SoCal Forecast
Updated most Sundays, Tuesdays, and Thursdays
Tuesday 7/21/26 7:25 AM
By Nathan Cool
Surf Charts for SoCal
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At a glance:
Today (Tuesday the 21st) we still have a fair amount of swell from Elida in SoCal as southern hemisphere ground swell fills in. Southern hemi should peak Wednesday the 22nd, which is when swell from Hurricane Fausto should begin to reach the shores of SoCal, peaking Thursday the 23rd and linger for a couple days. Moderate southern hemisphere ground swell is due Sunday the 26th. Southern hemi should increase Tuesday the 28th. Potentially strong hurricane swell is being watched for the 30th-31st. And another hefty hurricane swell could hit SoCal around Monday the 3rd. Condition-wise: heatwaves through the forecast; winds stronger than normal at times for the short term; tide levels are entering a wider swing; and water temps continue to rise in many spots.
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Current Conditions:
This afternoon, periods were primarily running 10 seconds from 190° and 17 seconds from 195°.
Most south facing breaks were running chest to head high with overhead pluses at times at standouts. Direct west facing breaks were mostly waist to chest, bigger at SW exposed spots.
Buoys in the outer waters were running 6'. Nearshore buoys were running 3-4' with most of that being 10-second periods from Elida. So even though nearshore seas are impressive, the short periods will shoal at only slightly higher (page 67).
Tide levels have relaxed from the recent swing but a new tidal swing is slowly getting underway as we approach a Full Moon Wednesday the 29th. Today we have a 2' low around 9:00 AM, a 5' high around 4:00 PM, and a 1.5' low around midnight.
Water temps were running 70-74° around most of SD and OC. LA was mostly 70-72°. In VC, Channel Islands Harbor has been running 68-70°. In SB, Stearns Wharf reported 69° this morning.
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Surf Forecast:
Today (Tuesday the 21st) we still have a good deal of swell from Elida in SoCal but the trailing periods — arriving later (page 41) — are quite short. In the mix we have increasing southern hemi ground swell, which should build throughout the day today, peaking Wednesday the 22nd from this system that formed near French Polynesia about eight days ago (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
Elida's swell is the dominant energy in SoCal today so the FPoly's chest high waves are less noticeable, angled from 200° and periods 16-17 seconds. On Wednesday the 22nd, Elida's size should drop to chest max, leaving ground swell dominant at chest high. HOWEVER, during the day Wednesday the 22nd, especially by late afternoon, we should see swell from Hurricane Fausto fill in, shown here early this morning (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
For a brief time Fausto has been moving northwest but is soon to turn more to the west. The initially north-favored track is what should send the most energy to SoCal, which works out to 1-2' overhead at south facing breaks by early morning Thursday the 23rd, building though Wednesday the 22nd. Fausto's swell should be angled initially from 170-175° and then improve to 180° Wednesday the 23rd with periods 15-17 seconds. As Fausto moves west and pumps up impressive, 35'+ seas, we should get a glancing blow of energy from its angular spread (page 52), which calculates right now to chest to head high waves at south facing breaks Friday the 24th and Saturday the 25th, angled from 200-210° and periods upwards of 17 seconds. Other, shorter periods will be in the mix as well.
TL-DR: Wednesday the 22nd should see Fausto's swell build during the day, reaching overhead sometime in the afternoon (or late afternoon); 1-2' overhead Thursday the 23rd; chest to head high Friday the 24th and Saturday the 25th but with less consistency then.
During this time, starting Thursday the 23rd, we should see a slight increase in NW wind swell as Elida, being so close to SoCal right now, will create a pressure gradient along the coast (model by UQAM):
I popped a red box over SoCal; the red arrow is Elida; and the blue arrows show high pressure that will interact with Elida to create the wind-producing pressure gradient along the coast. This will also increase winds over the next couple days (see Weather and Wind sections below), initially from Elida today, but then from a trough of low pressure that will subsume Elida shortly (model by NOAA MAG):
The trough subsuming Elida is circled in red; high pressure is circled in blue. This though is more a point of fascination than forecast as the wind swell will be minimal (waist high-ish), but the winds will be noticeable over the next couple days.
Sunday the 26th, as Fausto's swell wanes, we should also see moderate SW ground swell from this system that was hugging the low latitudes last week (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
That works out to chest high sets for south facing breaks but inconsistent with few waves per set and long lulls between sets. Swell should be angled from 210° and periods 19 seconds. This swell should continue Monday the 27th with similar size, and we may see a smidge more NW wind swell in the mix from a low passing through the PNW. Southern hemi swell should be dominant.
Tuesday the 28th should see a slight increase in southern hemisphere ground swell from this system that peaked near New Zealand, travelling on a more wave-worthy course than its predecessor (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
That should produce sets running chest to upwards of head high at south facing breaks Tuesday the 28th, angled from 210° and periods 18 seconds. This system is reforming near French Polynesia today, which would help keep chest to head high waves going at south facing breaks Wednesday the 29th. This swell should even continue Thursday the 30th; however, that's when the next hurricane swell could come ashore.
