SoCal Forecast
Updated most Sundays, Tuesdays, and Thursdays

Tuesday 10/27/26 5:55 AM
By Nathan Cool

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At a glance:
Today (Tuesday the 27th) we have a light mix of fading NW and SW swells in SoCal. A series of SW ground swells builds tomorrow through the second half of the week with bigger southern hemi over the weekend. Although southerly wind swell is being watched for Sunday the 1st. Moderate NW ground swell is becoming likely for Tuesday the 3rd. And much bigger NW ground swell is being monitored for the weekend of the 7th. Condition-wise: rain likely in a few days; winds shift through the forecast; tide levels are running deep; and water temps remain on the warm side.

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Current Conditions:
Early this morning, periods were primarily running 13 seconds from 190° and 7-12 seconds from 310-330°.

Most breaks were running waist to chest high.

Buoys in the outer waters were running 7'. Nearshore buoys were running 1.8' (south facing) to 2.6' (west facing).

Water temps were running 71-74° around most of SD and OC. LA was running 70-72°. In VC, Channel Islands Harbor reported 68° yesterday. In SB, Stearns Wharf reported 71° this morning.

Tidal Advisory: Water levels are running about 15-18" above normal as the Marine Heat Wave continues off Baja and SoCal, causing thermal expansion and thus higher sea levels. We're also experiencing deeper high tides from an 18.6-year lunar nodal cycle. While the tide tables account for the lunar cycle, they don't include the higher-than-normal sea levels from thermal expansion, so the tide tables need another 18" added to them to represent accurate levels. For instance, today's nearly 7' high around 10:00 AM is more along the lines of 8.5'. The NWS has issued coastal flood warnings and advisories for SB, VC, and LA here and OC and SD here.

Surf Forecast:
Today (Tuesday the 27th) is the smallest day in the surf forecast. Surf will slowly build tomorrow, more so by the weekend.

Wednesday the 28th and Thursday the 29th should see initially light to moderate SW ground swell from this activity that was hugging the ice cap about nine days ago (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):

That should produce initially waist to at times chest high waves at south facing breaks Wednesday the 28th and then more consistently waist to chest Thursday the 29th with swell angled from 205-210° and periods 16 seconds.

Thursday the 29th, along with the southern hemisphere swell, we should also see light NW ground swell from this system that formed near Kamchatka a few days ago (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):

That should produce waist to at times chest high waves at west facing breaks, angled from 310° and periods 15 seconds.

Friday the 30th into Saturday the 31st should see a slight boost at south facing breaks as swell comes ashore from these two systems that drifted north off Antarctica (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):

That should put south facing breaks into more consistent chest high sets Friday the 30th and then chest+ Saturday the 31st. Swell should be angled from 195-200° and periods 16 seconds.

Saturday the 31st (building day) into Sunday the 1st (peak) should see another boost in SW ground swell from this system took an ideal northerly course about four days ago, directing swell toward SoCal (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):

On its own, that should produce chest to head high sets to south facing breaks by Sunday the 1st, angled from 205° and periods 16-17 seconds. But wind swell may be an issue.

Sunday the 1st into Monday the 2nd could see WSW wind swell from a storm swinging into SoCal that should bring rain this weekend (see Weather section below). Although winds have been downgraded since my Sunday report, models are aligned on enough wind in the outer waters to create this fetch off SoCal (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):

Winds would be running about 40 mph just a few hundred miles southwest of SoCal. Seas would run about 15', which, on that direct course, would produce head high wind swell waves at SoCal's south facing breaks, angled from 220° with periods 6-12 seconds. Models have been struggling to align on this storm, but I'm sure that'll improve over the next couple days.

Tuesday the 3rd, as the wind swell backs down, we'll likely see NW ground swell from this system that should break off Kamachatka and peak south of the Aleutian Chain in a few days (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):

Based on the 3-day models, thai would produce chest to at times head high sets at west facing breaks, angled from 305-310° and periods 18 seconds. This swell would continue Wednesday the 4th and to a lesser degree Thursday the 5th; however, there are question marks on that since the next swell on my charts could start building around that time.

