SoCal Forecast
Updated most Sundays, Tuesdays, and Thursdays

Thursday 8/13/26 6:10 AM
By Nathan Cool

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At a glance:
Today (Thursday the 13th) we have mostly moderate southern hemisphere ground swell in SoCal. SW ground swell builds Friday, peaking over the weekend. Minor NW wind swell comes into the mix early next week. Light SW ground swell is due midweek. A better sized southern hemi is due over the weekend of the 22nd-23rd. Tropical swell potential increases shortly after. And there's an official update on El Niño, which was upgraded today. Condition-wise: cool weather slowly shifts in a few days; winds trend onshore, stronger than normal at times; the tide is still swinging wide; and water temps are on the warm side in most spots.

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Current Conditions:
Early this morning, periods were primarily running 12-15 seconds from 180-200° and 17 seconds from 205°. NW was minor in the background at 9 seconds from 320°.

Most south facing breaks were running waist to chest high. Direct west facing breaks were mostly waist high.

Buoys in the outer waters were running 4-5'. Nearshore buoys were running 1.8-2.4'.

Tide levels are still swinging wide from Wednesday's New Moon. Today we have a -1' low around 5:00 AM, a near 5' high around 11:00 AM, a 1.2' low around 4:30 PM, and a 6.5' high around 10:30 PM.

Water temps were running 71-75° around most of SD. OC was mostly 70-72°. LA was running 72-74°. In VC, Channel Islands Harbor reported 73° last night. SB Harbor reported 69° this morning.

Surf Forecast:
Today (Thursday the 13th) is an in-between day as we're on the backside of the swell that peaked in SoCal yesterday from this storm that reached its peak ten days ago in the southern hemisphere (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):

That swell is on the way out today but still producing sporadic sets upwards of chest high at south facing breaks. A more consistent, and better sized swell fills in tomorrow.

Friday the 14th (building day) into Saturday the 15th (peak) should see decent sized SW ground swell from this system that peaked near New Zealand about a week ago (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):

With seas measuring 30-35' on an ideal course for SoCal surf, there'll be very little loss from angular decay (page 52), only distance decay (page 41). This should produce chest+ sets at most south facing breaks by Saturday the 15th (building Friday the 14th) with standouts seeing pluses in the head high range. Swell should be angled from 210° and periods 17 seconds. This swell should continue Sunday the 16th with similar size, and then back down to chest high Monday the 17th, and waist to chest Tuesday the 18th.

Monday the 17th (building day) into Tuesday the 18th (peak) should also see minor NW wind swell in the mix. We'll be under the influence of a trough of low pressure that will pass through the PNW early next week, kicking up winds along the west coast. For SoCal, the wind swell looks minor with waist to chest high wind swell waves at west facing breaks by Tuesday the 18th. This pattern will also make for stronger than normal afternoon onshore winds as well (more on that in the Weather and Wind sections below) .

Wednesday the 19th should see light to moderate SW ground swell from this system near New Zealand (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):

With just 25' seas, most south facing breaks are looking at waist high sets with occasional chest high pluses at standouts. Swell should be angled from 205° and periods 15 seconds. This swell should continue with similar size Thursday the 20th and dip Friday the 21st to waist max.

Saturday the 22nd (building day) into Sunday the 23rd (peak) should see SW ground swell from this system taking a favorable northward course off Antarctica, which is coming to its "initial" peak this morning (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):

That's a great course for SoCal swell. But with seas only 25', most south facing breaks are looking at waist to chest high sets, angled from 195° and periods 15 seconds. Another fetch running behind that system should keep waist to chest high waves going Monday the 24th and Tuesday the 25th.

A couple southern hemi swells are showing up on the 4- to 7-day outlooks for the 28th-30th, but both equate to waist high waves at south facing breaks — a downgrade from models earlier this week. Those are hardly worth a graphic since there are more salient features to talk about that'll affect our surf in the coming weeks and months.

Tuesday the 25th is when the next window of opportunity opens for tropical swell potential in SoCal. It's something that's not only popping up on the models, but also coupled to cycle shifts that are now underway, including El Niño (more on that in a sec). Looking at where things are today, it's temporarily lackluster in our tropical swell window as high pressure (blue circle) — that would guide tropical storms into our swell window — is positioned very far to our east (model by NOAA MAG):

A trough of low pressure (red arrow) is also pushing south toward SoCal, which is increasing the onshore flow. For tropical storms, this doesn't provide the guidance we often get from clockwise swirling highs normally positioned farther west (with no low pressure troughing). But all of this should change by day ten as high pressure makes a comeback to the American West, gaining strength, potentially guiding a tropical storm (red arrow) well into the SoCal swell window (model by NOAA MAG):

While tropical storm guidance would be much improved, this is also when the cycle for increased tropical activity should return to the Eastern Pacific. As you might recall from earlier reports, this 30- to 60-day tropical cycle, known as the MJO, temporarily left our region as it continued its course around the globe; hence, the recent absence of hurricane swells. But the MJO has already returned to the Western Pacific and is making its way east. Most models favor the MJO reaching the Eastern Pacific around 8/21, which jives with the potential tropical swell reaching SoCal around the 25th. On top of all this, there may be an accelerant to the MJO as it often gets constructive interference (a coupling, of sorts) with El Niño, which is now reaching concerning strength.

