SoCal Forecast
Updated most Sundays, Tuesdays, and Thursdays

Tuesday 9/22/26 5:50 AM
By Nathan Cool

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At a glance:
Today (Tuesday the 22nd) we have moderately sized, southern hemisphere ground swell in SoCal. Minor NW ground swell comes into the mix tomorrow. Moderately sized SW ground swell from Odalys is due Friday the 25th. Bigger swell from Polo is being watched for early next week, along with swell from Dujuan. Light to moderate southern hemi is likely for the 4th-5th, although models hint at another round of tropical swell around that time. Condition-wise: precip dropped from forecast; winds stay moderate; tide levels run high late in the day; and water temps remain above normal.

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Current Conditions:
Early this morning, periods were primarily running 15-18 seconds from 210°.

Most south facing breaks were running chest high on the better sets. Direct west facing spots were mostly waist high.

Buoys in the outer waters were running 5'. Nearshore buoys were running 2.0-2.7' with almost all of that being southern hemi ground swell.

Tide levels are running at moderate levels for daytime sessions but higher tides will occur in the evening as we approach a Full Moon Saturday the 26th. Today we have a 4.5' high around 8:30 AM, a 2.5' low around 1:30 PM, and a 5.5' high around 7:30 PM.

Water temps were running 73-75° around most of SD and OC. LA was running 72° in most spots. In VC, Channel Islands Harbor reported 72° last night. SB Harbor reported 71° this morning.

Surf Forecast:
Today (Tuesday the 22nd) we're seeing the second round of southern hemisphere ground swell that originated near New Zealand a couple weeks ago (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):

This should peak in SoCal Wednesday the 23rd with chest high sets at south facing breaks, angled from 215° and periods 17 seconds.

Wednesday the 23rd should also see light to moderate NW ground swell in the mix from this system that was in the Gulf of Alaska (model from NOAA OPC):

Although housing 25' seas, that storm stayed at very high latitudes, angling swell from a difficult 320-325° (page 45). This should produce waist to at times chest high waves at west facing breaks Wednesday the 23rd with periods 14 seconds. Southern hemi should do better with chest high waves at south facing breaks Wednesday.

Thursday the 24th should see the southern hemi decline as the NW lingers. Most breaks should run waist to chest high.

Friday the 25th should see SW ground swell from Odalys, shown here on the 24-hour projection (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):

This is a slight downgrade from earlier models. But with 20' seas from that location and course, SoCal's south facing breaks can expect chest max sets Friday, angled from 205° and periods 13 seconds. That's just one day out, and with all models in agreement confidence is high. In any case, this swell should linger at chest high or so at south facing breaks Saturday the 26th, and then waist to chest Sunday the 27th. NW swell, btw, will be minimal around this time.

Monday the 28th, building quickly in the morning and peaking by early Tuesday the 29th, we could see strong SE ground swell from Polo, shown here at its expected peak for SoCal swell five days from now (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):

Polo has already reached CAT-5 status with winds reaching 175 mph shortly. However, Polo is currently positioned off Mexico, east of our swell window, which we can see from space this morning (image from NOAA GOES):

The red line is SoCal's surf Rubicon (of sorts) at 110°W longitude. Once storms pass that mark, then SE ground swell becomes better focused at SoCal. That should happen in a few days with Polo still running at CAT-4 status. Yet Polo should stay southeasterly from SoCal, making for a tricky angle for some south facing breaks. Taking all of this into account, size calculates to face heights reaching 15' (TOH) at breaks that can work a steep, 160° swell angle. Many south facing breaks will pick up diffracted energy (page 77) likely in the DOH range (10-12' faces). Periods would run as fast as 18 seconds but its proximity means we'd see a variety of periods in the mix (page 161). We're still in the very early stages of this storm and it needs a lot more monitoring over the next few days.

