SoCal Forecast
Updated most Sundays, Tuesdays, and Thursdays
Sunday 8/16/26 7:00 AM
By Nathan Cool
Surf Charts for SoCal
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At a glance:
Today (Sunday the 16th) we have a good amount of southern hemisphere ground swell in SoCal. Light NW wind swell increases over the next couple days as southern hemi weakens. Moderate SW ground swell is due Sunday the 23rd, lasting for a few days. Hurricane swell is becoming possible for the second half of next week. And moderate SW ground swell is being watched for the end of the month. Condition-wise: seasonal beach weather this week but with varying levels of cloud cover; there are precip chances for some areas in about a week; winds are stronger than normal for a couple more days; tide levels are starting to relax; and water temps dipped in some spots.
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Current Conditions:
Early this morning, periods were primarily running 15 seconds from 195-205°.
Most south facing breaks were running chest high with standouts — especially those working the San Diego Trough (see page 111 in Wave by Wave) — seeing head high sets.
Buoys in the outer waters were running 5'. Nearshore buoys were running 2.5-3.2'.
Tide levels are starting to relax from the New Moon last week. Today we have a 0.5' low around 6:30 AM, a 5.2' high around 12:30 PM, a 1.2' low around 7:00 PM, and a 4.2' high after midnight.
Water temps have dipped slightly from upwelling from increasing outer water winds (page 148). Some cooling could continue for a couple more days as winds persist, but waters should warm back up during the second half of the week. Water temps were running 67-71° around most of SD. OC was mostly 71-73°. LA was running 70-73°, although Cabrillo reported 64°. In VC, USCG readings were unavailable for the past 24 hours. SB Harbor reported 68° last night.
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Surf Forecast:
Today (Sunday the 16th) we still have a fair amount of southern hemi ground swell in SoCal from this system that peaked near New Zealand about ten days ago (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):
That swell peaked in SoCal yesterday and should back down to chest high Monday the 17th, and then waist to chest Tuesday the 18th.
Monday the 17th (building day) into Tuesday the 18th (peak) should also see minor NW wind swell in the mix from the same winds causing today's upwelling. This wind/wind-swell is from a trough of low pressure that brought cooler weather the past few days. Winds should peak in the outer waters by Tuesday and then weaken for the second half of the week. Wind swell will follow suit. As for size, this isn't momentous with size at west facing breaks running waist to chest high.
Wednesday the 19th should see light to moderate SW ground swell from this system that was near New Zealand about a week ago (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):
With just 25' seas, most south facing breaks are looking at waist high sets with occasional chest high pluses at standouts. Swell should be angled from 205° and periods 15 seconds. This swell should continue with similar size Thursday the 20th and dip Friday the 21st to waist max.
Saturday the 22nd (building day) into Sunday the 23rd (peak) should see SW ground swell from this system that took a favorable northward course off Antarctica a few days ago (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):
That's a great course for SoCal swell. But with seas only 25', most south facing breaks are looking at waist to chest high sets by Sunday the 23rd (smaller Saturday the 22nd), angled from 195° and periods 15 seconds. Another fetch running behind that system should keep waist to chest high waves going Monday the 24th and Tuesday the 25th.
Wednesday the 26th (building day?) into Thursday the 27th (peak?) could see hurricane swell from this system on the 9-day models (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):
That GFS model is the most bullish this morning with seas nearing 40'. Other models show about half that strength. The course isn't the greatest either, turning to the west-northwest quickly after reaching its peak in the SoCal swell window. Running the numbers on that model works out to sets running head high to 2' overhead at south facing breaks, angled from 175-180° and periods 18 seconds. Although other models aren't so bullish, many things are starting to align to aid this system, including swell-worthy guidance from this classic pattern (model by NOAA MAG):
High pressure (blue circle) is expected to return to the 4-Corners region by early next week, expanding into a large ridge. The clockwise spin on highs like that help to guide hurricanes northward. Warmer than normal waters would provide hurricane fuel along the way. But more important to all of this is the inevitable return of the MJO to the eastern Pacific (pages 85-88 in Surf, Flood, Fire & Mud). That cycle has now reached the Western Pacific and is making its way east. Most models show the MJO reaching the eastern Pacific no later than the end of this month, increasing hurricane potential. Since the MJO's effects often couple with El Niño, the potential for tropical cyclone genesis increases starting next week, more so as we approach (and enter) September. In fact...
