SoCal Forecast
Updated most Sundays, Tuesdays, and Thursdays
Sunday 7/26/26 6:40 AM
By Nathan Cool
Surf Charts for SoCal
Rincon | Ventura, C-St. | County Line | Malibu | Hermosa | Huntington BeachTrestles | Old Mans | Oceanside | Beacons | Sunset Cliffs
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At a glance:
Today (Sunday the 26th) long-period SW ground swell has arrived in SoCal. Another, slightly bigger southern hemi is due in a couple days. Substantial swell from Genevieve will fill in shortly after. Smaller swells are on tap next week. And I have an update today on the state of El Niño and other features affecting the longer term forecast. Condition-wise: non-stop heatwaves; winds mild to moderate through the forecast; a tidal swing is underway; water temps remain warm; and advisories are in effect.
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Current Conditions:
This morning, periods were primarily running 20 seconds from 195-210° and 8 seconds from 310°.
Most south facing breaks were running chest high with some head high pluses at standouts. Direct west facing breaks were mostly waist to chest, bigger at SW exposed spots.
Buoys in the outer waters were running 8-9'. Nearshore buoys were averaging 2.5'.
Tide levels are swinging wide as we approach a Full Moon Wednesday the 29th. Today we had a -0.5' low around 3:00 AM. We'll see a 3.5' high around 10:00 AM, a 2.8' low around 2:00 PM, and then a 6' high around 8:00 PM.
Water temps were running 72-75° around most of SD, OC, and LA. In VC, Channel Islands Harbor reported 73° last night. SB Harbor reported 72° last night.
Hazard Warnings: The risk of rip currents and sneaker waves will be elevated this week from back-to-back southern hemisphere ground swells, more so once swell from Genevieve arrives. The NWS has issued warnings as well for SB, VC, and LA here, and OC and SD here.
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Surf Forecast:
Today (Sunday the 26th) long-period southern hemisphere ground swell has made an on-time arrival from this system that was hugging the low latitudes about nine days ago (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
We also have some wind swell in the mix along with fading swell from Fausto. But the southern hemi is the dominant energy in SoCal today. This swell should continue Monday the 27th with similar size.
Tuesday the 28th is an interesting day for surf in SoCal as southern hemi swell will get a boost while hurricane swell starts to make an appearance. The southern hemi boost will be from this system that peaked near New Zealand about a week ago, travelling on a decent, wave-worthy course (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
That alone should produce sets running chest to head high at south facing breaks Tuesday the 28th, angled from 210° and periods 18 seconds. This swell will continue Wednesday the 29th and Thursday the 30th. But by mid to late afternoon Tuesday the 28th we should see the first signs of swell from Hurricane Genevieve, poised to reach CAT-4 status shortly (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
Early Monday morning (7/27) Genevieve should be pumping up seas in the 40' range, but barely inside the SoCal swell window past the southern tip of Baja. That portion of her swell should arrive around mid afternoon Tuesday the 28th, angled from a difficult 160° (page 45). For breaks that can work a steep SE angle, sets upwards of DOH can be expected late Tuesday; HOWEVER, most south facing breaks will see lesser, diffracted energy (page 77) and will likely see less consistent sets running head high to a couple feet overhead. Initial periods should max out at 17-19 seconds, although shorter periods should also start filling in. That should change Wednesday.
Wednesday the 29th should see Genevieve's swell fill in better as the swell angle improves to 170-175°. Size should run 2-4' overhead at many south facing breaks with max periods running 17 seconds. Other, shorter periods will be in the mix making for high consistency (page 153).
Thursday the 30th should see what will look like Genevieve's peak in SoCal as the swell angle improves to 180°. Genevieve should have taken a slightly more westerly turn, so there will be some loss from angular spread (page 52). Still, most south facing breaks should run 2-4' overhead with periods 17 seconds max, but shorter periods remain in the mix with high consistency. This is also the angle that can create pluses at some spots that work refraction through the San Diego Trough (see page 111 in Wave by Wave), so it's possible that some spots could see sets upwards of DOH on Thursday.
Friday the 31st will likely still see sets running 2-4' overhead at south facing breaks as that's the last prime position for Genevieve's swell. She'll likely weaken before then too. Saturday the 1st should see the final remnants running head high to a couple feet overhead at south facing breaks. Sunday the 2nd should drop to chest to head high.
Monday the 3rd through Friday the 7th look like small days in the SoCal surf zone. Other hurricanes on last week's long range models are nonexistent now, and there was a lapse in southern hemi activity too.
Saturday the 8th is the next swell on the charts right now from this system heading north off Antarctica on the 5-day models (model by NOAA MAG):
That's the GFS's take on it, which is more bullish than other models. Best case so far looks about waist to chest high at south facing breaks, angled from 200° with periods 17 seconds.
