SoCal Forecast
Updated most Sundays, Tuesdays, and Thursdays
Sunday 10/11/26 6:20 AM
By Nathan Cool
Surf Charts for SoCal
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At a glance:
Today (Sunday the 11th) we have quite a mix of wind swell and ground swells in SoCal. Spotty, yet moderately sized NW ground swell from Choi-Wan is due Monday the 12th. Decent sized SW ground swell is due Tuesday the 13th. SW ground swell is due this coming weekend. NW ground swell is being watched for the 19th. Swell from Typhoon Koguma may arrive shortly after. Decent sized SW ground swell is due by Tuesday the 20th. And I'll discuss the above normal water levels and what that means over the next few months. Condition-wise: rain shifts to a Santa Ana this week; winds problematic at times; a tidal swing is underway; water temps have cooled slightly in some spots; and warnings are in effect.
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Current Conditions:
Early this morning, periods were primarily running 6-10 seconds from 310°, 11-12 seconds from 310°, and 17 seconds from 200°.
Most west facing breaks were running upwards of head high, mostly from wind swell. South facing breaks were about chest to head high with ground swell dominant.
Buoys in the outer waters were running 10-13'. Nearshore buoys were running 3.3' (south facing) to 6.3' (west facing) with southern hemi being about 2.5' on the spectrum and the rest mostly wind swell.
Tide levels continue to run at least 12" deeper than tide-table predictions from warmer than normal waters off SoCal (more on that later in this report). Tide levels over the past couple days have run about 18" above normal. For instance, last night's 5.1' high tide measured close to 7' around parts of OC and SD. That has backed down to 18" above normal around most of SoCal this morning. This will be an issue for a while as a 6' high in the tide tables will actually be a 7.5' high tide. Today, for instance, we have a predicted 6' high around 10:00 AM, which should actually measure 7.5'. We then have a slightly negative low around 5:00 AM, and a predicted 4.5' high around 11:00 PM.
Water temps were running 71-73° around most of SD, OC, and LA. In VC, Channel Islands Harbor reported 68° last night. In SB, Stearns Wharf reported 70° this morning.
Hazard Warnings: A number of warnings and advisories are in effect from the Rachel-influenced storm passing through SoCal, along with the higher than normal water levels around SoCal affecting coastal flooding and beach erosion. The NWS has issued a number of warnings as well for SB, VC, and LA here and OC and SD here.
Water Contact Advisory: Rain, which has stayed mostly from LA south but will affect other areas soon, has increased the risk of contamination from runoff in the surf zone. As a reminder, there is a risk of high bacteria levels for at least 72 hours following any measurable rain event (usually 0.1" or more) during which time water contact should be avoided.
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Surf Forecast:
Today (Sunday the 11th) wind swell has become dominant at many spots from this weather pattern you might recall from earlier reports, where Rachel (red arrow) moving north collided with a northern low (green arrow) diving south into SoCal (model by NOAA MAG):
We also have a number of other swells in SoCal including fading southern hemi and NW ground swell from the Aleutians.
Monday the 12th should see the wind swell back down as moderate southern hemi continues and intermittent NW ground swell comes ashore from Choi-Wan (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):
Choi-Wan whipped up 40-50' seas last week as it got caught up in the North Pacific Gyre (page 146). Its course wasn't ideal, so we'll see a high degree of angular spreading decay (page 52). This and its distance of 4,500 nautical miles from SoCal means swell will be highly intermittent with few waves per set and long lulls between sets. As for size, west facing breaks are looking at sporadic chest to head high waves from Choi-Wan Monday the 12th, angled from 300° and periods 21 seconds. The average sets at most spots should run chest high, so Choi-Wan will occasionally add bigger set waves to west facing breaks.
Tuesday the 13th should see SW ground swell from this storm that traveled north off Antarctica last week (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):
That should produce chest+ sets at south facing breaks Tuesday the 13th angled from 205° with periods 16 seconds. West facing breaks are looking at the average sets having smaller size, with occasional pluses from Choi-Wan.
Wednesday the 14th should continue to see chest+ sets at south facing breaks from the southern hemi; west facing spots will see smaller surf. The southern hemi should back off to around chest max at south facing spots Thursday the 15th, and then waist to chest Friday the 16th.
