SoCal Forecast
Updated most Sundays, Tuesdays, and Thursdays
Sunday 7/5/26 6:15 AM
By Nathan Cool
Surf Charts for SoCal
Rincon | Ventura, C-St. | County Line | Malibu | Hermosa | Huntington BeachTrestles | Old Mans | Oceanside | Beacons | Sunset Cliffs
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At a glance:
Today (Sunday the 5th) we have moderately sized southern hemisphere ground swell in SoCal. Another SW ground swell is due by Wednesday the 8th along with NW wind swell in the mix. Although lighter southern hemis follow, there is a growing chance for substantial hurricane swell two weeks from now. Condition-wise: marine layer thins this week; tropical rain is in the forecast; winds stronger some days; tide levels are moderate; and water temps are up in some spots.
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Current Conditions:
Early this morning, periods were primarily running 14-18 seconds from 200-210°.
Most south facing breaks were running waist to chest high. Direct west facing spots were mostly waist high.
Buoys in the outer waters were running 5'. Nearshore buoys were averaging 2'.
Tide levels are running at moderate levels right now. Today we have a 0.5' low around 7:30 AM, a 4' high around 2:30 PM, and a 2.5' low around 8:00 PM.
Water temps were running 68-71° around most of SD. OC was varied with water temps yesterday running 63° in Huntington Beach, 65° in Newport, and 69° at San Clemente Pier. LA was mostly 66-70°, although the usually-cooler Zuma reported 63° at one point yesterday. In VC, Channel Islands Harbor reported 67° last night. In SB, Stearns Wharf reported 61° this morning.
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Surf Forecast:
Today (Sunday the 5th) we're seeing SW ground swell from an Antarctic system that formed about two weeks ago. A lower latitude storm that formed behind it should keep waist to chest high waves going at south facing breaks Sunday the Monday the 6th as well. There's also minor background energy from TS Douglas, but southern hemi swell is dominant.
Tuesday the 7th (building quickly) into Wednesday the 8th should see SW ground swell from this system that peaked about a week ago near New Zealand (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
That system had moderate loss from its angular spread (page 52), so calculations work out to chest+ swell at south facing breaks by Wednesday the 8th, angled from 210° and periods 19 seconds. Standouts may see some head high pluses out of this Wednesday the 8th and Thursday the 9th. In fact, Thursday the 9th should see an additional southern hemisphere swell in the mix from other activity that formed east of that storm, which could create pluses from constructive interference (page 84), making Thursday the 9th the day most likely to see occasional head high pluses at south facing spots.
Late Tuesday the 7th into Wednesday the 8th, along with southern hemisphere ground swell, we should see NW wind swell in the mix as this pattern develops at the surface in the wake of a passing storm in the PNW (model by UQAM):
A strong gradient should form between that strong high off the coast and inland low (red arrows), creating strong winds in the outer waters. The deep brown areas on that model show winds gusting to 35 mph west of the Channel Islands, which should stir up seas in the 10' range. At the coast, we'll get a mere fraction of that as energy diffracts into the SoCal Bight (page 77). That which works out to chest high wind swell waves at west facing breaks Wednesday the 8th and Thursday the 9th, angled from the wind-swell-usual ≥300° and periods 7-10 seconds. South facing breaks should do better from the southern hemi swell and have better wave shape too. Some of this wind swell will inevitably wrap into south facing spots but it shouldn't be enough to have a major impact on conditions.
The wind swell should be short-lived, backing down to waist high Friday the 10th. South facing breaks look better at chest high from lingering southern hemisphere ground swell. Saturday the 11th should run chest high at south facing breaks as well.
Sunday the 12th into Monday the 13th should see light SW ground swell from this system that drifted north off Antarctica, south of Pitcairn yesterday (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
With just 25' seas that should produce waist high waves at south facing breaks Sunday the 12th and Monday the 13th, angled from 185° and periods 15-16 seconds.
Thursday the 16th should see spotty, intermittent SW ground swell from this storm you might recall from last week's reports that traveled northeast in the Tasman Sea (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
That's a good 7,400 miles from SoCal so a good deal of energy will be lost as swell travels to SoCal. Energy will also get soaked up by numerous islands in the South Pacific. So all told, Thursday the 16th is expected to see waist to chest high waves at south facing breaks, but with very long lulls between sets and very few waves per set. Long wait times should be expected. Swell should be angled from 230° with periods 15 seconds. Minor swell should linger Friday the 17th and Saturday the 18th before something much bigger could come ashore.
Sunday the 19th is the new ETA for potential hurricane swell, which models today have upgraded (model by NOAA MAG):
Even though this is on the 300-hour models, two things are aligning well to create a wave-worthy hurricane, pointed to by that red arrow: (1) water temps remain warmer than normal off Baja to help fuel that hurricane and (2) heatwave high pressure over the U.S. (blue arrow) would guide this storm northward from the high's clockwise spin. Early estimates put seas in the 30' range, which would be enough to create surf running a couple feet overhead at south facing breaks. HOWEVER, it's far too early right now to start working the numbers. This earned a yellow pin in my charts this morning since models over the past week continually push this system further out in time, and the upgrade is new. It needs a lot more monitoring, but as long as I have your support then I can continue to keep an eye on the Pacific to keep you posted. Please remember this report is funded by reader donations and your help is crucial to keep this report alive (see why here).
