SoCal Forecast
Updated most Sundays, Tuesdays, and Thursdays

Friday 9/25/26 4:00 PM
By Nathan Cool

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At a glance:
This afternoon (Friday the 25th) there are updates to Odalys and Polo that will affect SoCal, so I'm issuing an update ahead of my regularly scheduled report for Sunday. Both hurricanes have strengthened, but their courses have changed somewhat. We also have NW swells in the mix early next week. Another possible hurricane swell has shown up on the models for the weekend of the 3rd-4th. A new NW ground swell is showing signs of promise for the 6th-7th. And a moderately sized SW ground swell is being watched for the 8th-9th. Condition-wise: weather and winds shift more than once through the forecast with winds problematic at times; a tidal swing is underway; water temps remain above normal; and warnings and advisories are in effect.

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Current Conditions:
Late This afternoon, periods were primarily running 11-13 seconds from 210° and 11 seconds from 315°.

Most all breaks were running chest high with head high pluses at standout south facing spots.

Buoys in the outer waters were running 5'. Nearshore buoys were averaging 2.7'.

Tide levels are swinging wider as we approach a Full Moon Saturday the 26th. This will further impact beach erosion potential as the hurricane swells come ashore, especially over the next 72 hours.

Water temps were running 72-75° around most of SD and OC. LA was running 70-73° in most spots. In VC, Channel Islands Harbor reported 72° this morning. SB Harbor reported 73° this afternoon.

Hazard Warnings: Strong swell from Odalys and Polo will create a number of hazards over the next few days, especially starting Sunday the 27th. While rip current risk will be elevated, rogue waves are highly likely. There will also be an elevated risk of further beach erosion and coastal flooding as we'll be in a tidal swing with high tides in the 6' range. The NWS has issued warnings as well. You can see the latest warnings and advisories for SB, VC, and LA here and OC and SD here. Caution is advised.

Surf Forecast:
Today (Friday the 25th) swell from Odalys has been filling in on schedule. But we're in for a bigger — although short-lived — round of swell late Saturday the 26th into Sunday the 27th as Odalys strengthened today with 125 mph winds. This is now kicking up an impressive fetch on a course toward SoCal (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):

Seas are upgraded to 30'. And on that course we'll see little angular loss (page 52). Working the numbers from Odalys now, we should expect swell to build to at least head high at south facing breaks for the early morning hours Saturday the 26th. But then at some point in the day, likely early afternoon, size should briefly increase to 3-4' overhead at south facing breaks. Swell should run upwards of head high Sunday the 27th. Swell should stay angled from around 200° with periods topping out around 16 seconds, which brings up an issue to be aware of.

The automated forecast charts on WaveCast (and possibly other forecasting sites) will show smaller waves than what we can expect. This is mainly due to the proximity of Odalys and Polo. Being so close to SoCal, their shorter periods won't have enough runway to dissipate, so there will be a high density of short periods and low density of long periods in the mix. Swells from storms thousands of miles away have much more distance, and thus time, for the short periods to fall behind and arrive later. But that won't happen with these swells; instead, it'll be everything all at once. But since it's the longer periods that cause the bigger waves, that is what I use to forecast all swells. Yet the nearshore wave data for the automated charts doesn't always account for that; instead, it utilizes the highest density of wave energy, which in this case will be shorter periods with smaller wave size. Thus, my forecast here will not align with the charts for these hurricane swells.

In any case, Sunday the 27th is an in-between day. Swell from Odalys will be fading but still should hold at near head high at south facing spots. This is also the time when rogue wave forerunners could show up from Polo, which is the next swell to talk about.

