SoCal Forecast
Updated most Sundays, Tuesdays, and Thursdays

Thursday 5/28/26 6:25 AM
By Nathan Cool

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At a glance:
Today (Thursday the 28th) we have a fair amount of NW wind swell in SoCal with fading SW ground swell. NW ground swell builds later today, peaking Friday the 29th. Light to moderate NW wind swell gets a short-lived boost Sunday the 31st before a decent sized southern hemisphere ground swell fills into SoCal, peaking early next week. A good-sized SW ground swell is due during the second half of next week. Another decently sized southern hemisphere ground swell is being watched for the 9th-10th. And yet another southern hemi is being tracked for the 12th. Longer range models are starting to align on potential hurricane swell by the 14th. Condition-wise: light precip chances for the short term with clearer weather ahead; winds trend onshore; daytime tide levels are moderate; and water temps are fair.

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Current Conditions:
Early this morning, periods were primarily running 10-12 seconds from 315° and 14 seconds from 200°.

Most west facing spots were running chest high with occasional pluses at standouts. Direct south facing spots were mostly waist high, with better size at SW exposed spots.

Buoys in the outer waters were running 8-10'. Nearshore buoys were running 2' (south facing) to 3.3' (west facing).

Tide levels are moderate for daytime sessions right now. There will be a Full Moon Sunday the 31st, but typical for this time of year the widest swings will be mostly outside of daylight hours. However, there will be negative lows for the dawn patrols and early AM sessions next week. Today we had a -0.2' low around 3:00 AM. We'll see a 3.5' high around 9:00 AM, a 2' low around 2:00 PM, and then a near 6' high around 8:00 PM.

Water temps were running 64-66° in most of SD. OC was about 60-63°. LA was mostly 61-64°. In VC, Channel Islands Harbor reported 62° last night. In SB, Stearns Wharf reported 56° this morning. Note that we are seeing some upwelling (page 148) from the recent outer water winds, and more wind is on the way. This isn't having much impact on SoCal water temps at the beaches, although water temps are lower this morning in SB. Water temps might cool a bit more this weekend.

Surf Forecast:
Today (Thursday the 28th) we're seeing NW wind swell from a cut-off low that's been pushing south to SoCal, which we can see from space this morning (image from NOAA GOES):

That counterclockwise-spinning low is making its entrance into SoCal, which could bring light precip to parts of SoCal later today into tonight (see Weather section below). This was responsible for winds reaching 35 kts off the Central Coast Tuesday, stirring up wind swell fetch shortly after. Winds have settled down since this then, so this particular round of wind swell should be short-lived, peaking in SoCal today. We also have remnant southern hemi from the southern hemisphere ground swell that was sent to SoCal more two weeks ago, which peaked in SoCal Tuesday. Meanwhile, a NW ground swell is pinging the northern buoys, signaling the next swell for SoCal.

Friday the 29th, as wind swell and southern hemi decline, we should see NW ground swell from this system that traveled from the Western Pacific up toward the Aleutian Chain, peaking with 35' seas a few days ago (model from NOAA OPC):

Some of that should reach SoCal later today, but most of the swell will arrive Friday the 29th. As you might recall from earlier reports, that storm didn't provide the best course for a NorthPac swell in SoCal, but there was enough angular spread from those hefty seas to produce chest+ sets at west facing breaks Friday the 29th (page 52). Since we're getting just a glancing blow of energy, sets will likely be inconsistent with few waves per set and long lulls between sets. Swell should be angled from 310° with periods 18 seconds. This ground swell should linger Saturday the 30th before passing the torch to two other swells.

Sunday the 31st should see a southern hemi swell fill in — and I'll get to that next. But first, Sunday should see NW wind swell from an upper level trough, but more significantly from a tight pressure gradient between a strong surface high and inland low pointed to by the white arrows (model by UQAM):

With a Δ23 hPa pressure difference at the surface, winds should gust to around 40 mph (red areas) west of the Channel Islands. Most of this will stay west of the islands with the bulk of the swell skirting past SoCal; however, some energy will diffract into the SoCal bight (page 77). This works out to chest high wind swell at SoCal's west facing breaks Sunday the 31st, with maybe some pluses from LA north where winds — and subsequent wind swell — will be greatest. This wind swell shouldn't last long, backing down before our next swell peaks in SoCal.

