SoCal Forecast
Updated most Sundays, Tuesdays, and Thursdays
Sunday 11/1/26 5:55 AM
By Nathan Cool
Surf Charts for SoCal
Rincon | Ventura, C-St. | County Line | Malibu | Hermosa | Huntington BeachTrestles | Old Mans | Oceanside | Beacons | Sunset Cliffs
Subscribe to be notified:
Get notified when this report is updated.
At a glance:
Today (Sunday the 1st) we have decently sized SW ground swell in SoCal. NW ground swell is due by Tuesday the 3rd. Moderately sized NW swell is due by Thursday the 5th. Bigger NW ground swell is becoming likely for the weekend (7th-8th). And a series of WNW ground swells are being monitored for the 13th, which may continue for a while. Condition-wise: clearer weather shortly; rain is being watched on the long range; winds trend offshore shortly; tide levels are running higher than normal and are about to become even deeper; water temps remain on the warm side; and advisories are in effect.
|
|
|
Current Conditions:
Early this morning, periods were primarily running 15 seconds from 190°.
Most south facing breaks were running upwards of head high with pluses at spots that work refraction from the San Diego Trough (page 111). West facing spots were mostly chest high, bigger at SW exposed spots.
Buoys in the outer waters were running 5-7'. Nearshore buoys were running 2.3-3.0'.
Water temps were running 70-74° around most of SD and OC. LA was hovering around 72°. In VC, Channel Islands Harbor reported 72° last night. In SB, Stearns Wharf reported 70° this morning.
Tidal Advisory: Sea levels along SoCal are running about 19" above normal as the Marine Heat Wave continues off Baja and SoCal (more on that later in the report). We're also experiencing naturally deeper high tides from the 18.6-year lunar nodal cycle. While the tide tables account for the lunar cycle, they don't include the above normal sea levels from thermal expansion. This will be a critical issue later this week into the coming weekend as we approach a New Moon Sunday the 8th. By then, the "predicted" highs will be near 6.5', which will actually be around 8'.
Water Contact Advisory: Rain has increased the risk of contamination from runoff in the surf zone. As a reminder, there is a risk of high bacteria levels for at least 72 hours following any measurable rain event (usually 0.1" or more) during which time water contact should be avoided.
New Release: Wave By Wave
Take a journey into the hidden forces behind every swell and the ocean's connection to our human experience. After more than 30 years of tracking storms across the Pacific, Nathan Cool's latest book, Wave By Wave, takes you beyond basic swell prediction and into the deeper story behind the surf. From distant, powerful storms to the moment a wave breaks, you'll learn how to read the ocean with confidence and discover how these rhythmic forces bind us to the sea with a deeper sense of meaning.
Get the Book
Surf Forecast:
Today (Sunday the 1st) we have SW ground swell in SoCal from this system you might recall from earlier reports that took an ideal, surf-worthy course off Antarctica about nine days ago (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):
This swell should linger to a somewhat lesser degree Monday the 2nd and Tuesday the 3rd at around chest to head high at most south facing spots.
Tuesday the 3rd should also see NW ground swell from this system that broke off Kamachatka and recently peaked south of the Aleutian Chain (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):
That should produce chest to head high sets at west facing breaks Tuesday the 3rd, angled from 305-310° and periods 18 seconds. South facing breaks are looking at chest to head high sets from the lingering southern hemi.
Wednesday the 4th, as that NW swell continues, more NW swell should fill in from this close-proximity system that should peak in SoCal Thursday the 5th (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):
While Wednesday the 4th should run chest high at most breaks, Thursday the 5th should see a slight boost at west facing breaks to chest+ while the southern hemi backs off to waist to chest at south facing breaks. The NW swell should be angled from 300° with periods 12 seconds.
Friday the 6th (building day) into Saturday the 7th should see NW ground swell from this system near the Aleutians on the 2-day models (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):
Activity preceding that main storm should keep west facing breaks in chest high waves Friday the 6th, and then increasing to head high Saturday the 7th. Swell should be angled from 305° with periods 17 seconds on Saturday. But that's not all.
Sunday the 8th and Monday the 9th could see an increase in — or continuation of — NW ground swell as the 4-day models show the same system reforming in the Gulf of Alaska with impressive seas a couple days later (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):
That calculates out to head high sets at west facing breaks, angled from 310° and periods 16 seconds. This swell would likely linger at head high Tuesday the 10th; chest to head high Wednesday the 11th; and then chest high Thursday the 12th.
Friday the 13th (building late) into Saturday the 14th could see sizable WNW ground swell from this system on the 10-day models that'd take a nearly direct path toward SoCal (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):
With 30' seas from that position, SoCal would see almost no angular decay (page 52), with size running 3-4' overhead at west facing breaks, angled from 280-285° and periods 16 seconds. Consistency would be high with short, infrequent lulls between sets. This could actually be the first in a series of WNW ground swells that'd hit SoCal with more swells showing up on the long range models for the 15th and beyond as the jetstream (green) takes on a classic El Niño shape, running unabated from the Western Pacific through SoCal (model by NOAA MAG):
It's a textbook El Niño pattern for strong NW ground swells as the jetstream forms an express lane for storms to grow unabated across the entire North Pacific before reaching SoCal. Rain chances increase as well. Note also the telltale low pressure in the Gulf of Alaska — another marker of an El Niño pattern. Yet things are becoming a bit more complicated.
