SoCal Forecast
Updated most Sundays, Tuesdays, and Thursdays
Tuesday 8/18/26 6:30 AM
By Nathan Cool
Surf Charts for SoCal
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At a glance:
Today (Tuesday the 18th) we have a light mix of SW ground swell and NW wind swell in SoCal. Southerly swell gets a slight boost Wednesday the 19th. A moderate SW ground swell is due Sunday the 23rd, lasting for a few days. Decent sized southern hemi swell is becoming likely for the 29th. Tropical swell potential for the 27th has been downgraded but more is being monitored for 9/2. Condition-wise: fair weather ahead; winds diminish shortly; tide levels are moderate; and water temps have cooled temporarily.
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Current Conditions:
Early this morning, periods were primarily running 14 seconds from 200° and 6-8 seconds from 300-310°.
Most breaks were running waist high with occasional pluses at standouts.
Buoys in the outer waters were running 6-7'. Nearshore buoys were running 2.2-3.2'.
Tide levels are becoming moderate. Today we have a 2' low around 7:00 AM, a near 5' high around 2:00 PM, and a 1.5' low around 9:30 PM.
Water temps have cooled slightly from upwelling (page 148). Water temps should warm again this weekend or early next week. Water temps were running 67-71° around most of SD, OC, and LA. In VC, Channel Islands Harbor reported 68° this morning. In SB, Stearns Wharf reported 68°.
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Surf Forecast:
Today (Tuesday the 18th) is a fairly small day in the SoCal surf zone but we should see slight improvement tomorrow as SW ground swell comes ashore from this system that was near New Zealand about nine days ago (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):
With just 25' seas, most south facing breaks are looking at waist high sets with occasional chest high pluses at standouts Wednesday the 19th. Swell should be angled from 205° and periods 15 seconds. This swell should continue with similar size Thursday the 20th and dip Friday the 21st to waist max.
Saturday the 22nd (building day) into Sunday the 23rd (peak) should see SW ground swell from this system that took a favorable northward course off Antarctica about a week ago (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):
That's a great course for SoCal swell. But with seas only 25', most south facing breaks are looking at waist to chest high sets by Sunday the 23rd (smaller Saturday the 22nd). Swell should be angled from 195° and periods 15 seconds. Another fetch running behind that system should keep waist to chest high waves going Monday the 24th and Tuesday the 25th, dropping to waist max Wednesday the 26th.
Thursday the 27th still holds promise of tropical swell but rays of surfable hope are dim. Models today show the next tropical storm being fairly weak, but with a few different courses it could take (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):
Most models put seas in the 20' range but the course makes the difference. The low-end GFS works out to waist max at south facing breaks. The ECMWF is a bit better, and the CMC would be much better at chest+ (or more). The middle-ground ECMWF jives with most ensembles, so there is still hope for chest high-ish surf at south facing breaks on the 27th, but I wouldn't count on that right now. Swell would be angled, btw, from 180° with periods 13 seconds. This is still seven days out so models should start to align better over the next few days so I can work the numbers with more confidence.
Saturday the 29th has a very good chance of seeing decent sized southern hemisphere ground swell as the 4-day models are in agreement (so far) on this system taking a high latitude course northward (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):
That would put most south facing breaks into chest to head high sets Saturday the 29th, angled from 200° with periods 17 seconds. Earlier activity near New Zealand would arrive at the same time with waist high waves in the mix from 210°. That higher latitude system though would be dominant and bigger, but I'll need a couple more days to firm that up.
Wednesday the 2nd, so far, holds potential for tropical swell, but with a twist shown on this 15-day model (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):
The red arrow shows a potential hurricane that could drift nicely into the SoCal swell window, which holds potential for sets running a few feet overhead at south facing breaks. The blue arrow shows the earlier tropical storm — for swell ETA 8/27 — retrograding back to the west coast. That east-bound storm wouldn't bring much, if any swell, but it might bring clouds or winds, and less likely precip to SoCal or the Central Coast. All of this is in crystal ball territory, being far too early to take seriously right now; however, there are reasons for optimism.
The beginning of September remains on track for increased tropical cyclone potential in the eastern Pacific as the MJO should return by then (see pages 85-88 in Surf, Flood, Fire & Mud). With warmer than normal waters from El Niño and a marine heat wave off Mexico, Baja, and SoCal, any tropical storms that do form will have plenty of fuel and a less abated path to their north. So climate-wise, all the ingredients come together by September. Meteorologically though it's too early to start calling events.