Polo regained strength today with winds blowing 180 mph early this afternoon. This, as it was nearing 110W longitude, which is the magic mark for SoCal swell (below the southern tip of Baja). Once a fetch passes that mark, swell is better focused on SoCal; however, SoCal's longitude starts at around 117W, so we need storms to not just meet, but pass 110W. Polo should do that shortly, reaching 112W, which still isn't directly aimed at SoCal, but close enough to get a good deal of diffracted energy (page 77). With that said, here's how Polo should look early Saturday morning, entering our swell window with impressive seas (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):

Estimates put sea size at 35' from 950 nautical miles from SoCal. But that course will rely on not just diffracted energy, but loss from its angular spread, and also some blocking from Baja. This makes the calculations especially tricky, but this is how things should play out:

Sunday the 27th, by mid afternoon, we should start seeing the peak of Polo's swell hit SoCal, which should linger with higher consistency Monday the 28th. Bear in mind that the swell angle will be a difficult 160°. For breaks that can work that SE angle (not many can, but think of standouts in OC especially), size should run DOH. For breaks with direct southerly exposure that require ≥175°, 2-4' overhead would be my call. Consistency is the other issue as the partially blocked, diffracted, angular spread energy from Polo could be inconsistent at times as it wraps into many spots. However, there is a chance for bigger rogue waves at times as there could be occasional constructive interference, and possible refraction at some spots in OC and North County SD from the San Diego Trough (more on all of that in Wave by Wave).

So while Monday the 28th appears to be the peak day, Polo's swell should hit sometime during the day Sunday the 27th. This swell should linger Tuesday the 29th, at least for the morning, and then back off late in the day, more so Wednesday the 30th. But there are other things to be aware of.

Conditions are highly questionable Sunday into Monday. Strong winds are expected to pick up along the SoCal coast as this trough of low pressure (blue arrow) interacts with Polo (model by NOAA MAG):

Onshores could pick up very early Monday the 28th and become quite strong in the afternoon. There's even a slight chance of precip near the US-MX border sometime between Sunday the 27th and Monday the 28th (but dry elsewhere). These winds will no doubt further increase rip current risk, and possibly add to coastal erosion as well.

Along with swell from Polo, two NW ground swells should also be in the mix by Tuesday the 29th. The first is from Dujuan, which peaked in the Western Pacific a few days ago (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):

Dujuan had 30-35' seas, which from that distance (about 4,200 nautical miles) and course should result in chest to head high sets at west facing breaks by Tuesday the 29th, angled from 300-305° and periods 17 seconds. However, given that distance, sets should be sporadic with fewer than normal waves per set and long lulls between sets; that is, if Dujuan was the only swell in SoCal, which it won't be.

The second NW swell in the mix Tuesday the 29th should be from this recent development across the Aleutians (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):

Staying in high latitudes means we'll get a glancing blow from its angular spread (page 52). But with impressive 30' seas, it works out to chest high waves at west facing breaks, angled from 315° with periods 16 seconds.

The Dujuan and Aleutian swells may not be noticeable though as their size could be similar to Polo's wrap into west facing spots.

Wednesday the 30th should see Polo's swell back off but still stay quite strong in SoCal. Early estimates point to sets head high to slightly overhead at south facing breaks, but I'll confirm that in my next report (currently scheduled for Sunday morning).

Thursday the 1st should see all of these swells back off further with about chest max waves everywhere.

Saturday the 3rd into Sunday the 4th might see another hurricane swell as the 7-day models are aligning on this system (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):

It's early in the game, but that holds potential for DOH surf at south facing breaks. This one needs a lot more monitoring.

Tuesday the 6th could see NW ground swell from this new development near the Aleutians on the 6-day models (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):

So far, that holds potential for chest+ sets at west facing breaks, angled from 305° and periods 16-17 seconds.

Thursday the 8th (building day) into Friday the 9th (peak?) could see SW ground swell from this system east of New Zealand (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):

That's an upgrade from earlier models, which now points to chest+ sets at south facing breaks, angled from 205° and periods 16 seconds. This is on the 5-day outlook so it needs more monitoring.

Looking out further on the long range, models hint at a decent sized NW ground swell around the 9th or 10th, but it's so far out on the extended long range that it's not worth digging into further. I made a note of it and I'll see if anything comes of it over the next few days.

