SoCal Forecast
Updated most Sundays, Tuesdays, and Thursdays
Thursday 4/2/26 6:10 AM
By Nathan Cool
Surf Charts for SoCal
Rincon | Ventura, C-St. | County Line | Malibu | Hermosa | Huntington BeachTrestles | Old Mans | Oceanside | Beacons | Sunset Cliffs
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At a glance:
Today (Thursday the 2nd) is starting out as a small day for surf in SoCal but that will change shortly. At first, we'll see a temporary increase in NW wind swell later today into Friday the 3rd. Cleaner, moderately sized southern hemisphere ground swell builds Saturday the 4th, peaking Sunday the 5th. A SW-NW ground swell combo is becoming likely for Friday the 10th. NW wind swell is being monitored for that timeframe as well. And then a series of southern hemi swells could come ashore starting Tuesday the 14th, lasting (and building) for a good seven days, or more. Condition-wise: Santa Ana shortly; winds problematic at times for some spots; rain on the long range; tide levels are recuperating from the recent swing; water temps are fair; and water-contact advisories are in effect.
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Current Conditions:
Early this morning, periods were primarily running 15 seconds from 170°, 13 seconds from 300°, and 6 seconds from 280°.
Most west facing breaks were running waist high. South facing spots were mostly knee to waist.
Buoys in the outer waters were running 5'. Nearshore buoys were running 2.0-2.5'.
Tide levels are recuperating from the recent swing. Today we have a -0.2' low around 4:30 AM, a 4.5' high around 10:30 AM, a 0.5' low around 4:00 PM, and a 5.5' high around 10:30 PM.
Water temps were running 64-67° around most of SD and OC. LA was mostly 62°. In VC, Channel Islands Harbor reported 65° last night. In SB, Stearns Wharf reported 65° this morning.
Water Contact Advisory: Some areas received enough rain Tuesday evening to increase the risk of contamination from runoff. This is affecting SB, VC, and LA where many coastal stations were reporting 0.2-0.5" of rain. Farther south, OC and SD coastal stations were reporting 0.05". As a reminder, there is a risk of high bacteria levels for at least 72 hours following any measurable rain event (usually 0.1" or more) during which time water contact should be avoided.
Surf Forecast:
Today (Thursday the 2nd) NW wind swell is on the rise in the outer waters as winds picked up in earnest starting late yesterday, gusting around 25 mph this morning in the outer waters. This is in response to the passing trough of low pressure that brought the recent rain. This wind swell won't last long as the pattern will shift offshore for a Santa Ana starting Friday the 3rd (see Weather and Wind sections below). Before then, this should increase wind swell at west facing breaks in SoCal today — along with robust afternoon onshores — with wind swell peaking Friday the 3rd at chest high at west facing breaks. This will mix with ground swell kicked up by a low that was in the Gulf of Alaska, adding some longer periods in the mix Friday the 3rd and Saturday the 4th. Size won't change, staying at chest high at west facing breaks Friday the 3rd. Periods though should run a wide range from 7-12 seconds with swell angled from 290-315°.
Saturday the 4th, as wind swell drops off and the minor Gulf swell lingers, southerly ground swell should build, peaking Sunday the 5th from this activity that broke off Antarctica late last week (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
That was a tad east of the SoCal longitude, coming in from a SSE angle; however, the course was ideal with plenty of northward momentum. This should bring initially waist to chest high sets to south facing breaks Saturday the 4th as this swell fills in; chest+ Sunday the 5th; chest high Monday the 6th; waist to at times chest high Tuesday the 7th; and then waist high Wednesday the 8th and Thursday the 9th. Swell should be angled from 175-180° with periods 16 seconds.
Friday the 10th should see SW ground swell from this low latitude, Antarctic system that was southeast of New Zealand (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
That should produce chest high sets at south facing breaks Friday the 10th, angled from 205° with periods 16-17 seconds. We'll also likely see intermittent NW ground swell from this system on the 24-hour models near Japan (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
That will likely add sporadic chest max sets to west facing breaks Friday the 10th, angled from 305° and periods 15-16 seconds. There'd be few waves per set and long lulls between sets, but there's a catch.
Thursday the 9th and/or Friday the 10th could see NW wind swell as this low pressure system could swing into SoCal (model by NOAA MAG):
As you might recall from earlier reports, models have been all over the place with wind swell late next week, and even today there is doubt as models lack consensus. However, they are starting to align on some form of low pressure either passing near or through SoCal so confidence is increasing. Some models show this kicking up wind swell as early as Wednesday the 8th, but most like the idea of wind swell by Friday the 10th. The pass-through-SoCal scenario on that low smacks of rain, and I'll talk about that in the Weather section below.
Tuesday the 14th is the next swell on my charts this morning, which could be the first in a series of southern hemi ground swells including this one that'd drift north off Antarctica near New Zealand (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
A system prior to that should peak in 48 hours, resulting in initially waist to chest high waves at south facing breaks Tuesday the 14th, angled from 205° with periods 16 seconds. And then, that swell above would keep size closer to chest high at south facing breaks Wednesday the 15th and Thursday the 16th, angled similarly from 205° with periods 15 seconds. That particular swell would linger Friday the 17th before getting a boost in size from this system closer to Chile on the 7-day models (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
That could increase size at south facing breaks to chest+ Saturday the 18th with swell angled from 185° and periods 16 seconds. As that swell continues Sunday the 19th, yet another swell could come ashore from this system on the 9-day models (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
So far, that looks about chest+ at south facing spots Sunday the 19th and Monday the 20th. There are more systems on the longer range too, but this needs more monitoring.