Thursday the 30th (building day?) into Friday the 31st (peak?) could see hurricane swell from a potential storm that would be named Genevieve, shown here on the 9-day (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
The early estimates put seas at 35-40' when approaching the Cabo latitude, which at the top-end peak in SoCal would equate to DOH sets at south facing breaks; if, that is, one can trust the long range projections. As it stands right now, swell would initially run 1-3' overhead Thursday the 30th from 165° with periods 16 seconds, and then DOH Friday the 31st angled from 170° and periods 16-18 seconds. A variety of shorter periods would be in the mix as well. Although we're still early in the game, models have been fairly consistent with this storm since late last week, and as mentioned in earlier reports everything is working in favor for additional hurricane swells like this as waters remain well above normal from not just El Niño but the persistent Marine Heat Wave (MHV) off Mexico, Baja, and SoCal (model from NOAA Coral Reef Watch):
There's essentially nothing stopping tropical cyclones from traveling up to our neck of the woods, especially since high pressure centered over the U.S. — spinning clockwise — is guiding tropical activity northward. With warm water in their paths, they have high potential to become swell-makers for SoCal and more hurricanes are showing up on the longer range.
Monday the 3rd and/or Tuesday the 4th continues to show promise for another hurricane swell as the 10-day models show this strong low that could take the same path as Elida and soon-to-be Genevieve, making it Hernan (model by NOAA MAG):
High pressure will continue to dominate much of the west, like the 598dm high over SoCal in that model above. This dominant high pressure, which is in place now and will contract and expand over the next couple weeks, will continue to provide northward guidance for hurricanes along the high's outer periphery and clockwise spin.
So the stage is set for hurricane swells with no let-up on the long range. This all needs more monitoring, but as long as I have your support then I can continue to keep an eye on the Pacific to keep you posted. Please remember this report is funded by reader donations and your help is crucial to keep it alive (see why here).
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Here's a brief look at how the next few days are breaking down so far:
Wednesday the 22nd looks about chest high at south facing breaks but with hurricane swell building later in the day.
Thursday the 23rd is expected to run 1-2' overhead at south facing breaks.
Friday the 24th should run chest to head high at south facing breaks with some pluses at standouts in the early morning.
Saturday the 25th, so far, looks about chest to head high at south facing breaks.
Sunday the 26th looks about chest high at south facing breaks.
Monday the 27th looks about chest high at south facing breaks.
Tuesday the 28th looks about chest to head high at south facing spots.
Wednesday the 29th, so far, looks about chest to head high at south facing spots.
Thursday the 30th, so far, is expected to run 1-3' overhead at south facing breaks from hurricane swell.
Friday the 31st, so far, looks about DOH at south facing breaks; however, this would be from hurricane swell that is on the extended long range today. I'll have more on this in my next report.
Weather Outlook:
Today (Tuesday the 21st) for at least the next couple weeks, SoCal weather will be dominated by strong high pressure either centered over the U.S. or 4-Corners region. Either way, fairly strong high pressure will extend into SoCal, swirling in tropical moisture. Early this morning, Elida's remnants were sitting off the coast, shown here again to save you from scrolling (model by UQAM):
This will create stronger than normal winds this afternoon as Elida's remnant low interacts with nearby high pressure, creating a robust onshore gradient. That onshore gradient will be short-lived, and isn't enough to gin-up marine layer today as tropical moisture has inhibited that, and the thermal inversion is weak right now (page 131).
The inversion should gain ground Wednesday the 22nd and Thursday the 23rd as inland areas enter another heatwave. This should cause more marine layer to form from a stronger inversion. Otherwise, with water and beach surface temps on the warm side, the inversion will remain weak with no major marine layer in the forecast. No rain is in the forecast despite so much tropical activity. The only notable weather feature on the models today is a stronger heatwave starting Thursday the 30th when high pressure could run 600dm over a good portion of the American West, stretching into SoCal. At 600dm, we're talking about an extreme heat event that could cook the region, while at the same time strengthening the inversion over the coast.
Taking all of this into account, here's how I'm calling SoCal beach weather for the next few days:
Today (Tuesday the 21st) should see little to no AM marine layer, with early burn-offs where marine layer does form. Tropical clouds are expected at times, but skies should remain mostly sunny. Beach max temps should reach the low to mid 70s.
Wednesday the 22nd should see AM marine layer with a burn-off mid morning. Beach max temps should reach the mid 70s.
Thursday the 23rd should see AM marine layer with a burn-off mid morning. Beach max temps should reach the mid 70s.
Friday the 24th should see AM marine layer with a burn-off mid morning. Beach max temps should reach the mid 70s.
Saturday the 25th should see AM marine layer with a burn-off mid morning. Beach max temps should reach the mid 70s.
Wind Outlook:
Winds
at 8:00 AM were southerly in the 4-9 mph range at many spots. Onshores should pick up from the west by noon to 10 mph and run 15-20 mph by mid afternoon.
Wednesday the 22nd should see WSW winds 3-7 mph in the morning, reaching 10 mph by noon. Winds should increase from the WSW to 20 mph by mid afternoon.
Thursday the 23rd should see WSW winds 2-6 mph in the morning, 10 mph by noon, and 15 mph by mid afternoon.
Friday the 24th should see AM light and variables with afternoon onshores 7-11 mph.
Until my next report (Thursday), take care, be safe, and smile in the lineup!
