SoCal Forecast
Updated most Sundays, Tuesdays, and Thursdays
Saturday 4/4/26 6:00 AM
By Nathan Cool
Surf Charts for SoCal
Rincon | Ventura, C-St. | County Line | Malibu | Hermosa | Huntington BeachTrestles | Old Mans | Oceanside | Beacons | Sunset Cliffs
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Holiday Schedule: In observance of the Easter holiday, I've issued my report on Saturday instead of Sunday. I'll resume the regular forecasting schedule on Tuesday. You can also sign up for the free email above to be notified when new reports are posted. Thank you everyone!
At a glance:
Today (Saturday the 4th) we have a light mix of NW and SW swells in SoCal. Southern hemi swell builds today, peaking Sunday the 5th. Light to moderate NW wind swell is being watched for the middle of next week. Moderate SW ground swell is due Friday the 10th, although weather could be a factor. A series of minor southern hemisphere ground swells is expected starting Tuesday the 14th. There's a chance for better southern hemi later this month. Condition-wise: Santa Ana ends today; rain likely late next week; tide levels are moderate; and water temps have dipped in some spots.
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Current Conditions:
Early this morning, periods were primarily running 12 seconds from 315° and 18 seconds from 180°.
Most west facing breaks were running waist to chest high. South facing spots were mostly waist high, but swell should build throughout the day.
Buoys in the outer waters were running 7'. Nearshore buoys were running 1.4-2.2'.
Tide levels are moderate right now. Today we have a -0.1' low around 5:30 AM, a 3.5' high around noon, a 1.5' low around 5:00 PM, and a 5.2' high around 11:00 PM.
Water temps were running 62-65° around most of SD and OC. LA was mostly 61-64°. In VC, Channel Islands Harbor reported 60° last night. In SB, Stearns Wharf reported 65° this morning.
Surf Forecast:
Today (Saturday the 4th) NW wind swell is backing off as slightly longer-period ground swell remains from an earlier Gulf system. This NW activity is on the way out, trading places with southern hemisphere ground swell that is just now teasing the buoys. This southerly swell will peak in SoCal Sunday the 5th from this activity that broke off Antarctica more than a week ago (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
That was a tad east of the SoCal longitude, coming in from a SSE angle; however, the course was ideal with plenty of northward momentum. This should put most south facing breaks into chest+ sets Sunday the 5th; chest high Monday the 6th; waist to at times chest high Tuesday the 7th; waist high Wednesday the 8th; and then smaller Thursday the 9th. Swell should remain angled from 175-180°.
Tuesday the 7th into Wednesday the 8th, as the southern hemi swell starts to back down, we'll likely see light to moderate NW wind swell, kicked up ahead of this low pressure system headed to SoCal (model by NOAA MAG):
Its proximity smacks of rain when it passes through SoCal later in the week (see Weather section below). As for wind swell, this will likely gin-up waist to chest high wind swell waves at west facing breaks Tuesday the 7th, and more consistently chest high Wednesday the 8th. Swell would be angled from the wind-swell-usual 300°+ with periods 7-10 seconds. This particular round of wind swell should back off Thursday the 9th.
Friday the 10th should see SW ground swell from this low latitude, Antarctic system that was southeast of New Zealand (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
That should produce chest high sets at south facing breaks Friday the 10th, angled from 205° with periods 16-17 seconds. We should also see intermittent NW ground swell from this system near Japan (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
Models downgraded that system this morning, putting size in the waist high range for west facing breaks Friday the 10th into Saturday the 11th, with swell angled from 305° and periods 14 seconds. Southern hemisphere ground swell will be dominant those days. So all told: Friday the 10th should run chest high at south facing breaks and waist high at west facing spots. Saturday the 11th should run chest+ at south facing breaks and waist high at west facing spots. And then Sunday the 12th should run waist to chest at south facing spots, smaller at west facing breaks. But there could be an issue with conditions.
Models continue to show rain later this week from that low noted above (bringing wind swell on the 7th-8th). Models differ on timing and amounts, but all models show some form of rain. I'll break down the details in the Weather section below. However, winds and wind swell need more monitoring. For instance, most models keep winds far to the north, keeping conditions fair (for a passing storm), with hardly any wind swell entering SoCal. Other models say otherwise. I'll be able to nail it down in my next report.
Tuesday the 14th through at least Saturday the 18th we're looking at a series of light southern hemisphere ground swells as this weather pattern has developed in the lower latitudes (model from ECMWF):
That essentially shows the jetstream/storm-track, with the darker areas being the stormiest activity in that jet. The red arrow points to storm activity sending the initial swell to SoCal, arriving on the 14th into the 15th. The blue arrow shows a northward bulge in the storm-track from a trough of low pressure, which would help storms direct their swell energy better toward SoCal — albeit only slightly so. Ideally, the best southern hemis travel north in larger troughs of low pressure, and originate farther west. That bulge doesn't qualify for either; it's very far to the east with barely any northward guidance. Still, as storms travel east and then slightly to the north, we should see some southerly ground swell in SoCal. Breaking this down on the short range models, here's what to expect:
Tuesday the 14th should see waist high waves at south facing breaks, angled from 205° and periods 15 seconds. Wednesday the 15th should run waist high at south facing breaks. Thursday the 16th should run waist+ at south facing breaks. Friday the 17th will likely run waist+, and the same goes for Saturday the 18th and Sunday the 19th. Swell angled from around 185° starting on the 18th.