Saturday the 7th is looking at two NW ground swells with this one on the longer range models potentially bringing some swell a day or two earlier (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):

Models have stayed fairly consistent with that system over the past couple days, but we're still nine days out. If the long range models have it right, then that fetch would house 40'+ seas, which would easily produce DOH sets at SoCal's west facing breaks Saturday the 7th, angled from 295-300° and periods 17-19 seconds.

Saturday the 7th could also see lesser, secondary NW swell in the mix from this storm on the 6-day models breaking off Kamchatka (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):

That works out to chest high sets at west facing breaks, which is a far cry from the closer-proximity system bringing swell on the 7th, so the Kamchatka swell may go unnoticed. Both of these systems need more monitoring and I'll narrow in on them in the coming days.

BTW: Although it may go unnoticed, depending on the NorthPac swells, we should see light SW ground swell from this system Friday the 6th (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):

It's not a great course for SoCal surf with just enough angular spread (page 52) to produce waist sets at south facing breaks. Swell would be angled from 200° and periods 17 seconds. NW energy ahead of the major Gulf swell could overshadow that with NW wrap (see illustration on page 77). So I'll likely drop the southern hemi from the forecast.

And last up before getting to the day-to-day, Weather, and Winds, in case you missed it from my Sunday report the marine heat wave (MHW) off Baja and SoCal continues to be an area of concern for SoCal waves and weather as it shows no sign of letting up (model from NOAA Coral Reef Watch):

That marine heat wave, which started in 2025, warmed quite a bit this summer as high pressure cooked SoCal with numerous heatwaves while northerly winds were lacking to create any cold-water upwelling. As with every El Niño, the Kelvin Waves in this year's El Niño added to this warmth; although, those were only a small portion of the abnormal warmth off SoCal and Baja (more on that here). Taking a year to get to this point, the marine heat wave has become well established and should continue for quite some time. However, we may be reaching the peak of this year's El Niño (model from NOAA CPC)

If NOAA's PDF corrected models have it right, then El Niño could greatly weaken by the time we enter our rainiest months of January and February. Yet anything above 0.5°C signifies an El Niño state, so this shouldn't be taken as a downgrade right now. Instead, heavy NW ground swells and high rain totals remain likely over the coming months.

For the short term, the marine heat wave is the most concerning as sea levels are about 15-18" above normal from the Marine Heat Wave. And as mentioned earlier, we have higher than normal tides this year from an 18.6-year nodal lunar cycle. This lunar cycle will create higher than normal king tides for a few years. In fact, this will be more problematic this winter when king tides reach upwards of 7.5' around the Christmas holiday. That's the "predicted" height in the tide tables. Add another 1.5' on top of that from sea-level rise and we have a 9' high tide Christmas Eve and Christmas Day. If a storm and/or swell comes ashore then, there would be potential for storm surge adding another foot for high tide levels reaching or exceeding 10', which would inevitably cause coastal flooding and further beach erosion.

Overall, the Pacific is quite active with a lot to watch in the coming days, weeks, and months. But as long as I have your support then I can continue to monitor the Pacific to keep you posted. Please remember this report is funded by reader donations and your help is vital to keep it alive (see why here).

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Here's a brief look at how the next few days are breaking down so far:

Wednesday the 28th looks about waist to chest at south facing breaks, smaller at west facing spots.

Thursday the 29th looks about waist to chest at most breaks.

Friday the 30th looks about chest high at south facing breaks and waist to chest at west facing spots.

Saturday the 31st looks about chest to at times head high at south facing breaks and waist to chest at west facing spots.

Sunday the 1st, so far, is expected to see chest to head high sets at south facing breaks; however, there could be SW wind swell up to head high at south facing breaks as well. West facing breaks would work the wrap, likely topping out at chest high. Conditions are questionable.

Monday the 2nd, so far, is expected to see head high wind swell at south facing breaks with chest high wrap at west facing spots.

Tuesday the 3rd, so far, looks about chest to at times head high at west facing breaks. South facing breaks look about chest high.

Wednesday the 4th, so far, looks about chest max at most breaks.

Thursday the 5th, so far, looks about waist to chest at most breaks.

Friday the 6th, so far, looks about waist to chest at most breaks but swell may start to build from the NW.

Saturday the 7th, so far, holds potential for DOH sets at west facing breaks. This is out on the long range and needs much more monitoring.

