SoCal Forecast
Updated most Sundays, Tuesdays, and Thursdays
Sunday 4/26/26 6:20 AM
By Nathan Cool
Surf Charts for SoCal
Rincon | Ventura, C-St. | County Line | Malibu | Hermosa | Huntington BeachTrestles | Old Mans | Oceanside | Beacons | Sunset Cliffs
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At a glance:
Today (Sunday the 26th) we have a light mix of NW and SW swells in SoCal. NW ground swell gets a slight uptick Monday the 27th. Minor southern hemi follows. Moderate NW ground swell is due Thursday the 30th. Wind swell may follow. Light southern hemi is due Sunday the 3rd into Monday the 4th. And then decent sized NW ground swell is becoming possible for Tuesday the 5th. Condition-wise: light rain chances in the forecast; winds problematic at times; tide levels are moderate; and water temps are fair.
BTW, just a quick heads-up before getting into the forecast: April donations are still short of the goal needed to sustain this report (more on that here). So if you find this report useful and you want it to continue, now would be a great time to contribute.
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Current Conditions:
Early this morning, periods were primarily running 10 seconds from 320°, 16 seconds from 270-290°, and 12 seconds from 185°.
Most west facing breaks were running waist high with occasional chest high pluses. Direct south facing spots were mostly knee to waist high.
Buoys in the outer waters were running 4'. Nearshore buoys were running 2' (south facing) to 3' (west facing, mostly from wind swell).
Tide levels are fair. Today we have a 4.5' high around 6:30 AM, a 0.1' low around 1:00 PM, and a 5' high around 7:30 PM.
Water temps were running 65° in most of SD and OC, although Huntington Beach reported 60° yesterday. LA was mostly 61-64°. For VC and SB, USCG readings are still not unavailable but Stearns Wharf reported 59° this morning.
Surf Forecast:
Today (Sunday the 26th) is starting off as a small and windy day in the SoCal surf zone, but intermittent NW ground swell should build later today, peaking Monday the 27th from what was Super Typhoon Sinlaku that you might recall from earlier reports (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
That should produce intermittent chest+ waves at SoCal's west facing breaks by Monday the 27th (building today). However, that storm was 4,400 nautical miles from SoCal so swell will be inconsistent with long wait times — few waves per set and long lulls between sets. Swell should be angled from 295° with periods 17 seconds Monday. Some Aleutian swell should also be in the mix Monday the 27th, although that should present as waist high waves in the mix, angled from 310° and periods 14 seconds.
Tuesday the 28th should see this mix of swell back down to about waist high at west facing breaks with occasional, rare, chest high pluses at standout west facing spots. Minor Antarctic swell is also due, helping south facing breaks with waist high waves.
Thursday the 30th should see spotty NW ground swell from this high-latitude system crashing into the Aleutians (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
Running the numbers this morning, with 30-35' seas from the location and course, works out to chest max waves at west facing breaks Thursday the 30th, but with long wait times (few waves per set and long lulls between sets). Swell should be angled from 310° and periods 17 seconds. Distant southern hemi swell from the Tasman Sea is also due Thursday the 30th, which should result in inconsistent waist high waves at south facing breaks, angled from 230° and periods 15 seconds. The NW swell should linger with inconsistent chest max waves at west facing breaks Friday the 1st, and then back off Saturday the 2nd.
Friday the 1st through Sunday the 3rd will likely also have light NW wind swell in the mix, but this has been downgraded from last week's model runs. Instead of what could have been a strong inside-slider wind event, models are now aligned on a minor cut-off low passing through SoCal. It will have more of an effect on weather so I'll break that down in the Weather section below. As for wind swell, we're looking at waist high wind swell waves at west facing breaks Friday the 1st through Sunday the 3rd, with pluses to chest high at times possible over the weekend (2nd-3rd). The Aleutian NW ground swell should be dominant.
Sunday the 3rd (late) into Monday the 4th should see light southern hemisphere ground swell from this storm that recently peaked southeast of New Zealand (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
With 25' seas from that position and course, SoCal's south facing breaks should see waist to at times chest high waves by Monday the 4th, angled from 205° and periods 15 seconds. This should linger at waist high at south facing spots Tuesday the 5th through Thursday the 7th, however, west facing breaks will likely do better from the next swell on my charts this morning.
Tuesday the 5th has a good chance of seeing decent sized NW ground swell from this system that'd break out of the Western Pacific and peak south of the Aleutians (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
That 3-day model shows 30' seas from a fairly ideal position and course for SoCal; however, shortly after, that system should weaken and then skirt to the north. Calculating swell from that scenario works out to at least chest high waves at SoCal's west facing breaks Tuesday the 5th. The high-end calculations come in at just under head high. Swell would be angled from 305°, which is a bit steep, running just above SoCal's magic mark of ≥300°; thus, breaks with minimal westerly exposure would run waist to chest max while standouts see some pluses near head high. Periods would run 16 seconds. Also, the 5-day models show a quick reform of that storm in the Gulf of Alaska, which would provide at least chest high waves with the same ETA. I'll be able to firm this up in my next report (Tuesday).
Saturday the 9th (building day?) into Sunday the 10th (peak?) could see SW ground swell from this system near Zealand on the 3-day models (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
We need storms like that to drift northward to direct swell at SoCal; however, we'd still get a glancing blow of energy. Size right now is coming in at waist high for south facing breaks, angled from 215° and periods 16 seconds. But, any northward nudge and/or upgrade to its seas would result in better sized surf. I'll see how this progresses over the next few days. BTW: Another, similar system is showing up on the 7-day projection, which could bring another round of similar swell Thursday the 14th.