Saturday the 17th (building day) into Sunday the 18th (peak) should see SW ground swell from this system that broke off Antarctica (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):
With 30-35' seas on that course, south facing breaks should see chest+ sets by Sunday the 18th, angled from 200° and periods 17 seconds. Some head high pluses are possible at standout south facing spots Sunday the 18th.
Monday the 19th, as that southern hemi swell continues, we may see NW ground swell from this system, poised to dive southward in the Gulf of Alaska (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):
So far, that holds potential for chest+ sets at west facing breaks Monday the 19th, angled from 300° with periods 14 seconds. Southern hemisphere ground swell should produce chest+ sets at south facing breaks Monday the 19th as well, but two other swells are being watched for that timeframe.
Monday the 19th (building day) into Tuesday the 20th could see NW ground swell from Typhoon Koguma, shown here on the 3-day outlook (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):
Similar to Choi-Wan, sets would be sporadic from Koguma's distance and course. Size would run chest high at west facing breaks, angled from 300° and periods 16 seconds. Since the Aleutian swell may outdo that with chest+ waves, Koguma would be mostly added waves in the mix; however, there is a chance for pluses from constructive interference with the Aleutian swell (page 84).
Monday the 19th (building day) into Tuesday the 20th (peak), should also see SW ground swell from this system that just broke off Antarctica (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):
Seas peaked at 30', which is a slight downgrade from last week's models. Running the numbers today, this works out to chest+ sets at south facing breaks Tuesday the 20th with head high pluses at standouts. Swell should be angled from 190° and periods 16 seconds. This swell should run chest+ at south facing breaks Wednesday the 21st; chest max Thursday the 22nd; and then waist high Friday the 23rd.
Coastal Flooding Update: Last but not least, I wanted to give an update on the recent coastal flooding, attributed in large part to higher than normal water levels off SoCal.
As with all El Niños, water temps have increased in our area, which in turn raises sea levels from thermal expansion. But this isn't entirely new. For instance, the 1997-98 El Niño increased sea levels off SoCal by about 12". Something similar happened this year too. The warming off SoCal — and the entire eastern equatorial Pacific — is common from El Niño and its normally-occurring Kelvin Waves. These Kelvin Waves, and their ominous name, caught the eye of the media over the past few months (more on that here). But this is just a background signal — not the headline.
This year, besides the expected warming and subsequent sea level rise from El Niño and its Kelvin Waves, we've had an abnormal Marine Heat Wave off SoCal and Baja, which I circled on this sea surface temperature anomaly chart (model from NOAA Coral Reef Watch):
That marine heat wave has been present for months; in fact, it actually started to develop in 2025 (long before El Niño and its Kelvin Waves). This Marine Heat Wave off SoCal and Baja was created in large part from a lack of northerly wind events that would normally cause upwelling, which would keep the waters cooler. This year though, high pressure has been very strong over SoCal and Baja, creating heatwaves across SoCal while warming the Marine Heat Wave too. This Marine Heat Wave increased sea levels by a foot before Marie's swell hit SoCal. The 6' "predicted" high tides (in tide tables) actually measured about 7', and at times 7.5', due to the higher sea levels from the Marine Heat Wave. This caused coastal flooding and beach erosion, which hasn't had time to recuperate since other swells since Marie have come ashore.
Sea levels were running about 18" above normal when Rachel made landfall to our south, and are about 14" above normal this morning. But tides will run even deeper over the coming weeks and months as this year we're in a Lunar Nodal Cycle, which happens every 18.6 years. This will be more noticeable this winter when king tides reach upwards of 7.5' around the Christmas holiday. That's the predicted height in the tide tables. Add another 18" on top of that from sea level rise and we have a 9' high tide Christmas Eve and Christmas Day. If a storm and/or swell comes ashore then, there would be potential for storm surge adding another foot for a 10' high tide. These are almost unheard of high tides, which could cause widespread coastal flooding and damage; if, that is, we have a notable swell around that time.
Further warming of the Marine Heat Wave could cause tidal depths to increase even more, which is something that needs monitoring as we're likely nearing the peak of El Niño (image from NOAA CPC):
The 3-month spans on that model — like OND for October, November, December — show El Niño will likely peak soon and then slowly diminish as winter gets into full swing. There are some differences on the strength of El Niño, but as it stands right now there is a 75% chance that it could reach historic warmth. The result is not guaranteed which, historically has a 70% average of bringing higher than normal rainfall and stronger than normal winter swells (something I talk about in Surf, Flood, Fire & Mud).