All of this needs a lot more monitoring. But as long as I have your support then I can continue to keep an eye on the Pacific to keep you posted. Please remember this report is funded by reader donations and your help is crucial to keep it alive (see why here).
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Here's a brief look at how the next few days are breaking down so far:
Wednesday the 19th looks about waist to at times chest high at south facing breaks and waist+ at west facing spots.
Thursday the 20th looks about waist to at times chest high at south facing breaks and waist high at west facing spots.
Friday the 21st looks about waist high at most spots.
Saturday the 22nd should see southern hemi swell fill in, starting out at waist high early at south facing breaks, building later in the day.
Sunday the 23rd looks about chest max at south facing spots.
Monday the 24th looks about chest max at south facing spots.
Tuesday the 25th looks about chest max at south facing spots.
Wednesday the 26th, so far, is expected to run waist high at south facing spots.
Thursday the 27th, so far, looks about waist high at south facing breaks.
Friday the 28th, so far, looks about waist high at south facing breaks.
Saturday the 29th, so far, could see chest to head high sets at south facing breaks.
Sunday the 30th, so far, could see chest to head high sets at south facing breaks.
Monday the 31st, so far, looks about chest max at south facing spots.
Tuesday the 1st, so far, looks about waist high at south facing spots.
Wednesday the 2nd or Thursday the 3rd could see the next tropical swell. I'll have more on that in my next report.
Weather Outlook:
Today (Tuesday the 18th) high pressure has made its way back to the 4-Corners region, spreading into SoCal. But low pressure off the coast is creating some temporary issues (model by NOAA MAG):
A 597 dm high is fairly strong, yet fairly normal for mid August. This will warm temps over the next couple days, but more so inland as coastal temps remain regulated by the typical onshore flow (see illustration on page 132). That onshore flow is getting a slight boost from the low off the coast, but its more salient effect is wind as it created a northerly gradient between it and the 4-Corners high (pages 113-115). That gradient is peaking today, which also makes today the last day for stronger than normal winds, especially in the outer waters. With winds diminishing over the next few days, upwelling wanes, which should warm water temps, and slightly weaken the onshore flow. Meanwhile the thermal inversion should remain moderate so marine layer should have timely burn-offs.
After the high peaks over the 4-Corners on Friday, it should slide slowly to the east Saturday the 22nd as low pressure troughing pushes toward SoCal from the Gulf of Alaska. This should cool air temps a bit and may increase the onshore flow and subsequent marine layer this weekend into early next.
The only other notable weather feature on the models today is potential for light precip in SD south county late Sunday the 23rd into Monday the 24th as tropical moisture is drawn in from the south. It wouldn't be much, and isolated farther inland and nearer to the Mexico border with only a very slight chance of reaching the coast.
Taking all of this into account, here's how I'm calling SoCal beach weather for the next few days:
Today (Tuesday the 18th) should see AM marine layer, burn-off by mid to late morning, high clouds passing overhead at times during the day, and beach max temps in the mid 70s.
Wednesday the 19th should see AM marine layer, burn-off midmorning, scattered high clouds off and on throughout the day, and beach max temps in the mid 70s.
Thursday the 20th should see AM marine layer, burn-off mid to late morning, scattered high clouds off and on throughout the day, and beach max temps in the mid 70s.
Friday the 21st should see AM marine layer, burn-off late morning, some scattered high clouds, and max beach temps in the low to mid 70s.
Saturday the 22nd, so far, is expected to see AM marine layer, mid to late AM burn-off and max beach temps in the mid 70s.
Sunday the 23rd, so far, is expected to see AM marine layer, early AM burn-off and max beach temps in the mid 70s.
Wind Outlook:
Winds
at 7:00 AM were light to calm most everywhere. Onshores should pick up throughout the morning, reaching 10 mph by noon and then 15 mph early to mid afternoon, with stronger gusts at times from LA north mid afternoon.
Wednesday the 19th should see AM light and variables with afternoon onshores 10-15 mph.
Thursday the 20th should see AM light and variables with afternoon onshores 8-12 mph.
Friday the 21st should see AM light and variables with afternoon onshores 8-12 mph.
Until my next report (Thursday), take care, be safe, and smile in the lineup!