Late Monday the 28th into Tuesday the 29th, along with swell from Polo we should also see NW ground swell from Dujuan in the Western Pacific (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):

Dujuan has peaked with 30-35' seas, which from that distance (about 4,200 nautical miles) and course should result in chest to head high sets at west facing breaks, angled from 300-305° and periods 17 seconds. Swell would be spotty though with few waves per sets and long lulls between sets; that is, if Dujuan was the only swell in SoCal. Given how strong Polo's swell would be, swell from Dujuan may be equal to — or possibly less than — Polo's wrap into west facing spots, which would have much higher consistency.

Wednesday the 30th would likely see Polo's swell back off but still stay quite strong in SoCal. Early estimates point to surf well overhead, possibly upwards of DOH at south facing spots. West facing breaks would likely run chest to head high from the last of Dujuan. Both swells would back down further Thursday the 1st; however, I'll need more time to see how Polo develops.

Sunday the 4th is the next swell on my charts this morning from this mild fetch east of New Zealand (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):

With 20-25' seas on that ideal northerly course, SoCal's south facing breaks should run waist to chest high. Swell should be angled from 205-210° and periods 14 seconds. This is on the 2-day outlook and all models are in agreement this morning.

Sunday the 4th is also the timeframe for the next potential tropical swell, shown here on the extended long range (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):

It's far too early to call a tropical system on the 10-day. But early estimates point to sets running 1-2' overhead at south facing breaks, angled from 180° and periods 16 seconds. But there's no way to call that with any level of confidence right now.

Thursday the 8th is the next potential swell from this low latitude activity in the Southern Ocean on the 6-day (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):

So far, that looks like a waist high swell for south facing breaks, angled from 215° and periods 16 seconds.

And last but not least, in case you missed it from my Sunday report I wanted to wrap up the surf section to clarify the recently sensationalized and misinterpreted warnings of a Kelvin Wave heading to SoCal, linked to this year's El Niño. Here is that discussion in case you missed it:

From 9/20/26 - El Niño and the Kelvin Wave: While the name sounds ominous, much of the media has misconstrued Kelvin Waves as giant surface swells or destructive tsunami-like waves. But that's not the case. Instead, oceanic Kelvin Waves are a common, foundational ingredient of every El Niño. Kelvin Waves don't ride at the surface of the ocean; instead, they are subsurface masses of warm water that drive El Niño's climate engine. Without Kelvin Waves we wouldn't have El Niño. But there are things to be aware of this year, so I'd like to separate the facts from media hype.

Westerly Wind Bursts (WWBs) are the trigger for Kelvin Waves and for the most part, El Niño itself. As you may know, under normal conditions, strong trade winds blow east to west, piling up warm water in the Western Pacific. But when those trade winds weaken, then that warm water moves to the Eastern Pacific, creating an El Niño. But if those winds don't just weaken but actually reverse, then we call that a Westerly Wind Burst, which drives more warm water at a faster rate to the Eastern Pacific, resulting in more warmth in the El Niño zones extending off Peru. That's a Kelvin Wave.

Once a Kelvin Wave reaches South America, the warm water essentially splits with a significant portion traveling north, morphing into what's known as a "Coastal Kelvin Wave". But once again, it's not a breaking wave — it's a mass of warm water. And this is where things get interesting.

Kelvin Waves are part of all El Niños and they played a role in the 1997 El Niño when Kelvin Waves started in December 1996 and lasted through mid 1997. The 2015 El Niño had Kelvin Waves too, which started in the spring of that year. For our current El Niño, Kelvin Waves started as early as January 2026 and we had strong Kelvin Waves in the spring. In June, after a strong Kelvin Wave made it to South America, it split and formed a Coastal Kelvin Wave that reached SoCal. Of all the Kelvin Waves so far this year, a fourth one occurred this summer, which is the one that the media has homed in on. Yet it, and the Kelvin Waves before it, are leading up to the same result.