The current concern is coastal flooding and further beach erosion. With sea levels above normal in many spots now, any storm surge could add to that rise, placing high risk for coastal damage during strong swells. More concern is on the longer range as we approach the winter months when El Niño's effects become more pronounced.
Given the state of the Pacific there's a lot to monitor in the coming days, weeks and months. But as long as I have your support then I can continue to monitor the Pacific to keep you posted. Please remember this report is funded by reader donations and your help is vital to keep it alive (see why here).
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Here's a brief look at how the next few days are breaking down so far:
Monday the 12th should run chest high at most breaks with occasional head high pluses at standout west facing spots.
Tuesday the 13th looks about chest+ at south facing breaks and intermittently chest to head high at west facing spots.
Wednesday the 14th looks about chest+ at south facing breaks and waist to chest high at west facing spots.
Thursday the 15th looks about chest high at south facing breaks and waist high at west facing spots.
Friday the 16th looks about waist to chest at south facing breaks, smaller at west facing spots.
Saturday the 17th should start out at waist to chest high at south facing breaks with swell building later in the way.
Sunday the 18th, so far, looks about chest+ at south facing spots, smaller at west facing breaks.
Monday the 19th, so far, looks about chest+ at most breaks.
Tuesday the 20th, so far, looks about chest+ at most breaks with head high pluses at standout south facing spots.
Weather Outlook:
Early this morning (Sunday the 11th) rain was moving through much of SD and OC and parts of LA. Very little was making it into VC or SB, but models show wrap-around moisture bringing precip to most areas Monday the 12th — although lighter than what OC and SD have seen so far.
Tuesday the 13th should see the stormy pattern move east as high pressure builds, making for clear skies and slowly warming temps.
Starting Wednesday the 14th, a Santa Ana pattern should develop as high pressure strengths across the American West, more so in the Great Basin where surface temps there will be around the freezing mark, making for the typical Santa Ana pattern that affects SoCal (page 116). The LAX-DAG gradient is forecasting a moderate Santa Ana a -4mb (page 129). Compressional heating should warm beaches into the 80s during the second half of the week as skies stay clear. Winds will trend offshore and become strong in some spots, especially VC and parts of OC (see Wind section below).
High pressure should weaken Saturday the 17th into Sunday the 18th, which is when the Santa Ana will likely end, yielding to a weak onshore flow by Monday the 19th.
Taking all of this into account, here's how I'm calling SoCal beach weather for the next few days:
Today (Sunday the 11th) should see rain from LA south, with lower chances farther north. Max beach temps should reach the upper 60s.
Monday the 12th should see light rain in most spots, but spotty. Beach max temps should reach the upper 60s.
Tuesday the 13th should see clear skies with max beach temps around 70°.
Wednesday the 14th should see clear skies with max beach temps in the mid 70s.
Thursday the 15th should see clear skies with max beach temps around 80°.
Friday the 16th should see clear skies with max beach temps in the mid 80s.
Saturday the 17th should see clear skies with max beach temps in the mid 80s.
Wind Outlook:
Winds
at 8:00 AM were onshore from the WSW 10-15 mph in many spots with higher gusts to 25 mph. WSW winds should become sustained at 20 mph by noon, gusting to 25 mph this afternoon.
Monday the 12th should see light AM onshores 5-10 mph and afternoon onshores to 15 mph.
Tuesday the 13th should see AM light and variables and afternoon onshores 10-15 mph.
Wednesday the 14th should see light AM offshores 4-8 mph and afternoon onshores 8-12 mph.
Thursday the 15th should see AM offshores to 10 mph and afternoon onshores to 10 mph; however, NE winds may increase overnight, especially across VC to 20 mph (after midnight).
Friday the 16th, so far, looks like a moderately strong Santa Ana with winds affecting VC the most at 15-20 mph early with gusts to 25+ mph. Other wind-prone areas like parts of OC could see offshores 15-20 mph at times, but other, less affected areas will likely see offshores 10-15 mph max.
Until my next report (Tuesday), take care, be safe, and smile in the lineup!
