SoCal Forecast
Updated most Sundays, Tuesdays, and Thursdays
Tuesday 10/20/26 5:35 AM
By Nathan Cool
Surf Charts for SoCal
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At a glance:
Today (Tuesday the 20th) we have a good deal of southern hemisphere ground swell in SoCal with background NW ground swell. More NW ground swell is due tomorrow. Lighter southern hemi is due later this week. A series of SW ground swells are due during the second half of next week. Somewhat bigger SW ground swell is being watched for the 1st. Condition-wise: rain is on the way; winds shift through the forecast; water levels are higher than normal; water temps have warmed in many spots; and advisories are in effect.
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Current Conditions:
Early this morning, periods were primarily running 15-17 seconds from 190°.
Most south facing breaks were running head high with overhead pluses at standouts favored by the San Diego Trough (page 111). West facing breaks were mostly chest high, bigger at SW exposed spots.
Buoys in the outer waters were running 7-9'. Nearshore buoys were about 3'.
Water temps were running 72-74° around most of SD and OC. LA was mostly 70-72°. In VC, Channel Islands Harbor reported 72° last night. In SB, Stearns Wharf reported 70° this morning.
Tidal Advisory: Water levels are running about 16-17" above normal, up a couple inches over the past few days as the Marine Heat Wave continues off Baja and SoCal. We're also in a tidal amplification phase from an 18.6-year lunar nodal cycle, which is creating wide tidal swings as well. While the tide tables account for the lunar nodal cycle, they don't account for the above normal water levels due to thermal expansion from El Niño and the Marine Heat Wave off SoCal; thus, the tide table readings need another 16" added to them to represent more accurate levels. For instance, today's 4.5' high tides, around 7:30 AM and 6:00 PM, will actually be over 6'. These high tides will deepen further as we approach a Full Moon Sunday the 25th; weekend high tides will be over 6', which will actually be closer to 8'.
Hazard Warnings: Today's swell will increase the risk of rip currents, and the higher than normal tide levels could cause further beach erosion and coastal flooding. The NWS has issued advisories as well for SB, VC, and LA here and OC and SD here.
Water Contact Advisory: Rain is on the way (see Weather section below), which will increase the risk of contamination from runoff in the surf zone. As a reminder, there is a risk of high bacteria levels for at least 72 hours following any measurable rain event (usually 0.1" or more) during which time water contact should be avoided.
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Surf Forecast:
Today (Tuesday the 20th) we're reaching the peak of the two southern hemisphere ground swells that formed a couple weeks ago. Today we're seeing swell 2-of-2 from this system (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):
While that is the dominant swell in SoCal, we're also seeing sporadic NW ground swell from what was Typhoon Koguma (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):
We're also seeing the first signs of NW ground swell that will peak in SoCal Wednesday the 21st from this fetch diving south off the west coast, associated with stormy weather headed to SoCal (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):
Most of that system's swell energy will skirt past SoCal, but it should be enough to keep west facing breaks in at least chest high waves Wednesday the 21st, angled from 295° and periods 14 seconds. South facing breaks will see bigger surf as the southern hemi slowly wanes to chest to head high Wednesday. However, conditions are questionable Wednesday as a storm approaches SoCal (see Weather and Wind sections below).
Thursday the 22nd should see size back off to about chest high at south facing breaks and chest max at west facing breaks as the southern hemi and NW ground swells fade.
Friday the 23rd should see SW ground swell from this low latitude southern hemi (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):
This should put most south facing breaks into waist to chest high waves Friday the 23rd and Saturday the 24th with swell angled from 195° and periods 17 seconds. West facing breaks look smaller, about waist high Friday and Saturday.
Sunday the 25th sees the southern hemi back down to about waist high at south facing breaks, smaller at west facing spots. Smaller surf is expected everywhere Monday the 26th and Tuesday the 27th.
Wednesday the 28th and Thursday the 29th should see initially light to moderate SW ground swell from this activity hugging the ice cap (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):
That should produce initially waist high waves at south facing breaks Wednesday the 28th and then waist to chest Thursday the 29th with swell angled from 205-210° with periods 16 seconds.
Thursday the 29th, along with the southern hemisphere swell, we might also see light NW ground swell from this system near Kamchatka on the 3-day models (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):
So far, that looks like a waist to chest high swell for west facing breaks, angled from 310° and periods 15 seconds.
Friday the 30th will likely see a slight boost at south facing breaks as swell comes ashore from these two systems drifting north off Antarctica on the 2-day models (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):
That should put south facing breaks into more consistent chest+ sets Friday the 30th with swell angled from 195-200° and periods 16 seconds. This swell would likely linger in the chest high range Saturday the 31st.
Sunday the 1st might see yet another boost in SW ground swell as the 4-day models like the idea of this system taking a more northerly course, directing swell toward SoCal (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):
So far, that holds potential for chest to head high sets at south facing breaks, angled from 205° and periods 16 seconds.
