SoCal Forecast
Updated most Sundays, Tuesdays, and Thursdays
Sunday 6/21/26 7:15 AM
By Nathan Cool
Surf Charts for SoCal
Rincon | Ventura, C-St. | County Line | Malibu | Hermosa | Huntington BeachTrestles | Old Mans | Oceanside | Beacons | Sunset Cliffs
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At a glance:
Today (Sunday the 21st) we have moderately sized southern hemisphere ground swell in SoCal. A decent sized SW ground swell is due Wednesday the 24th. Moderate southern hemi swells are due this coming weekend. NW swell may build over the weekend too. Another southern hemisphere ground swell is due by Wednesday the 1st. Tropical swell may follow. And a potentially good sized SW ground swell is being watched for 7/2. Condition-wise: earlier clearing shortly; winds stay moderate; tide levels are moderate; and water temps are fair.
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Current Conditions:
Early this morning, periods were primarily running 15 seconds from 185-210°.
Most south facing spots were running chest high with occasional head high pluses at standouts. Direct west facing breaks were mostly waist to chest.
Buoys in the outer waters were running 4-5'. Nearshore buoys were running 2.4-3.1'.
Tide levels are moderate for now. Today we have a 0.5' low around 9:30 AM, a 4.7' high around 4:30 PM, and a 1.8' low around 11:00 PM.
Water temps were averaging 67° in SD. OC was mostly 62-64°. LA was also hovering around 62-64°, although Zuma reported 57° yesterday. In VC, Channel Islands Harbor reported 61° this morning. SB Harbor reported 62° last night.
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Surf Forecast:
Today (Sunday the 21st) we're seeing SW ground swell from these low latitude storms that peaked about nine days ago (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
This should keep chest high waves going at south facing breaks Monday the 22nd, and then waist to chest Tuesday the 23rd. Swell should be mostly angled from 210° with periods 14-15 seconds Monday, and then 13-14 seconds Tuesday.
Wednesday the 24th should see the next SW ground swell from this system that drifted northward off Antarctica last week (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
That should produce chest high waves on the average sets at south facing breaks, but up to head high at standouts. Swell should be angled from 205° and periods 17-18 seconds. This swell should continue at chest to at times head high Thursday the 25th, and then chest high Friday the 26th.
Saturday the 27th (building day) into Sunday the 28th (peak) should see SW ground swell from this system that passed south of New Zealand a few days ago (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
That wasn't a great course for SoCal swell. But with 30-35' seas it should produce chest max sets at south facing breaks, angled from 215° and periods 18 seconds. This swell should continue Monday the 29th. When this southern hemi arrives, we might see NW swell in the mix as this pattern develops by the weekend (model by NOAA MAG):
Circled in red is a trough of low pressure that would push south, kicking up enough wind to generate wind swell up to chest high at west facing breaks Sunday the 28th (building Saturday the 27th). The yellow arrow points to a low in that trough, which is forecast to kick up fetch in the Gulf of Alaska later this week, which would add ground swell to the mix. None of this looks any greater than chest max at west facing breaks Sunday the 28th, angled mostly from 310°. The wind swell would have periods 6-9 seconds, and ground swell 11 seconds. Still, southerly ground swell should be slightly better sized at south facing breaks this coming weekend. In any case, both the southern hemi and NW activity should back down to around waist high Monday the 29th. BTW: the area circled in green shows potential tropical storms, one of which could bring us southerly swell a few days later, which I'll get to in sec. But first...
Tuesday the 30th (building day) into Wednesday the 1st (peak) should see moderately sized southern hemisphere ground swell from these two storms peaking today (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
ETA into SoCal is the same for both as storm #1, although being farther away, has longer periods than storm #2 (see page 41). All told, south facing breaks should see chest high sets by Wednesday the 1st (building Tuesday the 30th) with swell angled from 210° and 190° and periods 17-18 seconds.
Thursday the 2nd, as the southern hemi swell continues, we might see tropical swell in the mix from the activity mentioned earlier, shown here on the 10-day outlook (model by NOAA MAG):
The storm pointed to by that red arrow is the system of interest as it would get northward guidance from a large, clockwise-swirling area of high pressure (blue circle). Water temps remain warmer than normal off the coast of Baja, which would provide fuel for that cyclone. So given the high pressure guidance, this is well within the realm of possibility. Still, this is 10 days out and models have teased the forecast the past couple weeks with various scenarios. Waffling back to the side of optimism, those earlier projections were settling in on the same timeframe: tropical swell in SoCal around the beginning of July. It's too early to start working the numbers but I'll be watching this closely this week.