And last but not least, I posted the latest progress report, which unfortunately shows donations have declined for a second month in a row. So if this report has been helpful to you, I'd really appreciate your support right now (more on that here).
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Here's a brief look at how the next few days are breaking down so far:
Friday the 3rd looks about chest high at west facing breaks and waist max at south facing spots.
Saturday the 4th looks about waist to chest at south facing spots and waist to at times chest high at west facing breaks.
Sunday the 5th is expected to run chest+ at south facing breaks and waist high at west facing spots.
Monday the 6th looks about chest high at south facing spots and knee to waist at west facing spots.
Tuesday the 7th looks about waist to chest at south facing spots and waist high at west facing spots.
Wednesday the 8th, so far, looks about waist high at most breaks; however, there is a chance that NW wind swell could start to build around this time.
Thursday the 9th, so far, looks similar, with wind swell being monitored.
Friday the 10th, so far, looks about chest high at south and west facing breaks, but NW wind swell needs more monitoring.
Saturday the 11th, so far, looks about chest high at most breaks, but NW wind swell needs more monitoring.
Sunday the 12th, so far, looks about waist to chest at most breaks.
Monday the 13th, so far, looks about waist high at south facing breaks, smaller at west facing spots.
Tuesday the 14th, so far, looks about waist to chest at south facing spots and knee to waist at west facing breaks.
Wednesday the 15th, so far, looks about waist to chest at south facing spots and knee to waist at west facing breaks.
Thursday the 16th, so far, looks about chest high at south facing breaks and knee to waist at west facing spots.
Friday the 17th, so far, looks about waist to chest at south facing spots and knee to waist at west facing breaks.
Saturday the 18th, so far, holds potential for an increase in size at south facing breaks. For now, it looks about chest+ but this needs more monitoring.
Weather Outlook:
Today (Thursday the 2nd) the recently stormy trough of low pressure has passed to the east. In its wake, a northerly wind event will get underway today as high pressure builds over the American West. This will create a northeast Santa Ana Friday the 3rd, weakening over the weekend. Models are split three ways on this with the far end of the spectrum being a light to moderate 3.5mb (on a scale of 1-10) on the GFS model, but 6mb on the NAM. The ECMWF falls in between. The NAM tends to overdo Santa Anas and the GFS underplays them. I'd feel comfortable calling for a 4mb event (moderate), but isolated across mostly Ventura County as far as the coast goes. There should be decently strong winds farther inland. All models continue an easterly gradient Saturday the 4th while weakening the northerly gradient; thus, the Santa Ana should weaken Saturday morning and stay mostly contained to VC. I'll break down the winds below. As for air temps, beaches should stay cool today in the mid 60s, but then warm into the mid 70s Friday through the weekend.
Monday the 6th sees the high break down for a cooling trend as this area of low pressure approaches the coast, which could eventually pass through SoCal during the second half of the week (model by NOAA MAG):
Models are aligning rather well this morning on rain as early as Thursday the 9th, lasting well through Friday the 10th. Some of this could be heavy with some models showing over an inch; however, that might not be for all of SoCal. For instance, if that low swings in from that far south, then SD and OC could see the bulk of the rain. All areas show rain on the long range — they just differ on timing and accumulations for the five coastal counties. I should be able to narrow-in on this in my next report.
Taking all of this into account, here's how I'm calling SoCal beach weather for the next few days:
Today (Thursday the 2nd) looks fairly cloudy as marine layer comes and goes this morning along with a fairly decent upper-level cloud deck. The afternoon looks clearer but windier (see below). Beach max temps should reach the mid 60s.
Friday the 3rd should see little to no marine layer. Beach max temps should warm to the mid 70s.
Saturday the 4th looks clear with beach max temps in the mid 70s.
Sunday the 5th looks clear with beach max temps in the low to mid 70s.
Monday the 6th is looking at partly- to mostly-cloudy skies with max beach temps in the mid 60s.
Tuesday the 7th, so far, is looking at early AM marine layer with a midmorning burn-off and max beach temps in the mid 60s.
Wednesday the 8th, so far, is looking at early AM marine layer with an early morning burn-off and max beach temps in the mid 60s. Skies could cloud-up later in the afternoon.
Thursday the 9th, so far, holds a chance of rain. I'll have more on this in my upcoming reports.
Wind Outlook:
Winds
at 6:00 AM were onshore in most spots 4-8 mph. Afternoon onshores should reach 15-20 mph, strongest mid to late afternoon.
Friday the 3rd should see light AM offshores 5-10 mph. By midmorning, wind-prone spots like VC should see NE winds around 15 mph with stronger gusts to 20+ mph at times at the most wind-prone spots. Elsewhere, NE winds should top out at 8-12 mph. Winds should relax sometime in the afternoon.
Saturday the 4th is expected to see AM offshores to 10 mph in most spots, but up to 15 mph around the wind-prone sections of VC. Winds should calm during the afternoon.
Sunday the 5th is expected to see AM offshores 4-8 mph and afternoon onshores around 10 mph.
Monday the 6th is expected to see AM light and variables with afternoon onshores around 15 mph.
Tuesday the 7th is expected to see AM light and variables with an onshore element and afternoon onshores 15-20 mph.
Until my next report (Saturday), take care, be safe, and smile in the lineup!
