SoCal Forecast
Updated most Sundays, Tuesdays, and Thursdays
Tuesday 7/14/26 6:00 AM
By Nathan Cool
Surf Charts for SoCal
Rincon | Ventura, C-St. | County Line | Malibu | Hermosa | Huntington BeachTrestles | Old Mans | Oceanside | Beacons | Sunset Cliffs
Subscribe to be notified:
Get notified when this report is updated.
At a glance:
Today (Tuesday the 14th) we have a light mix of SW ground swell and NW wind swell in SoCal. Wind swell picks up a bit over the next couple days. Hurricane swell is likely by Sunday the 19th. Moderate southern hemi is due shortly after. Another hurricane swell is being watched for the 22nd-24th timeframe. Moderate southern hemi is likely for the 27th. And another hurricane swell is being monitored for the 30th. Condition-wise: minimal marine layer for a few days with increasing temps; precip chances tease the forecast; winds could be problematic at times; the tide is swinging wide; and water temps are on the warm side.
|
|
|
Current Conditions:
Early this morning, periods were primarily running 14 seconds from 185° and 9 seconds from 315°.
Most south facing breaks were running waist to at times chest high. Direct west facing spots were mostly waist max.
Buoys in the outer waters were running 4'. Nearshore buoys were running 1.5-2.2'.
Tide levels are swinging wide from today's New Moon. Today we have a -1.8' low around 4:30 AM, a 4' high around 11:00 AM, a 2' low around 3:30 PM, and a 7'+ high around 10:00 PM. The evening high tide could cause coastal flooding and the NWS has issued warnings as well for SB, VC, and LA here, and OC and SD here.
Water temps were running 70-73° around most of SD. OC was more varied with Huntington Beach reporting 64° yesterday, Newport was 66°, and the usually-warmer San Clemente Pier reported 72°. LA was mostly 67-71°. In VC, Channel Islands Harbor reported 64° last night. In SB, Stearns Wharf reported 63° this morning.
New Release: Wave By Wave
Take a journey into the hidden forces behind every swell and the ocean's connection to our human experience. After more than 30 years of tracking storms across the Pacific, Nathan Cool's latest book, Wave By Wave, takes you beyond basic swell prediction and into the deeper story behind the surf. From distant, powerful storms to the moment a wave breaks, you'll learn how to read the ocean with confidence and discover how these rhythmic forces bind us to the sea with a deeper sense of meaning.
Get the Book
Surf Forecast:
Today (Tuesday the 14th) the forecast remains dominated by a tropical pattern with three hurricane swells in the forecast, along with variations in our weather and winds for a little while. We can see the main components of this pattern from space this morning (image from NOAA GOES):
Tropical clouds obscure much of the west and along the periphery of a large, clockwise spinning high pressure system centered over the U.S. That high will provide northward guidance for hurricane swells in the forecast, including one that isn't officially a hurricane as of early this morning — but is in all but name. Warmer than normal waters are helping to fuel the hurricanes in the forecast while affecting SoCal weather too. And while there are southern hemisphere ground swells in the forecast, the bigger days will be from the tropics.
Today we're seeing diminishing SW ground swell as NW wind swell slowly increases from a low pressure system passing to our north. NW wind swell should increase a bit Wednesday the 15th to about waist+ at west facing breaks, peaking Thursday the 16th at waist to chest high at west facing breaks.
Thursday the 16th, along with the NW wind swell, we should also see spotty, intermittent SW ground swell from this storm you might recall from earlier reports that traveled northeast in the Tasman Sea (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
Being 7,400 miles from SoCal means a good deal of energy was lost from distance decay, along with energy soaked up by numerous islands in the South Pacific. This should result in waist to chest high waves at south facing breaks Thursday the 16th but with very long lulls between sets and very few waves per set. Swell should be angled from 230° with periods 15 seconds.
Friday the 17th will likely be a smaller, in-between day before the first of three hurricane swells comes ashore.
Late Saturday the 18th into Sunday the 19th is the new ETA for hurricane swell, which was slated a day or two earlier from previous model runs. This morning's models are in fair agreement on this hurricane taking this course, which should still provide decently sized southerly swell for SoCal's south facing spots (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
We're now just three days out so confidence is higher. Seas though have been downgraded from initially 40' to now 25' and on a course with a moderate loss from angular decay (page 52). Running the numbers this morning, this is now expected to run head high+ at south facing breaks by Sunday the 19th, angled from 185° and periods 15 seconds. This storm, btw, will likely be named Elida but the NHC hasn't identified it as a tropical depression or storm yet, let alone given it a name — I'm sure that will change later today. In any case, this swell will likely back off to chest to head high at south facing breaks Monday the 20th.
Tuesday the 21st, as hurricane lingers at chest max, we should also see southern hemisphere ground swell fill in, peaking Wednesday the 22nd from this system near French Polynesia (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
With 30' seas on that course, south facing breaks are looking at chest high sets with swell angled from 200° and periods 16-17 seconds. So all told, with this southern hemi and fading hurricane swell, most south facing breaks are expected to run chest high Tuesday the 21st and Wednesday the 22nd. However, this is the time when the next hurricane swell could fill into SoCal.
