SoCal Forecast
Updated most Sundays, Tuesdays, and Thursdays
Tuesday 8/11/26 6:10 AM
By Nathan Cool
Surf Charts for SoCal
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At a glance:
Today (Tuesday the 11th) we have light to moderate SW ground swell in SoCal with minor, background NW wind swell. A decent sized southern hemisphere swell is due by the weekend. Light southern hemis are due during the second half of next week. Better sized SW ground swell is being watched for the end of the month. Tropical swell potential is being watched shortly after. Condition-wise: cooler weather ahead with cloud cover dominant at times; winds pick up in a few days; a tidal swing is underway; and water temps are fair.
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Current Conditions:
Early this morning, periods were primarily running 14 seconds from 195° and 9 seconds from 320°, although 20-second forerunners were pinging some buoys as the next southern hemi fills in (page 43).
Most south facing breaks were running waist to chest high. Direct west facing breaks were mostly waist high.
Buoys in the outer waters were running 4-5'. Nearshore buoys were running 1.6-2.1'.
Tide levels are swinging wide as we approach a New Moon Wednesday the 12th. Today we have a -1.5' low around 3:30 AM, a 4.5' high around 10:00 AM, a 1.5' low around 3:00 PM, and a 7' high around 9:00 PM. That extreme high can cause coastal flooding and the NWS was issued advisories for SB, VC, and LA here and OC and SD here.
Water temps were running 71-74° around most of SD, OC, and LA. In VC, Channel Islands Harbor has been running 69-74° over the past 24 hours. In SB, Stearns Wharf reported 67° this morning.
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Surf Forecast:
Today (Tuesday the 11th) as southern hemi ground swell fades from the Antarctic swell that peaked in SoCal Sunday, lesser southern hemi is filling in from this system you might recall from earlier reports that had decently sized seas but a less than ideal course for SoCal surf (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):
Even though that storm pumped up impressive, 35-40' seas, its trajectory resulted in a high degree of angular decay (page 52). So although periods should run 18 seconds Wednesday the 12th when this system peaks in SoCal, size should run waist to chest high at south facing breaks, angled from 205°. Also, sets look inconsistent with few waves per set and long lulls between sets. This swell should continue Thursday the 13th.
Friday the 14th (building day) into Saturday the 15th (peak) should see decent sized SW ground swell from this system that peaked near New Zealand last week (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):
With seas measuring 30-35' on an ideal course for SoCal surf, there'll be very little loss from angular decay (only distance decay). This works out to chest+ sets at most south facing breaks by Saturday the 15th (building Friday the 14th) with standouts seeing pluses in the head high range. Swell should be angled from 210° and periods 17 seconds. This swell should continue Sunday the 16th with similar size, and then back down to chest high Monday the 17th, and waist to chest Tuesday the 18th.
Wednesday the 19th should see light to moderate SW ground swell from this system near New Zealand (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):
With just 25', most south facing breaks are looking at waist high sets with occasional chest high pluses at standouts. Swell should be angled from 205° and periods 15 seconds. This swell should continue with similar size Thursday the 20th and dip Friday the 21st to waist max.
Saturday the 22nd (building day) into Sunday the 23rd (peak) will likely see SW ground swell from this system taking a favorable northward course off Antarctica (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):
That's a great course for SoCal swell, but with seas only 25', most south facing breaks are looking at waist to chest high sets, angled from 195° and periods 15 seconds. Similar activity behind it would likely keep at least waist high waves going Monday the 24th and Tuesday the 25th. This is on the 2-day models, but models have been fairly consistent and aligned. I'll confirm it in my next report.
Thursday the 27th (building day?) into Friday the 28th (peak?) has potential to see a better sized SW ground swell from this more robust storm near New Zealand on the 6-day models (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):
So far, that looks like a chest+ swell for south facing breaks, angled from 210° with periods 17 seconds. Longer range models show a repeat performance a couple days later; however, the ECMWF model shows impressive seas nearing 40' for bigger surf in SoCal. The ensemble mean keeps it more along the lines of 30', which is the chest+ forecast I'd favor today.
Peering out on the longer range horizon for SoCal surf, potential for hurricane swells starts to increase about four weeks from now. The major player is the the MJO — a 30-60 day cycle that travels around the globe, influencing storm activity in the tropics. That MJO recently traveled east, exiting the Eastern Pacific; hence, the recent absence of tropical storms in the SoCal swell window. Right now, the MJO is making its way into the Western Pacific and will slowly move eastward into the Central Pacific in a couple weeks. It should then move into the Eastern Pacific a couple weeks after that. This would mean increased potential for tropical storm activity starting September 1st. Before then, some models like the idea of the MJO having a kind of coupling effect with El Niño (commonly called "constructive interference"). But for now, even though water temps are prime for hurricane formation and guidance in the Eastern Pacific, it's a waiting game for convection to start back up again, which relies heavily on the MJO.
