SoCal Forecast
Updated most Sundays, Tuesdays, and Thursdays

Sunday 5/3/26 6:00 AM
By Nathan Cool

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At a glance:
Today (Sunday the 3rd) we have a light mix of building SW ground swell and minor NW swell. The minor southern hemi peaks Monday the 4th as moderate NW ground swell builds, peaking Tuesday the 5th. Light NW and SW swells are due Saturday the 9th. But a better sized SW ground swell builds Sunday the 10th into Monday the 11th. Moderately sized southern hemi is being watched for the 15th-16th. And more is becoming possible for the 20th. Condition-wise: light precip short term with fair weather to follow; winds trend seasonally onshore; tide levels are fair for daytime sessions; and water temps are fair for the most part.

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Current Conditions:
Early this morning, periods were primarily running 12 seconds from 305° and 12 seconds from 205°, but 17-second periods were showing up from 200°, signaling the southern hemi building today into Monday the 4th.

Most west facing breaks were running waist high with intermittent set waves upwards of chest high. South facing spots were mostly waist.

Buoys in the outer waters were running 5'. Nearshore buoys were about 1.5-2'.

Tide levels are swinging wide from Friday's Full Moon. But typical for this time of year, the widest swings will be mostly outside of daylight hours. Today we have a -0.5' low around 5:30 AM, a 3.5' high around noon, a 2' low around 4:00 PM, and a 5.5' high around 10:30 PM.

Water temps were running 62-64° around most of SD and OC. In LA, water temps were more varied with Zuma 60°, Santa Monica 62-64°, and Hermosa 66°. In VC, USCG reports were once again unavailable. In SB, Stearns Wharf reported 58° this morning and the SB Channel also reported 58° this morning.

Surf Forecast:
Today (Sunday the 3rd) before diving into the forecast, I wanted to quickly announce the release of my new book Wave By Wave : A surfer's guide to forecasting and our connection to the sea. Here's a little bit about it if you'd like to check it out:

And now back to the report...

Today we are seeing SW ground swell slowly build from this storm that peaked southeast of New Zealand about ten days ago (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):

With 25' seas from that position and course, SoCal's south facing breaks should see waist to at times chest high waves Monday the 4th, angled from 205° and periods 15 seconds. This should linger at waist high at south facing spots Tuesday the 5th through Thursday the 7th, however, west facing breaks will likely do better from the next swell north of the equator.

Monday the 4th (building day) into Tuesday the 5th should see NW ground swell from this system that peaked a few days ago south of the Aleutians (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):

With 30' seas on that course, SoCal's west facing breaks can expect sets running chest+ by Tuesday the 5th, building late in the day Monday the 4th. However, the angle on this is just north of SoCal's ≤300° magic mark, coming in from 305°. Breaks with minimal westerly exposure struggle with that, so some west facing spots may top out at waist high while standout west facing spots see chest+ sets. Periods should run 16-17 seconds. This swell should continue Wednesday the 6th and back off to waist high Thursday the 7th.

BTW: Thursday the 7th should also see minor southern hemisphere ground swell, so most breaks are looking at waist high waves Thursday the 7th, and then knee to waist Friday the 8th.

Saturday the 9th is looking at a trio of light to moderate NW and SW swells. The dominant swell right now will likely be wind swell as this pattern develops along the west coast (model by UQAM):

That surface model shows a strong high off the coast of the PNW, which will interact with a strongly opposing low near the CA/NV/AZ tri-point region, shown by the red arrows. A tight pressure gradient should ensue, creating strong winds with the red areas being gusts to 50 mph off the CA/OR border. The brown areas dipping into SoCal's latitude (white box) would be 35 mph gusts. It's a fairly typical springtime wind event for the west coast, which should whip up enough wind swell to put SoCal's west facing breaks into chest high sets Saturday the 9th and Sunday the 10th.

Saturday the 9th into Sunday the 10th, along with NW wind swell, we should also see spotty NW ground swell from this high latitude system coming off Kamchatka (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):

That works out to waist to chest high waves at SoCal's west facing breaks Saturday the 9th into Sunday the 10th, angled from a fairly steep 305° with periods 15-16 seconds. The third element in Saturday the 9th's swell combo should be from a very low latitude storm that was skirting the ice pack around Antarctica, resulting in waist high waves at south facing breaks, angled from 210° and periods 16 seconds. But as all of this comes to a head Sunday the 10th, a better sized southern hemi should start filling in.

Sunday the 10th (building day, with forerunners) into Monday the 11th should see decent sized SW ground swell from this storm that just peaked south of French Polynesia (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):

That's not a great course for SoCal swell but the fetch housed impressive, 35-40' seas, so we'll get a decent glancing blow of energy (AKA angular spread). Running the numbers this morning, this works out to chest high sets at south facing breaks Monday the 11th with swell building with occasional forerunners Sunday the 10th. Swell should be angled from 195-200° with periods 18-19 seconds (forerunners would run up to 20 seconds on Sunday). This swell should continue at chest high Tuesday the 12th, and then drop to about waist to chest Wednesday the 13th, and waist high Thursday the 14th.

Note that minor NW ground swell from Kamchatka is becoming likely for the 12th-13th, helping west facing breaks with occasional waist high waves, angled from 310° and periods 15-16 seconds. Southern hemi though looks dominant with better size and consistency at south facing spots.

Friday the 15th or Saturday the 16th (depending the model) we could see SW ground swell from this system on the 5-day south of Pitcairn (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):

Although that system would have only 25' seas, it'd travel on an ideal course to send swell to SoCal and get rather close (for a southern hemi) at 4,400 nautical miles away. That works out to consistent chest high sets at south facing breaks, angled from 190° and periods 15 seconds. Being on the 5-day outlook, models differ. I'll know more when I work on my next report Tuesday.