Late Tuesday the 21st, building Wednesday the 22nd and peaking Thursday the 23rd we could see strong hurricane swell from this storm on the 7-day models (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
All models are aligned so far, but such was the case with soon-to-be Elida. Working off the current models, this one is expected to pump up 35-40' seas, which would produce sets running 3-4' overhead at most south facing breaks. Top-end calculations indicate DOH sets. Models also show this system being self-sustained for a couple days, so this hurricane swell could continue Friday the 24th before slowly fading Saturday the 25th, more so Sunday the 26th. Swell would likely be angled from 175° and periods 18 seconds. But we're very early in the game and I need more time to monitor this.
Monday the 27th will likely see moderate SW ground swell from this system hugging the low latitudes on the 3-day models (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
Size is coming in at chest high for south facing breaks but highly inconsistent with few waves per set and long lulls between sets. Swell would be angled from 210° and periods 18 seconds.
Thursday the 30th is the current ETA for the next hurricane swell as the extended long range models show a storm taking the same course as its predecessors (model by NOAA MAG):
That's too far out to call but I popped a red pin in my charts this morning nonetheless as the pattern is primed for more hurricane activity over the next couple months, especially given how abnormally warm water temps are right now from not just El Niño but a marine heatwave (MHW) near our area (model from NOAA Coral Reef Watch):
With plenty of warm-water fuel, hurricane formation will likely be more frequent. High pressure guidance like we're seeing now is expected to stay in place (to varying degrees) through the forecast. So there's good reason to believe that more hurricane swells will ping the SoCal surf radar over the coming weeks. There's a lot to monitor right now, but as long as I have your support then I can continue to keep an eye on the Pacific to keep you posted. Please remember this report is funded by reader donations and your help is essential to keep it alive (see why here).
|
|
|
Here's a brief look at how the next few days are breaking down so far:
Wednesday the 15th looks about waist high at most spots.
Thursday the 16th looks about waist high at south facing spots with some chest high pluses. West facing breaks should run waist high.
Friday the 17th looks about waist high everywhere.
Saturday the 18th, so far, is expected to see hurricane swell build later in the day.
Sunday the 19th, so far, is expected to run head high+ at south facing breaks from hurricane swell.
Monday the 20th, so far, looks about head high at south facing breaks.
Tuesday the 21st, so far, looks about chest high at south facing breaks.
Wednesday the 22nd, so far, looks about chest high at south facing breaks; however, there is a chance for hurricane swell to fill in, possibly well overhead by midday.
Thursday the 23rd, so far, looks about 3-4' overhead at south facing breaks from hurricane swell.
Friday the 24th, so far, looks about 3-4' overhead at south facing spots from hurricane swell.
Saturday the 25th, so far, looks about 1-2' overhead at south facing spots from hurricane swell.
Weather Outlook:
Today (Tuesday the 14th) the tropical heatwave pattern is in full swing as seen from space this morning, shown here again to save you from scrolling (image from NOAA GOES):
That massive, clockwise spinning high in the center of the U.S. is swirling tropical moisture into SoCal from its southern and westerly fringe. The tropical moisture is acting like a heat blanket in SoCal, keeping overnight low temps warm. Surface air temps are also on the warm side from warmer than normal waters off SoCal, all of which is putting the kibosh on the thermal inversion (page 131), which is nil at the moment; thus, no major marine layer development for a few days.
As for heat, we'll have plenty but not so much from the strength of the CONUS high since while impressive over the center of the U.S. (597dm) it's weaker over SoCal (592dm). Instead, hot air will develop more so over SoCal from compressional heating (page 143) as the north-south gradients will run 3mb offshore Wednesday the 15th and Thursday the 16th, which should be the hottest days in the forecast.
A wildcard in the forecast is what the proximity of the forecast hurricane would do to SoCal weather as it could get rather close to SoCal, shown here predawn Sunday the 19th (model from ECMWF):
That cloud-cover model shows the hurricane in the bottom left. The dots of magenta and blue over SoCal could mean precip, but highly unlikely at the coast from this first hurricane. However, the hurricane's counterclockwise spin could affect wind fields near SoCal, which could stir in gusty southerly winds at times Friday the 17th through Sunday the 19th.
The second hurricane in the forecast could bring precip to SoCal Wednesday the 22nd and/or Thursday the 23rd. More models are onboard with that, but it's too early to gauge precip probability right now.
Taking all of this into account, here's how I'm calling SoCal beach weather for the next few days:
Today (Tuesday the 14th) should see little to no marine layer with scattered tropical clouds at times and max beach temps in the mid 70s.
Wednesday the 15th should see little to no marine layer, tropical clouds at times, and max beach temps in the upper 70s.
Thursday the 16th should see little to no marine layer with max beach temps in the upper 70s.
Friday the 17th should see AM marine layer with an early morning burn-off. Max beach temps should reach the mid 70s.
Saturday the 18th should see AM marine layer with a burn-off mid to late morning and max beach temps in the low to mid 70s.
Sunday the 19th should see thin AM marine layer with an early burn-off, some tropical clouds, and max beach temps in the low to mid 70s.
Wind Outlook:
Winds
at 7:00 AM were light and variable most everywhere. Onshores should pick up by noon to 10 mph and run 10-15 mph in the afternoon.
Wednesday the 15th should see AM light and variables with a slight onshore element and afternoon onshores 10-15 mph.
Thursday the 16th should see AM light and variables and afternoon onshores 8-12 mph.
Friday the 17th should see light southerlies in the morning 3-7 mph, picking up throughout the morning. Southerly winds could run 15 mph by noon with 20 mph gusts.
Until my next report (Thursday), take care, be safe, and smile in the lineup!
