SoCal Forecast
Updated most Sundays, Tuesdays, and Thursdays
Tuesday 10/6/26 6:20 AM
By Nathan Cool
Surf Charts for SoCal
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At a glance:
Today (Tuesday the 6th) SE swell from Rachel is filling in and will improve Wednesday the 7th and Thursday the 8th. SW ground swell is due Friday the 9th with background NW ground swell. Moderate SW ground swell is due this weekend. Spotty, yet moderately sized NW ground swell from Choi-Wan is due early next week. Wind swell is also being watched for early next week. Decent sized SW ground swell is due Tuesday the 13th. And another southern hemi is being watched for the 18th. Condition-wise: rain is in the forecast; winds pick up in a few days; tide levels swing wider over the next few days; and water temps have warmed in many spots.
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Current Conditions:
Early this morning, periods were primarily running 11-13 seconds from 150-165° and 12 seconds from 300°.
Most breaks were running waist high with occasional chest high pluses at SE exposed breaks.
Buoys in the outer waters were running 4-5'. Nearshore buoys were about 2'.
Tide levels will swing wider each day this week as we approach a New Moon Saturday the 10th. Today we have a 5' high around 8:00 AM, a 2' low around 1:30 PM, and a 6' high around 7:00 PM. Note that sea levels are running about 1' higher than normal from thermal expansion caused by El Niño and the marine heat wave off SoCal. So 6' high tides are essentially 7' in SoCal right now (see my earlier Kelvin Wave discussion here).
Water temps were running 72-75° around most of SD and OC. LA was running 73-75° in most spots, although the usually-cooler Zuma reported 71° yesterday. In VC, Channel Islands Harbor reported 75° yesterday. In SB, Stearns Wharf reported 72° this morning.
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Surf Forecast:
Today (Tuesday the 6th) Rachel's swell has made an on-time arrival into SoCal, although it won't be felt at many south facing breaks until tomorrow. Swell will be angled better Wednesday the 7th as Rachel has reached into our swell window and with a slightly better course than expected (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):
That slightly better course to the WNW means we'll still see a fair amount of angular decay (page 52), but not as much as models forecast a couple days ago. Today Rachel is almost directly to our south, sending swell from an improved angle compared to what we're seeing today, currently missing many breaks (page 45). But Wednesday the 7th should see the angle improve to 170° with most south facing breaks running chest high, with chest+ sets at SE exposed spots. Some head high pluses will be possible Wednesday the 7th at the better-exposed SE spots. Thursday the 8th should see size more along the lines of chest+ at all south facing breaks with swell angled from 180°. Periods should run 11-13 seconds today through Thursday, however, another swell will start filling in then.
Thursday the 8th (building day) into Friday the 9th (peak) along with swell from Rachel, we should also see SW ground swell from this system that was near New Zealand about a week ago (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):
That should add chest high sets to south facing breaks Friday the 9th, angled from 210° with periods 16 seconds.
Friday the 9th, along with Rachel and the New Zealand swell, we'll also see spotty, intermittent NW ground swell from this system circled in white that recently smashed into the Aleutian Chain (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):
That Aleutian swell wasn't positioned ideally for SoCal swell, but it should result in waist to chest high waves at west facing breaks Friday the 9th, angled from 310° and periods 15 seconds. South facing breaks should do better at chest high (or better) from the southern hemi and Rachel mix.
Saturday the 10th (building day) into Sunday the 11th (peak) should see SW ground swell from this deep low latitude storm that peaked a few days ago (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):
Although housing 40' seas this morning, it moved on a direct easterly course, sending only a fraction of swell to SoCal. Saturday the 10th should run chest high at south facing breaks from the previous swells (waist to chest at west facing spots). But then Sunday the 11th should run chest high with occasional pluses at south facing breaks with swell angled from 200° and periods 17-19 seconds.
Monday the 12th, as that southern hemi continues, we should see intermittent NW ground swell from Typhoon Choi-Wan (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):
Choi-Wan was whipping up 40-50' seas this morning and is getting caught up in the North Pacific Gyre (page 146). This is common with WestPac typhoons, although Choi-Wan's northeasterly course means we'll see a high degree of angular spread decay (page 52). This and its distance of 4,500 nautical miles from SoCal means swell will be highly intermittent with few waves per set and long lulls between sets. As for size and such, west facing breaks are looking at sporadic chest to head high waves from Choi-Wan, angled from 300° and periods 21 seconds. This will make Monday the 12th and Tuesday the 13th tricky days as Choi-Wan should add surprise outsiders, interspersed in the relatively smaller surf at west facing spots. But we may have another problem.
Sunday the 11th into Monday the 12th could see an addition of not only NW wind swell, but rain and winds too from this pattern that's taking shape on the medium range models (model by NOAA MAG):
The red arrow points to a combined low of Rachel's remnants and another cut-off low that'd join forces nearby. The green arrow shows another low diving south toward SoCal. On its own, the northerly low would be dry as it takes an overland course; however, that northerly low, churning counterclockwise, would tap into the moisture from Rachel's remnants, bringing high wind and rain into SoCal. I'll break that down further in the Weather section below. As for swell, this could stir up chest high (or greater) wind swell into west facing breaks, while putting conditions into question. This needs much more monitoring over the next few days.
Tuesday the 13th, wind swell aside, we should see SW ground swell from this storm that traveled north off Antarctica a couple days ago (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):
That should produce chest+ sets at south facing breaks Tuesday the 13th and Wednesday the 14th, and then chest max Thursday the 15th and waist to chest Friday the 16th, diminishing to waist high Saturday the 17th. Swell should be angled from 205° with periods 16 seconds.