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Here's a brief look at how the next few days are breaking down so far:
Monday the 6th looks about waist to chest high at south facing breaks and waist high at west facing breaks.
Tuesday the 7th is expected to run chest high at south facing breaks.
Wednesday the 8th is expected to run chest+ at south facing spots. West facing breaks should run chest high.
Thursday the 9th looks about chest+ at south facing breaks with occasional head high pluses at standouts. West facing breaks should run chest high.
Friday the 10th looks about chest high at south facing breaks and waist to chest high west facing spots.
Saturday the 11th looks about chest high at south facing spots and waist high at west facing spots.
Sunday the 12th looks about waist to chest at south facing breaks.
Monday the 13th looks about waist to at times chest high at south facing breaks.
Tuesday the 14th, so far, looks about waist high at south facing spots.
Wednesday the 15th, so far, looks about waist high at south facing spots.
Thursday the 16th, so far, looks about waist high at south facing spots with rare chest high pluses.
Friday the 17th, so far, looks about waist high at south facing spots with rare chest high pluses.
Saturday the 18th, so far, looks about waist max at south facing spots.
Sunday the 19th holds potential for substantial hurricane swell. It's early in the game and needs much more monitoring. I'll have an update in my next report.
Weather Outlook:
Today (Sunday the 5th) moderate high pressure is centered near the 4-Corners as tropical moisture continues to push through SoCal. This tropical moisture is keeping the surface temps warmer than normal so there's little to no thermal inversion (page 131). Some spots were seeing marine layer since there was a weak coastal eddy last night (page 135), but there's nothing to give the marine moisture much support so it should dissipate quickly. Although the tropical moisture should exit the region later today into Monday the 6th, high pressure should remain with a weak onshore flow and almost no thermal inversion, so minimal marine layer for the next few days.
Wednesday the 8th should see high pressure become established over SoCal, keeping the onshore flow weak while heating up inland areas. The inversion should make a significant comeback as far inland areas like Palm Springs tease the 115° mark for the second half of this week. Models show the thermal inversion strengthening to an impressive Δ18°F, which normally would be a significant thickening agent for the marine layer. However, with high pressure centered over SoCal instead of the 4-Corners, we should see a slight offshore effect with the LAX-BFL gradient (page 129) running about -2mb. This should help with clearing, at least for early to midmorning sessions Wednesday the 8th through Friday the 10th.
High pressure then gains ground this coming weekend, although moving back to the 4-Corners region while teasing the 600dm mark, which signals a heatwave for the Desert Southwest. For SoCal, this should keep marine layer in check with early burn-offs; if, that is, the inversion doesn't become overwhelming.
But a more interesting feature on the weather models today is the potential for tropical rain sometime between Monday the 13th and Wednesday the 15th as this pattern takes shape (model by NOAA MAG):
Circled in red is a weak tropical system, and in blue is a very strong high pressure system sitting over the U.S. (that 603dm high is exceptionally strong, btw). Similar to the pattern bringing the potential hurricane swell for the 19th, this earlier system — with rain potential from the 13th-15th — would get guidance from the clockwise spinning high. Models show this system getting close enough to SoCal to bring rain to at least SD and maybe OC. However, the ECMWF model is very bullish, showing rain for all five coastal counties of SoCal. BTW: models don't show any rain from the potential hurricane that could bring swell to SoCal around the 19th...for now.
Taking all of this into account, here's how I'm calling SoCal beach weather for the next few days:
Today (Sunday the 5th) should see a quick burn-off followed by high clouds from the tropics with clearer skies later this afternoon. Max beach temps should reach the low 70s.
Monday the 6th should see a thin morning marine layer with a quick burn-off and max beach temps in the low 70s.
Tuesday the 7th should see AM marine layer with a burn-off by mid morning and max beach temps in the low 70s.
Wednesday the 8th should see a thin marine layer with a burn-off by mid morning and max beach temps in the low 70s.
Thursday the 9th should see a thin marine layer with a burn-off by mid morning and max beach temps in the low 70s.
Friday the 10th should see AM marine layer, burn-off mid to late morning and max beach temps in the low to mid 70s.
Wind Outlook:
Winds
at 7:00 AM were light and variable most everywhere along the coast. Onshores should pick up to 10 mph by noon and run 15 mph by early to mid afternoon.
Monday the 6th should see AM light and variables, onshores by noon to 10 mph, and then 15+ mph in the afternoon.
Tuesday the 7th should see AM light and variables, onshores by noon to 10 mph, and then 15+ mph in the afternoon.
Wednesday the 8th should see AM light and variables and afternoon onshores 8-12 mph.
Thursday the 9th should see AM light and variables and afternoon onshores 8-12 mph.
Until my next report (Tuesday), take care, be safe, and smile in the lineup!
