SoCal Forecast
Updated most Sundays, Tuesdays, and Thursdays
Thursday 7/30/26 6:00 AM
By Nathan Cool
Surf Charts for SoCal
Rincon | Ventura, C-St. | County Line | Malibu | Hermosa | Huntington BeachTrestles | Old Mans | Oceanside | Beacons | Sunset Cliffs
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At a glance:
Today (Thursday the 30th) strong southerly swell continues from Genevieve along with lesser southern hemi ground swell. Both swells are on the way out but will still produce sizable surf for a couple days. Once the southerly swells back down we should see light to moderate NW wind swell Sunday the 2nd. A moderate SW ground swell is due Saturday the 8th. SW ground swell is becoming likely for the 11th and 13th. And another SW swell is being watched for the 16th. Condition-wise: fair weather and winds at the coast; water temps are warm; and advisories are in effect.
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Current Conditions:
Early this morning, periods were primarily running 12-16 seconds from 170-190°.
Many south facing breaks were running 2-4' overhead but with some spots around LA seeing less swell from island shadows (page 81), yet bigger sets can be expected at spots that work refraction from the underwater San Diego Trough (page 111). West facing breaks are picking up wrap, anywhere from chest to head high, bigger at SW exposed spots.
Buoys in the outer waters were running 6-8'. Nearshore buoys were about 2.5-4.0'.
Tide levels are swinging wide from yesterday's Full Moon. Today we have a -0.6' low around 5:00 AM, a 4' high around 11:30 AM, a 2' low around 4:30 PM, and a 6' high around 10:30 PM.
Water temps were running 73-76° around most of SD. OC was a bit more varied with Huntington Beach reporting 68° yesterday while Newport Beach was 72° and San Clemente Pier 76°. LA was mostly 72-75°, although the Santa Monica Pier reported 77° at one point yesterday, and 75° this morning. In VC, Channel Islands Harbor reported 72° last night. SB Harbor reported 73° last night.
Hazard Warnings: The risks for rip currents, sneaker waves, high consistency, alongshore currents, and coastal flooding will be elevated into the weekend. The NWS has issued warnings as well for SB, VC, and LA here and OC and SD here.
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Surf Forecast:
Today (Thursday the 30th) Genevieve is weakening and is about to exit the SoCal swell window. Here's what she looked like yesterday afternoon from space (image from NOAA GOES):
The eye is becoming less defined as winds have weakened below 100 mph, but substantial swell is still being directed at SoCal. This is the primary swell for SoCal for the next couple days as earlier southern hemi swell has been backing off. The swell angle has improved from Genevieve, which is one reason why many south facing breaks are seeing significantly sized surf today.
Friday the 31st should see sets running 1-2' overhead at south facing breaks. Size should drop to around head high Saturday the 1st. Pluses are likely both days.
Saturday the 2nd, as hurricane swell backs down to chest high (with occasional pluses), we should see a slight increase in NW wind swell from a trough of low pressure pushing south toward SoCal. Wind swell should put most west facing breaks in chest max waves, continuing Monday the 3rd with similar size as south facing breaks drop to chest max Monday.
Tuesday the 4th through Friday the 7th look like small days in the SoCal surf zone, about waist max at most spots.
Saturday the 8th (building quickly) into Sunday the 9th (peak) should see SW ground swell from this system heading north off Antarctica (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
That system should peak later today with 30' seas, which works out to chest high sets at south facing breaks, angled from 195° and periods 17 seconds initially. This swell will likely continue Monday the 10th with maybe a slight decrease in size (waist to chest) before the next SW swell comes ashore.
Tuesday the 11th and Thursday the 13th could see SW ground swell from these two systems near New Zealand on the 4- and 6-day models (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
Although the eastmost system has bigger seas with longer periods that will arrive first, its course increases its angular decay (page 52); whereas, the westmost system will lose almost none. Thus, the size from both should be the same for SoCal, about chest high at south facing breaks, angled from 210-215° and periods 19 seconds initially on the 11th, and 17 seconds by the 13th. Models have been somewhat consistent with this. Today they're aligned so confidence is high. But being on the medium range models I'll need a few more days to see how this unfolds.
Sunday the 16th is the next potential ETA for southern hemisphere ground swell from this system breaking off Antarctica on the 8-day models (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
So far, that too looks like a chest high swell for south facing breaks, angled from 210° and periods 17 seconds.
Looking toward the tropics there is a lapse — no doubt temporary — in cyclonic activity. However, the 10-day-plus ensembles show at least moderate potential, shown here as three tropical storms moving north, which would send swell to SoCal (model by NOAA MAG):
Swell ETA would be sometime between 8/11 to 8/13. But that's what the GEFS ensemble model shows, which takes into account 31 different model runs. The deterministic models on the other hand, including that ensemble's cousin the GFS, show nada. While this is more of a footnote, the stage is set for more hurricanes to form in our swell window. And here's why.
