SoCal Forecast
Updated most Sundays, Tuesdays, and Thursdays
Tuesday 7/7/26 6:15 AM
By Nathan Cool
Surf Charts for SoCal
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At a glance:
Today (Tuesday the 7th) is starting off with light to moderate southern hemisphere ground swell in SoCal but this will build throughout the day and peak over the next couple days. NW wind swell is also on the rise. Minor to moderate southern hemi ground swell is due by Monday the 13th. A light mix of Tasman and Tropical swells is becoming likely for the 16th-17th. And the potential for significant hurricane swell remains on track for the 19th. Condition-wise: marine layer thins but cloudy days lie ahead; tropical precip remains in the forecast; winds lighten up shortly; and water temps are up in many spots but may cool shortly.
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Current Conditions:
Early this morning, periods were primarily running 15 seconds from 200°, although 20-second forerunners (page 43) were coming in from 205-210° signaling our next SW ground swell. NW wind swell was running 6-8 seconds from 300°.
Most south facing breaks were running waist to chest high but size should increase later today. Direct west facing spots were mostly waist to chest high.
Buoys in the outer waters were running 7-9'. Nearshore buoys were running 2-4' with a 50-50 mix of SW ground swell and NW wind swell.
Tide levels are running at moderate levels right now but will swing very wide later this week as we approach a New Moon Tuesday the 14th. Today we have a 1.3' low around 9:00 AM, a 4.8' high around 4:00 PM, and a 1.5' low around 11:00 PM.
Water temps were running 68-71° around most of SD. OC was running 66-69°. LA was mostly 67-70°, although the usually-cooler Zuma reported 65° yesterday. In VC, Channel Islands Harbor reported 65° last night. In SB, Stearns Wharf reported 65° this morning. Note there is a chance for cool-water upwelling over the next couple days (page 148).
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Surf Forecast:
Today (Tuesday the 7th) two swells are filling into SoCal with the first being SW ground swell from this system that peaked about nine days ago near New Zealand (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
That system had moderate loss from its angular spread (page 52), which works out to chest+ swell at south facing breaks by Wednesday the 8th, angled from 210° and periods 19 seconds. Standouts may see some head high pluses out of this, more so Thursday the 9th as an additional southern hemisphere swell will be in the mix, which could create pluses from constructive interference (page 84). This makes Thursday the 9th the day most likely to see occasional head high pluses at south facing spots.
The second swell filling in today that will also peak Wednesday the 8th is NW wind swell from this pattern you might recall from earlier reports (model by UQAM):
A tight north to south gradient has formed between that surface high off the coast and inland low (red arrows). This is creating strong winds in the outer waters that were gusting to near 35 mph west of the SoCal islands early this morning. These winds are affecting sky cover today (see Weather section below), and they could also cause an upwelling Wednesday the 8th or Thursday the 9th (page 148). Wave-wise, the wind swell should run chest high at west facing breaks Wednesday the 8th and Thursday the 9th, angled from the wind-swell-usual ≥300° with periods 7-10 seconds. South facing breaks should do better from the southern hemi swell and have better wave shape too. Some of this wind swell will inevitably wrap into south facing spots but it shouldn't be enough to have a major impact on conditions.
The wind swell should be short-lived, backing down to waist high Friday the 10th. South facing breaks look better at chest high Friday from lingering southern hemisphere ground swell. Saturday the 11th should run chest max at south facing breaks.
Sunday the 12th into Monday the 13th should see light SW ground swell from this system that drifted north off Antarctica, south of Pitcairn a few days ago (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
With just 25' seas that should produce waist to at times chest high waves at south facing breaks Sunday the 12th and Monday the 13th, angled from 185° and periods 15-16 seconds.
Smaller surf is expected Tuesday the 14th and Wednesday the 15th, about knee to waist high at most breaks.
Thursday the 16th should see spotty, intermittent SW ground swell from this storm you might recall from last week's reports that traveled northeast in the Tasman Sea (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
Being 7,400 miles from SoCal means a good deal of energy will be lost from distance decay, along with energy soaked up by numerous islands in the South Pacific on the swell's course to SoCal. This should result in waist to chest high waves at south facing breaks but with very long lulls between sets and very few waves per set. Long wait times should be expected. Swell should be angled from 230° with periods 15 seconds.
Thursday the 16th and/or Friday the 17th may also see light tropical swell in the mix from storm #1 on this 7-day model (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
With 20' seas from that position and course, south facing breaks would see waist to at times chest high waves in the mix, angled from 215° and periods 10-13 seconds. Seeing as though the Tasman swell would be angled somewhat similar, this tropical swell may be hard to notice. Either way, that tropical storm is 7-days out, and storm #2 is something much more noteworthy for SoCal surf.