Looking toward the tropics, Vance — although not named yet — continues to look like a very strong hurricane. But it isn't expected to cross our ideal swell window, starting at that green line (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):
The fetch's purple core represents 40' seas, but from that position swell would be angled 145° relative to SoCal, so only a small fraction of energy would reach SoCal's south facing breaks. So far, this looks about chest high at south facing breaks around the 27th or 28th, which is only slightly bigger than the southern hemi swell around that time. This is on the 6-day so it needs much more monitoring.
On the El Niño front, models continue to show El Niño may be reaching its peak but would stay fairly strong in November and December. It may then weaken quite a bit when we reach our normally rainy months of January and February (model from NOAA CPC)
The sea surface temps are running 2.4°C above normal in the El Niño 3.4 zone, which is used to gauge El Niño strength. By comparison, the El Niño of 2015-16 measured 2.6°C, and the 1997-98 Niño was 2.4°C. Some models do show additional warming over the next month, but almost all models show a decline after the first of the year. Nevertheless, there is a high likelihood for heavy, El Niño-driven surf and rain in the coming months.
The Pacific is quite active with a lot to watch right now. And as long as I have your support then I can continue to monitor the Pacific to keep you posted. Please remember this report is funded by reader donations and your help is vital to keep it alive (see why here).
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Here's a brief look at how the next few days are breaking down so far:
Wednesday the 21st looks about chest to head high at south facing breaks and chest high at west facing spots.
Thursday the 22nd looks about chest high at south facing breaks and waist to chest at west facing spots.
Friday the 23rd looks about waist to chest at most breaks.
Saturday the 24th looks about waist to chest at most breaks.
Sunday the 25th looks about waist high at most breaks.
Monday the 26th looks about waist high at most breaks.
Tuesday the 27th looks about waist high at most breaks.
Wednesday the 28th, so far, looks about waist high at most breaks.
Thursday the 29th, so far, looks about waist to chest at most breaks.
Friday the 30th, so far, looks about chest high at south facing breaks and waist to chest at west facing spots.
Saturday the 31st, so far, looks about chest high at south facing breaks and waist high at west facing spots.
Sunday the 1st, so far, looks about chest to head high at south facing spots.
Weather Outlook:
Today (Tuesday the 20th) this cut-off low is approaching SoCal, which will bring rain Wednesday into Thursday (model by NOAA MAG):
Most models show rain arriving Wednesday in SB by 9:00 AM; VC mid to late morning; LA early to mid afternoon; OC late afternoon or early evening; and SD sometime in the evening. Rain should then fall off and on into Thursday early afternoon. Rain totals are expected to run 0.5-1.0" around most of the coast.
Note there is a chance for thunderstorms with this event as the convective parameters (CAPE) show low to medium potential for atmospheric instability — about 750 J/kg, which is near the 1000 J/kg threshold. This raises the chance for waterspouts as well.
Friday the 23rd should see the low move east as weather clears. A light offshore flow should develop Saturday the 24th for at least a few days of clearer skies with slightly warmer temps. High pressure should stick around to some degree early next week. Models hint at a trough of low pressure near SoCal later next week, with some models showing rain potential either Saturday the 31st of Sunday the 1st. Chances for that seem low right now but I'll keep an eye on it.
Taking all of this into account, here's how I'm calling SoCal beach weather for the next few days:
Today (Tuesday the 20th) should see a thin AM marine layer with a midmorning burn-off and max beach temps in the low 70s.
Wednesday the 21st should see rain progress from north to south during the day: SB by 9:00 AM; VC mid to late morning; LA early to mid afternoon; OC late afternoon or early evening; and SD sometime in the evening. Skies will cloud up before then. Max beach temps should reach the upper 60s.
Thursday the 22nd may see rain in the morning, clearing by early to mid afternoon. Max beach temps should reach the upper 60s.
Friday the 23rd should see spotty AM marine layer with clearing during the morning and max beach temps in the upper 60s.
Saturday the 24th should see a thin marine layer with quick AM burn-off and max beach temps in the mid 70s.
Sunday the 25th should see little to no marine layer, rapid burn-off where it does form, and max beach temps in the mid to upper 70s.
Wind Outlook:
Winds
at 6:00 AM were calm to lightly offshore along much of the coast. Onshores are expected this afternoon to 10 mph, mostly from the WSW.
Wednesday the 21st should see ESE winds in the morning 4-8 mph, burning more southerly by the afternoon, topping out at 8-12 mph during the afternoon.
Thursday the 22nd should see AM light and variables with an onshore element and afternoon onshores 15-20 mph.
Friday the 23rd should see AM light and variables and afternoon onshores 10-15 mph.
Saturday the 24th should see AM offshores to 10 mph and afternoon onshores 10-15 mph.
Sunday the 25th should see AM offshores to 10 mph and afternoon onshores 10-15 mph.
Until my next report (Thursday), take care, be safe, and smile in the lineup!
