SoCal Forecast
Updated most Sundays, Tuesdays, and Thursdays
Thursday 8/6/26 6:45 AM
By Nathan Cool
Surf Charts for SoCal
Rincon | Ventura, C-St. | County Line | Malibu | Hermosa | Huntington BeachTrestles | Old Mans | Oceanside | Beacons | Sunset Cliffs
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Temporary Schedule Change: I have a family gathering Sunday morning so I may issue my Sunday report either some time on Saturday, or late in the day Sunday, depending on how things develop over the next few days. You can sign up for the free email list above to be notified when new reports are posted.
At a glance:
Today (Thursday the 6th) is a small day for surf in SoCal. The same goes for Friday. SW ground swell is due this weekend. Hurricane swell is becoming possible during the second half of next week. Either way, decent sized southern hemi is due by the end of next week. Condition-wise: fair weather and winds at the coast; tide levels swing wider over the next few days; and water temps remain warm.
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Current Conditions:
Early this morning, periods were primarily running 12 seconds from 180° and 9 seconds from 315°.
Most breaks were running knee to waist high.
Buoys in the outer waters were running 3-4'. Nearshore buoys were averaging 1.9'.
Tide levels will swing wider over the next few days as we approach a New Moon Wednesday the 12th. Today we have a 2.5' low around 8:30 AM, a 5.5' high around 4:00 PM, and a 0.5' low around midnight. That late afternoon high will run later and deeper each day, nearing 7' by early next week.
Water temps were running 73-77° around most of SD and OC. LA was mostly 71-73°. In VC, Channel Islands Harbor reported 73° last night. In SB, Stearns Wharf reported 70° this morning.
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Surf Forecast:
Today (Thursday the 6th) and Friday the 7th are small days in the SoCal surf zone but there will be some improvement this weekend.
Saturday the 8th (building quickly) into Sunday the 9th (peak) should see SW ground swell from this system that traveled north off Antarctica last week (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):
That system housed 30' seas, which works out to chest high sets at south facing breaks when this swell peaks in SoCal Sunday the 9th (building Saturday the 8th). Swell should be angled from 195° and periods 17 seconds. This swell should continue Monday the 10th at chest max at south facing spots.
Tuesday the 11th (building day) into Wednesday the 12th (peak) should see spotty, intermittent SW ground swell from this system that had decent sized seas but a less than ideal course for SoCal surf (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):
Although housing 35-40' seas, its course resulted in a high degree of angular decay (page 52). Size should run waist to chest high at south facing breaks, angled from 205° and periods 18 seconds. This swell looks inconsistent so there should be few waves per set and long lulls between sets. This swell should continue Thursday the 13th, but that's when things could get interesting.
Thursday the 13th (building day?) into Friday the 14th (peak?) has a chance of seeing hurricane swell from this system on the 6-day outlook (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):
That's the GFS model's take on it, which is the most bullish this morning. The ECMWF and various ensembles show a weaker storm. If the GFS has it right, then we're looking at seas in the 35' range, which would result in sets running 3-4' overhead at south facing breaks with swell angled from 165° and periods as long as 18 seconds (shorter periods would also be in the mix). Right now I'd put "tropical" swell of some sort in the 75% category, but sizable "hurricane" swell of this magnitude would be about a 20% chance. Still, confidence is high for two reasons, the first being the warmer than normal water temps from El Niño and the persistent Marine Heat Wave (MHW) near SoCal (model from NOAA Coral Reef Watch):
This has been giving hurricanes an ideal runway to charge northward in our swell window with plenty of fuel to become strong cyclones. The second reason for optimism is this weather pattern, which needs more monitoring as it could affect hurricane guidance (model by NOAA MAG):
High pressure over the 4-Corners (blue arrow) could help the hurricane (red arrow) move north from the high's clockwise spin. But the wrench in the works is a trough of low pressure (yellow arrow), which could affect how broad the 4-Corners high becomes. This is where models diverge the most right now, so I'll need more time to see how/if they converge.
BTW: I'll be posting my next report either late Saturday or late Sunday depending on how things develop.
