SoCal Forecast
Updated most Sundays, Tuesdays, and Thursdays
Tuesday 10/13/26 6:00 AM
By Nathan Cool
Surf Charts for SoCal
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At a glance:
Today (Tuesday the 13th) we have a fair amount of SW and NW ground swell in SoCal. SW ground swell is due this weekend. Swell from Typhoon Koguma is due early next week, although we may see much bigger NW wind swell then. NW and SW swells are being watched for late next week. Condition-wise: widespread Santa Ana shortly; the tide is swinging wide; and water temps have cooled a bit.
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Current Conditions:
Early this morning, periods were primarily running 18 seconds from 200°, 11 seconds from 320°, and occasionally 16 seconds from 280°.
Most breaks were running chest to head high with occasional pluses at standouts.
Buoys in the outer waters were running 8'. Nearshore buoys were running 2.6' (south facing) to 3.6' (west facing).
Tidal Advisory: Tide levels are running about 14" above normal as the Marine Heat Wave continues off Baja and SoCal. We're also entering a tidal amplification phase from an 18.6-year lunar nodal cycle, which is creating wide tidal swings with higher than normal tides. While the tide tables account for the lunar nodal cycle, they don't account for the above normal water levels due to thermal expansion from El Niño and the Marine Heat Wave off SoCal; thus, the actual tide levels need another 14" added to them to represent more accurate levels. For instance, we have a near 6' high today around 11:00 AM, which will actually be a 7'+ high tide. This will continue to increase the risk of coastal flooding and beach erosion.
Water temps were running 71-73° around most of SD, OC, and LA. In VC, Channel Islands Harbor reported 69° yesterday. In SB, Stearns Wharf, USCG measurements, and the SB Channel buoy were all offline or unavailable for temperature readings.
Water Contact Advisory: The recent rain, which stayed mostly from LA south, has increased the risk of contamination from runoff in the surf zone. As a reminder, there is a risk of high bacteria levels for at least 72 hours following any measurable rain event (usually 0.1" or more) during which time water contact should be avoided.
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Surf Forecast:
Today (Tuesday the 13th) NW wind swell is fading from the recent trough that's now moving east. We're also seeing spotty NW ground swell from Choi-Wan. And there's a steady flow of southern hemisphere ground swell today from this storm that traveled north off Antarctica about ten days ago (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):
Wednesday the 14th should see chest to head high sets at south facing breaks from the southern hemi but west facing breaks look more along the lines of chest max as wind swell and Choi-Wan fade. The southern hemi should back off to around chest max at south facing spots Thursday the 15th, and then waist to chest Friday the 16th.
Saturday the 17th (building day) into Sunday the 18th (peak) should see SW ground swell from this system that broke off Antarctica about four days ago (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):
With 30-35' seas on that course, south facing breaks should see initially chest high sets with pluses Saturday the 17th, and then chest to at times head high Sunday the 18th. Swell should be angled from 200° and periods 17 seconds.
Monday the 19th, as that southern hemi swell continues, we might see a robust round of NW wind swell as models now favor this deep trough of low pressure pushing into SoCal (model by NOAA MAG):
Early estimates point to at least chest high wind swell at west facing breaks Monday the 19th, and upwards of head high Tuesday the 20th, lingering Wednesday the 21st. This is a departure from model runs a couple days ago, so I'll need a few more days to see how this plays out.
Monday the 19th, wind swell aside, should see NW ground swell from Typhoon Koguma, which is taking this northerly course with decent sized seas (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):
Similar to Choi-Wan, sets should be sporadic from Koguma's distance and course. Size should run chest+ at west facing breaks, angled from 300° and periods 16 seconds. But that's not all.
Monday the 19th (building day) into Tuesday the 20th (peak), should also see SW ground swell from this system that broke off Antarctica a couple days ago (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):
This should produce chest+ sets at south facing breaks by Tuesday the 20th with head high pluses at standouts. Swell should be angled from 190° and periods 16 seconds. This swell should run chest+ at south facing breaks Wednesday the 21st; chest max Thursday the 22nd; and then waist high Friday the 23rd.
Friday the 23rd (building day) into Saturday the 24th (peak) could see moderately sized NW ground swell from this high latitude system on the 7-day outlook (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):
That storm is forecast to whip up 36' seas, but the course is less than ideal with a high degree of angular decay (page 52). So far, this is looking like a chest+ swell for west facing breaks, angled from 310° and periods 18 seconds.
Friday the 23rd should also see light southern hemisphere ground swell in the mix from this low latitude system (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):
We'll get a mere glancing blow with waist high waves at south facing breaks, with chest high pluses at times at standouts. Swell should be angled from 195° and periods 17 seconds.
On the El Niño front, models today show El Niño has warmed slightly to about 2.4°C, which is now tied with the 1997-98 El Niño. However, some models also show El Niño may be reaching its peak (model from NOAA CPC)
The more immediate concern continues to be the Marine Heat Wave (MHW) sitting off Baja and SoCal, which is largely responsible for the higher than normal sea levels in SoCal (model from NOAA Coral Reef Watch):
That marine heat wave, which started to develop in 2025, warmed quite a bit this summer as high pressure cooked SoCal with numerous heatwaves, while northerly winds were lacking to create any cold-water upwelling. As with every El Niño, the Kelvin Waves in this year's El Niño added to this warmth; although, those are getting the spotlight in the press even though they're only part of the story (more on that here).