Sunday the 19th remains on track for potential hurricane swell in SoCal. That would be from storm #2 on that model above, shown here on this 250-hour weather model with impressive wind, travelling up the coast of Baja (model by NOAA MAG):
The only thing that's changed so far is high pressure centered over the American West at 595dm, which is weaker than the 600dm+ high from earlier models. That doesn't really matter so much since it's the high's position that will help determine that hurricane's guidance from the high's clockwise spin. So far that looks on track. Early estimates point to surf running at least a couple feet overhead at south facing breaks that can work a SE angle of around 165-170°. It's still too early though to start working the numbers and this needs more monitoring. But as long as I have your support then I can continue to keep an eye on the Pacific to keep you posted. Please remember this report is funded by reader donations and your help is crucial to keep this report alive (see why here).
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Here's a brief look at how the next few days are breaking down so far:
Wednesday the 8th is expected to run chest+ at south facing spots. West facing breaks should run chest high.
Thursday the 9th looks about chest+ at south facing breaks with occasional head high pluses at standouts. West facing breaks should run chest high.
Friday the 10th looks about chest high at south facing breaks and waist to chest high west facing spots.
Saturday the 11th looks about chest high at south facing spots and waist high at west facing spots.
Sunday the 12th looks about waist to chest at south facing breaks.
Monday the 13th looks about waist to at times chest high at south facing breaks.
Tuesday the 14th looks about waist high at south facing spots.
Wednesday the 15th, so far, looks about waist high at south facing spots.
Thursday the 16th, so far, looks about waist high at south facing spots with rare chest high pluses.
Friday the 17th, so far, looks about waist high at south facing spots with rare chest high pluses.
Saturday the 18th, so far, looks about waist max at south facing spots.
Sunday the 19th holds potential for substantial hurricane swell. Early estimates point to sets running at least a couple feet overhead at south facing breaks but it's too early to call right now.
Weather Outlook:
Today (Tuesday the 7th) moderate high pressure over the 4-Corners is helping to swirl tropical moisture into SoCal while a storm passing through the PNW is setting up a windy pattern along the SoCal coast (bringing the wind swell over the next couple days). The winds are putting the kibosh on marine layer development as the most northern gradients are running -3mb (page 129). Winds will be a bit stronger this afternoon as a result, but winds are focused west of SoCal's islands with much less wind near the beaches. And although a thermal inversion (page 131) is gaining ground and should reach an impressive Δ18°F Thursday the 9th, there just isn't much marine moisture for the inversion to work with.
Tl;DR: marine layer looks thin to nil today through Friday the 10th.
Saturday the 11th should see an influx of tropical clouds as a minor tropical system travels north. This could cover SoCal completely with upper-level tropical clouds Saturday the 11th and Sunday the 12th. Light precip could fall Sunday the 12th and/or Monday the 13th. Models are waffling on the idea of tropical rain, and any amounts at the coast would be light. Today for instance, the GFS shows no rain reaching the coast, but the ECMWF and CMC are in fair agreement on some precip, although spotty, but still reaching the coast.
High pressure then remains well established over the American West Tuesday the 14th onward. Water temps around SoCal are warmer (at least for now) so the inversion should be moderate; thus, we'll likely see many days of typical summertime weather with early AM marine layer and early burn-offs — by the looks of things right now.
Taking all of this into account, here's how I'm calling SoCal beach weather for the next few days:
Today (Tuesday the 7th) has seen an early burn-off already. Max beach temps should reach the low 70s.
Wednesday the 8th should see a thin marine layer with an early burn-off and max beach temps in the low 70s.
Thursday the 9th should see a thin marine layer with an early burn-off and max beach temps in the low 70s.
Friday the 10th should see a bit more of an AM marine layer with burn-off mid to late morning and max beach temps in the low 70s.
Saturday the 11th should see AM marine layer with a midmorning burn-off followed by tropical clouds for much of the day. Beach max temps should reach the low 70s.
Sunday the 12th, so far, is expected to see a hefty tropical cloud deck for a mostly-cloudy day. There is a chance for precip as well. Beach max temps should reach the low 70s.
Wind Outlook:
Winds
at 7:00 AM were calm or very light almost everywhere along the coast. Onshores should pick up to 10 mph by noon and run 15 mph by early to mid afternoon.
Wednesday the 8th should see AM light and variables and afternoon onshores 8-12 mph.
Thursday the 9th should see AM light and variables and afternoon onshores 8-12 mph.
Friday the 10th should see AM light and variables with a southerly element and afternoon onshores from the WSW 8-12 mph.
Saturday the 11th may see light to moderate southerly winds for a good part of the day. I'll have more on the weekend winds in my next report.
Until my next report (Thursday), take care, be safe, and smile in the lineup!
