SoCal Forecast
Updated most Sundays, Tuesdays, and Thursdays
Sunday 5/24/26 6:10 AM
By Nathan Cool
Surf Charts for SoCal
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At a glance:
Today (Sunday the 24th) we have mostly light, long-period SW ground swell in SoCal with background NW wind swell. Southern hemi swell picks up Monday the 25th along with spotty NW ground swell. NW wind swell is due Wednesday the 27th. Moderate NW ground swell is due at the end of the week. A good sized southern hemi ground swell fills into SoCal by Monday the 1st. Moderate SW ground swell is likely Thursday the 4th. And a decent sized SW ground swell is being watched for the weekend of the 6th-7th. Condition-wise: heavy May Gray with AM drizzle for the short term shifts by the end of the week; winds trend onshore; tide levels are moderate; and water temps are fair.
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Current Conditions:
Early this morning, periods were primarily running 17 seconds from 210° and 9 seconds from 320°.
Most south facing spots were running waist high with occasional chest high pluses at standouts. Direct west facing breaks were mostly knee to waist high.
Buoys in the outer waters were running 4'. Nearshore buoys were averaging 1.7'.
Tide levels are moderate. Today we have a 4' high around 5:00 AM, a 0.5' low around 11:30 AM, a 4.8' high around 6:00 PM, and a 1.5' low after midnight.
Water temps were running 65-68° in most of SD. OC was mostly 62-64° but the usually-warmer San Clemente Pier reported 67° yesterday. LA was mostly 63-65°. In VC, Channel Islands Harbor reported 63° last night. SB Harbor reported 61° last night.
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Surf Forecast:
Today (Sunday the 24th) we're seeing the first of two southern hemisphere ground swells from storms guided north about nine days ago near New Zealand by this trough of low pressure you might recall from earlier reports (model by NOAA MAG):
Today we're seeing the initial warm-up round with mostly waist high waves at south facing breaks. Monday the 25th should see an increase to chest high from a better-sized storm that peaked about a week ago. This and other swells in that trough should keep chest high waves at south facing breaks Tuesday the 26th and Wednesday the 27th. Swell should remain angled from around 200-210°.
Monday the 25th, along with southern hemisphere ground swell, we should also see NW ground swell from this high latitude system that was hugging the Aleutian Chain late last week (model from NOAA OPC):
Although not an ideal course with unfavorable angular spread (page 52), it did peak with seas near 30', which works out to chest max sets at west facing breaks Monday the 25th. However, sets look inconsistent with few waves per set and long lulls between sets. Swell should be angled from a steep 310° and periods 15-16 seconds. So all told, Monday the 25th should run consistently chest high at south facing breaks while west facing breaks run inconsistently chest max. Same goes for Tuesday the 26th.
Wednesday the 27th, as the southern hemi lingers on its last leg, we should also see NW wind swell as this low dives south toward SoCal over the next few days (model by NOAA MAG):
That model shows the point right before the low becomes fully cut-off from the jetstream, losing its predictable guidance. This will affect weather over the next few days, which I'll talk about in the Weather section below. As for wind swell, this will likely kick up at least chest high wind swell at west facing breaks Wednesday the 27th. Models have been fairly well aligned on this over the past few days so I'd put it in the likely category. As for how long the wind swell lingers is a different issue since this low could wobble around SoCal for a couple days. So far, it looks like wind swell would hover around the chest high range Thursday the 28th when southern hemi backs off. Wind swell will likely decline Friday the 29th; however, long range models hint at another round of wind swell Sunday the 31st from a different low. I'll know more on that over the next couple days. Before then...
Friday the 29th should see NW ground swell from this system that's traveling from the Western Pacific up toward the Aleutian Chain (model from NOAA OPC):
That's just 24 hours away from peaking with what models expect will be 35' seas. That should produce chest+ sets at west facing breaks Friday the 29th, but with inconsistent swell having few waves per set and long lulls between sets. In and between the infrequent sets could be chest high-ish wind swell, depending on how the cut-off low behaves.
Sunday the 31st (building by late afternoon with earlier forerunners) into Monday the 1st (peak) should see good sized southern hemisphere ground swell from this system that peaked near New Zealand yesterday (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
Models estimate seas reached 38', which is slightly less than 45' forecast last week. This works out to head high sets at south facing breaks Monday the 1st, angled from 210° and periods 19 seconds. On the low end models, calculations show chest to head high sets, but head high is the most likely size for many sets at south facing breaks. This swell should continue Tuesday the 2nd with similar size, and then dip to chest+ Wednesday the 3rd.
Thursday the 4th will likely see moderate SW ground swell from this smaller system forming in the same region (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
Based on the 2-day models, that works out to chest high sets at south facing breaks, angled from 215° and periods 17 seconds.
Saturday the 6th could see a better sized SW ground swell from yet another system in that region (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
That's out on the 4-day models, but models have been consistent since last week, showing this one housing 35'+ seas. That would work out to chest to head high sets at south facing breaks, angled from 215° and periods 18 seconds. This swell could continue Sunday the 7th before backing off Monday the 8th. This needs more monitoring, but as long as I have your support then I can continue to keep an eye on the Pacific to keep you posted. Please remember this report is funded by reader donations and your help is vital to keep it alive.
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Here's a brief look at how the next few days are breaking down so far:
Monday the 25th looks about chest high at south facing breaks as southern hemi swell fills in. West facing breaks should run waist high.