BTW: I archived my latest El Niño discussion about the Kelvin Wave warning for SoCal here, in case you missed it from earlier reports.

In any event, there's a lot to monitor over the next few days, weeks, and months. But as long as I have your support then I can continue to keep an eye on the Pacific to keep you posted. Please remember this report is funded by reader donations and your help is crucial to keep it alive (see why here).

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Here's a brief look at how the next few days are breaking down so far:

Saturday the 26th is expected to run head high at south facing brakes and waist to chest high at west facing spots for the early morning hours. By mid day, size should increase to 3-4' overhead at south facing spots; however, that should be short-lived for just a few hours.

Sunday the 27th should run head high at south facing breaks in the early morning; however, rogue waves are possible from Polo. By mid afternoon (or so), size should increase at south facing breaks, possibly upwards of DOH at breaks able to work a steep SE angle, and a couple feet overhead at other south facing spots.

Monday the 28th should see the bulk of Polo's swell. Breaks that can work a 160° swell angle (not many can, but think of standouts in OC especially), size should run DOH. For breaks with direct southerly exposure that require ≥175°, 2-4' overhead is my call. Swell may be inconsistent at some spots, but dangerous rogue waves are likely at times throughout the day.

Tuesday the 29th should see similar size/conditions for the morning with swell decreasing in the afternoon. West facing breaks, btw, should run upwards of head high from NW ground swells and Polo's wrap.

Wednesday the 30th, so far, looks about chest to head high at south facing spots.

Thursday the 1st, so far, looks smaller, likely chest high at south facing spots.

Friday the 2nd, so far, looks about chest high at south facing breaks.

Saturday the 3rd might see the next hurricane swell fill into SoCal...more on that in my next report.

 

Weather Outlook:
Today (Friday the 25th) a mild ridge of high pressure is over SoCal, which should stay in place Saturday the 26th. A trough of low pressure then pushes toward SoCal Sunday the 27th, driving a low through SoCal Monday the 28th. This should increase the onshore flow; however, it will also stir in plenty of tropical moisture, inhibiting marine layer development. This should result in mostly clear skies most days. Winds are the other concern, which should become quite strong by Monday the 28th (see Wind section below). Once the low passes to the east Tuesday the 29th, a weak offshore flow should develop, keeping skies fairly clear then. Mild high pressure would then build over the region Wednesday the 30th and Thursday the 1st before another trough of low pressure pushes south Friday the 2nd.

Taking all of this into account, here's how I'm calling SoCal beach weather for the next few days:

Saturday the 26th should see an early burn-off followed by high clouds at times and max beach temps in the upper 70s.

Sunday the 27th should see an early burn-off followed by high clouds for a good part of the day, especially south of LA. Max beach temps should reach the mid to upper 70s.

Monday the 28th should see fairly clear skies, at least from marine layer. Tropical clouds are likely, thickest south of LA, and highly scattered north of LA. Some precip is possible near the US-MX border. Max beach temps should reach the mid 70s.

Tuesday the 29th should see little to no AM marine layer, tropical clouds at times, and max beach temps in the mid to upper 70s.

Wednesday the 30th should see AM marine layer, midmorning burn-off, and max beach temps in the upper 70s.

 

Wind Outlook:
Winds at 4:00 PM were onshore 7-13 mph.

Saturday the 26th should see AM light and variables with afternoon onshores 8-12 mph.

Sunday the 27th should see AM light and variables with an onshore element, picking up by noon to 10 mph, and then 15-20 mph by early to mid afternoon.

Monday the 28th should see AM light and variables with an onshore element, picking up midmorning to 10 mph, 15 mph by noon, and 20-25 mph by mid to late afternoon.

Tuesday the 29th should see light AM offshores 5-10 mph, turning onshore by noon, increasing to 15-20 mph mid to late afternoon.

 

Until my next report (Sunday, earlier if things change with Polo), take care, be safe, and smile in the lineup!

—Nathan

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