SoCal Forecast
Updated most Sundays, Tuesdays, and Thursdays

Thursday 10/8/26 6:45 AM
By Nathan Cool

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At a glance:
Today (Thursday the 8th) swell from Rachel is reaching its peak in SoCal. SW ground swell is building today as well, peaking Friday the 9th with lesser NW ground swell. Moderate SW ground swell is due Saturday the 10th. A robust round of wind swell is likely Sunday the 11th. Spotty, yet moderately sized NW ground swell from Choi-Wan is due Monday the 12th. Decent sized SW ground swell is due Tuesday the 13th. NW ground swell is being watched for the 18th. We may also see good sized southern hemi swells around that time. And there's an official update on El Niño today. Condition-wise: rain is likely over the weekend; winds problematic at times; a tidal swing is underway; water temps remain on the warm side; and advisories are in effect.

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Current Conditions:
Early this morning, periods were primarily running 11 seconds from 180°. Forerunners from incoming southern hemi were about 18 seconds from 210°. And lesser NW wind swell was running 10 seconds from 315°.

Most south facing breaks were running chest to head high with pluses at standouts able to work refraction from the San Diego Trough (page 111).

Buoys in the outer waters were running 6'. Nearshore buoys were running 2.5-3'.

Tide levels are swinging wider as we approach a New Moon Saturday the 10th. Today we have a 5.5' high around 8:30 AM, a 0.5' low around 2:30 PM, and a 5.5' high around 8:30 PM. Note that sea levels are running about 1' higher than normal from thermal expansion caused by El Niño and the marine heat wave off SoCal (see my earlier Kelvin Wave discussion here).

Water temps were running 71-74° around most of SD and OC. LA was running 72-75° in most spots. In VC, Channel Islands Harbor reported 72° last night. In SB, Stearns Wharf reported 70° this morning.

Hazard Warnings: Rachel's swell has increased the risk of rip currents and there's a chance of coastal flooding from the tidal swing. The NWS has issued warnings as well. You can see the latest warnings and advisories for SB, VC, and LA here and OC and SD here. Caution is advised.

Water Contact Advisory: Rain is becoming likely over the weekend (see Weather section below). This will increase the risk of contamination from runoff in the surf zone. As a reminder, there is a risk of high bacteria levels for at least 72 hours following any measurable rain event (usually 0.1" or more) during which time water contact should be avoided.

Surf Forecast:
Today (Thursday the 8th) Rachel's swell is nearing its peak in SoCal as the waves we're seeing today are from when this storm entered our ideal swell window a couple days ago (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):

Rachel is still sending us swell today, which should arrive Friday the 9th. On its own, that would keep size in the chest to head high range at south facing breaks Friday, angled Friday from 200° with periods around 11 seconds. But Rachel is taking an interesting turn — literally (model from NOAA NHC):

Rachel is about to turn back toward land, likely making landfall across northern Baja. Her winds would run about 45 mph then with her swell weakening along the way. This will have a major impact on weather and winds for SoCal, which I'll get to in the Weather section below. As for swell, Rachel will continue to bring waves to SoCal Friday the 9th, and other swells will come into the mix.

Today, along with Rachel's swell, we're also seeing building SW ground swell that'll peak Friday the 9th from this system that was near New Zealand about ten days ago (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):

That should add chest high sets to south facing breaks Friday the 9th, angled from 210° with periods 16 seconds. So with Rachel and this southern hemi, south facing breaks should see slower breaking waves from Rachel in the chest to head high range (11 seconds), with faster-moving southern hemi sets in the chest high range (16 seconds). But that's not all.

Friday the 9th, along with Rachel and the New Zealand swell, we'll also see spotty, intermittent NW ground swell from this system circled in white that recently smashed into the Aleutian Chain (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):

That Aleutian swell wasn't positioned ideally for SoCal swell, but it should result in waist to chest high waves at west facing breaks Friday the 9th, angled from 310° and periods 15 seconds. Once again though, South facing breaks will do better at chest to head high from the Rachel/Southern-Hemi mix.

Saturday the 10th should see the southerly swells hover around chest high at south facing breaks as SW ground swell fills in from this deep low latitude storm that peaked about a week ago (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):

Although housing 40' seas this morning, it moved on a direct easterly course, sending only a fraction of swell to SoCal. Saturday the 10th should run chest high at south facing breaks from the previous swells (waist to chest at west facing spots). But then Sunday the 11th would run chest high with occasional pluses at south facing breaks with swell angled from 200° and periods 17-19 seconds. However, there's a snag for Sunday.

