SoCal Forecast
Updated most Sundays, Tuesdays, and Thursdays
Sunday 3/15/26 6:45 AM
By Nathan Cool
Surf Charts for SoCal
Rincon | Ventura, C-St. | County Line | Malibu | Hermosa | Huntington BeachTrestles | Old Mans | Oceanside | Beacons | Sunset Cliffs
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At a glance:
Today (Sunday the 15th) we have mostly moderate southern hemisphere ground swell in SoCal with background NW wind swell. Another round of southerly ground swell fills in later today, peaking Monday the 16th. A combo of NW wind swell and SW ground swell is due this coming weekend. Stronger NW wind swell is being watched for the 24th. And SW swell is being watched for April 1st. Condition-wise: heat wave this week; winds stay mild most of the week; tide levels swing wide over the next few days; water temps are fair but could drop this coming weekend; and water contact advisories are in effect for some areas.
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Current Conditions:
Early this morning, periods were primarily running 14 seconds from 185° and 11 seconds from 315°. Southern hemi forerunners were also coming in at times from 190° with periods 20 seconds.
Most south facing breaks were running chest high with occasional head high pluses at standouts. West facing breaks were mostly waist to chest, bigger at SW exposed spots.
Buoys in the outer waters were running 7-9'. Nearshore buoys were averaging 2.5'.
Tide levels are swinging wide as we approach a New Moon Wednesday the 18th. Today we have a 5' high around 7:30 AM, a -0.5' low around 2:30 PM, and a 4' high around 9:00 PM.
Water temps were running 60-63° around most of SD. In OC, temps varied yesterday with Huntington and Newport reporting 59° while San Clemente Pier reported 64°. LA was mostly 60-63°, but Zuma reported 58° yesterday. In VC, Channel Islands Harbor reported 59° this morning. In SB, Stearns Wharf reported 60° this morning. Note that water temps may increase slightly this week from a SoCal heat wave, but winds later in the week could cause some upwelling to cool waters slightly this weekend.
Water Contact Advisory: A number of LA Beaches have been posted for high bacteria levels, likely due to urban runoff through storm drains combined with recently warmer temps. You can check the latest water quality for all five coastal counties at these links: SD here, OC here, LA here, VC here, and SB here.
Surf Forecast:
Today (Sunday the 15th) we're still seeing southern hemisphere ground swell from the Pitcairn system, which peaked in SoCal a couple days ago. NW wind swell is seasonally ever-present but southern hemi swell is dominant. There are also occasional forerunners filling in this morning from the next southern hemi ground swell, generated by this system that grew near New Zealand and eventually took an ideal turn to the northeast as it traveled east (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
That should produce sets upwards of head high at south facing breaks Monday the 16th, angled from 190° with periods 18 seconds. This swell should linger at chest to head high Tuesday the 17th, and then drop to chest high Wednesday the 18th and waist to chest Thursday the 19th.
Friday the 20th into Saturday the 21st is still looking at NW wind swell, although models today have downgraded that slightly for SoCal. This will be caused by a tight pressure gradient that will set up along the west coast by the end of the week (model by UQAM):
Strong surface high pressure will butt-up against strong inland low pressure (red arrows), creating a very tight gradient along the coast to whip up strong winds off NorCal. Some of those winds will stretch into SoCal (white box), which should result in chest high wind swell at west facing breaks by Saturday the 21st, lingering Sunday the 22nd. Wind swell would be angled from the typical 300°+ with periods 10 seconds.
Friday the 20th into Saturday the 21st, along with NW wind swell, we should see light to moderate southern hemisphere ground swell from this system that peaked near New Zealand (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
That should produce sets running waist to chest high at south facing breaks by Saturday the 21st, angled from 205° with periods 15-16 seconds. This too should linger Sunday the 22nd. NW wind swell though should be dominant both days this weekend. Both swells should back off Monday the 23rd.
Tuesday the 24th may see another round of NW wind swell as models show a similar pattern setting up then with strong high pressure off the coast creating a tight gradient against an inland low (model by UQAM):
So far, that looks like a chest+ wind swell for west facing breaks Tuesday the 24th, although this is much further out on the long range, needing more monitoring.