Looking out further on SoCal's long range surf horizon, the 6-day models favor a window of surf potential that could result in southern hemi swell around the 20th as this pattern takes shape (model by NOAA MAG):

That model essentially shows the jetstream/storm-track, which has an ideal trough bending north toward SoCal (red arrow). That's a great location for wave-making storms to send swell to SoCal; however, many models show it taking these storms through New Zealand, not to its east. That inland trek would block wave energy coming out of the Southern Ocean. If located to the east in the Tasman Sea, we'd get some swell, but with a lot of energy soaked up by islands to the north. But if this pattern guides storms just to the east of New Zealand, then game on — swell would travel uninterrupted to SoCal. If nothing else, this is a signal of the seasonal transition and there is a lot of storm activity ginning up in the lower latitudes right now.

There's a lot to watch right now across the Pacific. But as long as I have your support then I can continue this report to keep you posted. Please remember this report is funded by reader donations and your help is essential to keep it alive.

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Here's a brief look at how the next few days are breaking down so far:

Monday the 4th looks about waist high at most breaks, but with occasional chest high pluses at standout south facing spots.

Tuesday the 5th should see chest high sets at west facing breaks, although somewhat spotty. South facing breaks look about waist to at times chest high.

Wednesday the 6th looks about waist to chest max at west facing breaks and waist max at south facing spots.

Thursday the 7th looks about waist high everywhere.

Friday the 8th looks about waist max everywhere.

Saturday the 9th, so far, is expected to run chest high at west facing breaks and waist high at south facing spots.

Sunday the 10th, so far, looks about waist to chest high at most breaks; however, southern hemi forerunners are likely.

Monday the 11th, so far, looks about chest high at south facing breaks and waist max at west facing spots.

Tuesday the 12th, so far, looks about chest high at south facing breaks and waist high at west facing spots.

Wednesday the 13th, so far, looks about waist to chest high at south facing breaks and waist high at west facing spots.

Thursday the 14th, so far, looks about waist high at south facing breaks and knee to waist at west facing spots.

Friday the 15th, so far, holds potential for chest high ground swell at south facing breaks...more on that in my next report.

 

Weather Outlook:
Today (Sunday the 3rd) this cut-off low is tapping on SoCal's west entrance, affecting our weather for the next couple days (model by NOAA MAG):

That low is increasing the onshore flow big time today with a robust marine layer and drizzle possible at times. As that low moves into SoCal Monday the 4th, some areas could see light rain off and on Monday the 4th into Tuesday the 5th. Models take the bulk of the precip south of LA, but light rain can't be ruled out along all five coastal counties. Either way, cloudy skies are on tap today through Tuesday with blue-sky breaks hard to come by along the coast. However, that low has a cold upper-level core, which will put the kibosh on any thermal inversion that would normally thicken up the marine layer. So once that low passes Tuesday evening, we should have clearer mornings for a couple days.

High pressure should start to build over the region Wednesday the 6th through Friday the 8th. The cut-off low, however, will meander just to our south. The result should be fair weather with morning marine layer and a moderate increase in beach max temps.

Saturday the 9th into Sunday the 10th will likely see a slight shift in weather across SoCal as this surface pattern takes shape, tied to the wind swell around this time...shown here again to save you from scrolling (model by UQAM):

That's at the surface, showing a strong wind event off the PNW stretching somewhat into SoCal. At the upper levels there'd be a fair amount of wind too, so overall the coming weekend looks like a springtime day in SoCal with cool air and northerly winds. The only real sticking point is the marine layer since models show a thermal inversion forming, but the northerly winds could scour out marine moisture early in the day this coming weekend.

Monday the 11th could see a robust area of high pressure build across the entire western portion of the continental U.S. This would lead to clearer skies, less wind, and warmer temps — if the long range models have it right today.

Taking all of this into account, here's how I'm calling SoCal beach weather for the next few days:

Today (Sunday the 3rd) is looking at a stubborn marine layer with a late burn-off, possibly not until mid afternoon at some beaches. Max beach temps should reach the low to mid 60s.

Monday the 4th looks fairly cloudy with various high- and low-level clouds. Morning drizzle is possible, maybe even a light shower or two south of LA. Max beach temps should hover in the low to mid 60s.

Tuesday the 5th is looking at scattered high- and low-level clouds. Morning drizzle is likely with possible showers at times from LA south. Max beach temps should top out in the low 60s.

Wednesday the 6th should see AM marine layer, but dissipating early morning. Max beach temps should reach the mid to upper 60s.

Thursday the 7th should see little to no AM marine layer. Max beach temps should reach the low 70s.

Friday the 8th should see AM marine layer with a burn-off by noon and max beach temps in the low 70s.

Saturday the 9th, so far, is expected to see AM marine layer with an early to mid AM burn-off and max beach temps in the upper 60s.

 

Wind Outlook:
Winds at 6:00 AM were lightly onshore in most spots 3-7 mph. Onshores should pick up later in the morning and run 15 mph in the afternoon.

Monday the 4th should see early AM onshores to 5 mph, increasing by noon to 15 mph. Afternoon onshores should run 15 mph in most spots, but could reach 20 mph north of LA.

Tuesday the 5th is expected to see early AM onshores to 10 mph, increasing to 15 mph by noon, and then run 15-20 mph in the afternoon from LA south, but 20-25 mph north of LA in the afternoon.

Wednesday the 6th should see AM light and variables with afternoon onshores 10-15 mph.

Thursday the 7th should see AM light and variables with afternoon onshores 10-15 mph.

Friday the 8th, so far, is expected to see AM light and variables with afternoon onshores 8-12 mph.

 

Until my next report (Tuesday), take care, be safe, and smile in the lineup!

—Nathan

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