Looking out even further, El Niño is alive and well, staying the course for notable strength this winter (model from NOAA CPC)
This corrected model (an average, of sorts) shows this year's El Niño topping out around 2.5°C anomalous by the winter. We're already about 1.5°C, so we're well on our way. By comparison, the El Niño of 2015-16 measured 2.6°C, and the 1997-98 Niño was 2.4°C. So this year's 2.5°C El Niño should be right up there with those exceptionally active events (something I talk about in Surf, Flood, Fire & Mud). El Niño should keep tropical waters rather warm well into October, so there remains a high likelihood for hurricane swells not just starting in September, but since the MJO sticks around for 30-60 days as El Niño strengthens, tropical swell potential continues to climb. After that, when winter comes, we're looking at high potential for very sizable NW swells and heavy rains as well.
All of this needs a lot more monitoring. But as long as I have your support then I can continue to keep an eye on the Pacific to keep you posted. Please remember this report is funded by reader donations and your help is vital to keep it alive (see why here).
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Here's a brief look at how the next few days are breaking down so far:
Wednesday the 12th is expected to run waist to chest high at south facing spots but with inconsistent sets. West facing breaks should run knee to waist.
Thursday the 13th looks about waist max everywhere.
Friday the 14th should see SW swell fill in to south facing spots, starting at waist high for dawn patrols, chest high later in the day.
Saturday the 15th is expected to run chest+ at south facing spots with pluses to head high at standouts.
Sunday the 16th is expected to run chest+ at south facing spots with pluses to head high at standouts.
Monday the 17th looks about chest high at south facing breaks with rarer pluses.
Tuesday the 18th looks about waist to chest at south facing spots.
Wednesday the 19th, so far, looks about waist to at times chest high at south facing breaks.
Thursday the 20th, so far, looks about waist to at times chest high at south facing breaks.
Friday the 21st, so far, looks about waist high at south facing spots.
Weather Outlook:
Today (Tuesday the 11th) high pressure is starting to weaken and slowly moving east, which will increase the onshore flow into SoCal over the next few days. Also, there are two notable developments worth noting.
The first is an increase in cloud cover into SoCal (yellow circle) breaking off weak tropical activity (red arrows) near Hawaii (model from ECMWF):
The brown areas are low-level clouds (marine layer) and the dark blue and magenta areas are storm clouds. The green swath running into SoCal is mid to high level cloud cover. It's nothing severe, but these clouds can disrupt marine layer development, which is kind of a zero-sum game for sky cover with either marine layer or high clouds, or both. This pattern will start up in a couple days and last for a few days after, which I'll take into account in the day-to-day here in a sec.
The second thing worth mentioning is low pressure troughing near the SoCal coast. Right now, a trough is making its way south as high pressure moves east, increasing the onshore flow over the next couple days, strongest Thursday the 13th with an impressive 5mb onshore gradient (page 127). But early next week, another trough with a hefty low (red arrow) will battle for influence in SoCal as high pressure (blue arrow) will start to move back to the west and gain strength (model by NOAA MAG):
The gradient between the two (page 15) could gin-up wind swell along the coast. Winds could persist long enough to induce upwelling (page 148), which in turn could affect the inversion (page 131). I've taken this into account for the Wind section below. But the longer range weather is a trickier call.
One last thing to mention before breaking down the day-to-day is a small chance of precip in south county SD from tropical activity today. It wouldn't be much, but worth mentioning.
Taking all of this into account, here's how I'm calling SoCal beach weather for the next few days:
Today (Tuesday the 11th) should see burn-off late morning, tropical clouds at times, and max beach temps in the mid 70s.
Wednesday the 12th should see AM marine layer with a good amount of tropical cloud cover. Skies should clear up in the afternoon. Max beach temps should reach the low to mid 70s.
Thursday the 13th should see AM marine layer and a heavy deck of tropical cloud cover. Clearing of the tropical clouds will be tough and may not occur until later in the day. Max beach temps should reach the low to mid 70s.
Friday the 14th should see AM marine layer with a burn-off by noon or early afternoon. Max beach temps should reach the low to mid 70s.
Saturday the 15th should see AM marine layer with a burn-off late morning. Max beach temps should reach the low to mid 70s.
Sunday the 16th could see more tropical clouds stream into SoCal...more on that in my next report.
Wind Outlook:
Winds
at 6:00 AM were light and variable most everywhere. Afternoon onshores should reach 8-12 mph.
Wednesday the 12th should see very light winds in the morning and afternoon onshores 10-15 mph.
Thursday the 13th should see AM light and variables and afternoon onshores to 15 mph.
Friday the 14th should see AM light and variables and afternoon onshores 15-20 mph.
Saturday the 15th, so far, is expected to see AM light and variables and afternoon onshores 15-20 mph.
Sunday the 16th looks similar so far.
Monday the 17th through Wednesday the 19th may be windier. I'll have more on that in my next report.
Until my next report (Thursday), take care, be safe, and smile in the lineup!
