SoCal Forecast
Updated most Sundays, Tuesdays, and Thursdays

Sunday 10/4/26 6:15 AM
By Nathan Cool

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At a glance:
Today (Sunday the 4th) we have a light mix of NW and SW swells in SoCal. Swell from Rachel builds Tuesday the 6th through Thursday the 8th. Southern hemi ground swell is due by the end of the week. Minor NW ground swell is due by the end of the week as well. Swell from Choi-Wan is likely by the 12th. We may see SE swell then too. Southern hemisphere ground swell is due on the 13th. Another southern hemi is being watched for the 18th. And I have an update on El Niño today. Condition-wise: clear skies for a while but change is in store by the weekend with precip chances shortly after; winds trend offshore for the mornings; tide levels swing wider this week; and water temps remain warm.

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Current Conditions:
Early this morning, periods were primarily running 14 seconds from 205° and 9 seconds from 320°.

Most breaks were running waist high with occasional chest high pluses at standouts.

Buoys in the outer waters were running 4'. Nearshore buoys were running 1.7' (south facing) to 2.2' (west facing).

Tide levels will swing wider each day this week as we approach a New Moon Saturday the 10th. Today we have a 4' high around 7:00 AM, a 3.2' low around 11:00 AM, and a 5.3' high around 5:00 PM.

Water temps were running 72-74° around most of SD and OC. LA was running 73-75° in most spots. In VC, Channel Islands Harbor reported 70° last night. In SB, Stearns Wharf reported 71° this morning.

Surf Forecast:
Today (Sunday the 4th) is a mild day in the SoCal surf zone and there won't be much change Monday the 5th.

Tuesday the 6th should see the initial swell from Rachel, which will fill in better Wednesday the 7th, peaking Thursday the 8th. Here's how that storm should look tomorrow when entering our more ideal swell window, west of Cabo (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):

Taking a westerly course will result in a fair amount of angular decay (page 52). And seas are only expected to reach 23'. Today, Rachel is approaching our swell window, sending 165° swell energy to SoCal, which is a tough angle for SoCal surf (page 45). That's the portion of swell that will fill in Tuesday the 6th with chest high sets at breaks that can work a steep SE angle (mostly parts of OC). Other south facing breaks won't see nearly as much swell Tuesday. But on Wednesday the 7th, the swell angle should improve to 170-175° with most south facing breaks running chest high, with slightly better size at standout SE exposed spots. Thursday the 8th should then run chest+ at most south facing breaks as the angle improves further to 180-185°. Periods should run 12 seconds max. Friday the 9th should see similar size from Rachel, although other swells should also arrive then.

Thursday the 8th (building day) into Friday the 9th (peak) along with swell from Rachel, we should also see SW ground swell from this system that was near New Zealand about a week ago (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):

That should add chest high sets to south facing breaks Friday the 9th, angled from 210° with periods 16 seconds..

Friday the 9th, along with Rachel and the New Zealand swell, we'll should also see spotty, intermittent NW ground swell from this system, circled in white, smashing into the Aleutian Chain (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):

That Aleutian swell isn't positioned ideally for SoCal swell, but it should result in waist to chest high waves at west facing breaks Friday the 9th, angled from 310° and periods 15 seconds. South facing breaks should do better at chest+ from the southern hemi and Rachel mix.

Saturday the 10th (building day) into Sunday the 11th (peak) should see SW ground swell from this deep low latitude storm that peaked a couple days ago (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):

Although housing 40' seas this morning, it moved on a direct easterly course, sending only a fraction of swell to SoCal. Saturday the 10th should run chest max at south facing breaks from the previous swells (waist to chest at west facing spots). But then Sunday the 11th should run chest high with occasional pluses at south facing breaks with swell angled from 200° and periods 17-19 seconds.

Monday the 12th, as that southern hemi continues, we'll likely see intermittent NW ground swell from Super Typhoon Choi-Wan, shown here on the 3-day models (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):

Choi-Wan is kicking up 48' seas this morning and will turn slightly into our swell window in a few days with 45' seas. However, that's a terrible course for SoCal surf with just a fraction of swell reaching SoCal from a high angular spread (page 52). Sunday the 11th would see occasional forerunners in the 22-second range at west facing breaks, but the peak swell would arrive Monday the 12th. Running the numbers this morning, this works out to chest high sets at west facing breaks Monday the 12th with some head high pluses at standouts. However, given its distance and course, sets would be highly inconsistent with very few waves per set and exceptionally long lulls between sets. Swell would be angled from 305° with periods 20 seconds Monday the 12th. But wait! There's more...

