SoCal Forecast
Updated most Sundays, Tuesdays, and Thursdays

Thursday 5/14/26 6:45 AM
By Nathan Cool

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At a glance:
Today (Thursday the 14th) we have a moderate mix of NW and SW ground swells in SoCal. NW wind swell builds Friday the 15th, becoming significantly sized over the weekend. Moderately sized NW ground swell is due by Wednesday the 20th. Decent sized SW ground swell is being watched for the 24th-26th timeframe. More southern hemi is on the long range. And there's an official update today on this year's El Niño. Condition-wise: fair weather on tap; winds pick up short term; daylight tide levels are fair; water temps could drop in a couple days; and advisories are in effect.

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Current Conditions:
Early this morning, periods were primarily running 12 seconds from 290° and 14 seconds from 200°.

Most west facing breaks were running chest high on the better sets. South facing breaks were mostly waist high, bigger at SW exposed spots.

Buoys in the outer waters were running 7-9'. Nearshore buoys were running 2'.

Tide levels are swinging wide as we approach a New Moon Saturday the 16th. But typical for this time of year, the widest swings will be mostly outside of daylight hours. Today we have a 4' high around 8:30 AM, a 1' low around 2:00 PM, and a 6' high around 8:00 PM.

Water temps are fair for now but cooling is highly likely over the weekend from strong outer water winds causing upwelling. Currently, most of SD was running 64-67°. OC was more varied with Huntington 61°, Newport 64°, and San Clemente Pier 67°. LA was mostly 62-65°. For VC and SB, the USCG readings remain unavailable but Stearns Wharf reported 60° this morning.

Hazardous Condition Warnings: A significant wind and wind-swell event starting Friday the 15th and increasing over the weekend will create a number of hazards at the beaches, surf zone, and for mariners as well. Rip current risk will be highly elevated and mariners will encounter gale-force winds. The NWS has issued advisories as well for SB, VC, and LA here, and OC and SD here.

Surf Forecast:
Today (Thursday the 14th) moderate NW ground swell is filling into SoCal from this system that tracked southeast in the Gulf a couple days ago (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):

We're also seeing light southern hemisphere ground swell in the mix as one of a few pulses has arrived from storms that were riding this ideal northward bend in the southern jetstream about ten days ago (model by NOAA MAG):

While these ground swells will increase a bit Friday the 15th, it's wind swell that takes center stage as models have stayed the course with this very windy pattern you might recall from my earlier reports this week (model by UQAM):

Gusts are expected to reach 45 mph in the outer waters over the weekend from strong high pressure off the coast interacting with opposingly strong low pressure inland (white arrows). I popped a box over SoCal, where we can see winds will be strongest from LA north, which will also affect weather differently across the five coastal counties of SoCal. As for wind swell, this should whip up seas in the 18' range just west of the Channel Islands, so all five coastal counties can expect size to start increasing Friday the 15th to at least chest high at west facing breaks, building throughout the day; Saturday the 16th should run upwards of head high; and Sunday the 17th should run head high to 2' overhead at many west facing spots. Some standouts may see bigger waves at times on Sunday. Size should then back down to head high max Monday the 18th. This should be angled from a wide swath of 280-310° and periods a broad mix of 8-13 seconds. These winds should also induce upwelling this weekend, which has the potential to drop water temps to the mid to upper 50s over the weekend (page 145 in Wave by Wave). Also, hazards will abound with high rip current risk this weekend at the beaches and very hazardous conditions for mariners.

Other NW ground swells will come ashore when this wind swell peaks over the weekend (like this one), but they'll go unnoticed as they'd only produce chest max waves at west facing breaks Sunday the 17th. Wind swell will be much bigger and with high consistency.

Tuesday the 19th, as the wind swell backs off and southern hemi disappears, we should see light to moderate NW ground swell fill in, peaking Wednesday the 20th from this system (model from NOAA OPC):

With 25' seas from that location, SoCal's west facing breaks should run waist to chest Tuesday the 19th (building day) and then chest high Wednesday the 20th. Swell should be angled from 300° and periods 14 seconds. As this fades to waist high Thursday the 21st, minor southern hemisphere ground swell should come ashore to help south facing breaks with waist high waves.

