SoCal Forecast
Updated most Sundays, Tuesdays, and Thursdays
Sunday 9/13/26 6:30 AM
By Nathan Cool
Surf Charts for SoCal
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At a glance:
Today (Sunday the 13th) we have a light mix of southerly ground swell and tropical swell, along with increasing NW wind swell. NW wind swell peaks tomorrow. Light to moderate southern hemi is due Wednesday the 16th into Thursday the 17th. Wind swell is likely this coming weekend. Light southern hemi builds Sunday the 20th, peaking with better size a couple days later. And NW wind swell is being watched for the 27th-28th. Condition-wise: cooler weather on tap; winds to increase; tide levels even out shortly; and water temps remain on the warm side but may cool slightly later this week.
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Current Conditions:
Early this morning, periods were primarily running 14 seconds from 195°, 8 seconds from 180°, and 8 seconds from 320°.
Most spots were running waist high with occasional pluses at standouts.
Buoys in the outer waters increased from 5' to about 10' in the last few hours, signaling wind swell that will fill into SoCal later today. Nearshore buoys were hovering around 2' early this morning but should increase later today.
Tide levels will relax over the next few days but are still swinging fairly wide today. Today we have a 1' low around 5:00 AM, a near 6' high around 11:00 AM, a 0.5' low around 5:30 PM, and a 4.5' high around midnight.
Water temps were running 70-74° around most of SD, OC, and LA. In VC, the USCG readings have been unavailable for more than 24 hours. In SB, Stearns Wharf reported 70° this morning. Note there is a chance for upwelling later this week from an increase in NW winds along the coast (page 148).
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Surf Forecast:
Today (Sunday the 13th) southern hemi energy is fading from the New Zealand swell that peaked in SoCal a couple days ago. Minor swell from Norbert is in the mix too. And NW wind swell is on the rise from this trough of low pressure (red circle) diving south into SoCal, housing a potent low that's passing through the PNW (model by NOAA MAG):
This increased Harvest Buoy to near 10' within the past couple hours, signaling the swell's approach to SoCal. NW wind swell should increase throughout the day today, peaking Monday the 14th with chest+ waves at west facing breaks, angled from the wind-swell-usual ≥300° with periods 7-10 seconds. This wind swell should back off to waist to chest at west facing breaks Tuesday the 15th and then waist high Wednesday the 16th.
Wednesday the 16th (building day) into Thursday the 17th (peak) should see light to moderate southerly ground swell from this system that was south of French Polynesia last week (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):
That wasn't an ideal course for SoCal swell, which works out to waist to chest max waves at south facing breaks, angled from 195° and periods 17 seconds. This swell should linger Friday the 18th and back off Saturday the 19th.
Saturday the 19th through Monday the 21st could see a fair amount of NW wind swell as this low dives south into SoCal (model by NOAA MAG):
That would bring much cooler weather, but also enough wind to kick up chest+ wind swell at west facing breaks. There's still a ways to go on this but models have been consistent the past few days and are in agreement this morning. Either way, we should see southern hemisphere ground swell build around this time.
Sunday the 20th (building day) into Monday the 21st should see SW ground swell start to build from this activity that was near New Zealand (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):
Although that particular fetch was located south of New Zealand, which blocked a good amount of its swell, it did reform and move northward today, sending us something better for the 22nd-23rd (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):
This should result in initially waist high waves at south facing breaks Sunday the 20th and Monday the 21st, increasing to waist to chest Tuesday the 22nd, and then chest high Wednesday the 23rd. Swell should be angled from 215-220° with periods 16-17 seconds. This swell should continue with chest high waves Thursday the 24th, waist to chest Friday the 25th, and then waist high Saturday the 26th. Wind swell, btw, should fade Tuesday the 22nd.
Sunday the 27th into Monday the 28th could see a fairly robust round of NW wind swell as the extended long range models show this low diving through SoCal (model by NOAA MAG):
Some models show light precip from that low as well, but it's too far out on the long range to make it more than a footnote for now. Notice also the green circle on the bottom right, highlighting a tropical storm that might form as well. That would bring potential tropical swell around the 1st-2nd, but it's also just a footnote today.
Looking out further on the SoCal surf horizon, both hemispheres of the Pacific are quieting down on the long range models, which isn't all too surprising given the time of year. Tropical activity is high in the Western Pacific but it'll do nothing for SoCal surf. The southern hemisphere is lackluster on the models right now. And wind swell aside, nothing is noteworthy north of the equator. At least for now.
Something to note as we approach the last weeks of hurricane season, is that the marine heat wave (MHW) off Baja, which has helped guide hurricanes north, might get disrupted or weakened slightly over the next few weeks. Here's how that looked, along with El Niño's warm waters, a couple days ago (model from NOAA Coral Reef Watch):
These marine heat waves are often the result of a lack of upwelling (page 148). But weather models today are favoring a windier pattern along the west coast of the U.S., which might, in turn, create some upwelling over the next few weeks. It's doubtful it'd be enough to completely diminish the marine heat wave, but it might tamp it down a bit by the end of the month. Either way, El Niño remains strong and on track for a potentially active winter of waves and weather (image from NOAA CPC):
As you might recall from my last report, this latest NOAA forecast is a slight upgrade with the mean strength (black line) peaking in October, November, December (OND) at about 2.6°C. By comparison, the El Niño of 2015-16 measured 2.6°C, and the 1997-98 Niño was 2.4°C. So this year's El Niño might meet or exceed those events' signal strength. But this doesn't dictate a repeat of the same weather and waves we experienced in the past (something I talk about in Surf, Flood, Fire & Mud).
