SoCal Forecast
Updated most Sundays, Tuesdays, and Thursdays
Sunday 5/17/26 6:10 AM
By Nathan Cool
Surf Charts for SoCal
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At a glance:
Today (Sunday the 17th) we have substantial NW wind swell in SoCal, which will linger into Monday. Light to moderate NW ground swell is due by Wednesday the 20th. Moderately sized SW ground swell is due Monday the 25th. And a bigger SW ground swell is being watched for the 31st. Condition-wise: fair weather with clear skies some days; winds shift over the next 24 hours; the tide is swinging wide; water temps are holding steady but could drop shortly; and advisories are in effect.
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Current Conditions:
Early this morning, periods were primarily running a wide array of 8-14 seconds from 270-320°.
Most west facing breaks were running head high with pluses at standouts. Direct south facing spots can expect at least chest high wrap.
Buoys in the outer waters were running 15-18'. Nearshore buoys were running 2.5' (south facing) to 4.5' (west facing).
Tide levels are swinging wide from Saturday's New Moon; but typical for this time of year, the widest swings will be mostly outside of daylight hours. Today we have a -2' low around 5:00 AM, a 4' high around 11:00 AM, a 2' low around 4:00 PM, and a 7' high around 10:00 PM.
Water temps were holding steady but could cool Monday or Tuesday from upwelling. Strong winds in the outer waters have dropped water temps by almost 7° as winds increased in earnest over the past 24 hours, gusting over 40 mph near the Channel Islands this morning. Currently nearshore, most of SD was running 64-67°. OC was mostly 61-63°. LA was mostly 61-63°. In VC, Channel Islands Harbor reported 59° last night. In SB, Stearns Wharf reported 62° this morning.
Hazardous Condition Warnings: Heavy wind swell at the coast and strong winds in the outer waters are creating a number of hazards at the beaches, in the surf zone, and for mariners. Rip current risk is highly elevated and mariners will encounter strong gales. The NWS has issued warnings and advisories as well for SB, VC, and LA here, and OC and SD here.
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Surf Forecast:
Today (Sunday the 17th) NW wind swell is reaching its peak today from this windy pattern you might recall from last week's reports (model by UQAM):
Winds should weaken Monday the 18th, but wind swell should still run upwards of head high at many west facing breaks in the early morning, fading later in the day.
Tuesday the 19th, as the wind swell backs off, we should see light to moderate NW ground swell fill in, peaking Wednesday the 20th from this system that peaked a couple days ago near the Aleutians (model from NOAA OPC):
With 25' seas from that location, SoCal's west facing breaks should run waist to chest Tuesday the 19th (building day) and then chest high Wednesday the 20th. Swell should be angled from 300° and periods 14 seconds. As this fades to waist high Thursday the 21st, minor southern hemisphere ground swell should come ashore to help south facing breaks with waist high waves.
Smaller surf is expected Friday the 22nd and Saturday the 23rd, knee to waist at most breaks.
Sunday the 24th is a turning point for southern hemisphere ground swell from a series of small-scaled storms being directed north near New Zealand from this trough of low pressure that's been bulging the jetstream northward (model by NOAA MAG):
Sunday the 24th should see the initial warm-up round with just waist high waves at south facing breaks. Monday the 25th should see an increase to chest high from a better-sized storm that peaked yesterday. This and other swells in that trough should keep chest high waves at south facing breaks Tuesday the 26th and Wednesday the 27th, dropping to waist high Thursday the 28th through Saturday the 30th. Swell should be angled from about 200° and periods 15 seconds most days.
Note there is a slight chance of seeing an increase in NW wind swell Wednesday the 27th into Thursday the 28th, but models are too far apart on either a trough or cut-off low that could increase winds near SoCal. I put a yellow pin in my charts for now and I'll see how it goes over the next few days.
Sunday the 31st (building day with forerunners) into Monday the 1st (peak) could see better sized, longer-period SW ground swell from this robust fetch on the 7-day models (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
That beautiful purple blob represents 40' seas, but its course is just so-so for SoCal, resulting in a fair amount of angular spread (page 52 in Wave by Wave). Running the numbers this morning works out to head high sets at south facing breaks, angled from 200° and periods 19 seconds. Although this is on the 7-day outlook, all models are in agreement — so far. I'll be watching this one closely over the next few days.
