SoCal Forecast
Updated most Sundays, Tuesdays, and Thursdays
Saturday 7/18/26 3:00 PM
By Nathan Cool
Surf Charts for SoCal
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At a glance:
This afternoon (Saturday the 18th) I've updated the report to reflect recent changes in the delayed schedule for Elida. I'll issue my next report Tuesday morning unless things change before then. From a high level, Elida is just one of four tropical cyclones being tracked right now with potential for hurricane swells on the 23rd-24th, 30th, and 8/4. Decent sized southern hemisphere ground swells are in the forecast in between. Condition-wise: marine layer disrupted at times by monsoonal conditions; winds moderate for the most part but influenced shortly by Elida; tide levels are evening out; and water temps are up in many spots.
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Current Conditions:
This afternoon, periods were primarily running 16 seconds from 230° and 10 seconds from 170°.
Most breaks were running waist high with occasional pluses at standout south facing spots.
Buoys in the outer waters were running 5'. Nearshore buoys were running 2.0-2.8'.
Tide levels have relaxed from the recent swing. On Sunday we'll see a 0.5' low around 8:00 AM, a 4.8' high around 2:30 PM, and a 1.8' low around 9:00 AM.
Water temps were running 70-74° around most of SD, OC and LA. In VC, Channel Islands Harbor reported 69° this afternoon. In SB, Stearns Wharf reported 67°.
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Surf Forecast:
This afternoon (Saturday the 18th) Elida appears to be reaching peak intensity. Although seas are measuring just 22' and swell is delayed, the course has greatly improved for SoCal (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
With its angular spread at just 10-20° (page 53), a great deal of Elida's energy is being sent our way. But with periods now just 14 seconds from the storm's smaller seas, the swell is moving slower to SoCal (page 41). Running the numbers this afternoon based on Elida's position and recent course, we should see swell slowly fill in during the day Sunday the 19th, peaking from 10:00 PM Sunday to 9:00 AM Monday in SoCal. South facing breaks should start out in the waist to chest high range Sunday for the dawn patrols, chest high or better in the afternoon, bigger in the evening. Early Monday morning, south facing breaks can expect sets running head high to slightly overhead. Top-end calculations work out to 1-2' overhead, although that is during the peak window that closes around 9:00 AM Monday, with swell slowly fading as the day progresses. Thus, there may be pluses early Monday morning, but most of the day Monday should run head high or so at south facing spots. This swell is angled from 195°, which falls just within the window of the San Diego Trough (page 111), where some spots work refraction with better size. Periods should run 14 seconds, but a mix of shorter periods will be in the mix.
Tuesday the 21st, as Elida's swell lingers to a lesser degree, we should also see southern hemisphere ground swell fill in, peaking Wednesday the 22nd from this system that formed near French Polynesia (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
With 30' seas on that course, south facing breaks are looking at chest high sets with swell angled from 200° and periods 16-17 seconds. So all told, with this southern hemi and fading Elida swell, most south facing breaks are expected to run chest+ Tuesday the 21st and then chest high Wednesday the 22nd.
Thursday the 23rd (building day) into Friday the 24th (peak) might see swell from what could become hurricane Fausto, shown here on the 4-day models (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
That's a terrible course for SoCal swell with a high angular decay. But, with seas easily reaching 30-35' from that distance, size works out to head high to 2' overhead at south facing breaks by Friday the 24th (building Thursday the 23rd). Swell from this storm would be angled from 190° with periods 17 seconds. This swell would likely continue Saturday the 25th with similar size, fading late in the day.
Sunday the 26th, as the potential hurricane starts to wane, we should also see moderate SW ground swell from this system that was hugging the low latitudes this past week (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
That works out to chest high sets for south facing breaks but inconsistent with few waves per set and long lulls between sets. Swell should be angled from 210° and periods 19 seconds. If Fausto comes to fruition then it would have faded to chest high Sunday the 26th too. The mix of hurricane and southern hemi would provide some consistency.
Tuesday the 28th could southern hemisphere ground swell from this system that's about to peak near New Zealand, travelling on a more wave-worthy course than its predecessor (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
That should produce sets running chest to upwards of head high at south facing breaks Tuesday the 28th, angled from 210° and periods 18 seconds. The 4-day models show this storm reforming near French Polynesia, which would help keep chest to head high waves going at south facing breaks Wednesday the 29th. This swell could even continue Thursday the 30th, which is when we might see more hurricane swell.