In any event, there's a lot to monitor across the Pacific as both hemispheres are in seasonal transition. But as long as I have your support then I can continue this report to keep you posted. Please remember this report is funded by reader donations and your help is essential right now to keep it alive.
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Here's a brief look at how the next few days are breaking down so far:
Monday the 27th looks about chest+ at west facing breaks but with highly inconsistent sets with few waves per set and long lulls between sets. South facing spots look about waist high.
Tuesday the 28th looks about waist high at most breaks but with occasional chest high pluses at west facing spots.
Wednesday the 29th looks about waist max everywhere.
Thursday the 30th is expected to run chest high at west facing breaks but with few waves per set and long lulls between sets. South facing breaks look about waist high.
Friday the 1st should run chest max at west facing breaks, but with once again highly inconsistent sets. South facing spots look about waist max.
Saturday the 2nd, so far, looks about waist high at west facing breaks and knee to waist at south facing spots.
Sunday the 3rd, so far, looks about waist high at most breaks.
Monday the 4th, so far, looks about waist high at most breaks, but with occasional chest high pluses at standout south facing spots.
Tuesday the 5th, so far, holds potential for at least chest high ground swell at west facing breaks, possibly up to head high at standouts. This needs more monitoring and I'll have an update in my next report (Tuesday).
Weather Outlook:
Today (Sunday the 26th) a weak trough of low pressure (circled in green) is sagging south into SoCal, which we can see from space this morning (image from NOAA GOES):
Spotty moisture is swirling near SoCal and small smatterings of light rain were showing up on Doppler radar, passing through parts of OC and SD early this morning. Dry air (yellow) is mostly south of SoCal, but any rain that does fall should be isolated south of LA — minimal with trace amounts.
An onshore flow will be dominant this week since once the trough passes to the east, a couple cut-off lows are expected to affect SoCal. Here's the first one, which could bring light precip to SoCal Thursday the 30th (model by NOAA MAG):
That's undercutting a large dome of high pressure, leaving that low moisture starved. Rain amounts look about trace to maybe 0.1" max (if that) Thursday the 30th. Being a cut-off low means things could change quickly. But models are fairly well aligned on minimal precip, with most agreeing on a Thursday early morning ETA. That low would quickly exit to the east Friday the 1st. But Saturday the 2nd may see this other cut-off low approach SoCal (model by NOAA MAG):
This time, the approach would be from the north, keeping precip mostly away from SoCal — at least initially. Many models show that low progressing south, bringing light rain into SoCal Monday the 4th or Tuesday the 5th. That might not be the last cut-off low as models favor a couple more nearing SoCal shortly after, and another two weeks from now. I'd take those with a grain of salt for the moment as cut-off lows are notoriously unpredictable that far out.
Another weather feature to note this week is a lack of thermal inversion this week, which is needed for marine layer development. So although there'll be a predominant onshore flow and marine moisture, there won't be much of anything to hold it in place. This should reduce chances for morning low clouds and fog each day this week, at least until near the end of the weekend.
Taking all of this into account, here's how I'm calling SoCal beach weather for the next few days:
Today (Sunday the 26th) may see a quick shower south of LA this morning but skies should be partly-cloudy for the rest of the day with clearest conditions north of LA. Beach max temps should reach the low 60s.
Monday the 27th is expected to see spotty AM marine layer, mostly south of LA, with a quick burn-off. Skies should be partly sunny otherwise. Beach max temps should reach the low 60s.
Tuesday the 28th should see little to no AM marine layer, mostly sunny skies, and max beach temps in the mid 60s.
Wednesday the 29th looks fairly clear with no AM marine layer and max beach temps in the mid to upper 60s.
Thursday the 30th has a slight chance of rain; otherwise, skies would be partly sunny. Beach max temps should reach the mid 60s.
Friday the 1st should see AM marine layer with a mid to late AM burn-off and max beach temps in the mid to upper 60s.
Saturday the 2nd, so far, is expected to see AM marine layer with a midmorning burn-off, followed by high clouds for partly sunny skies, and max beach temps in the mid to upper 60s.
Sunday the 3rd, so far, looks fairly cloudy as the next cut-off low approaches with max beach temps in the mid 60s.
Monday the 4th or Tuesday the 5th could see light rain...I'll have more on that in my next report.
Wind Outlook:
Winds
at 6:00 AM were onshore along most of the SoCal coast 8-12 mph, with some spots reporting stronger gusts. Onshores should reach 15-20 mph by noon and persist through the afternoon, possibly over 20 mph at times, especially from LA north.
Monday the 27th should see AM onshores 3-8 mph, picking up 10-15 mph late morning, and then 15-20 mph onshore in the afternoon.
Tuesday the 28th should see AM light and variables, possibly calm in some spots. Afternoon onshores should top out at 10-15 mph.
Wednesday the 29th should see AM light and variables, possibly calm in some spots. Afternoon onshores should run 8-12 mph.
Thursday the 30th, so far, is expected to see AM light and variables and afternoon onshores 10-15 mph.
Friday the 1st, so far, is expected to see AM light and variables and afternoon onshores to at least 15 mph.
Saturday the 2nd, so far, is expected to see AM light and variables with afternoon onshores to at least 15 mph.
Sunday the 3rd may see onshores pick up early...more on that in my next report.
Until my next report (Tuesday), take care, be safe, and smile in the lineup!