Smaller surf is expected Friday the 22nd and Saturday the 23rd, knee to waist at most breaks.

Sunday the 24th is a turning point for southern hemisphere ground swell. Initially, swell should slowly fill in from a series of small-scaled storms being directed north near New Zealand from this trough of low pressure bulging the jetstream (model by NOAA MAG):

With each storm creating fetch with 20-25' seas, south facing breaks are looking at initially waist to chest high waves Sunday the 24th, angled from 210° and periods 14-15 seconds. And while other, similarly sized storms/swells would follow, they could be overshadowed by swell from this better looking storm on the 4-day (model by NOAA MAG):

ETA on that (so far) is Monday the 25th, which could produce chest+ sets at south facing breaks, angled from 195° and periods 17 seconds. However, that's the GFS model's take on it, which is the most bullish this morning. Other models top that out with smaller seas, resulting in waist to chest high waves with a slight delay in arrival. Even the ensembles are divided, but I'll be able to firm this up either way in my next report (Sunday).

Sunday the 31st or Monday the 1st (depending on the model) we could see SW ground swell from this system near New Zealand (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):

That's on the 9-day outlook, making it too early to call. Running the numbers this morning points to chest high sets at south facing breaks with swell angled from 205° and periods 17 seconds.

El Niño Update: NOAA issued their official, monthly El Niño report this morning, which sheds light on what we can expect from this year's El Niño. As you may recall from earlier reports this week, one of NOAA's well-trusted forecast models — the NCEP Coupled Forecast System (CFSv2) — has been showing potential for a "very strong" El Niño by the winter. That model has relaxed slightly this morning, but still impressive for this winter (model from NOAA CPC)

The thick dashed line shows the model mean, topping out slightly above 2.5°C anomalous for the winter (SON = September October November, OND = October November December, etc.). By comparison, the El Niño of 2015-16 measured 2.6°C, and the 1997-98 was 2.4°C. Earlier model runs pointed to this year's El Niño being 3°C, but now they're leaning toward 2.7°C, which would still be historic. But there is a great deal of uncertainty in the strength of this El Niño when taking all things into account (model from NOAA CPC):

As it stands right now, there is a 37% chance for a very strong El Niño, and a 30% chance for a strong El Niño, meaning there's 33% chance for a weak El Niño this winter. Strong-plus is the most likely, but this doesn't necessarily guarantee catastrophic weather or high surf. In fact, something I show in Surf, Flood, Fire & Mud is that it's often after a strong El Niño that we get the highest rain amounts (from neutral-Niño spans). So far though, we are looking at potential for heavy and more frequent NW swells this winter, preceded by potentially more tropical storm/swell activity this summer, especially since we also have a Marine Heat Wave near SoCal (image from NOAA PSL):

Water temps are anomalously warm from the tropics north into SoCal, which, when combined with warming from the developing El Niño could create ideal conditions for tropical cyclones this summer to track northward, sending more of their swell to SoCal. Conditions are quite different than prior years and ENSO cycles, but we're also in somewhat uncharted territory where questions remain; for instance, could these conditions guide the jetstream/storm-track south of SoCal instead of through our region? Will the Niño regions of the eastern Pacific reach the degrees some models predict? And what effect would a marine heat wave have on an El Niño?

There's a lot to monitor concerning waves and weather for SoCal in the coming weeks and months. But as long as I have your support then I can continue to keep an eye on the Pacific to keep you posted. Please remember this report is funded by reader donations and your help is essential to keep it alive.

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Here's a brief look at how the next few days are breaking down so far:

Friday the 15th looks about chest high at most spots but with size increasing throughout the day at west facing breaks from wind swell.

Saturday the 16th is expected to see NW wind swell in the chest to head high range at dawn, increasing throughout the day. Conditions are questionable with high hazard risk.

Sunday the 17th is expected to run head high to 2' overhead at west facing breaks from wind swell. Conditions are questionable with high hazard risk.

