday night. There may be breaks in the clouds at times, with the best chance for blue sky breaks south of LA. Beach max temps should reach the mid 60s.
Saturday the 11th should see morning marine layer followed by high clouds at times. There is a chance of rain at some point during the day, but only scattered, brief showers. Beach max temps should cool to the low 60s. Rain is expected in the evening.
Sunday the 12th should see rain with beach max temps in the low 60s.
Monday the 13th should see clear skies with beach max temps in the low 60s.
Tuesday the 14th will likely see a thin marine layer with a quick burn-off and max beach temps in the mid 60s.
Wednesday the 15th will likely see a thin marine layer with a quick burn-off and max beach temps in the mid 60s.
Wind Outlook:
Winds
at 6:00 AM were light and variable most everywhere. Afternoon onshores are expected to reach 15-20 mph from LA north and 10-15 mph south of LA.
Friday the 10th should see AM light and variables with afternoon onshores 8-12 mph.
Saturday the 11th should see AM light and variables with a southerly element. WSW winds are expected in the afternoon 10-15 mph.
Sunday the 12th should see westerly onshores early, running at least 10 mph for the dawn patrols, 15 mph by midmorning, and 20-25 mph in the afternoon, strongest from LA north.
Monday the 13th is expected to see early AM onshores to 10 mph, 15 mph by mid to late morning, and at least 20 mph in the afternoon.
Tuesday the 14th, so far, is expected to see AM light and variables with afternoon onshores 10-15 mph.
Until my next report (Sunday), take care, be safe, and smile in the lineup!
