SoCal Forecast
Updated most Sundays, Tuesdays, and Thursdays
Thursday 7/23/26 6:50 AM
By Nathan Cool
Surf Charts for SoCal
Rincon | Ventura, C-St. | County Line | Malibu | Hermosa | Huntington BeachTrestles | Old Mans | Oceanside | Beacons | Sunset Cliffs
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At a glance:
Today (Thursday the 23rd) swell from Fausto has reached its peak in SoCal and will linger to a lesser degree Friday the 24th and Saturday the 25th. Moderate southern hemisphere ground swell is due Sunday the 26th. A better sized SW ground swell is due Tuesday the 28th, lasting for a few days. On the tail end of that we could see substantial swell from what will likely become Hurricane Genevieve, with sizable swell during the second half of next week. Two other potential hurricane swells are being watched for 8/6 and 8/10. Condition-wise: back to back heatwaves with tropical effects; winds relax after today; tide levels swing wider; and while water temps continued to climb, we may see some cooling over the next couple days.
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Current Conditions:
This afternoon, periods were a wide array of 7-15 seconds from 175-200°, almost entirely from Fausto.
Most south facing breaks were running chest to head high with overhead pluses at times at standouts; however there was some island shadowing around the Malibu region from the direct southerly portion of the incoming energy (page 81). Direct west facing breaks were mostly waist to chest, bigger at SW exposed spots.
Buoys in the outer waters were running 7-10'. Nearshore buoys were running 3.5' to upwards of 5'.
Tide levels swing wider over the next few days as we approach a Full Moon Wednesday the 29th. Today we have a 3' high around 8:00 AM that will barely budge to a slackwater low of 3' around 11:00 AM. The tide will then rise to over 5' around 6:00 PM.
Water temps were running 71-74° around most of SD, OC, and LA. In VC, Channel Islands Harbor reported 73° last night, and was up to 74° at one point yesterday. In SB, Stearns Wharf reported 72° this morning. Note there is a chance for some cooling Friday the 24th as outer water winds have caused upwelling in the outer waters (page 148) dropping outer water temps by as much as 8° over the past 24 hours. Cooling should not be that severe near the coast, and any that does occur should be short-lived.
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Surf Forecast:
Today (Thursday the 23rd) swell from Hurricane Fausto appears to have reached its peak in SoCal as we're now getting a wide array of swell angles (and periods) from Fausto's initial northwest but now westerly track, shown here from a couple days ago (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
Friday the 24th should see less southerly swell and more of the SW swell from the western course, which, having a greater angular spread (page 52) will result in smaller size, but well angled for SoCal. Size should run chest to head high at south facing breaks Friday the 24th, and then chest high Saturday the 25th, angled from 190-200° and periods 13-15 seconds (max).
Sunday the 26th, as Fausto's swell wanes, we should see moderate SW ground swell from this system that was hugging the low latitudes last week (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
That works out to chest high sets for south facing breaks but inconsistent with few waves per set and long lulls between sets. Swell should be angled from 210° and periods 19 seconds. This swell should continue Monday the 27th with similar size.
Tuesday the 28th should see a slight increase in southern hemisphere ground swell from this system that peaked near New Zealand a few days ago, travelling on a more wave-worthy course than its predecessor (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
That should produce sets running chest to head high at south facing breaks Tuesday the 28th, angled from 210° and periods 18 seconds. This swell should continue Wednesday the 29th and Thursday the 30th as that storm reformed near French Polynesia, sending similar sized waves our way. But it's around this time that we could see the next hurricane swell.
Wednesday the 29th could see swell initially build from what could become Hurricane Genevieve, likely peaking sometime Friday the 31st and/or Saturday the 1st. There are two schools of thought on the models this morning with this one having the most consensus (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
According to the NFCENS and ECMWF models, Genevieve would cross SoCal's Rubicon for hurricane swell past the southern tip of Baja. That would put initial swell into SoCal Wednesday the 29th but initially angled from a difficult 150° (page 45). For breaks that can work a steep SE angle, size would start out at head high or better as this swell fills in Wednesday the 29th and Thursday the 30th. But then as Genevieve enters our swell window, better-angled swell would be sent our way with south facing breaks running 2-4' overhead Friday the 31st and Saturday the 1st with swell angled from 170-180°. Periods would top out around 16 seconds. Two of three models agree on that today. The GFS model is the outlier this morning which is affecting the automated charts here on WaveCast (and potentially other websites) since GFS data is used to initialize these charts (at least here on WaveCast). The GFS shows Genevieve being a powerful storm, but one that would hug the coast of Baja with a slightly later arrival time. I'm sure models will align better on this over the next few days so I should be able to call it in my next report (Sunday).