 

Weather Outlook:
Today (Tuesday the 27th) the onshore flow is increasing as a trough of low pressure is pushing south from Canada. This initial trough should bottom out in Oregon and far NorCal. But a second trough should dig farther south, bringing rain to SoCal as early as Friday the 30th, but then heavy late afternoon Saturday the 31st into the morning of Sunday the 1st. Even though this storm would have jetstream guidance to give it higher confidence, models have struggled with latitude, position, and timing. For instance, here's the difference in rain totals between the GFS and ECMWF models, with a white box over SoCal (model by UQAM):

Note how the ECMWF takes the bulk of the rain through northern Baja but the GFS slams SoCal, especially around OC and SD. However, the latest, early morning run of the ECMWF started shifting its projection farther north, which is starting to align with the GFS. The GFS is thus the model I'd feel more comfortable with, which would bring rain totals of about 0.5-1" in those green areas, and 1.5-2" in the red areas.

The Debby Downer with this storm is that it could bring the bulk of its rain when trick-or-treating gets underway: as early as 5:00 PM Saturday the 31st everywhere, becoming heavier around 6:00 PM, and especially heavy after 7:00 PM. But with models being disparate between their own runs — let alone other models — I wouldn't count on that just yet. I'll be able to narrow in on timing much better when I do my Thursday report.

Halloween festivities aside, this does look like a hazardous storm with high rain rates, and wind will be a concern. Winds have been downgraded over the past 24 hours, but strong winds in the outer waters will inevitably cause storm surge. For instance, here are the projected wind gusts for Saturday night (model by UQAM):

Coastal winds should top out around 25 mph, which lessens the chance for downed trees and such. But the 40 mph winds off the coast would increase storm surge, which could increase sea levels by another foot or so as wind swell drives consistent waves into south facing breaks, raising the risk of coastal flooding. The saving grace (albeit slight) is that tide levels will settle down some this weekend. However, thermal expansion will keep sea levels higher than normal, so the added storm surge could make the weekend tides look similar to what we're seeing today.

Rain should clear out Monday the 2nd as weak to moderate high pressure builds over the American West for at least a few days of mild weather. In fact, models show a weak to moderate Santa Ana with the LAX-DAG gradient at -3 mb (see page 127) on Monday the 2nd, which should make for clear skies and slightly warmer temps. It'd be a short-lived offshore event with a flat, zonal flow by Wednesday the 4th.

More troughs are showing up on the longer range but none so far are consistent enough to call for rain right now.

Taking all of this into account, here's how I'm calling SoCal beach weather for the next few days:

Today (Tuesday the 27th) should see a quick AM burn-off and max beach temps in the low 70s.

Wednesday the 28th should see AM marine layer, mid to late AM burn-off, high clouds throughout the day, and max beach temps in the low 70s.

Thursday the 29th should see mostly cloudy skies and max beach temps in the upper 60s to low 70s.

Friday the 30th looks mostly cloudy with a chance for light precip at times, although likely trace to hundredths of an inch. Beach max temps should reach the upper 60s.

Saturday the 31st, so far, is looking at AM marine layer, high clouds most of the day and beach max temps in the low to mid 60s. Rain is expected, which could become heavy late afternoon or early evening.

Sunday the 1st should see rain taper off throughout the morning, clearing in the afternoon. Beach max temps should reach the upper 60s.

Monday the 2nd should see clear skies with beach max temps in the low 70s.

 

Wind Outlook:
Winds at 6:00 AM were light and variable most everywhere with a slight offshore element. Afternoon onshores should run 8-12 mph.

Wednesday the 28th should see AM light and variables with afternoon onshores 8-12 mph.

Thursday the 29th should see AM light and variables with afternoon onshores 8-12 mph.

Friday the 30th should see AM light and variables with afternoon onshores 10-15 mph.

Saturday the 31st, so far, will likely see southerly winds pick up throughout the day, likely topping out at 15 mph in the afternoon.

Sunday the 1st, so far, is expected to see AM onshores 5-10 mph and afternoon onshores 15-20 mph.

 

Until my next report (Thursday), take care, be safe, and smile in the lineup!

—Nathan

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