Monday the 12th has a chance of seeing southerly swell from what could become hurricane Simon, caught up in a weather pattern that could affect SoCal this weekend into early next week (model by NOAA MAG):

I'll break down what this means for temps and possible rain in the Weather section below. As for swell, Simon might hold chest+ swell potential for south facing breaks Monday the 12th, but there's a lot working against that storm as the cut-off low to its north, backed by a cool trough north of that, would divert Simon away from our swell window. It's too early to bother working the numbers for Simon's potential surf, but it earned a yellow pin in my charts this morning.

Tuesday the 13th — Simon or no — should see SW ground swell from this storm moving north off Antarctica today (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):

That should produce chest+ sets at south facing breaks Tuesday the 13th and Wednesday the 14th, and then chest max Thursday the 15th and waist to chest Friday the 16th, diminishing to waist high Saturday the 17th. Swell should be angled from 205° with periods 16 seconds.

Sunday the 18th could see SW ground swell from this system on the 5-day; however, other models are more bullish (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):

That's the GFS's take on it with 25-30' seas. The ECMWF though shows 40'+ seas, which would result in bigger surf with ETA a day earlier. Working off the GEFS ensemble to get a reasonable middle ground, this, so far, looks like a chest high swell at south facing breaks, angled from 195-200° with periods 16 seconds.

Looking out on the longer range, the latest El Niño forecast shows we're nearing the peak for a very strong El Niño, although not necessarily historic (image from NOAA CPC):

That "corrected" model shows the more likely scenario with this year's El Niño peaking over the next couple months at around 2.1-2.4°C. That's the model mean (thick line), and outliers show stronger and weaker scenarios. By comparison, the El Niño of 2015-16 measured 2.6°C, and the 1997-98 Niño was 2.4°C. Anything above 2°C is considered a "very strong" El Niño, so we're on track for a potentially active winter of bigger swells and higher rain amounts. However, as you might recall from my recent discussion on the El Niño-related Kelvin Wave affecting SoCal, a higher El Niño signal doesn't always result in a wet winter, or more active swell season.

For instance, looking back at 2015, which had a strong El Niño signal (what some called "The Godzilla" El Niño), rain totals were below normal. Sure, 2015 had warmer water temps in the El Niño zones, but almost all of the North Pacific was warm too (model from NOAA Coral Reef Watch):

That is one reason why 2015 was not all it was hyped up to be (something I talk about in Surf, Flood, Fire & Mud). Looking at the present day, the same thing is happening right now (model from NOAA Coral Reef Watch):

We can see the red tongue of warm water extending off Peru. That's El Niño. But there is warm water across the entire North Pacific too, with exceptionally warm water off Baja and south of the Aleutians (known as marine heat waves). When we take a look at 1997, things were much different (model from NOAA Coral Reef Watch):

In this older model, the Pacific is split across the left and right sides of the image. But notice all the blue, colder water in the Pacific, which was about -2°C cooler than normal. When El Niño peaked in 1997-98 at 2.4°C, those equatorial temps off Peru were much warmer than the rest of the Pacific. The difference between warm El Niño waters and cool North Pacific waters was about Δ4°C. Today it's about Δ2°C. Weather, winds, and waves all start from a "difference" in temperature: the greater the difference, the stronger the storm/winds/waves. With less difference today, a warm El Niño reading doesn't quite mean the same thing it did in 1997. But that's only one aspect. There are numerous other variables and cycles that can affect how El Niño will behave. Nevertheless, a 2.1-2.4°C El Niño right now means we should prepare for the worst while knowing things might not be. The El Niño forecast gives us insight, but not assuredness. But there is something else to be aware of.