Sunday the 11th will likely see a mix of NW and SW wind swells with questionable conditions from this weather pattern that's taking shape (model by NOAA MAG):

The red arrow points to a combined low of Rachel's remnants and another cut-off low merging with it. The green arrow shows another low diving south toward SoCal. And the blue arrow is pointing to Simon. Simon is a non-starter for swell as it will likely run into the Sea of Cortez and not enter the SoCal swell window. But Rachel and the northern low spell trouble. Even though Rachel is expected to make landfall across northern Baja, the northern low would interact with Rachel, kicking up strong winds and subsequent wind swell. Rain is another issue I'll get to in the Weather section below. As it stands right now, Rachel would kick up 45 mph winds in the waters near the US/MX border and there'd be 35 mph winds in the waters farther north. This would kick up head high wind swell into many of SoCal's beaches Sunday the 11th. Conditions are highly questionable for Sunday, and hazards are a concern.

Monday the 12th should see the wind swell back down as moderate southern hemi continues and intermittent NW ground swell comes ashore from Choi-Wan (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):

Choi-Wan was whipping up 40-50' seas and got caught up in the North Pacific Gyre (page 146). This is common with WestPac typhoons, although Choi-Wan's northeasterly course means we'll see a high degree of angular spread decay (page 52). This and its distance of 4,500 nautical miles from SoCal means swell will be highly intermittent with few waves per set and long lulls between sets. As for size and such, west facing breaks are looking at sporadic chest to head high waves from Choi-Wan, angled from 300° and periods 21 seconds. This will make Monday the 12th and Tuesday the 13th tricky days as Choi-Wan should add surprise outsiders, interspersed in the relatively smaller surf at west facing spots.

Tuesday the 13th should see SW ground swell from this storm that traveled north off Antarctica a few days ago (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):

That should produce chest+ sets at south facing breaks Tuesday the 13th and Wednesday the 14th; chest max Thursday the 15th; waist to chest Friday the 16th; and waist high Saturday the 17th. Swell should be angled from 205° with periods 16 seconds.

Sunday the 18th is looking at a combo of NW and SW ground swells. The NW swell is the lesser energy from this storm on the 6-day models near the Aleutians (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):

That would produce chest high sets at west facing spots, angled from 305-310° and periods 15 seconds. But the primary swell would be from two southern hemisphere storms, the first of which should build late Saturday the 17th, peaking Sunday the 18th from this system breaking off Antarctica (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):

With 30-35' seas on that course, south facing breaks should see chest+ sets by Sunday the 18th, angled from 200° and periods 17 seconds. Some head high pluses are possible, but that would be more common Monday the 19th from this system on the 3-day outlook (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):

With seas easily 35' on that course, south facing breaks would be looking at head high sets Monday the 19th, angled from 190° and periods 18 seconds. There are still a few more days to go on these but I'll firm them up in my next report.

Looking out on the longer range, NOAA issued their official El Niño forecast today, which remains on track for a "very strong" El Niño, but with other variables to take into account (image from NOAA CPC):

That forecast model uses what's known as the RONI index to measure El Niño strength. El Niños of the past used a part of El Niño's warm waters known as the 3.4 zone, which has been slightly different from the RONI. We can see how these sea surface temperature anomalies stack up right now (model from NOAA Coral Reef Watch):

Currently, the 3.4 zone is measuring 2.1°C above normal, and the newer, RONI forecast mean is calling for a 2.6-2.7°C when El Niño peaks. Temps in the 3.4 zone did increase over the past couple weeks, so it is becoming likely that we'll see a strong El Niño "signal", measuring at historic levels. By comparison, the El Niño of 2015-16 measured 2.6°C, and the 1997-98 Niño was 2.4°C. Yet as you might recall, even though the 2015-16 El Niño was stronger than 1997-98, we got below average rainfall in 2015-16. There are reasons for this that I talk about in Surf, Flood, Fire & Mud. But another thing is how vastly different water temps are across the entire Pacific now, including the marine heat waves (MHW) pointed to in the SST image above.

Also note that El Niño may already be nearing its peak right now (OND in that graph above, for October, November, December). El Niño may then back off quite a bit as we enter our usually-wetter months of January and February (DJF and JFM). So while El Niño would be very strong, it might not be long-lasting. Still, there are a few important points in the forecast.

First, any strong El Niño signal needs to be taken seriously. Although these measurements can't provide assuredness, they give us insight to prepare.

Second, an issue of concern right now is that sea levels are currently a foot above normal from thermal expansion caused primarily from the marine heat wave off SoCal. So when we see king tides this winter, a 7' high tide would equate to an 8' high tide. If a storm comes ashore around that time and adds a foot of storm surge, then we're looking at a 9' high tide. This greatly increases the risk of coastal flooding and beach erosion this winter during high tide times.