El Niño has warmed waters significantly in the eastern equatorial Pacific while a marine heat wave (MHV) persists off Baja, stretching into SoCal (model from NOAA Coral Reef Watch):
The warmer waters are providing fuel for hurricanes, and the lack of cooler water is allowing hurricanes to travel farther north as they cross into our swell window. The likelihood for this to continue — and possibly amplify — remains high as El Niño is on track to become significant over the coming months (model from NOAA CPC)
This corrected model (something much of the media ignores by using worst-case, low probability outliers) shows this year's El Niño topping out around 2.5°C anomalous by the winter. By comparison, the El Niño of 2015-16 measured 2.6°C, and the 1997-98 Niño was 2.4°C. So this year's El Niño should be right up there with those exceptionally active events (something I talk about in Surf, Flood, Fire & Mud). Yet looking out further on the long range there is a possible snag.
A longer, decades-long cycle known as the PDO (more on that here, if you're interested) acts as a kind of background modulator for El Niños; if, that is, the PDO's warm phase coincides with El Niño's. Right now, it doesn't. The PDO has been in a cold phase for the last seven years and was substantially cold (relatively speaking) this time last year. Since then, the PDO has been warming (slightly), but not enough to say that it will bring backup muscle to this year's El Niño or others that may come over the next few years.
In any case, the PDO acts on decades, which has had an interesting impact on SoCal surf for spans upwards of 20 years (I have a story about that starting on page 98 in Wave By Wave). The more immediate attention is on what we can see in front of us: warmer than normal waters and an accelerating El Niño. These take center stage as we approach peak hurricane season over the next couple months. Taking these things into account, there is high potential for substantial hurricanes to form during the months of August and September, possibly into October.
So while we may see a temporary lapse in hurricane swell after Genevieve, it likely won't last long. There is a lot to monitor, but as long as I have your support then I can continue to keep an eye on the Pacific to keep you posted. Please remember this report is funded by reader donations and your help is crucial to keep it alive (see why here).
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Here's a brief look at how the next few days are breaking down so far:
Friday the 31st looks about 1-2' overhead at south facing breaks.
Saturday the 1st looks head high to slightly overhead at south facing breaks in the early morning with swell fading later in the day.
Sunday the 2nd looks about chest high at most breaks but with some pluses still possible at south facing spots running upwards of head high.
Monday the 3rd looks about chest high at most spots.
Tuesday the 4th looks about waist high at most spots.
Wednesday the 5th looks about waist high at most spots.
Thursday the 6th, so far, looks about waist high at most spots.
Friday the 7th, so far, looks about waist high at most spots.
Saturday the 8th, so far, is expected to run chest high at south facing breaks by midmorning.
Sunday the 9th, so far, is expected to run chest high at south facing spots.
Monday the 10th, so far, is expected to run chest max at south facing spots.
Tuesday the 11th, so far, is expected to run chest high at south facing spots.
Wednesday the 12th, so far, is expected to run chest high at south facing spots.
Thursday the 13th, so far, is expected to run chest high at south facing spots.
Weather Outlook:
Today (Thursday the 30th) high pressure remains moderate over the region but will strengthen across the 4-Corners Friday the 31st making Friday the warmest of the next few days in SoCal. The high will weaken a smidge Saturday the 1st, a bit more Sunday the 2nd, and a lot more Monday the 3rd, allowing for slight cooling each day. This though applies mostly to inland areas as the coast will remain regulated by morning marine layer. Typical of summertime heat, a thermal inversion will be present each morning over the coast. But with the water temps being above normal, the inversion should stay light to moderate, allowing for quick burn-offs most days.
The 4-Corners high should continue to weaken next week, more so by the end of next week as a trough of low pressure pushes slightly south toward SoCal. This would lead to cooling and may increase the onshore push enough to thicken up morning marine layer.
Taking all of this into account, here's how I'm calling SoCal beach weather for the next few days:
Today (Thursday the 30th) should see a burn-off mid to late morning and max beach temps in the low to mid 70s.
Friday the 31st should see AM marine layer with a burn-off mid morning and max beach temps in the mid to upper 70s.
Saturday the 1st should see thin AM marine layer with an early morning burn-off and max beach temps in the mid 70s.
Sunday the 2nd should see thin AM marine layer with burn-off by midmorning and max beach temps in the mid 70s.
Monday the 3rd should see thin AM marine layer with burn-off mid to late morning and max beach temps in the mid 70s.
Tuesday the 4th should see thin AM marine layer with burn-off mid to late morning and max beach temps in the mid 70s.
Wind Outlook:
Winds
at 6:00 AM were light and variable most everywhere. Afternoon onshores should run 8-12 mph.
Friday the 31st should see AM light and variables with afternoon onshores 10-15 mph.
Saturday the 1st should see AM light and variables with afternoon onshores 10-15 mph.
Sunday the 2nd should see AM light and variables with afternoon onshores 10-15 mph.
Until my next report (Sunday), take care, be safe, and smile in the lineup!