Monday the 18th looks about chest to head high at west facing breaks from wind swell. Conditions are questionable with high hazard risk.

Tuesday the 19th looks about chest max at west facing breaks and waist max at south facing spots.

Wednesday the 20th looks about chest high at west facing breaks and waist high at south facing spots.

Thursday the 21st, so far, looks about waist to chest at west facing breaks and waist high at south facing spots.

Friday the 22nd, so far, looks about waist max everywhere.

Saturday the 23rd, so far, looks about knee to waist everywhere. It's at this point in the forecast that NW swell drops from the forecast.

Sunday the 24th, so far, looks about waist high at south facing breaks.

Monday the 25th, so far, looks about chest high at south facing breaks.

Tuesday the 26th, so far, looks about chest+ at south facing spots.

 

Weather Outlook:
Today (Thursday the 14th) weak to moderate high pressure remains over SoCal as a weak to moderate thermal inversion is creating morning May Gray, but with burn-offs on tap at the coast. Inland heat has waned so the inversion is weaker, allowing surface moisture to eventually dissipate (most days, most spots). But the bigger issue is wind tied to this weekend's wind swell, which will affect SoCal weather over the next few days. Here's that model again to save you from scrolling (model by UQAM):

Along with this surface pattern, there will be an upper-level trough of low pressure pushing south into SoCal this weekend, which will cool the upper levels to weaken the inversion each morning. While that in itself should make for decently timed burn-offs, the wind will mix out the surface moisture early, making for one of those times when "if it's clear, then winds are near". But this won't be equally so across all five coastal counties. Since winds will be strongest from LA north, that's where clearing should occur earliest; in fact, OC and SD may see lingering marine layer at times in the forecast (I'll break that down in a sec). Wind strength at the coast correlates to clearing as well, and it does look windier from LA north (see Wind section below). Winds will be exceptionally strong in the outer waters with extremely hazardous conditions this weekend.

Once the wind-fest ends early next week, moderate high pressure should build into SoCal for fair weather starting Monday, more so by the middle of the week.

The next weather feature worth watching is this cut-off low that could affect SoCal weather by the end of next week (model by NOAA MAG):

Being mostly over land, this looks moisture starved with no measurable rain. Drizzle and/or windy conditions are possible, but this needs more monitoring.

Taking all of this into account, here's how I'm calling SoCal beach weather for the next few days:

Today (Thursday the 14th) should see AM marine layer dissipate by noon or early afternoon, and max beach temps in the mid 60s.

Friday the 15th should see AM marine layer dissipate by noon or early afternoon, but possibly sticking around south of LA later in the afternoon. Max beach temps should reach the mid 60s.

Saturday the 16th should see AM marine layer, burn-off late morning, and max beach temps in the mid to upper 60s.

Sunday the 17th should see a thin AM marine layer, thickest south of LA. Marine layer should dissipate quickly north of LA, later farther south. Marine layer may linger well into the afternoon in parts of OC, more so SD. Max beach temps should reach the mid 60s.

Monday the 18th, so far, is expected to see AM marine layer, but mostly from LA south, dissipating everywhere around noon. Max beach temps should reach the mid 60s.

Tuesday the 19th, so far, looks clear with little to no AM marine layer. Max beach temps should tease the 70° mark.

 

Wind Outlook:
Winds at 6:00 AM were light and variable most everywhere. Afternoon onshores should run 10-15 mph, possibly stronger at times mid to late afternoon north of LA.

Friday the 15th should see AM light and variables. Onshores should increase by noon and run 15 mph in the afternoon.

Saturday the 16th should see AM light and variables with an onshore element, increasing mid to late morning 10-15 mph, and then 15-20 mph in the afternoon. Winds may exceed 25 mph mid to late afternoon from LA north.

Sunday the 17th should see AM light and variables with an onshore element, increasing by noon to 15 mph, and then 15-20 mph in the afternoon.

 

Until my next report (Sunday), take care, be safe, and smile in the lineup!

—Nathan

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