Sunday the 31st, as the wind swell reaches its peak in SoCal, we should see southern hemisphere ground swell fill in late afternoon, along with daytime forerunners ahead of this decently sized southern hemisphere ground swell that peaked near New Zealand about a week ago (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):

Models estimated that seas reached 38', which on that course works out to head high sets at south facing breaks Monday the 1st, building during the day Sunday the 31s. Swell should be angled from 210° and periods 19 seconds. Monday the 1st though may see spotty sets as this swell fills in, so many sets may top out initially at chest high at south facing spots Monday. This swell should be more consistent Tuesday the 2nd with head high sets, and then dip to chest+ Wednesday the 3rd. Swell should be angled from 210° with periods initially 19 seconds.

Thursday the 4th (building day with forerunners) into Friday the 5th is when our next SW swell is due. At first, Thursday the 4th should start out with swell from this system (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):

While that should start Thursday the 4th with chest high sets at south facing breaks for the dawn patrols, swell from a second, bigger system should produce better size rather quickly (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):

Forerunners from that swell should fill in throughout the morning Thursday the 4th. Size should then increase later in the day, reaching its peak Friday the 5th with sets running head high at south facing breaks. Swell should be angled from 210° and periods 18-19 seconds. Head high sets should continue at south facing breaks Saturday the 6th; then chest to head high Sunday the 7th; and chest max Monday the 8th.

Tuesday the 9th (building day) into Wednesday the 10th (peak) could see good sized southern hemisphere ground swell from this system on the 5-day models breaking off Antarctica (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):

Another system preceding it, hugging the icepack, would arrive around the same time with shorter periods, but the system above would produce the bulk of the swell in SoCal by Wednesday the 10th. Running the preliminary numbers today works out to chest to head high sets at south facing breaks by Wednesday the 10th, angled from 195° and periods 18 seconds. This is on the 5-day outlook but I should be able to narrow it down to high confidence in my next report (Sunday).

Friday the 12th could see the next southern hemi swell from this system on the 8-day models that'd travel on a better course for SoCal swell (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):

So far, that looks like a solid head high swell for SoCal Friday the 12th, angled from 190° and periods 19 seconds initially. This swell would likely continue Saturday the 13th and linger to a lesser degree Sunday the 14th. Being on the 8-day projection, models aren't aligned so this needs more monitoring. Also, this might not be the only swell in SoCal that weekend.

The weekend of the 13th-14th continues to hold potential for hurricane swell as the extended long range ensemble models continue to show not only tropical cyclone formation, but also an ideal course for SoCal swell (model by NOAA MAG):

The course (white arrow) for those two circled storms is all but assured as water temps are warmer than normal in that region from El Niño and this year's marine heat wave (MHW) near SoCal (model from NOAA OSPO):

While the ensembles are two weeks out on this, the deterministic models are starting to show tropical cyclones on their 10-day projections. A yellow pin in this morning's charts is warranted. But that's not all.

Extended long range models show a fairly active southern hemisphere with seasonal swell potential, along with medium to high probability for more tropical storm formation in the Eastern Pacific. On top of that, typhoon activity is becoming active with Jangmi soon to be a strong cyclone that could retrograde in the NorthPac Gyre (page 145), which can sometimes result in NW swell for SoCal. So there is definitely a lot going on right now across the Pacific for swell potential in SoCal that needs close monitoring. But as long as I have your support then I can continue to track these wave-making storms and keep you posted. Please remember this report is funded by reader donations and your help is crucial right now to keep this report alive (see why here).

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Here's a brief look at how the next few days are breaking down so far:

Friday the 29th is expected to run chest+ at west facing breaks from ground swell, but with inconsistent sets with fewer than normal waves per set and long lulls between sets. South facing breaks look about waist high.

Saturday the 30th looks about chest max at west facing breaks and waist high at south facing spots.

Sunday the 31st should see wind swell running chest high at west facing breaks. Southern hemisphere ground swell fills in at some point in the afternoon. Forerunners from the southern hemi are likely at any time during the day. South facing breaks should average chest high sets but with pluses at times, especially later in the day.

Monday the 1st is expected to run head high at south facing spots, although swell may be slow to fill in with sets being sporadically sized, especially from longer than average periods in the mix. West facing breaks look about waist to chest high.

