SoCal Forecast
Updated most Sundays, Tuesdays, and Thursdays
Tuesday 5/12/26 6:10 AM
By Nathan Cool
Surf Charts for SoCal
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At a glance:
Today (Tuesday the 12th) we have a good amount of southern hemisphere ground swell in SoCal. Moderate NW ground swell builds Thursday the 14th into Friday the 15th but a very strong wind swell event should start to build around that time, peaking over the weekend. Moderate NW ground swell is being watched for the 19th-20th. Light southern hemi should follow shortly after. Condition-wise: May Gray in full swing; winds trend onshore and stronger in a few days; daylight tide levels are fair; and water temps could drop in a few days.
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Current Conditions:
Early this morning, periods were primarily running 15 seconds from 190° and 12 seconds from 295°.
Most south facing breaks were running upwards of chest high with pluses at times at standouts south of LA that benefit from the San Diego Trough (page 111 in Wave by Wave). West facing breaks were mostly waist high.
Buoys in the outer waters were running 5-6'. Nearshore buoys were running 2-2.5' with southern hemi being the bulk of that.
Tide levels are swinging at moderate levels right now but we'll see wider swings by the weekend as we approach a New Moon Saturday the 16th. As is typical for this time of year, the widest swings will be mostly outside of daylight hours. Today we have a 4' high around 6:30 AM, a 0.7' low around 12:30 PM, and a 5' high around 7:00 PM.
Water temps are fair for now but cooling is highly likely by (or over) the weekend as strong outer water winds pick up by then. Currently, most of SD and OC was running 62-66°. LA was mostly 61-63°. For VC, the USCG readings remain unavailable. In SB, USCG readings are also unavailable but Stearns Wharf reported 59° this morning.
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Surf Forecast:
Today (Tuesday the 12th) we're seeing a fair amount of southern hemisphere ground swell from this system you might recall from earlier reports that formed about ten days ago south of French Polynesia (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
That swell peaked in SoCal yesterday so we're seeing its last hurrah today. This should drop to waist to chest at south facing breaks Wednesday the 13th.
Thursday the 14th (building day) into Friday the 15th should see initially light to moderate NW ground swell from this system diving southeast in the Gulf (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
WIth only 15-18' seas we normally wouldn't see much, but that course is ideal, directing a fair amount of swell energy at SoCal. Running the numbers again this morning works out to waist to chest high sets at west facing breaks, angled from 295° and periods 12-13 seconds. But this is only a portion of the swell that will build by the end of the week.
Friday the 15th, as the Gulf NW continues, we should see the first of a few pulses of moderately sized southern hemi ground swell from a series of small-scaled systems that were riding this ideal northward bend in the southern jetstream (model by NOAA MAG):
Three back-to-back storms traversed that storm track, each with modest seas in the 20' range. That works out to waist to chest high surf at south facing breaks Friday the 15th through Sunday the 17th, angled from about 190° and periods 14-15 seconds. But by the weekend, both the NW and SW ground swells could take a backseat.
Thursday the 14th will likely see NW wind swell slowly build, increasing significantly Saturday the 16th into Sunday the 17th as this very windy pattern develops along the coast (model by UQAM):
Models today have upgraded this wind and wind-swell event with strong surface high pressure off the coast interacting with extremely low surface pressure inland (red arrows). A very tight pressure gradient should ensue, with sustained winds running 35-40 mph off SoCal (white box), and gusts to near 50 mph. Winds will be weaker near the coast. The strong outer water winds should gin-up 15-18' seas 100 miles from SoCal's beaches, which works out to wind swell running head high at west facing breaks Saturday the 16th, and then upwards of a couple feet overhead Sunday the 17th. This would be angled from a wide swath from 270-300° and periods 9-13 seconds. This, btw, is when upwelling becomes very likely, which could drop nearshore water temps by a few degrees Saturday the 16th, more so Sunday the 17th into Monday the 18th. Swell-wise, this wind swell is expected to back down to chest to head high Monday the 18th and fade Tuesday the 19th.
Not only would this wind swell overshadow the prior Gulf NW and southern hemi preceding it, but other swells like a moderate NW'er from the Gulf (model here) would go unnoticed as well as it would only produce chest max waves at west facing breaks Sunday the 17th. The wind swell event is a few days out, but models have been consistent the past few days and are upgrading that today.
Tuesday the 19th, as the wind swell backs off and southern hemi disappears, we could see light to moderate NW ground swell from this system on the 3-day outlook (model from NOAA OPC):
With 20-25' seas from that location, SoCal's west facing breaks would run chest max Tuesday the 19th and Wednesday the 20th. Swell would be angled from 300° and periods 14 seconds. As this fades to waist high Thursday the 21st, minor southern hemisphere ground swell should come ashore to help south facing breaks with waist high waves.
Smaller surf is expected Friday the 22nd and Saturday the 23rd, knee to waist at most breaks.
Sunday the 24th through Wednesday the 27th should see light southern hemisphere ground swell from a series of small-scaled storms directed northward near New Zealand from a trough of low pressure bulging the jetstream north (model by NOAA MAG):
With each storm creating fetch with 20-25' seas, south facing breaks are looking at waist to chest high waves from the 24th through the 27th, angled from 210° and periods 14-15 seconds.