Tuesday the 26th looks about chest high at south facing spots and waist high at west facing breaks.
Wednesday the 27th looks about chest max at south facing spots. West facing breaks look about chest high from wind swell.
Thursday the 28th looks about waist to at times chest high at south facing spots. West facing breaks should run waist to chest high.
Friday the 29th is expected to run chest+ at west facing breaks from ground swell, but with inconsistent sets with fewer than normal waves per set and long lulls between sets. South facing breaks look about waist high.
Saturday the 30th looks about chest max at west facing breaks and waist high at south facing spots.
Sunday the 31st is expected to see southern hemisphere ground swell fill in at some point in the afternoon. Forerunners are likely at any time during the day. Overall, most breaks look about waist to chest on the average sets, but with pluses at south facing spots at times from the forerunners, especially by mid afternoon.
Monday the 1st, so far, is expected to run head high at south facing spots.
Tuesday the 2nd, so far, is expected to run head high at south facing spots.
Wednesday the 3rd, so far, is expected to run chest+ at south facing spots.
Thursday the 4th, so far, is expected to run chest high at south facing spots.
Friday the 5th, so far, looks about chest high at south facing spots.
Saturday the 6th, so far, is expected to run chest to head high at south facing spots.
Sunday the 7th, so far, is expected to run chest to head high at south facing spots.
Monday the 8th, so far, is expected to run chest high at south facing spots.
Weather Outlook:
Today (Sunday the 24th) very weak high pressure over the American West is allowing an onshore flow through SoCal. We also have a rather robust thermal inversion over SoCal, measuring Δ10°F (page 131). This, along with a minor coastal eddy last night, is thickening up the marine layer right now. And then, starting Monday the 25th, May Gray should kick into high gear as this low travels south to SoCal, linked to the wind swell a couple days later, shown here again to save you from scrolling (model by NOAA MAG):
The onshore flow is expected to increase big time, with models showing the LAX-DAG gradient measuring an impressive 10mb (page 127) by mid afternoon Monday the 27th. This will make burn-offs difficult Tuesday the 26th through Thursday the 28th, with drizzle highly likely at the coast those days.
Meanwhile, while that low travels south and becomes cut-off from the jetstream, it should drag cold air into the atmosphere above SoCal, putting the kibosh on the thermal inversion Wednesday the 27th. At first, it'd be a zero-sum game for May Gray — although the inversion wouldn't aid in marine layer development, the heavy onshore push from the low will. But then once the low moves east Friday the 29th, enough cold air should remain in the atmosphere to keep the inversion null or weak for a day, while the onshore push diminishes. This should make for a clear day Friday the 29th.
Looking ahead to the weekend, the inversion should slowly reestablish while weak high pressure builds over SoCal. Some low pressure troughing is possible Sunday the 31st, but no major onshore push is expected (so far). Models then like the idea of high pressure building over the American West starting 6/1. But at its peak, centered over the 4-Corners region, the high's 592mb is nowhere near the heatwave mark, which tends to tease or exceed 600mb. However, if one can put their trust in the extended, 250-hour models, that high could reach 594mb during the second half of next week while being closer to SoCal, centered over Arizona. That could make for rather pleasant, summer-like weather over SoCal — but it's too early to call that right now.
Taking all of this into account, here's how I'm calling SoCal beach weather for the next few days:
Today (Sunday the 24th) should see marine layer dissipate early afternoon with beach max temps in the upper 60s.
Monday the 25th should see AM marine layer, burn-off around noon, and max beach temps in the mid 60s.
Tuesday the 26th should see AM marine layer, especially thick south of LA. Drizzle is likely, especially south of LA. Marine layer will likely clear early to mid afternoon from LA north but may linger most of the day in OC and SD. Beach max temps should reach the low to mid 60s.
Wednesday the 27th looks similar with AM marine layer, thickest south of LA; and drizzle in the morning, especially south of LA. Marine layer will likely clear early to mid afternoon from LA north but may linger most of the day in OC and SD. High clouds should also be visible during any marine layer breaks. Beach max temps should reach the low to mid 60s.
Thursday the 28th should see a thick AM marine layer. It may clear at the coast by early afternoon but may linger inland (a reverse clearing pattern). Max beach temps should reach the mid 60s.
Friday the 29th should see a thinner marine layer with a mid to late AM burn-off and max beach temps in the upper 60s.
Wind Outlook:
Winds
at 7:00 AM were lightly onshore in most spots 3-8 mph. Onshores should increase later this morning and reach 15 mph this afternoon.
Monday the 25th should see AM light and variables with an onshore westerly element, reaching 10-15 mph onshore by noon, and then 15-20 mph onshore by mid afternoon.
Tuesday the 26th is expected to see AM light and variables with an onshore element, reaching 15 mph onshore by noon, and then 20 mph onshore by mid afternoon.
Wednesday the 27th will likely see AM light and variables with an onshore element, reaching 15 mph onshore by noon, and then 20 mph onshore by mid afternoon.
Thursday the 28th will likely see AM light and variables with an onshore element, reaching 15 mph onshore by the afternoon.
Friday the 29th will likely see AM light and variables with an onshore element, reaching 15 mph onshore by the afternoon.
Until my next report (Tuesday), take care, be safe, and smile in the lineup!
