SoCal Forecast
Updated most Sundays, Tuesdays, and Thursdays
Saturday 4/18/26 6:40 AM
By Nathan Cool
Surf Charts for SoCal
Rincon | Ventura, C-St. | County Line | Malibu | Hermosa | Huntington BeachTrestles | Old Mans | Oceanside | Beacons | Sunset Cliffs
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At a glance:
Today (Saturday the 18th) I'm posting my Sunday report a day early as we await the arrival of our 5th grandchild this weekend. I'll be posting the next report as usual on Tuesday. As for swell, today we have mostly moderate southern hemisphere ground swell in SoCal. NW ground swell is due Tuesday the 21st into Wednesday the 22nd. NW wind swell is due shortly after. Moderate southerly ground swell is due by Thursday the 23rd. NW swell from Sinlaku is due on the 26th-27th. Minor to moderate southern hemis are being watched for the end of the month. And I have an update on El Niño today. Condition-wise: rain in a few days; winds become strong at times; the tide is swinging wide; and water temps are fair.
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Current Conditions:
Early this morning, periods were primarily running 15 seconds from 185° and 11 seconds from 320°.
Most south facing spots were running waist to chest high. West facing breaks were mostly waist max.
Buoys in the outer waters were running 5'. Nearshore buoys were about 2' with southern hemi ground swell being the lion's share of that.
Tide levels are swinging wide from Friday's New Moon. Today we have a -1' low around 5:00 AM, a 4' high around 11:00 AM, a 1' low around 4:30 PM, and a 6.5' high around 10:30 AM.
Water temps were running 63-65° around most of SD, OC, and LA. For VC and SB, recent USCG and Stearns Wharf readings were once again unavailable but the SB channel has been running 57-59°, so nearshore water temps are likely running 60-62° in VC and SB.
Surf Forecast:
Today (Saturday the 18th) we're seeing the on-time arrival of southerly ground swell from this system you might recall from earlier reports that broke off Antarctica about 10 days ago (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
NW energy is minimal around SoCal right now, making the southern hemi dominant. This should continue to run waist to chest at south facing spots Sunday the 19th, backing off to waist max Monday the 20th.
Tuesday the 21st (building day) into Wednesday the 22nd (peak) should see an increase in NW ground swell from this fetch off the PNW (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
This morning's models have stayed the course with 20'+ seas, but with an almost direct southerly course. This works out to chest high waves at SoCal's west facing breaks by Wednesday the 22nd with swell angled from 305° and periods 14 seconds. But as you may recall from earlier reports this week, that fetch is tied to a low that will bring some precip to SoCal Tuesday the 21st, with winds and wind swell shortly after (model by NOAA MAG):
I'll break down the weather and winds in those sections below. As for swell, that low should whip up winds Wednesday the 22nd, resulting in wind swell Thursday the 23rd that should run chest high at west facing breaks. But that's not all.
Wednesday the 22nd (building day) into Thursday the 23rd (peak day) should also see southerly ground swell from this system that broke off Antarctica about a week ago (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
That should produce chest high sets at SoCal's south facing breaks by Thursday the 23rd, angled from 180-185° and periods 16 seconds. So all told, most breaks are looking at chest high surf Thursday the 23rd — west facing breaks from wind swell; south facing spots from southern hemi ground swell with some NW wrap. The wind swell should back off Friday the 24th as the southern hemi produces chest max sets at south facing breaks. This should back off to waist high or so Saturday the 25th.
Sunday the 26th (building day) into Monday the 27th should see spotty NW ground swell from what was Super Typhoon Sinlaku, shown here as that storm turns east to send swell our way about 24 hours from now (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
Running the numbers on the 24-hour models results in chest+ waves at SoCal's west facing breaks; however, that storm is 4,400 nautical miles from SoCal, so swell will be inconsistent. Few waves per set and long lulls between sets should be expected. Swell should be angled from 295° with periods 17 seconds initially. This swell should hover around chest max Tuesday the 28th and waist high Wednesday the 29th, staying inconsistent all the while.
Tuesday the 28th could see wind swell build from a trough that may push south toward SoCal. Southern hemi will be in the mix as well. The southerly swell isn't worth a graphic with just waist max waves at south facing breaks, but the wind swell needs more monitoring as some models suggest it building through Thursday the 30th. Being so far out on the long range, the wind swell is more of a footnote for now.
Thursday the 30th could see southerly ground swell from this low latitude system skirting Antarctica, west of Chile (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
That's a bit late in our swell window, traveling too far east with hardly any northward track. So far, this works out to waist+ waves at south facing breaks with chest high pluses at standouts, angled from 185° and periods 16 seconds. I'll need a few more days to confirm.