Tuesday the 7th (building day) into Wednesday the 8th is the next southern hemi swell on the models right now from this large system near New Zealand on the 8-day (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
With 40' seas on that course, SoCal's south facing breaks would be looking at head high sets, angled from 210° and periods 19 seconds. This one's still early in the game and needs more monitoring. But as long as I have your support then I can continue to keep an eye on the Pacific to keep you posted. Please remember this report is funded by reader donations and your help is needed to keep this report alive (see why here).
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Here's a brief look at how the next few days are breaking down so far:
Monday the 22nd looks about chest max at south facing breaks.
Tuesday the 23rd looks about waist to chest high at south facing spots.
Wednesday the 24th is expected to run chest to at times head high at south facing spots.
Thursday the 25th looks about chest to at times head high at south facing spots.
Friday the 26th looks about chest high at south facing spots.
Saturday the 27th looks about chest max at south facing breaks. Wind swell may build during the day, topping out at chest max at west facing breaks.
Sunday the 28th, so far, looks about chest max at south- and west-facing breaks.
Monday the 29th, so far, looks about waist to chest at most breaks.
Tuesday the 30th, so far, is expected to run chest high at south facing breaks.
Wednesday the 1st, so far, looks about chest high at south facing breaks.
Thursday the 2nd, so far, looks about chest max at south facing breaks. This is when tropical swell may come into the mix, which could also affect the next few days.
Friday the 3rd, so far, looks about waist to chest at south facing breaks; however, tropical swell potential needs more monitoring.
Saturday the 4th also hinges on tropical swell potential...I'll have more on that in my next report.
Weather Outlook:
Today (Sunday the 21st) the onshore flow is weakening as high pressure slowly builds to our east, moving toward our area, eventually settling into the 4-Corners region Tuesday the 23rd through Thursday the 26th. This should allow for earlier burn-offs over the next few days. The pattern shifts Friday the 26th into the weekend of the 27th-28th as this trough, associated with wind swell this coming weekend, pushes south to SoCal, shown here again to save you from scrolling (model by NOAA MAG):
Although that trough (red circle) would be pushing south into SoCal, the marine layer would be zero-sum as northerly winds in the outer waters could disrupt marine layer development, making for timely clearing. All the while, the thermal inversion (pages 131-134) would stay in lockstep at Δ5-10°F a mile above the coast, playing no major role in day-to-day differences in the marine layer influence despite cooler air temps from the trough later this week, into the weekend of the 27th-28th (as surface temps cool, so will upper-level temps).
That trough may not fully lift to the north until Tuesday the 30th, which is when high pressure should become well established over the American Southwest, which would not only result in warming and clearing, but also guidance for the potential tropical swell 7/2, also shown here to save the scroll (model by NOAA MAG):
Tropical moisture tends to put the kibosh on marine layer development, so swell or no swell, influx of moisture from that tropical activity could make for early clearing (or no marine layer) at SoCal beaches 7/2 through at least 7/4. I'll know more throughout the week as models refine their shorter range projections.
Taking all of this into account, here's how I'm calling SoCal beach weather for the next few days:
Today (Sunday the 21st) should see burn-off by noon and max beach temps in the mid to upper 60s.
Monday the 22nd should see AM marine layer, burn-off late morning or by noon, and max beach temps in the upper 60s.
Tuesday the 23rd should see AM marine layer burn-off mid to late morning and max beach temps around 70°.
Wednesday the 24th should see AM marine layer burn-off mid morning and max beach temps around 70°.
Thursday the 25th should see AM marine layer burn-off mid morning and max beach temps around 70°.
Friday the 26th should see AM marine layer burn-off mid morning and max beach temps around 70°.
Wind Outlook:
Winds
at 8:00 AM were light and variable most everywhere with a slight onshore element. Afternoon onshores should reach 15 mph.
Monday the 22nd should see AM light and variables with a slight onshore element and afternoon onshores 10-15 mph.
Tuesday the 23rd should see AM light and variables with a slight onshore element and afternoon onshores 10-15 mph.
Wednesday the 24th should see AM light and variables with a slight onshore element and afternoon onshores around 15 mph.
Until my next report (Tuesday), take care, be safe, and smile in the lineup!