Thursday the 30th remains on track for potential hurricane swell as models today continue to show this system taking a northerly course, similar to Elida, but with stronger winds and seas (model by NOAA MAG):
This one could be named Genevieve. Although out on the 10-day-plus models, everything is working in its favor as waters remain well above normal from not just El Niño, but the persistent Marine Heat Wave (MHV) off Mexico, Baja, and SoCal (model from NOAA Coral Reef Watch):
There's essentially nothing stopping tropical cyclones from traveling up to our neck of the woods, especially since high pressure centered over the U.S. — spinning clockwise — is guiding tropical activity northward. With warm water in their paths, they have high potential to become swell-makers for SoCal. In fact...
Tuesday 8/4 could see yet another hurricane swell as a cyclone could take that ideal path through warm water as a large high pressure system centered over CA/NV swirls that storm north (model by NOAA MAG):
That's too far out to call today but the pattern is in place, raising the degree of probability. There's a lot to monitor right now, but as long as I have your support then I can continue to keep an eye on the Pacific to keep you posted. Please remember this report is funded by reader donations and your help is essential to keep it alive (see why here).
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Here's a brief look at how the next few days are breaking down so far:
Sunday the 19th is expected to start at waist to chest at south facing spots for the dawn patrols with swell building later in the day.
Monday the 20th should run head high to a couple feet overhead at south facing breaks in the early morning with swell fading later in the day.
Tuesday the 21st looks about chest high at south facing breaks.
Wednesday the 22nd looks about chest high at south facing breaks.
Thursday the 23rd, so far, is expected to see hurricane swell fill in during the day to south facing spots chest high at dawn, then head high late in the day.
Friday the 24th, so far, looks about head high to 2' overhead at south facing spots from hurricane swell.
Saturday the 25th, so far, looks about head high to a foot or two overhead at south facing spots from hurricane swell.
Sunday the 26th, so far, looks about chest to at times head high at south facing breaks.
Monday the 27th, so far, looks about chest high at south facing breaks.
Tuesday the 28th, so far, looks about chest to head high at south facing spots.
Wednesday the 29th, so far, looks about chest to head high at south facing spots.
Thursday the 30th has a chance of seeing the next hurricane swell...more on that in my next report.
Weather Outlook:
Today (Saturday the 18th) SoCal remains under a monsoonal flow as high pressure centered near the 4-Corners swirls tropical moisture into SoCal. The influx of tropical moisture will inhibit marine layer development, making it spotty some days. The other snag right now though is what to expect from Elida as that storm's remnants (red arrow) should become positioned off SoCal (yellow box), shown here for what to expect Sunday the 20th (model by UQAM):
No rain is expected along the coast from Elida, but tropical rain is possible in OC and SD Friday the 24th into Sunday the 25th as more tropical moisture gets drawn into SoCal. The more likely scenario from Elida is that it could influence southerly winds in SoCal by Monday the 20th, but nothing severe (see Wind section below for day to day).
Taking all of this into account, here's how I'm calling SoCal beach weather for the next few days:
Sunday the 19th should see thin AM marine layer with an early burn-off, some tropical clouds, and max beach temps in the low to mid 70s.
Monday the 20th should see little to no AM marine layer, with early burn-offs where marine layer does form. Tropical clouds are expected at times, but skies should remain mostly sunny. Beach max temps should reach the low to mid 70s.
Tuesday the 21st should see little to no AM marine layer, with early burn-offs where marine layer does form. Tropical clouds are expected at times, but skies should remain mostly sunny. Beach max temps should reach the low to mid 70s.
Wednesday the 22nd will likely see marine layer with a burn-off late morning. Beach max temps should reach the mid 70s.
Thursday the 23rd will likely see marine layer with a burn-off late morning. Beach max temps should reach the mid 70s.
Wind Outlook:
Sunday the 19th should see AM light and variables with a southerly element and afternoon onshores (mostly from the WSW) 8-12 mph.
Monday the 20th should see light AM southerlies 2-5 mph, becoming 10-15 mph in the afternoon from the WSW.
Tuesday the 21st should see light AM southerlies 3-7 mph, becoming 15 mph in the afternoon from the WSW.
Until my next report (Tuesday), take care, be safe, and smile in the lineup!