Looking out further on the long range, in case you missed it from my Sunday report, there have been new developments regarding this year's El Niño. Since last month, one of NOAA's well-trusted forecast models, the NCEP Coupled Forecast System (CFSv2), is showing high potential for a "very strong" El Niño by the winter. Here's the latest model run today (model from NOAA CPC)
The thick dashed line shows the model mean, topping out at just under 3°C. This could be historic since the El Niño of 2015-16 measured 2.6°C, and the 1997-98 was 2.4°C. But this doesn't necessarily guarantee catastrophic weather (or surf). Something I talk about in Surf, Flood, Fire & Mud is that it's often after a strong El Niño that we get the highest rain amounts (from neutral-Niño spans). So far though, we are looking at potential for heavy winter surf, preceded by potentially more tropical storm/swell activity this summer, especially since we are still seeing a Marine Heat Wave near SoCal.
NOAA will update their official forecast this Thursday, which will shed more light on this. There's a lot to monitor concerning waves and weather for SoCal in the coming weeks and months, but as long as I have your support then I can continue to keep an eye on the Pacific to keep you posted. Please remember this report is funded by reader donations and your help is essential to keep it alive.
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Here's a brief look at how the next few days are breaking down so far:
Wednesday the 13th looks about waist to chest high at south facing breaks and waist high at west facing spots.
Thursday the 14th is expected to run upwards of chest at west facing breaks and waist high at south facing spots.
Friday the 15th looks about chest high at most spots.
Saturday the 16th, so far, is expected to see NW wind swell in the chest to head high range at dawn, increasing throughout the day.
Sunday the 17th, so far, is expected to run head high to 2' overhead at west facing breaks from wind swell.
Monday the 18th, so far, looks about chest to head high at west facing breaks from wind swell.
Tuesday the 19th, so far, looks about chest max at west facing breaks and waist max at south facing spots.
Wednesday the 20th, so far, looks about waist high at most breaks with some chest high pluses at times at west facing spots.
Thursday the 21st, so far, looks about waist max everywhere.
Friday the 22nd, so far, looks about knee to waist everywhere.
Weather Outlook:
Today (Tuesday the 12th) May Gray is in full force as high pressure that was over SoCal is moving east. A strong thermal inversion is in place, thickening the marine layer. On top of that, recent outer water winds have ginned up a coastal eddy, adding even more moisture in the mix. Most days will have morning marine layer in the forecast except Sunday the 17th, which will be the windiest day from that pattern noted above for the wind swell, shown here again to save you from scrolling (model by UQAM):
Two things should inhibit marine layer development Sunday the 17th: cold air aloft will put the kibosh on the inversion; and wind should mix out the surface moisture early, making for one of those days when "if it's clear, then winds are near". Winds at the coast are a tricky one to forecast as it does appear the strong winds will stay a good 25+ miles off the coast. The strongest winds in that model above are about 100 miles off the coast, where gusts could reach 50 mph over the weekend — a major concern for mariners. But model data near the coast shows mild winds, which is a bit hard to believe. I'll keep winds at moderate to high strength this weekend in the Wind section below.
Once the wind-fest ends early next week, either weak high pressure or a flat zonal flow will develop, so no major warming but a moderate onshore push either way. All of this — from now through next week — makes the air temperature forecast an easy call: mid to upper 60s at the beaches each day. Water temps are a different story as upwelling is practically inevitable from those outer water winds. I'd suspect water temps could dip into the upper 50s at many spots either late in the weekend or by Monday.
Taking all of this into account, here's how I'm calling SoCal beach weather for the next few days:
Today (Tuesday the 12th) is looking at a late burn-off, maybe not until mid to late afternoon at some beaches, followed by high clouds. Max beach temps should reach the mid 60s.
Wednesday the 13th should see AM marine layer, burn-off by noon, and max beach temps in the mid 60s.
Thursday the 14th should see AM marine layer, burn-off by early afternoon, and max beach temps in the mid to upper 60s.
Friday the 15th should see AM marine layer, burn-off early to mid afternoon, and max beach temps in the mid to upper 60s.
Saturday the 16th should see AM marine layer, burn-off by early afternoon, and max beach temps in the mid to upper 60s.
Sunday the 17th should see a thin AM marine layer, dissipating quickly early to mid morning. Max beach temps should reach the upper 60s.
Wind Outlook:
Winds
at 6:00 AM were onshore from the WSW in many spots 3-6 mph. Afternoon onshores should run 10-15 mph.
Wednesday the 13th should see AM light and variables with afternoon onshores 10-15 mph.
Thursday the 14th should see AM light and variables and afternoon onshores around 15 mph.
Friday the 15th, so far, is expected to see AM light and variables, early afternoon onshores 10-15 mph, and somewhat stronger mid to late afternoon.
Saturday the 16th, so far, is expected to see AM light and variables but with onshores picking up throughout the morning, reaching 15 mph by noon, and then 20 mph by mid afternoon.
Sunday the 17th, so far, is looking at early AM onshores 4-8 mph, picking up to 15 mph by noon, and then 20 mph by mid afternoon.
Until my next report (Thursday), take care, be safe, and smile in the lineup!