In any case, hurricane or no, Friday the 14th (building day) into Saturday the 15th (peak) should see SW ground swell from this system near New Zealand (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):
That system is coming to its peak this morning with seas measuring 30-35'. The course is ideal for SoCal with very little loss from angular spread. Running the numbers (page 57), size is coming in at chest+ for most south facing breaks by Saturday the 15th with standouts seeing pluses in the head high range. Swell should be angled from 210° and periods 17 seconds. This swell should continue Sunday the 16tn with similar size, then back down to chest high Monday the 17th and then waist to chest Tuesday the 18th. However, the potential hurricane could change this portion of the forecast.
Wednesday the 19th will likely see light to moderate SW ground swell from this system on the 3-day models (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):
Models are aligned on this one housing 30' seas but staying in the low latitudes. Size right now works out to waist to chest at south facing breaks, angled from 205° and periods 16 seconds. Another system on the 7-day models shows a similar swell on the 23rd.
All of this needs more monitoring, but as long as I have your support then I can continue to keep an eye on the Pacific to keep you posted. Please remember this report is funded by reader donations and your help is vital to keep it alive (see why here).
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Here's a brief look at how the next few days are breaking down so far:
Friday the 7th looks about waist max at most spots.
Saturday the 8th is expected to run chest high at south facing breaks by midmorning. Swell will just start filling in on Saturday so it could make sets spotty. West facing breaks should run waist max.
Sunday the 9th is expected to run chest high at south facing spots. West facing breaks should run waist max.
Monday the 10th is expected to run chest max at south facing spots. West facing breaks should run waist max.
Tuesday the 11th is expected to run waist to chest high at south facing spots with spotty swell and inconsistent sets. West facing breaks should run knee to waist.
Wednesday the 12th is expected to run waist to chest high at south facing spots but with inconsistent sets. West facing breaks should run knee to waist.
Thursday the 13th, so far, holds potential for hurricane swell. I'll know more on this over the next couple days. If not, then waist high waves would be expected at south facing breaks. But if the hurricane does develop as models show today, then head high+ surf would build during the day.
Friday the 14th, so far, holds potential for hurricane swell that could run a few feet overhead at south facing breaks. If not, then southern hemi ground swell would produce chest high sets at south facing breaks as southern hemi ground swell starts to fill in.
Saturday the 15th, so far, is also a toss-up for hurricane swell. Without it, southern hemi ground swell would produce chest+ sets at south facing breaks with head high pluses at standouts.
Sunday the 16th, so far, looks similar.
Weather Outlook:
Today (Thursday the 6th) high pressure over the 4-Corners region should change very little through the weekend, and then weaken slightly early next week. While that high is swirling some tropical moisture and clouds into SoCal, it's nothing compared to last month. In fact, gradients should trend onshore through the forecast, reaching well over 8mb onshore (page 127) each afternoon today through Tuesday the 11th (and about 4mb onshore in the mornings). Models show that gradient pushing 10mb in the afternoons starting Wednesday the 12th, making for one heck of an onshore push. All of this, along with a moderate inversion (page 131) should allow for morning marine layer to develop with burn-offs by late morning each day. However, any influx of tropical moisture can hinder marine layer development, so it may be spotty in some areas, especially south of LA where most of the tropical moisture would end up.
Taking all of this into account, here's how I'm calling SoCal beach weather for the next few days:
Today (Thursday the 6th) should see burn-off mid to late morning and max beach temps in the low to mid 70s.
Friday the 7th should see AM marine layer with burn-off by midmorning and max beach temps in the low to mid 70s.
Saturday the 8th should see AM marine layer with burn-off mid to late morning and max beach temps in the low to mid 70s.
Sunday the 9th should see AM marine layer with burn-off by noon and max beach temps in the low to mid 70s.
Monday the 10th should see AM marine layer with burn-off by noon, tropical clouds at times, and max beach temps in the low to mid 70s.
Tuesday the 11th should see AM marine layer with burn-off by noon, tropical clouds at times, and max beach temps in the low to mid 70s.
Wind Outlook:
Winds
at 6:00 AM were light and variable most everywhere. Afternoon onshores should run 10-15 mph. No major change is expected Friday through the weekend.
Until my next report (Saturday or Sunday late in the day), take care, be safe, and smile in the lineup!