Kelvin Waves bring warm water. Since warm water expands, sea levels rise, and that's what happened from this year's developing El Niño (known as thermal expansion). This year's event is similar in regards to past El Niños in that warm water has increased sea levels near SoCal. This happens with each El Niño. In 1997, sea levels rose 8-12" above normal. In 2015 they rose 6-10". And right now, sea levels are about 6-12" above normal. This year though, a compounding factor is the lack of sand at many beaches that were heavily eroded from this summer's swells — Marie in particular, adding a wrench in the works.

When Marie slammed SoCal, a tidal swing was underway with high tides in the 6' range. Add another 12" to that from thermal expansion and you essentially have a 7' high tide. Such an extreme high tide, combined with exceptionally heavy surf from Marie, added to the beach erosion. Even without the extra foot in sea level rise, the combo of very high tides and Marie's powerful surf would no doubt have caused some erosion. Adding the extra foot (or so) from thermal expansion worsened the erosion. Either way, we now have something to contend with, and prepare for.

Having less sand barrier now from this summer's beach erosion, combined with higher sea levels from warmer waters brought on by El Niño and the Kelvin Waves driving it, there is a higher risk of coastal flooding and further erosion during upcoming swells — not just for the short term like from Polo, but more so during the winter from El Niño-influenced NW swells. But the Kelvin Waves are just one aspect of this year's El Niño.

This year's El Niño is on track to reach a record "signal" strength, but we need to put that into perspective (image from NOAA CPC):

Over the next couple months (OND for October, November, December), this year's El Niño should have a strength of about 2.6°C. By comparison, the El Niño of 2015-16 measured 2.6°C, and the 1997-98 Niño was 2.4°C. But that's measuring warm water in the El Niño zones. If we take a look at the bigger picture, water temperatures are warmer across the entire Pacific, and our planet as well.

For instance, here's what water temps looked like leading up to the 1997-98 El Niño (model from NOAA Coral Reef Watch):

In that older model the Pacific wraps from the left to right side of the image, different from more recent models I'll show for comparison. In any case, we can see the telltale red tongue of warm water extending off Peru (left side of the image), signaling a strong El Niño. But notice all of the blue water in the North Pacific, which represents below normal water temps in 1997. This is much different when we look at the water temps leading up to the "Godzilla" El Niño of 2015-16 (model from NOAA Coral Reef Watch):

Sure, we see the telltale tongue of warm water extending off Peru (center of this image), but notice what's absent: blue, colder water elsewhere in the Pacific. In fact, the North Pacific was dominated by marine heat waves in 2015 (coined "The Blob"). Overall though, with the North Pacific so warm in 2015 there was less difference between warmth in the El Niño zones and the rest of the North Pacific. Differences in temperature determine weather, which is likely why 1997-98 saw over 30" of rain in parts of SoCal while 2015-16 saw just 10". El Niño warming was stronger in 2015, but so was the rest of the North Pacific, resulting in a different weather pattern compared to 1997-98.

If we now take a look at the present state of El Niño, we see something similar to 2015, not 1997 (model from NOAA Coral Reef Watch):

El Niño warmth is evident off Peru. But waters are exceptionally warm in the North Pacific too. If we put a measurement on this difference between the El Niño zones compared to the rest of the North Pacific, the 1997-98 event was about Δ4°C. But today the difference is about Δ2°C.

Although media coverage of El Niño's Kelvin Waves has been largely misleading, it distracts from the fact that we need to prepare for the worst. When headlines become hyperbole, they're sadly seen as crying wolf, as though the whole thing should be discounted. But it shouldn't. Instead, the 2.6°C forecast for this year's El Niño is a warning to make immediate preparations. No one can say with a high degree of certainty if this winter will be similar to 1997-98, 2015-16, or other El Niño seasons. There is a high "likelihood" of above average rainfall and powerful winter swells. And even though that is "probability", it warrants preparation.