While El Niño remains strong, the marine heat wave (MHW) has become stronger and more widespread off the west coast from Oregon south past Cabo (model from NOAA Coral Reef Watch):
That marine heat wave started in 2025 and became especially warm this past summer from numerous heatwaves that cooked the American West — and waters off SoCal and Baja. Northerly winds along the coast have been much weaker this year so we haven't had much in the way of cold-water upwelling, which would normally keep our waters cooler. So before summer got underway, that marine wave was very warm, and growing. As it warmed, Kelvin Waves in this year's El Niño added to this warmth; although, those were only a small portion of the abnormal warmth off SoCal and Baja (more on that here). With the marine heat wave so well established, even once El Niño wanes the marine heat wave may stay — for possibly another year or more.
Yet El Niño may be reaching its peak, much earlier than models showed earlier this year (model from NOAA CPC)
NOAA's PDF corrected models have been aligned for more than a week now on the idea that El Niño would weaken before our bigger surf and heavier rain months of January and February. This raises the probability for bigger surf as we get into December versus waiting until January. The heaviest rain could fall earlier than normal as well.
For the near term, the marine heat wave is quite concerning as it raised sea levels to about 19" above normal today, up slightly from last week. This is compounded by an 18.6-year nodal lunar cycle that is creating higher tides this year, including king tides reaching 7.5' around the Christmas holiday. Add another 1.5' on top of that from sea-level rise and we have a 9' high tide Christmas Eve and Christmas Day.
And last but not least, I did want to mention that reader donations slipped over the past month. The donation goal is now in negative territory, falling behind what's needed to keep this report going. Since this report is funded by reader support, your contributions are needed to keep this report alive (see why here). So if you find this report useful and you haven't donated recently, please consider chipping in to help keep this report alive.
|
|
|
Here's a brief look at how the next few days are breaking down so far:
Monday the 2nd is expected to run chest to head high at south facing breaks and chest max at west facing spots.
Tuesday the 3rd looks about chest to head high at west facing breaks and chest+ at south facing spots.
Wednesday the 4th looks about chest+ at west facing breaks and chest max at south facing spots.
Thursday the 5th looks about chest high at west facing breaks and waist high at south facing spots.
Friday the 6th should run chest high at west facing breaks and waist high at south facing spots.
Saturday the 7th, so far, looks about head high at west facing breaks.
Sunday the 8th, so far, looks about head high at west facing breaks.
Monday the 9th, so far, looks about head high at west facing breaks.
Tuesday the 10th, so far, looks about head high at west facing breaks.
Wednesday the 11th, so far, looks about chest to head high at west facing spots.
Thursday the 12th, so far, looks about chest high at west facing spots.
Friday the 13th, so far, has potential to see NW swell increase throughout the day.
Saturday the 14th, so far, holds potential for sets running 3-4' overhead at west facing breaks.
Sunday the 15th, so far, looks similar.
Weather Outlook:
Today (Sunday the 1st) a few rain cells were moving through SoCal, bringing brief showers that'd interrupt otherwise partly-cloudy to mostly-sunny skies. The storm is on the way out and high pressure should build over the west coast Monday the 2nd. A brief, weak onshore flow is expected Tuesday the 3rd as a low passes to the north of SoCal. Once that low passes to the east, a bit more offshoreness should develop with a weak Santa Ana peaking Friday the 6th. That's when the LAX-DAG gradient shows a mild to moderate -2.6mb (page 129). No major Santa Ana is expected as the Great Basin High should top out at around 1032 hPa with a weak to moderate cold air mass, which shouldn't provide much in the way of Santa Ana support (page 116).
Weaker high pressure should meander about the American West for the first half of next week before a rainy trough of low pressure swipes SoCal by Thursday the 12th. Models have stayed the course with rain starting Thursday the 12th, with more rain for the weekend of the 14th-15th from another storm. This as the jetstream takes on a classic, El Niño shape, shown here again to save you from scrolling (model by NOAA MAG):
Things could be wet for a while and the ensembles are bullish with plenty of rain for many days after. However, that's venturing into long-range-land when models tend to become overly optimistic. Still, given the state of the Pacific right now, confidence is on the high side for more rain over the medium-term.
Taking all of this into account, here's how I'm calling SoCal beach weather for the next few days:
Today (Sunday the 1st) could see a quick pop-up shower but things should become clearer in the afternoon. Beach max temps should reach the upper 60s.
Monday the 2nd should see little to no AM marine layer and max beach temps in the upper 60s to low 70s.
Tuesday the 3rd should see little to no AM marine layer and max beach temps in the upper 60s to low 70s.
Wednesday the 4th should see AM marine layer, early to mid AM burn-off, and max beach temps in the low 70s.
Thursday the 5th will likely see light AM marine layer, quick burn-off, passing high clouds at times, and max beach temps in the low to mid 70s.
Friday the 6th, so far, is looking at a thin marine layer with quick burn-off and max beach temps in the mid 70s.
Wind Outlook:
Winds
at 7:00 AM were light and variable most everywhere. Onshores should pick up by noon 10-15 mph and run 20-25 mph this afternoon.
Monday the 2nd should see AM light and variables with a slight offshore element. Afternoon onshores should run 8-12 mph.
Tuesday the 3rd should see AM light and variables, onshores by noon to 10 mph, and then onshore in the afternoon 15-20 mph.
Wednesday the 4th will likely see light AM offshores 5-10 mph and afternoon onshores around 10 mph.
Until my next report (Tuesday), take care, be safe, and smile in the lineup!