This morning, NOAA issued their latest official El Niño report, which now calls for a high chance for a "...historic event that would exceed the strength of previous El Niño events..." (their words, not mine). This, as the forecast shows potential for El Niño breaking records (model from NOAA CPC)

That corrected model (a kind of average) shows this year's El Niño now reaching at least 2.5°C anomalous by the winter, running about 1.8°C now (red arrow). While that's a corrected model, NOAA's official stance is slightly more intense showing mean strength (red arrow, black line) reaching about 2.6°C, with a chance upwards of 75% to exceed that (model from NOAA CPC)

By comparison, the El Niño of 2015-16 measured 2.6°C, and the 1997-98 Niño was 2.4°C. So this year's El Niño might actually exceed those memorable events (something I talk about in Surf, Flood, Fire & Mud). But that's not all.

This year, a marine heat wave (MHW) has been persistent off Mexico, Baja, and SoCal. And now, it's merging with the warming water of El Niño (model from NOAA Coral Reef Watch):

This is, quite literally, uncharted territory as not only do we have a historic El Niño underway, but a broader area of warmer waters in the Eastern Pacific. This adds up to three main things to watch for over the coming weeks and months.

First up is the high likelihood for increased tropical storm/hurricane activity starting later this month, lasting well through September (likely into October too) as the MJO couples with the strengthening El Niño. Tropical activity could start up again as early as 8/21, but it's more likely to get underway in earnest by the beginning of September.

Second, we could then see a suppressed Santa Ana season from October through December. Oftentimes El Niños don't just place low pressure in the Gulf of Alaska (page 92), they can also put lower pressure in the Great Basin, which serves as the origin for most SoCal Santa Anas (page 116).

Third, and of high importance, is the high likelihood this winter of increased storm activity in the North Pacific that would be directly guided to SoCal. This could create epicly sized NW swells this winter, along with potential for record-breaking rain.

All of this needs a lot more monitoring. But as long as I have your support then I can continue to keep an eye on the Pacific to keep you posted. Please remember this report is funded by reader donations and your help is crucial to keep it alive (see why here).

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Here's a brief look at how the next few days are breaking down so far:

Friday the 14th should see SW swell fill in to south facing spots, starting at waist high for dawn patrols, chest high later in the day.

Saturday the 15th is expected to run chest+ at south facing spots with pluses to head high at standouts.

Sunday the 16th is expected to run chest+ at south facing spots with pluses to head high at standouts.

Monday the 17th looks about chest high at south facing breaks with rarer pluses. West facing spots should run at least waist high as wind swell builds.

Tuesday the 18th looks about waist to chest at south facing spots. West facing spots will likely run waist to chest from wind swell.

Wednesday the 19th looks about waist to at times chest high at south facing breaks and waist+ at west facing spots.

Thursday the 20th looks about waist to at times chest high at south facing breaks.

Friday the 21st, so far, looks about waist high at south facing spots

Saturday the 22nd, so far, is expected to see southern hemi swell fill in, starting out at waist high early at south facing breaks, building later in the day.

Sunday the 23rd, so far, looks about chest high at south facing spots.

Monday the 24th, so far, looks about chest high at south facing spots.

Tuesday the 25th looks similar so far, although this is the next potential window for tropical swell in SoCal...more on that in my upcoming report.

 

Weather Outlook:
Today (Thursday the 13th) we're seeing a fair amount of high clouds stream into SoCal (yellow circle), which spun off weak tropical activity (red arrows) near Hawaii (model from ECMWF):

One of those storms became strong enough to be named Hernan, but it's weak and fizzling. Still, cloud cover is rather thick leading off that storm activity. Coupled with that, a hefty onshore push is underway as high pressure has moved to the east and low pressure troughing is pushing south toward SoCal, shown here again to save you from scrolling (model by NOAA MAG):

While the trough (red arrow) sticks around for a few days, each day over the next ten should see high pressure slowly move back to the American West, reaching its peak near SoCal by 8/24 (model by NOAA MAG):

For the short term, we'll see a fairly robust onshore flow along with stronger than normal afternoon onshore winds. Some models keep the winds going well into the second half of next week, but we should see less onshore flow for earlier clearing and less tropical cloud cover in SoCal then. By Monday the 24th, the dog-days should return.

Taking all of this into account, here's how I'm calling SoCal beach weather for the next few days:

Today (Thursday the 13th) should see a fair amount of cloud cover most of the day, clearing north of LA this afternoon. Max beach temps should reach the low 70s.

Friday the 14th should see AM marine layer with a burn-off by early afternoon. Max beach temps should reach the low to mid 70s.

Saturday the 15th should see AM marine layer with a burn-off by noon. Max beach temps should reach the low to mid 70s.

Sunday the 16th could see AM marine layer, burn-off midmorning, some high clouds at times, and beach max temps in the low to mid 70s.

Monday the 17th should see AM marine layer, burn-off by late morning, some high clouds at times, and beach max temps in the low to mid 70s.

Tuesday the 18th should see AM marine layer, burn-off by late morning, some high clouds at times, and beach max temps in the low to mid 70s.

 

Wind Outlook:
Winds at 6:00 AM were light and variable most everywhere with a slight southerly element. Afternoon onshores should reach 10-15 mph.

Friday the 14th should see AM light and variables and afternoon onshores 14-18 mph.

Saturday the 15th is expected to see AM light and variables and afternoon onshores 15-20 mph.

Sunday the 16th should see AM light and variables with a slight onshore element, onshores by noon to 10 mph, and then upwards of 20 mph by early to mid afternoon.

Monday the 17th should see AM light and variables with a slight onshore element, onshores by noon to 10 mph, and then upwards of 20 mph by early to mid afternoon.

Tuesday the 18th should see AM light and variables with a slight onshore element, onshores by noon to 10 mph, and then upwards of 20 mph by early to mid afternoon.

 

Until my next report (Sunday), take care, be safe, and smile in the lineup!

—Nathan

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