Looking out further on the long range, the 10- to 12-day models show the southern hemi jet taking on this more surf-worthy pattern (model by NOAA MAG):
The northward bend near New Zealand offers a ray of surfable hope starting 4/25. It's an extended long range projection, admittedly from a desperate search for surf in an otherwise barren window after the middle of the month. Still, this earned an optimistic yellow pin in my charts this morning and I'll see how it goes.
And last but not least, I posted the latest progress report, which unfortunately shows donations have declined for a second month in a row. So if this report has been helpful to you and you'd like to see it continue, then I'd really appreciate your support right now (more on that here).
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Here's a brief look at how the next few days are breaking down so far:
Sunday the 5th is expected to run chest+ at south facing breaks and waist high at west facing spots.
Monday the 6th looks about chest high at south facing spots and knee to waist at west facing spots.
Tuesday the 7th looks about waist to chest at south facing spots and waist to at times chest high at west facing spots.
Wednesday the 8th should run waist to chest at west facing breaks and waist high at south facing spots.
Thursday the 9th looks about waist max at most breaks.
Friday the 10th should run chest high at south facing breaks. NW wind swell is possible but needs more monitoring.
Saturday the 11th should run chest+ at south facing breaks, but NW wind swell needs more monitoring.
Sunday the 12th, so far, looks about waist to chest at south facing breaks. NW needs more monitoring from this point.
Monday the 13th, so far, looks about waist high at south facing breaks.
Tuesday the 14th, so far, looks about waist high south facing spots.
Wednesday the 15th, so far, looks about waist high at south facing spots.
Thursday the 16th, so far, looks about waist+ at south facing breaks.
Friday the 17th, so far, looks about waist+ at south facing spots.
Saturday the 18th, so far, looks about waist+ at south facing spots.
Sunday the 19th, so far, looks about waist+ at south facing spots.
Weather Outlook:
This morning (Saturday the 4th) the Santa Ana is on its last leg. There's still a decent 5mb northeast gradient (on a scale of 1-10), along with a bit stronger northern gradient, but both are weakening. All models agree offshore winds will peak later this morning before a calmer afternoon. Beach max temps will peak today in the mid 70s and then cool a bit Sunday as high pressure weakens over the region.
Monday the 6th sees the high break down further as this area of low pressure approaches the coast, which could eventually pass through SoCal later next week (model by NOAA MAG):
That model is for mid afternoon Thursday the 9th, which is when some models show we could start seeing rain. Before then, Monday the 6th through Wednesday the 8th should see cooler air temps, some AM marine layer, and high clouds at times. But rain is the question of the day with the GFS model showing rain starting in the morning Thursday the 9th. The ECMWF on the other hand holds off until Friday the 10th into Saturday the 11th. Other models like the CMC fall in between with rain late Thursday the 9th into Friday the 10th. Amounts differ widely with the ECMWF the most bullish with a slow-moving storm dumping an inch or more around most of SoCal. But the GFS shows just 0.25" from a quick hitter. For now, I'd count on rain sometime Thursday the 9th into Friday the 10th. I'll put a pin in the weekend weather for now and have more in my next report (Tuesday).
Taking all of this into account, here's how I'm calling SoCal beach weather for the next few days:
Today (Saturday the 4th) looks clear with beach max temps in the mid 70s.
Sunday the 5th should see a thin marine layer, mostly south of LA. Burn-off should be quick with passing high clouds after. Beach max temps should reach the low 70s.
Monday the 6th is looking at early AM marine layer with a timely burn-off, followed by passing high clouds. Beach max temps should reach the mid to upper 60s.
Tuesday the 7th should see AM marine layer with a burn-off mid to late morning. Beach max temps should reach the mid to upper 60s.
Wednesday the 8th should see AM marine layer with a burn-off mid to late morning. Beach max temps should reach the mid to upper 60s.
Thursday the 9th looks cloudy. There is a chance of rain in the morning, although this is where models go their separate ways. Still, most ensemble models favor rain starting some time Thursday the 9th, so I'd put rain chances in the 75% chance range for at least the afternoon. Beach max temps will likely cool to the low 60s
Friday the 10th will more than likely see rain; however, some models show a break, with rain picking back up Saturday the 11th. I'll narrow-in on this in my next report (Tuesday).
Wind Outlook:
Winds
at 6:00 AM were lightly offshore in most spots but stronger through VC at 8-12 mph with gusts near 20 mph at times at the most wind-prone spots. Some spots, from LA south, were calm. Offshore winds should peak midmorning 15-20 mph (at most) around VC, but much weaker elsewhere. Winds should shift lightly onshore this afternoon at 5-10 mph.
Sunday the 5th is expected to see AM offshores 4-8 mph and afternoon onshores around 10 mph.
Monday the 6th is expected to see AM light and variables with afternoon onshores around 15 mph.
Tuesday the 7th is expected to see AM light and variables with an onshore element and afternoon onshores to 15 mph.
Wednesday the 8th should see early AM onshores 4-8 mph. Afternoon onshores should reach 15 mph with gusts to 20 mph likely in most spots. North of LA winds may be stronger in the 25+ mph range.
Until my next report (Tuesday), take care, be safe, and smile in the lineup!