Sunday the 18th will likely see SW ground swell from this system on the 3-day models (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):
Models are in agreement on 30' seas, which works out to chest+ sets at south facing breaks Sunday the 18th and Monday the 19th, angled from 200° and periods 16 seconds.
Looking out on the longer range, NOAA will issue their official, monthly El Niño forecast this Thursday. Yet all is on track for a strong El Niño this winter, as we can see on this conservative, "corrected" model (image from NOAA CPC):
To steer clear of headline hype (AKA industrialized fear), I prefer to use these corrected models as they calibrate raw computer model output against historical real-world observations. This removes systematic bias to show a truer range of possibilities. Still, there is a wide spread, which should be published Thursday by NOAA. By comparison, the El Niño of 2015-16 measured 2.6°C, and the 1997-98 Niño was 2.4°C. But anything above 2°C is considered a "very strong" El Niño, so even the corrected model shows we're on track for a potentially active winter of bigger swells and higher rain amounts. However, as you might recall from my recent discussion on the El Niño-related Kelvin Wave affecting SoCal, a higher El Niño signal doesn't always result in a wet winter, or more active swell season.
In any case, there's a lot to monitor in the coming days, weeks and months, and I need your support to continue to do so. Please remember this report is funded by reader donations and your help is vital to keep it alive (see why here).
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Here's a brief look at how the next few days are breaking down so far:
Wednesday the 7th is expected to run chest high at south facing breaks and waist high at west facing spots.
Thursday the 8th is expected to run chest+ at south facing breaks and waist high at west facing spots.
Friday the 9th looks about chest+ at south facing breaks and waist to chest at west facing spots.
Saturday the 10th looks about chest high at south facing spots and waist to chest at west facing spots.
Sunday the 11th, looks about chest high at south facing breaks and waist to chest at west facing spots.
Monday the 12th, so far, looks about chest high at south facing breaks. West facing breaks are looking at sporadic sets running chest to head high. Wind swell is also possible.
Tuesday the 13th, so far, looks about chest+ at south facing breaks and intermittently chest to head high at west facing spots.
Wednesday the 14th, so far, looks about chest+ at south facing breaks and waist to chest high at west facing spots.
Thursday the 15th, so far, looks about chest high at south facing breaks and waist high at west facing spots.
Friday the 16th, so far, looks about waist to chest at south facing breaks, smaller at west facing spots.
Saturday the 17th, so far, looks about waist to chest at south facing breaks, smaller at west facing spots.
Sunday the 18th, so far, looks about chest+ at south facing spots.
Weather Outlook:
Today (Tuesday the 6th) is the last day of the mild Santa Ana as gradients should shift lightly onshore Wednesday the 7th thanks to the recent heat-wave high weakening and moving southeast. A more noticeable onshore flow and its accompanying cool-down should be more noticeable Thursday and Friday as the high weakens further. Marine layer will still have a tough time to become established as the onshore push Thursday and Friday will be weak and the thermal inversion (page 131) is almost neutral near the coast as water temps are in the mid 70s. For the short term, this should result in beach max temps in the low 80s today and Wednesday, cooling to the high 70s or so Thursday, but then much cooler Friday. That's when things get interesting.
This weekend into early next week, our weather should be affected by this pattern mentioned earlier, shown here again to save you from scrolling (model by NOAA MAG):
The red arrow points to a combined low of Rachel's remnants and a cut-off low that'd merge with Rachel. The green arrow shows another low diving south toward SoCal. The northerly low would be dry as it takes an overland course. But as it turns counterclockwise it would tap into Rachel's remnants, bringing high wind and rain into SoCal.
At first, we're looking at a fairly cloudy day Saturday the 10th with the dark blue clouds being thick, stormy-looking skies (model from ECMWF):
Rain could start falling in SoCal Saturday night, but most models put the bulk of the rain into SoCal Sunday the 11th into Monday the 12th, possibly lasting off and on into Tuesday the 13th. Here's the GFS model's take on rain accumulation from this event (model by NOAA MAG):
So according to the GFS this morning, many parts of SoCal could see 2" of rain. Yet the ECMWF shows the bulk of the rain centered over Northern Baja with much lighter amounts in SoCal. This pattern could also kick up strong winds, which I'll account for in the Wind section below.
I'm sure models will align better over the next couple days so I can narrow in on this with more accuracy in my Thursday report.
Taking all of this into account, here's how I'm calling SoCal beach weather for the next few days:
Today (Tuesday the 6th) should see no AM marine layer and max beach temps in the mid 80s.
Wednesday the 7th should see little to no AM marine layer and max beach temps in the upper 70s to low 80s.
Thursday the 8th should see a thin marine layer with burn-off early morning and max beach temps in the upper 70s.
Friday the 9th should see AM marine layer, midmorning burn-off, some tropical clouds and max beach temps in the mid to upper 70s.
Saturday the 10th should be cloudy with max beach temps in the low to mid 70s.
Sunday the 11th could see rain. I'll have more on that in my next report.
Wind Outlook:
Winds
at 7:00 AM were calm most everywhere along the coast. Afternoon onshores should run 8-12 mph.
Wednesday the 7th should see AM light and variables and afternoon onshores to 10 mph.
Thursday the 8th should see AM light and variables and afternoon onshores to 10 mph.
Friday the 9th will likely see AM light and variables with afternoon onshores to 15 mph.
Saturday the 10th, so far, is looking at AM light and variables with an onshore element and afternoon onshores to 15+ mph.
Sunday the 11th, so far, is looking at AM light and variables with an onshore element, picking up throughout the morning and reaching 20 mph in the afternoon.
Until my next report (Thursday), take care, be safe, and smile in the lineup!