For instance, the El Niño of 1997-1998 — which tore the end off the Ventura Pier with 20'+ waves at the end of January '98 — resulted in a wet winter of about 38" of total rain for parts of Ventura County. But even though the 2015-16 El Niño was stronger, it brought only about 10" of rain for the winter, falling well below the normal 14" in VC. It wasn't until the following winter, when El Niño was gone, that we got above average rainfall in SoCal (about 20" in Ventura County). This same uncertainty applies to surf.
El Niño does only one thing that affects SoCal: it increases the "chance" for heavy swells and rain as it positions the jetstream across SoCal, instead of to our north (see illustrations on page 96 in Wave by Wave). This doesn't guarantee the number of storms or their potency. It merely lays the tracks for NorthPac storms to travel. It's up to numerous other variables to determine the frequency and strength of storms that ride El Niño's jetstream express our way. So while the potential exists for an active winter ahead with a warning to prepare, it doesn't ensure what exactly will unfold.
All of this needs a lot more monitoring in the coming weeks and months. But as long as I have your support then I can continue to keep an eye on the Pacific to keep you posted. Please remember this report is funded by reader donations and your help is crucial to keep it alive (see why here).
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Here's a brief look at how the next few days are breaking down so far:
Monday the 14th looks about chest+ at west facing breaks and waist high at south facing spots.
Tuesday the 15th looks about chest high at west facing spots and waist high at south facing spots.
Wednesday the 16th looks about waist to at times chest high at south facing spots, smaller at west facing breaks.
Thursday the 17th looks about waist to chest at south facing spots, much smaller at west facing spots.
Friday the 18th looks about waist to chest at south facing breaks, smaller at west facing spots.
Saturday the 19th, so far, looks about waist to chest at most breaks.
Sunday the 20th, so far, looks about chest+ at west facing breaks and waist high at south facing spots.
Monday the 21st, so far, looks about chest high at west facing breaks and waist high at south facing spots.
Tuesday the 22nd, so far, looks about waist to chest at south facing breaks and waist high at west facing spots.
Wednesday the 23rd, so far, looks about chest high at south facing breaks and waist high at west facing spots.
Weather Outlook:
Today (Sunday the 13th) we're transitioning into a cooler weather pattern as the once-dominant 4-Corners heatwave high is all but gone, and low pressure troughing is pushing toward SoCal from the Pacific. Back to back troughs are on tap for the next couple weeks with no major high pressure near — let alone in — SoCal. Marine layer will become more commonplace, but the inversion (page 131) is moderate to weak. The exception for the marine layer forecast is SB, especially more toward Pt. Conception as NW winds are scouring out the marine layer there, which we can see from space this morning (image from NOAA GOES):
NW winds will be more common through the forecast, which could create some overnight coastal eddies (page 135). In fact, light southerly wind readings early this morning along the coast signal that may have actually happened last night. As these winds become stronger late in the week, they might scour out marine layer earlier everywhere Friday the 18th into the weekend, making for earlier clearing but early onshores too, making it one of those times when "if it's clear, then winds are near". For the most part though, today through the 25th should see mild weather with an onshore influence.
The only major question mark in the forecast is possible precip around the 27th-28th from one forecast low/trough that would push well into SoCal, shown here again to save you from scrolling (model by NOAA MAG):
Models show light precip around SoCal around the 27th-28th, but nothing major so far.
Taking all of this into account, here's how I'm calling SoCal beach weather for the next few days:
Today (Sunday the 13th) should see burn-off by mid to late morning and max beach temps in the mid 70s.
Monday the 14th should see AM marine layer with a burn-off mid to late morning and max beach temps in the low to mid 70s.
Tuesday the 15th should see AM marine layer with a burn-off by late morning and max beach temps in the low 70s.
Wednesday the 16th should see AM marine layer with a burn-off around noon or early afternoon and max beach temps in the low 70s.
Thursday the 17th should see AM marine layer with a burn-off by noon and max beach temps in the low 70s.
Friday the 18th should see AM marine layer with a burn-off early to midmorning and max beach temps in the low 70s.
Wind Outlook:
Winds
at 6:00 AM light and variable most everywhere along the SoCal coast with a slightly southerly element in some spots. Afternoon onshores should run 10-15 mph.
Monday the 14th should see AM light and variables with afternoon onshores 10-15 mph.
Tuesday the 15th should see AM light and variables with afternoon onshores 10-15 mph.
Wednesday the 16th should see AM light and variables with afternoon onshores 10-15 mph.
Thursday the 17th, so far, is expected to see AM light and variables, picking up by noon to 10 mph, then 15-20 mph by mid afternoon.
Friday the 18th, so far, is expected to see AM light and variables, picking up by noon to 10 mph, then 15-20 mph by mid afternoon.
Until my next report (Tuesday), take care, be safe, and smile in the lineup!