Friday the 28th opens another window for hurricane swell potential as many ensemble models, like this NAEFS, show more hurricane activity (model by NOAA MAG):
The earlier hurricane would have travelled to near Hawaii by then while two other cyclones (red arrows) could skirt northward off the coast of Baja. Sure, that's an 11-day model in crystalball territory. But with multiple other ensemble models showing the same, and with their timing matching that of the MJO's return, this earned a yellow-pin in my charts this morning.
Saturday the 29th (building day) into Sunday the 30th (peak), aside from hurricane swell potential, we will likely see moderate SW ground swell from storm activity near New Zealand, including this system on the 4-day (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):
Smaller activity preceding that would initially bring waist high waves to south facing breaks Saturday the 29th, and then that system would increase size to chest high at south facing breaks Sunday the 30th. Swell would be angled from 205-215° with periods 16 seconds.
All of this needs a lot more monitoring. But as long as I have your support then I can continue to keep an eye on the Pacific to keep you posted. Please remember this report is funded by reader donations and your help is crucial to keep it alive (see why here).
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Here's a brief look at how the next few days are breaking down so far:
Monday the 17th looks about chest high at south facing breaks with rarer pluses. West facing spots should run at least waist high as wind swell builds.
Tuesday the 18th looks about waist to chest at south facing spots. West facing spots should run waist to chest from wind swell.
Wednesday the 19th looks about waist to at times chest high at south facing breaks and waist+ at west facing spots.
Thursday the 20th looks about waist to at times chest high at south facing breaks and waist high at west facing spots.
Friday the 21st looks about waist high at most spots.
Saturday the 22nd should see southern hemi swell fill in, starting out at waist high early at south facing breaks, building later in the day.
Sunday the 23rd looks about chest max at south facing spots.
Monday the 24th, so far, looks about chest max at south facing spots.
Tuesday the 25th, so far, looks about chest max at south facing spots.
Wednesday the 26th, so far, holds potential for hurricane swell to fill into SoCal. This needs much more monitoring over the next few days. I'll have an update in my next report.
Weather Outlook:
Today (Sunday the 16th) high pressure is slowly moving back toward the American West after being parked far to the east late last week (see earlier model here). That high should build over the next few days and then wobble about the 4-Corners region with moderate strength, helping to progressively warm SoCal air temperatures this week, although modestly at the coast. Eventually, high pressure should gain ground and become rather strong by Monday the 24th, shown here again to save you from scrolling (model by NOAA MAG):
While swirling that potential hurricane northward, models also like the idea of the high drawing in enough tropical moisture to SoCal to bring precip to SD and possibly OC sometime around Sunday the 23rd into Monday the 24th. But that's a tad early to call.
Meanwhile, clouds are the other weather feature this week from remnants breaking off two sources near SoCal, which we can see from space this morning (image from NOAA GOES):
On the far left we can see hurricane Lala passing through Hawaii. But farther east we can see plenty of tropical clouds (red arrow) being drawn toward SoCal from a low (yellow arrow) swirling counterclockwise in the same trough that's been bringing cool weather — and wind swell starting tomorrow — to SoCal. Chunks of clouds will stream into SoCal this week as a result, so some days in the forecast will have high clouds overhead at varying degrees.
Taking all of this into account, here's how I'm calling SoCal beach weather for the next few days:
Today (Sunday the 16th) could see burn-off mid to late morning, some high clouds at times, and beach max temps in the low to mid 70s.
Monday the 17th should see AM marine layer, burn-off by mid to late morning, a fair amount of high clouds at times, and beach max temps in the low to mid 70s.
Tuesday the 18th should see AM marine layer, burn-off by late morning, a good amount of high clouds most of the day, and beach max temps in the mid 70s.
Wednesday the 19th should see AM marine layer, burn-off early morning, scattered high clouds off and on throughout the day, and beach max temps in the mid 70s.
Thursday the 20th should see AM marine layer, burn-off early morning, scattered high clouds off and on throughout the day, and beach max temps in the mid 70s.
Wind Outlook:
Winds
at 6:00 AM were light to calm most everywhere. Onshores should pick up throughout the morning, reaching 10 mph by noon and then 15-20 mph early to mid afternoon.
Monday the 17th should see AM light and variables with a slight onshore element, onshores by noon to 10 mph, and then 15-20 mph by early to mid afternoon.
Tuesday the 18th should see AM light and variables with a slight onshore element, onshores by noon to 10 mph, and then 15 mph by early to mid afternoon.
Wednesday the 19th should see AM light and variables with afternoon onshores 10-15 mph.
Until my next report (Tuesday), take care, be safe, and smile in the lineup!