Looking out on the longer range, in case you missed it from my last report, there was an update this past Thursday on El Niño when NOAA issued their official, monthly El Niño report. The more salient issue right now is one of NOAA's well-trusted forecast models — the NCEP Coupled Forecast System (CFSv2) — showing potential for a "very strong" El Niño by the winter (model from NOAA CPC)
The thick dashed line shows the model mean, topping out slightly above 2.5°C anomalous for the winter (SON = September October November, OND = October November December, etc.). By comparison, the El Niño of 2015-16 measured 2.6°C, and the 1997-98 was 2.4°C. Earlier model runs pointed to this year's El Niño being 3°C, but they're now leaning toward 2.7°C. It's enough to fuel recent, doom-and-gloom headline hype, but there is a great deal of uncertainty when taking all things into account (model from NOAA CPC):
As it stands right now, there is a 37% chance for a very strong El Niño, and a 30% chance for a strong El Niño, meaning there's 33% chance for a weak El Niño this winter. Strong-plus is the most likely, but this doesn't necessarily guarantee catastrophic weather or high surf. In fact, something I show in Surf, Flood, Fire & Mud is that it's often after a strong El Niño that we get the highest rain amounts in California. So far though, we are looking at potential for heavy and more frequent NW swells this winter, preceded by potentially more tropical storm/swell activity this summer since we also have a Marine Heat Wave (MHW) near SoCal (image from NOAA PSL):
Water temps are warmer than normal from the tropics north into SoCal, which, combined with warming from the developing El Niño could create ideal conditions for tropical cyclones this summer to track northward, sending more of their swell to SoCal. Questions remain as the totality of Pacific warming events is uncharted forecast territory. So there's a lot to monitor concerning waves and weather for SoCal in the coming weeks and months. But as long as I have your support then I can continue to keep an eye on the Pacific to keep you posted. Please remember this report is funded by reader donations and your help is essential to keep it alive.
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Here's a brief look at how the next few days are breaking down so far:
Monday the 18th looks about chest to head high at west facing breaks from wind swell. Conditions are questionable with high hazard risk.
Tuesday the 19th looks about chest max at west facing breaks and waist max at south facing spots.
Wednesday the 20th looks about chest high at west facing breaks and waist high at south facing spots.
Thursday the 21st looks about waist max at most breaks.
Friday the 22nd looks about waist max everywhere.
Saturday the 23rd looks about knee to waist everywhere.
Sunday the 24th looks about waist high at south facing breaks.
Monday the 25th, so far, looks about chest high at south facing breaks.
Tuesday the 26th, so far, looks about chest high at south facing spots.
Wednesday the 27th, so far, looks about chest high at south facing spots. There is a chance for an increase in NW wind swell.
Weather Outlook:
Today (Sunday the 17th) morning May Gray is established where winds were weakest. Strong NW winds were gusting over 40 mph near the Channel Islands but only about 15 mph in the outer waters off OC and SD. This is helping to clear out marine layer from LA north, but a thicker deck is lingering south of LA; in fact, SD and maybe even OC could see drizzle early this morning. But this all changes tomorrow.
On Monday the 18th, the flow should turn slightly offshore for a couple days as low pressure moves east. It's not a real Santa Ana with weak offshore gradients around 2mb (on a scale of 1-10). It would though be enough offshore push to keep skies fairly clear for a couple days. Marine layer should return for early morning sessions later in the week as weak to moderate high pressure builds into the American West and the thermal inversion becomes reestablished with warmer air in the upper atmosphere (page 131).
We may then see a slight increase in onshore flow over the holiday weekend as a weak trough pushes ever so slightly south toward SoCal. Nothing major is expected from that. But models become more bullish with either a hefty trough or cut-off low by the 27th.
Taking all of this into account, here's how I'm calling SoCal beach weather for the next few days:
Today (Sunday the 17th) should see clearing mid morning from LA north but with marine layer lingering in OC and SD until early afternoon. Max beach temps should reach the mid 60s.
Monday the 18th should see early AM marine layer, clearing north of LA very early, lingering farther south until mid morning, but with quick clearing and beach max temps in the upper 60s.
Tuesday the 19th looks clear with little to no AM marine layer. Beach max temps should reach the upper 60s.
Wednesday the 20th looks clear with beach max temps in the upper 60s.
Thursday the 21st should see a thin marine layer with an early burn-off and max beach temps in the upper 60s.
Friday the 22nd should see AM marine layer, midmorning burn-off, and max beach temps in the upper 60s.
Saturday the 23rd, so far, is expected to see AM marine layer, midmorning burn-off, and max beach temps in the mid to upper 60s.
Wind Outlook:
Winds
at 6:00 AM were light and variable most everywhere with a southerly element in many spots; however, in SB county, winds were blowing over 20 mph from Pt. Conception to Refugio, gusting over 40 mph near Gaviota. Farther east (and south) from Isla Vista through the rest of SoCal, winds were much calmer as the winds are focused mostly across the outer waters, not through the SoCal bight. Onshores are expected this afternoon 15-20 mph north of LA, stronger in the wind-prone areas of SB county. Winds should remain light south of LA this afternoon, 10-15 mph.
Monday the 18th should see AM light and variables with a slight offshore element and afternoon onshores 10-15 mph.
Tuesday the 19th should see AM light and variables with a slight offshore element and afternoon onshores 8-12 mph.
Wednesday the 20th should see AM light and variables with a slight offshore element and afternoon onshores 8-12 mph.
Until my next report (Tuesday), take care, be safe, and smile in the lineup!