Looking out further on the SoCal surf and weather horizon, models continue to trend rather high for El Niño becoming quite strong in a few months (model from NOAA CPC)
The thick dashed line shows the model mean, topping out around 2.5°C anomalous by the winter. By comparison, the El Niño of 2015-16 measured 2.6°C, and the 1997-98 was 2.4°C. So this year's El Niño should be right up there with those exceptionally active events. This time around though we're also dealing with Marine Heat Waves (MHV); in particular, one sitting off Baja and SoCal (model from NOAA Coral Reef Watch):
That mass of warm water off Baja is essentially merging with the warm waters in the El Niño zones, which is something new this time around. That particular marine heat wave is thought to be caused from a lack of cold water upwelling from fewer northerly wind events this past year. Models right now show that marine heat wave weakening after the winter, but tracking these warm-water events is still in its infancy. Still, there is one thing that could affect the sustainability of the marine heat waves and El Niño: The PDO (page 159).
Currently, the PDO is in a negative state. Being out of phase with this year's El Niño means there would be a lack of long-term support for warming waters. However, the PDO has warmed 50% since this time last year, which raises another question: when will the PDO shift to support higher El Niño frequency? The PDO's last warm cycle ended around 2019 after lasting five years — half as long as usual. The PDO has been in a cool phase since, putting us in year 6. Since this climate cycle spans decades (something I talk about in Surf, Flood, Fire & Mud), we would think that we'd have at least a few more years before the PDO flips the script to support warming trends. However, in the past few decades, PDO cycles have spanned 4-7 years, which increases the probability for a warming cycle to start soon. If the PDO can trend warmer later this year or even early next year, then we're looking at higher probability of the marine heat waves continuing and, more importantly, more frequent — or longer sustained — El Niños.
Earth's oceans, atmosphere, and their symbiotic nature affect not just our weather, but waves too. Right now there are numerous variables at play, some of which are throwing curveballs at seasonal forecasts. There is literally a first time for everything, and right now we're on the edge of discovery (or at least refinement) as we step into new, historic frontiers affecting weather and climate cycles. There is a lot to monitor, but as long as I have your support then I can continue to keep an eye on the Pacific to keep you posted. Please remember this report is funded by reader donations and your help is crucial to keep it alive (see why here).
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Here's a brief look at how the next few days are breaking down so far:
Monday the 27th looks about chest high at south facing breaks with some head high pluses at times at standouts.
Tuesday the 28th looks about chest to head high at south facing spots in the early morning. Hurricane swell should arrive mid afternoon, with breaks able to work a steep SE angle running well overhead.
Wednesday the 29th should run 2-4' overhead at breaks able to work a SE angle (170deg;), but head high at south facing breaks that lack good SE exposure. Rogue waves with bigger size are highly likely.
Thursday the 30th should run 2-4' overhead at most south facing breaks.
Friday the 31st looks about 2-4' overhead at south facing breaks.
Saturday the 1st, so far, looks head high to slightly overhead at south facing breaks.
Sunday the 2nd, so far, looks about head chest to at times head high at south facing breaks.
Monday the 3rd, so far, looks about waist to chest max at south facing breaks.
Tuesday the 4th, so far, looks about waist high at south facing spots.
Weather Outlook:
Today (Sunday the 26th) tropical rain was moving through parts of southern OC and northern SD with a couple inland blips around LA. Elsewhere, tropical clouds should stream through the region today but not so much for the rest of the week.
Overall, beaches are looking at a redundant weather pattern this week and likely next week too. But there will be some variations in temps — and somewhat marine layer — as high pressure waxes and wanes through the forecast. High pressure remains pretty much centered across the 4-Corners, stretching into SoCal, measuring strong at around 598dm today but weakening Monday through Thursday by a tick or two each day. Temperature-wise it's not earth shattering for the coast, with maybe a couple degrees of cooling each day inland. But starting Friday the 31st that high is forecast to strengthen to 600dm, signaling heatwave inevitability. However, models have greatly downgraded tropical moisture, which coincides with today's absence of hurricane swells in the forecast after Genevieve. So while temps will start to rise Friday into the weekend, at least it shouldn't feel as oppressive as it has been.
BTW: models show the 4-Corners high exceeding 600dm by Tuesday the 4th, which could kick off yet another heatwave. And from 8/4 through 8/8, the ensembles show tropical moisture, and maybe precip returning to the forecast.
Taking all of this into account, here's how I'm calling SoCal beach weather for the next few days:
Today (Sunday the 26th), precip in OC and SD aside, most areas should see tropical clouds into the afternoon with beach max temps in the mid to upper 70s.
Monday the 27th should see thin AM marine layer with a burn-off early morning and max beach temps in the mid to upper 70s.
Tuesday the 28th should see AM marine layer with a burn-off early morning followed and max beach temps in the mid to upper 70s.
Wednesday the 29th should see AM marine layer with a burn-off midmorning followed and max beach temps in the mid to upper 70s.
Thursday the 30th should see AM marine layer with a burn-off midmorning followed and max beach temps in the mid to upper 70s.
Friday the 31st should see AM marine layer with a burn-off early morning followed and max beach temps in the mid to upper 70s.
Wind Outlook:
Winds
at 7:00 AM were light and variable most everywhere. Afternoon onshores should run 7-11 mph. No major change is expected through at least Friday the 31st.
Until my next report (Tuesday), take care, be safe, and smile in the lineup!