Kelvin Waves and El Niño as a whole are still in the nascent stages of science and our overall understanding. As I mention more than once in Wave by Wave, we're just a few specs of carbon on a water-filled rock that's spinning over 1,000 mph while racing around a modest star at a blinding 67,000 mph within an insignificant solar system housing a handful of planets traveling through a galaxy at 514,000 mph that's whipping through a universe at 1.3 million mph. You, I, and everything on Earth will never be in the exact same place in space ever again — even from second to second we enter new cosmic territory as we hurtle through the universe. And as we barrel through the cosmos, our planet spins and rotates through numerous cycles. We can use science to work within these cycles to gauge what might occur as these same cycles influence Earth's climate and give us insight — but not assuredness.

Our world of waves and weather is a constantly moving target. The short term — let alone the long term — forecast needs much more monitoring. But as long as I have your support then I can continue to keep an eye on the Pacific to keep you posted. Please remember this report is funded by reader donations and your help is needed to keep it alive (see why here).

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Here's a brief look at how the next few days are breaking down so far:

Wednesday the 23rd looks about chest high at south facing breaks and waist to chest high at west facing spots.

Thursday the 24th looks about waist to chest at south facing breaks and waist to chest at west facing spots.

Friday the 25th is expected to run chest max at south facing breaks and waist high at west facing spots.

Saturday the 26th is expected to run chest high at south facing brakes and waist high at west facing spots.

Sunday the 27th should run waist to chest at south facing breaks and waist high at west facing breaks.

Monday the 28th, so far, is expected to see strong swell from Polo. Early estimates point to at least DOH sets at many south facing breaks by midmorning, but up to TOH at SE exposed spots. This is still very early in the forecast and needs more monitoring.

Tuesday the 29th, so far, is expected to see strong swell from Polo with similar size: DOH at many south facing breaks but up to TOH at SE exposed spots. This is still very early in the forecast and needs more monitoring.

Wednesday the 30th will likely see swell from Polo fade, but it's too early to call that right now.

 

Weather Outlook:
Today (Tuesday the 22nd) the recent low pressure trough that sagged into SoCal is moving east as weak high pressure backfills behind it. This should make for slightly warmer weather Wednesday the 23rd and Thursday the 24th with better clearing, with the peak day for the high being Wednesday. A trough of low pressure then pushes south toward SoCal Friday the 25th, digging deeper into SoCal by Sunday the 27th. None of this will make much difference in beach weather over the next few days but there will be some day-to-day differences in marine layer and upper-level high clouds at times.

The only other notable weather news today is that precip has been dropped from most models from Polo. Precip was originally slated for Thursday the 1st but Polo is expected to turn east into Baja before nearing SoCal. That's at least what models favor today, but Polo would still get within a stone's throw from SoCal, making this worthy to watch.

Taking all of this into account, here's how I'm calling SoCal beach weather for the next few days:

Today (Tuesday the 22nd) should see an early burn-off, more so north of LA, midmorning farther south, and max beach temps in the mid 70s.

Wednesday the 23rd should see AM marine layer, burn-off early to mid morning, and max beach temps in the mid 70s.

Thursday the 24th should see AM marine layer, burn-off early to mid morning, and max beach temps in the mid to upper 70s.

Friday the 25th should see an early burn-off followed by high clouds at times, and max beach temps in the mid to upper 70s.

Saturday the 26th should see an early burn-off followed by high clouds at times, and max beach temps in the mid 70s.

Sunday the 27th should see an early burn-off followed by high clouds at times, and max beach temps in the low to mid 70s.

 

Wind Outlook:
Winds at 6:00 AM light and variable most everywhere. Afternoon onshores should run 15 mph.

Wednesday the 23rd should see AM light and variables with a slight offshore effect and afternoon onshores 8-12 mph.

Thursday the 24th should see AM light and variables with afternoon onshores 8-12 mph.

Friday the 25th should see AM light and variables with afternoon onshores 10-15 mph.

 

Until my next report (Thursday), take care, be safe, and smile in the lineup!

—Nathan

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