Water temps are much warmer than normal off SoCal and Baja, related to the Kelvin Waves this year. While these Kelvin Waves are a normal part of all El Niños, warm waters cause sea levels to rise from thermal expansion. It happens with all El Niños. Right now, sea levels off SoCal are 6-12" higher than normal. Once again, this happens with all El Niños. But when you add another foot to a King Tide of 7', then we have an 8' high tide — something that will happen around the Christmas Holiday this year with King Tides over 7' starting 12/23 through 12/25, which will equate to high tides over 8. If we get an El Niño-driven storm at that time, then sea levels could rise even more from storm surge. So even if we don't see "frequent" El Niño storms this winter — like what happened during the somewhat eventful 2015-16 El Niño — the storms that do come ashore could create more damage and hazardous conditions than normal from a much higher risk of coastal flooding.

In any case, there's a lot to monitor in the coming days, weeks and months. And as long as I have your support then I can continue to keep an eye on the Pacific to keep you posted. Please remember this report is funded by reader donations and your help is needed to keep it alive (see why here).

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Here's a brief look at how the next few days are breaking down so far:

Monday the 5th looks about waist high everywhere.

Tuesday the 6th should run chest high at south facing breaks able to work a 165° swell angle; however, other south facing breaks should run waist high. West facing breaks should run waist max.

Wednesday the 7th is expected to run chest high at south facing breaks and waist high at west facing spots.

Thursday the 8th is expected to run chest+ at south facing breaks and waist high at west facing spots.

Friday the 9th looks about chest+ at south facing breaks and waist to chest at west facing spots.

Saturday the 10th looks about chest high at south facing spots and waist to chest at west facing spots.

Sunday the 11th, so far, looks about chest high at south facing breaks and waist to chest at west facing spots.

Monday the 12th, so far, looks about chest high at south facing breaks. West facing breaks are looking at sporadic sets running chest high or better, but infrequent.

Tuesday the 13th, so far, looks about chest+ at south facing breaks and intermittently chest high at west facing spots.

Wednesday the 14th, so far, looks about chest+ at south facing breaks and waist high at west facing spots.

Thursday the 15th, so far, looks about chest high at south facing breaks and waist high at west facing spots.

Friday the 16th, so far, looks about waist to chest at south facing breaks.

 

Weather Outlook:
Today (Sunday the 4th) a moderately strong high is centered over Arizona, creating an offshore flow through SoCal. This is creating quite a warm-up as the LAX-DAG gradient is measuring above model expectations at -4.2 mb (page 129). This is creating a good deal of compressional heating (page 143), while keeping skies clear and humidity low. That high should weaken only slightly Monday the 5th, and then a bit more Tuesday the 6th and Wednesday the 7th. By the end of the week, we should see the weather pattern shift for a cooler weekend, not just from a trough of low pressure but a cut-off low too. Here's that model again to save you from scrolling (model by NOAA MAG):

Some marine layer comes back into the picture late this week, but tropical clouds are also expected from Rachel's remnants as that low is expected to move close to SoCal. Light rain has been on most models the past couple days for Monday the 12th. Before then, Saturday the 10th and Sunday the 11th will likely see some amount of tropical clouds stream into SoCal, increasing humidity too, but with cooler air temps as the offshore flow shifts to slightly onshore.

Taking all of this into account, here's how I'm calling SoCal beach weather for the next few days:

Today (Sunday the 4th) should see clear skies at the coast with max beach temps in the upper 80s.

Monday the 5th should see no AM marine layer and max beach temps in the upper 80s.

Tuesday the 6th should see no AM marine layer and max beach temps in the mid 80s.

Wednesday the 7th should see no AM marine layer and max beach temps in the low 80s.

Thursday the 8th should see a thin marine layer with burn-off early to mid morning and max beach temps around 80°.

Friday the 9th should see see AM marine layer, midmorning burn-off, and max beach temps in the upper 70s. Tropical clouds may start streaming in during the afternoon.

 

Wind Outlook:
Winds at 7:00 AM were light and variable most everywhere with an offshore element. Onshores should run 5-10 mph this afternoon.

Monday the 5th should see light AM offshores 4-8 mph and afternoon onshores to 10 mph.

Tuesday the 6th should see AM light and variables and afternoon onshores to 10 mph.

Wednesday the 7th should see AM light and variables and afternoon onshores to 10 mph.

Thursday the 8th should see AM light and variables and afternoon onshores to 10 mph.

Friday the 9th will likely see AM light and variables with afternoon onshores to 15 mph.

 

Until my next report (Tuesday), take care, be safe, and smile in the lineup!

—Nathan

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