A third point is what to expect in the way of waves. The strong yet rain-lacking 2015-16 El Niño had epic sized swells, including one December 7, 2015 that crashed 25' breakers into some SoCal spots. But there is something even more important I'd like to stress with this developing El Niño.

Point #4 is the most concerning: It only takes a single storm with the right setup to cause long-lasting, devastating effects. We can't let the potential infrequency of winter storms (a low-end probability) distract from the fact that a single event could wreck a coastline or take lives. So even if things start out relatively calm as the winter gets underway, the forecast is not a crying-wolf kind of thing — one bite is all it takes to change things forever.

In any case, there's a lot to monitor in the coming days, weeks and months. But I need your support to continue to do so. Please remember this report is funded by reader donations and your help is vital to keep it alive (see why here).

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Here's a brief look at how the next few days are breaking down so far:

Friday the 9th looks about chest to head high at south facing breaks and waist to chest at west facing spots.

Saturday the 10th looks about chest high at south facing spots and waist to chest at west facing spots.

Sunday the 11th will likely see strong wind swell at most breaks in the chest to head high range. Background ground swell should put chest high sets into most breaks as well.

Monday the 12th may see wind swell linger to some degree (I'll confirm that in my next report). Otherwise, it looks about chest high at south facing breaks. West facing breaks are looking at sporadic sets running chest to head high.

Tuesday the 13th looks about chest+ at south facing breaks and intermittently chest to head high at west facing spots.

Wednesday the 14th looks about chest+ at south facing breaks and waist to chest high at west facing spots.

Thursday the 15th, so far, looks about chest high at south facing breaks and waist high at west facing spots.

Friday the 16th, so far, looks about waist to chest at south facing breaks, smaller at west facing spots.

Saturday the 17th, so far, looks about waist to chest at most breaks.

Sunday the 18th, so far, looks about chest+ at south facing spots and chest high at west facing breaks.

Monday the 19th, so far, looks about head high at south facing spots.

 

Weather Outlook:
Today (Thursday the 8th) high pressure is weakening and will weaken further Friday into Saturday, allowing the return of a cooler onshore flow with morning marine layer. The weather headline today though is rain and winds from this pattern that's starting to take shape, shown here again to save you from scrolling (model by NOAA MAG):

Simon is the blue arrow, which is a non-factor. But Rachel (red arrow) is making an approach toward SoCal while a northern low (green arrow) pushes south. That's the GFS model, which has been highly accurate so far this year; however, the official NHC forecast track for Rachel is a tad farther south, which jives with other models like the ECMWF. Comparing the two, we see two different rain scenarios for SoCal (model by UQAM):

The red areas are about 1.5-2.0", the green areas about 0.25-0.5", and blue 0.1-0.25". If the GFS has it right, then more parts of SoCal will see rain than the ECMWF shows. But that's a question mark on amounts. Timing is another.

Some models show rain arriving as early as Saturday afternoon, while the GFS leans heavily to Sunday the 11th, starting pre dawn. After that, there is a chance for wrap-around moisture as the northern low dives farther south with light showers Monday the 12th and possibly Tuesday the 13th.

By Wednesday the 14th the lows should move east, but we may not see much in the way of high pressure take their place. Instead, many models hint at a Canadian low taking a southwest dive toward SoCal, which could kick up an inside-slider wind event by the end of next week page 121). That needs more monitoring.

Taking all of this into account, here's how I'm calling SoCal beach weather for the next few days:

Today (Thursday the 8th) should see a burn-off early morning and max beach temps in the upper 70s.

Friday the 9th should see AM marine layer with a burn-off mid to late morning and max beach temps in the mid to upper 70s.

Saturday the 10th should be cloudy with max beach temps in the low to mid 70s. Rain is possible by the evening.

Sunday the 11th should see rain. Max beach temps should reach the low 70s.

Monday the 12th could see rain. Max beach temps should reach the upper 60s to low 70s.

 

Wind Outlook:
Winds at 7:00 AM were calm most everywhere along the coast. Afternoon onshores should run 8-12 mph.

Friday the 9th will likely see AM light and variables with afternoon onshores to 15 mph.

Saturday the 10th should see early AM onshores 4-8 mph and afternoon onshores to at least 15 mph.

Sunday the 11th could be a blown-out day. Onshores around dawn should run 10 mph, then 15 mph midmorning, and 20-25 mph in the afternoon with gusts over 30 mph.

Monday the 12th, so far, is looking at AM southerlies to 10 mph and afternoon southerlies 15-20 mph.

 

Until my next report (Sunday), take care, be safe, and smile in the lineup!

—Nathan

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