Looking out further on the long range, I wanted to address the "Super El Niño" you may have heard or read about lately. The recent "if it bleeds it leads" headline hype doesn't tell the full story, favoring clickbait over facts. Yes, we are going to enter El Niño this year. The strength though is undetermined, which we can see here on this graph showing an abundance of model predictions (image from IRI):
A "Super" El Niño (a terrible name given by the media, not climate scientists), would be something over 2°C. But we can see that most models keep it at or below 1.5°C in the 3-month forecasts (MAM = March April May, AMJ = April May June, etc.). The thick green line is the statistical average using past events as a baseline for current readings, which puts the Niño strength below 1°C. The dynamic average, which takes into account more recent changes from short term measurements, tops out at 1.5°C. So if we look at what this means for probability of a strong or weak El Niño, it would look like this (image from NOAA CPC):
During the winter (NDJ = November December January) a "Very Strong" El Niño falls under about a 30% chance, and a weak El Niño is about over 40% chance. So bottom line, much of the media is once again producing industrialized fear with small smatterings of truth that lean toward worst-case, low probability scenarios.
Could this winter be a "Very Strong" El Niño? Possibly, but that's actually a low to medium chance. Even then, it wouldn't mean we'd see catastrophic rain or epic swells, which is something I explain further in my book Surf, Flood, Fire & Mud. It's too early to call, and far too early to sound the alarm.
In any event, there's a lot to monitor across the Pacific — not just seasonally, but for the short term as well. But as long as I have your support then I can continue watching the Pacific to keep you posted. Please remember this report is funded by reader donations and your help is essential right now to keep this report alive (more on that here).
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Here's a brief look at how the next few days are breaking down so far:
Sunday the 19th looks about waist high at most spots with some pluses at south facing spots.
Monday the 20th is expected to run waist high at most breaks.
Tuesday the 21st, is expected to run chest max at west facing breaks and waist high at south facing spots.
Wednesday the 22nd looks about chest high at west facing breaks and waist high at south facing spots.
Thursday the 23rd, so far, holds potential for at least chest high NW wind swell in SoCal. South facing breaks should run chest high from southern hemi ground swell.
Friday the 24th, so far, looks about chest high at south facing breaks and waist to chest at west facing spots.
Saturday the 25th, so far, looks about waist high at most spots.
Sunday the 26th, so far, is expected to run waist high at most breaks with occasional chest high pluses at standout west facing breaks.
Monday the 27th, so far, looks about chest+ at west facing breaks but with highly inconsistent sets with few waves per set and long lulls between sets. South facing spots look about waist high.
Weather Outlook:
Today (Saturday the 18th) high pressure remains over SoCal but will weaken Monday before this low approaches SoCal (model by NOAA MAG):
All models are aligned today on rain Tuesday the 21st from that system, but mostly for SB. Most models show SB and some parts of northern/western VC seeing 0.5" of rain, but most of SoCal would see 0.1" max, including a good part of VC too.
Models are in fair agreement on fairly clear skies starting Wednesday the 22nd as NW winds increase in the wake of the passing low. This would make for fairly windy days Wednesday the 22nd and Thursday the 23rd (see below). Models hint at another trough of low pressure pushing south toward SoCal Friday the 24th, which may turn into a windy inside slider. Either way, rain is absent from the forecast after Tuesday the 21st — by the looks of things today.
Taking all of this into account, here's how I'm calling SoCal beach weather for the next few days:
Today (Saturday the 18th) should see mostly sunny skies with some high clouds passing at times and beach max temps in the upper 60s.
Sunday the 19th should be mostly clear with possibly some thin marine layer early, but not for low. Max beach temps should run in the mid 60s.
Monday the 20th should have a thin marine layer with a quick burn-off and max beach temps in the mid 60s.
Tuesday the 21st should see rain, although mostly across SB with light amounts for the other four coastal counties. Max beach temps should run in the low 60s.
Wednesday the 22nd should see mostly sunny skies with passing high clouds and max beach temps in the mid 60s.
Thursday the 23rd should see AM marine layer, midmorning burn-off, and max beach temps in the mid 60s.
Wind Outlook:
Winds
at 6:00 AM were light and variable most everywhere. Afternoon onshores should reach 10 mph.
Sunday the 19th is expected to see AM light and variables with a slight onshore element and afternoon onshores to 10 mph.
Monday the 20th is expected to see early AM onshores 3-5 mph, increasing to 15 mph by noon.
Tuesday the 21st is looking at onshores picking up early with an ESE element, increasing to 15 mph by noon, staying 15 mph in the afternoon.
Wednesday the 22nd, so far, is looking at early AM onshores around 10 mph, increasing to 15 mph mid to late morning, and then 20 mph in the afternoon. Winds may gust over 25 mph at times in the afternoon north of LA.
Until my next report (Tuesday), take care, be safe, and smile in the lineup!