Tuesday the 2nd is expected to run head high at south facing spots. West facing breaks look about waist to at times chest high.

Wednesday the 3rd is expected to run chest+ at south facing spots.

Thursday the 4th, so far, is expected to run chest high at south facing spots for the dawn patrols but with forerunners throughout the day and an increase in size late in the day.

Friday the 5th, so far, is expected to run head high at south facing spots.

Saturday the 6th, so far, is expected to run head high at south facing spots.

Sunday the 7th, so far, is expected to run chest to head high at south facing spots.

Monday the 8th, so far, is expected to run chest high at south facing spots.

Tuesday the 9th, so far, looks about chest high at south facing spots, bigger later in the day.

Wednesday the 10th, so far, looks about chest to head high at south facing spots.

Thursday the 11th, so far, looks about chest to head high at south facing spots.

Friday the 12th, so far, holds potential for head high swell at south facing breaks.

Saturday the 13th, so far, holds potential for head high swell at south facing breaks. Tropical swell potential begins at this point too.

 

Weather Outlook:
Today (Thursday the 28th) the cut-off low that's been traveling south is now entering SoCal, which we can see from space this morning (image from NOAA GOES):

Rain was passing through Paso Robles early this morning and some of that will progress south into SoCal tonight, clearing by early morning Friday. Amounts look very light with some areas of SoCal seeing no rain while others see trace to upwards of 0.1". Models favor OC and SD seeing the bulk of this. Either way, skies should get cloudy today, but clear weather is ahead.

Aside from initial moisture, that cut-off low is dragging cold air into the atmosphere above SoCal, putting the kibosh on the thermal inversion and thus marine layer formation Friday. This morning in fact, air temps were about 30-40°F a mile up in the atmosphere over SoCal, so there's no lid on the marine layer, allowing it to dissipate quickly, especially on Friday. Although that cold upper air will warm this weekend into early next week and the inversion would strengthen (somewhat), marine layer looks minimal thanks to northerly winds, which will affect mostly the outer waters, along with some mountains and some canyons. It's the same wind that'll kick up the wind swell for Sunday the 31st, shown here Saturday night (model by UQAM):

While that wind-gust model shows winds concentrated in the outer waters, the inland gradients show a decent, offshore northerly push with the LAX-BFL gradient (page 127) measuring -3mb by early morning Sunday the 31st, with northerly gradients slowly weakening thereafter.

So TL;DR: We should have mostly clear skies Friday through the weekend with minimal marine layer for the first part of next week.

An onshore push may then get underway during the second half of next week as models favor a large Pacific low working its way to the PNW with a trough that'd sag south toward the SoCal latitudes. The thermal inversion should be well established by then, so all the ingredients would be present for a seasonal soup of June Gloom.

Taking all of this into account, here's how I'm calling SoCal beach weather for the next few days:

Today (Thursday the 28th) should see AM marine layer with a chance of drizzle at the coast, followed by high clouds throughout the day. Light rain is possible tonight, but some areas may not see any precip at all. Max beach temps should reach the low to mid 60s.

Friday the 29th should see a thin AM marine layer with a burnoff early and max beach temps in the low to mid 60s.

Saturday the 30th should see AM marine layer with a burnoff early morning and max beach temps in the mid to upper 60s.

Sunday the 31st should see little to AM marine layer with max beach temps in the upper 60s to low 70s.

Monday the 1st should see AM marine layer with an early to mid morning burnoff followed by high clouds at times and max beach temps in the upper 60s to low 70s.

Tuesday the 2nd, so far, is expected to see AM marine layer, midmorning burnoff, and max beach temps in the upper 60s to low 70s.

 

Wind Outlook:
Winds at 7:00 AM were light and variable most everywhere. Onshores are expected this afternoon 10-15 mph.

Friday the 29th should see AM light and variables, onshores by noon to 10 mph, and then 15+ mph by mid afternoon.

Saturday the 30th should see AM light and variables, onshores by noon to 10 mph, and then 15+ mph by mid afternoon.

Sunday the 31st should see AM light and variables, onshores by noon to 10 mph, and then 15+ mph by mid afternoon.

 

Until my next report (Sunday), take care, be safe, and smile in the lineup!

—Nathan

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