Two more potential hurricanes are forecast on the extended long range: Hernan and Iselle (model by NOAA MAG):
Early ETAs are for 8/6 and 8/10, which is a few days later than models showed earlier this week. Nevertheless, conditions remain primed for more hurricane swells from two weather features that are present and expected to persist. The first feature is warmer than normal water temperatures from not just El Niño, but also a Marine Heat Wave (MHV) off Baja, stretching into SoCal (model from NOAA Coral Reef Watch):
There's a notable marine heat wave in the Gulf of Alaska, but the one off Baja — along with warm waters from El Niño — is providing fuel for hurricanes instead of turning them away from SoCal. The second feature is persistent high pressure that is — and will continue to be — positioned just right to swirl hurricanes northward from the high's clockwise spin (model by NOAA MAG):
It's the perfect setup for hurricanes to grow and travel well into the SoCal swell window for the long term. In fact, that model shows what to expect on 7/31 with a super strong high that should create another heatwave after our current one wanes. With 600dm over the 4-Corners, SoCal inland areas would cook as that 600dm mark signals intense heat, which should feel oppressive from the influx of tropical moisture swirled in by that high. As for swell, this all adds up to more hurricanes in the coming weeks. This all needs more monitoring, but as long as I have your support then I can continue to keep an eye on the Pacific to keep you posted. Please remember this report is funded by reader donations and your help is crucial to keep it alive (see why here).
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Here's a brief look at how the next few days are breaking down so far:
Friday the 24th should run chest to head high at south facing breaks.
Saturday the 25th looks about chest high at south facing breaks.
Sunday the 26th looks about chest high at south facing breaks.
Monday the 27th looks about chest high at south facing breaks.
Tuesday the 28th looks about chest to head high at south facing spots.
Wednesday the 29th looks about chest to head high at south facing spots, although hurricane swell may start to fill in.
Thursday the 30th, so far, is expected to run head high+ at south facing breaks that can work a steep SE angle.
Friday the 31st, so far, looks about 2-4' overhead at south facing breaks.
Saturday the 1st, so far, looks about 2-4' overhead at south facing breaks.
Sunday the 2nd, so far, looks about head high+ at south facing breaks.
Weather Outlook:
Today (Thursday the 23rd) strong winds in the outer waters north of LA are temporarily disrupting marine layer development this morning, which we can see from space around 7:30 AM (image from NOAA GOES):
The 35 mph winds west of the Channel Islands have been stirring up the surface air enough to keep skies clear from LA north. But at the same time, these winds created a weak eddy farther south with marine layer visible over OC and SD. So despite a strong, Δ15°F inversion this morning (page 131), we should see clear skies for the rest of the day from LA north with clearing later this morning farther south.
Winds weaken after today as the trough that subsumed Elida weakens and high pressure stays dominant over the U.S. This high will wax and wane to varying degrees until at least 8/2 when models show the high breaking down and a trough of low pressure pushing south toward SoCal. Until then, a large area of high pressure will sit over a good portion of the American West, shown here again for late next week to save you from scrolling (model by NOAA MAG):
With water temps being exceptionally warm right now, the inversion should stay in lock-step with surface air temps at the beach also staying warm; thus, the inversion should weaken after today to about Δ10°F and stay that way through next week. This alone equates to thin marine layer with timely burn-offs, and the influx of tropical moisture through the forecast should also inhibit marine layer development.
Models continue to tease the forecast with tropical rain in OC and SD, possibly sometime late Sunday the 26th into Monday the 27th and again Thursday the 30th. Very few models show that and those that do keep it mostly near the mountains, barely reaching the coast. So I'd call precip a very, very low chance scenario through the forecast.
TL;DR: We're in for a span of warm air temps at the coast, cooking inland. Marine layer should be minimal with timely burn-offs and tropical clouds drifting overhead at times.
Taking all of this into account, here's how I'm calling SoCal beach weather for the next few days:
Today (Thursday the 23rd) should burn-off everywhere by mid morning. Beach max temps should reach the mid to upper 70s.
Friday the 24th should see AM marine layer with a burn-off mid morning followed by some tropical clouds overhead. Beach max temps should reach the mid to upper 70s.
Saturday the 25th should see AM marine layer with a burn-off mid morning and max beach temps in the mid to upper 70s.
Sunday the 26th should see AM marine layer with a burn-off mid morning and max beach temps in the mid to upper 70s.
Monday the 27th should see AM marine layer with a burn-off mid morning and max beach temps in the mid to upper 70s.
Tuesday the 28th should see AM marine layer with a burn-off mid morning followed by tropical clouds building throughout the morning, and max beach temps in the mid to upper 70s.
Wind Outlook:
Winds
at 7:00 AM were light to calm from LA north and SE 3-5 mph farther south. Onshores should pick up by noon 8-12 mph and run 15-20 mph by early to mid afternoon.
Friday the 24th should see AM light and variables with afternoon onshores 7-11 mph.
Saturday the 25th should see AM light and variables with afternoon onshores 7-11 mph.
Sunday the 26th should see AM light and variables with afternoon onshores 7-11 mph.
Until my next report (Sunday), take care, be safe, and smile in the lineup!