Sea levels are running about 14" above normal from the Marine Heat Wave. But what's making the sea-level rise more noticeable are higher than normal tides caused by an 18.6-year nodal lunar cycle. This lunar cycle will create higher than normal king tides for a few years, starting now. In fact, this will be quite noticeable this winter when king tides reach upwards of 7.5' around the Christmas holiday. That's the "predicted" height in the tide tables. Add another 18" on top of that from sea-level rise and we have a 9' high tide Christmas Eve and Christmas Day. If a storm and/or swell comes ashore then, there would be potential for storm surge adding another foot for a 10' high tide, which would inevitably cause coastal flooding and further beach erosion.
The Marine Heat Wave will cool (to some degree) from seasonally cooler water this winter. If El Niño also cools as models show today, then we may see some relief from coastal flooding as sea levels recede. Yet it takes a long time for ocean waters to cool, so we should count on coastal flooding events now through the winter (and possibly beyond).
As for swells and rain, El Niño has a 71% batting average over the past 100 years of intensifying both for the winter season. We have seen disappointing El Niño winters, but those are in the minority. High rain amounts and heavy surf are more likely. Preparations should be taken now in advance of this higher probability.
The Pacific is active with a lot to monitor in the coming days, weeks and months. But as long as I have your support then I can continue to monitor the Pacific to keep you posted. Please remember this report is funded by reader donations and your help is crucial to keep it alive (see why here).
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Here's a brief look at how the next few days are breaking down so far:
Wednesday the 14th looks about chest to head high at south facing breaks and waist to chest high at west facing spots.
Thursday the 15th looks about chest high at south facing breaks and waist high at west facing spots.
Friday the 16th looks about waist to chest at south facing breaks, smaller at west facing spots.
Saturday the 17th should start at chest high at south facing breaks with swell building later in the way.
Sunday the 18th looks about chest to head high at south facing spots, smaller at west facing breaks.
Monday the 19th, so far, looks about chest+ at most breaks; however, there is a chance for heavy wind swell.
Tuesday the 20th, so far, looks about chest+ at most breaks with head high pluses at standout south facing spots; however, there is a chance for heavy wind swell.
Wednesday the 21st, so far, looks about chest+ at most breaks; however, there is a chance for heavy wind swell.
Weather Outlook:
Today (Tuesday the 13th) low pressure is moving east with high pressure waiting in the wings, poised to fill into the American West Wednesday the 14th. But by Friday the 16th, an odd Santa Ana pattern sets up over SoCal (model by NOAA MAG):
While the high pressure ridge (blue circle) becomes established at the upper levels of the atmosphere Friday the 16th, the low passing through SoCal today will retrograde back to SoCal, pointed to by that red arrow. Wind blows from high- to low-pressure, creating an offshore flow from this pattern; however, that's just the upper levels of the atmosphere.
At the surface, a strong offshore flow is also expected as an incredibly strong high with freezing air (white arrow, H1050) builds over Colorado and Wyoming, which will interact with relatively lower pressure off the coast (model by UQAM):
SoCal (white box) will sit between these two pressure systems — smackdab in the path of wind passing between them. This is not your traditional Santa Ana (page 116) where the inland high would be in the Great Basin, oftentimes Idaho and Utah. With the high being more to the southeast, coupled with the pattern at the upper levels, more areas of SoCal should see Santa Ana winds than usual. So instead of just VC getting the brunt of the bluster, so should LA, OC, and SD. SB will be less so. I'll break that down in the Wind section below.
The LAX-DAG gradient has been upgraded to a fairly strong Santa Ana at -5.5mb (page 129), on the GFS. The NAM puts it over 6mb. This puts strength in the moderate-to-strong category. Winds aside, compressional heating (page 143) from the offshore winds should warm beaches well into the 80s during the second half of the week as skies stay clear.
The Santa Ana should lose half its strength Saturday the 17th and weaken to near neutral Sunday the 18th. The weather pattern should then shift dramatically as this trough of low pressure dives south into SoCal, shown here again to save you from scrolling (model by NOAA MAG):
Temps would cool from a robust onshore flow and precip chances are popping up in the forecast for the 19th-20th. It's early days, but I'll keep an eye on it.
Taking all of this into account, here's how I'm calling SoCal beach weather for the next few days:
Today (Tuesday the 13th) should see clear skies with max beach temps around 70°.
Wednesday the 14th should see clear skies with max beach temps in the mid 70s.
Thursday the 15th should see clear skies with max beach temps in the low 80s. Santa Ana winds are expected (see Wind section below).
Friday the 16th should see clear skies with max beach temps in the mid 80s. Strong Santa Anas are expected.
Saturday the 17th should see clear skies with max beach temps in the low 80s.
Sunday the 18th should see clear skies with max beach temps in the mid 70s.
Wind Outlook:
Winds
at 6:00 AM were lightly offshore 3-7 mph most everywhere along the coast. Onshores are expected this afternoon 10-15 mph.
Wednesday the 14th should see light AM offshores 4-8 mph and afternoon onshores 8-12 mph.
Thursday the 15th should see early AM offshores to 10 mph, picking up midmorning to 15 mph from the NE and staying offshore for the rest of the day.
Friday the 16th should see NE winds 15 mph in most spots by dawn but up to 20 mph in VC. SB should see weaker offshores 10-15 mph. NE winds will likely increase to 25-30 mph by noon in VC but hover around 15-20 mph in LA, OC, and SD.
Saturday the 17th, so far, is expected to see Santa Ana winds weaken. VC will likely run 10-15 mph offshore in the morning with onshores to 10 mph in the afternoon. LA, OC, and SD should see slightly weaker offshores in the morning, 8-12 mph. SB looks fairly calm.
Until my next report (Thursday), take care, be safe, and smile in the lineup!