Tuesday the 24th (late) into Wednesday the 25th (peak), along with NW wind swell, we should see minor SW ground swell from this system peaking today near New Zealand (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
That's about 6,000 nautical miles away on a terrible course for SoCal swell, resulting in sporadic sets running waist high at south facing breaks, angled from 215° and periods 16 seconds. This swell would likely linger Thursday the 26th before backing down Friday the 27th.
Wednesday the 1st into Thursday the 2nd is the next swell on my charts this morning from another New Zealand system, but this time taking a more favorable trek to the northeast (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
So far, that looks like a chest high swell for south facing breaks, angled from 210° and periods 16 seconds. It's still a ways out on the long range so it needs more monitoring. But as long as I have your support, then I can continue watching the Pacific to keep this report going and keep you posted.
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Here's a brief look at how the next few days are breaking down so far:
Monday the 16th should run chest to head high at south facing breaks with some pluses at standouts, and waist to chest at west facing spots.
Tuesday the 17th is expected to run chest to head high at south facing breaks and waist to chest at west facing spots.
Wednesday the 18th looks about chest high at south facing breaks and waist high at west facing breaks.
Thursday the 19th looks about waist to chest at south facing breaks and knee to waist at west facing breaks.
Friday the 20th looks about waist high at most spots.
Saturday the 21st, so far, is looking at NW wind swell running chest high at west facing breaks. South facing breaks would run waist high.
Sunday the 22nd, so far, is also looking at NW wind swell running chest high at west facing breaks. South facing breaks would run waist high.
Monday the 23rd, so far, is looking at waist high waves at most breaks.
Tuesday the 24th, so far, holds potential for chest high wind swell at west facing breaks. South facing spots would run waist high.
Wednesday the 25th, so far, looks similar.
Thursday the 26th, so far, looks about waist high at most spots.
Friday the 27th, so far, looks about knee to waist everywhere.
Saturday the 28th, so far, looks about waist high at south facing breaks and knee to waist at west facing spots.
Weather Outlook:
Today (Sunday the 15th) is a transition day as SoCal enters a multi-day heatwave from this pattern that'll develop over our area (model by UQAM):
Showing both surface and upper level pressure on that model, we can see very strong surface high pressure near SoCal (measuring 1024mb), which is rather strong for our area. A few miles above us, that deep red area shows a 594dm high, which is quite impressive as well. This will cook inland areas with temps nearing 110° in Palm Springs and near 100° in warm valley locations like Woodland Hills. At the coast, this should keep air temps around 80° most days. Unlike traditional summertime highs, this one should create a slight offshore flow (about 2mb on a Santa Ana scale of 1-10) which will help push marine layer off the coast, despite a weak thermal inversion that'll form this week from the dramatic increase in inland temps. The inversion looks unimpressive, so add to that the offshore flow and marine layer looks minimal to nil.
By the end of the week, the high should weaken and move east. Friday should be the transition day, leading to a cooler weekend for the 21st-22nd. A trough of low pressure could then swipe SoCal by the middle of next week for a further cool-down. The extended long range models, btw, show a trough of low pressure bringing rain to SoCal on the 31st, but that's such a long shot right now that I'll leave it as a footnote and see how it goes.
Taking all of this into account, here's how I'm calling SoCal beach weather for the next few days:
Today (Sunday the 15th) should see marine layer burning off by mid to late morning. Beach max temps should reach the low 70s.
Monday the 16th should see morning marine layer, burn-off midmorning, and beach max temps in the mid 70s.
Tuesday the 17th should see a thin marine layer with quick burn-off and max beach temps around 80°.
Wednesday the 18th should see little to no AM marine layer and max beach temps around 80°.
Thursday the 19th should be clear with max beach temps around 80°.
Friday the 20th should see minimal AM marine layer, quick burn-off, and max beach temps around 80°.
Saturday the 21st, so far, is expected to see AM marine layer, late morning burn-off followed by high clouds, and max beach temps in the mid 70s.
Sunday the 22nd, so far, is expected to see AM marine layer, late morning burn-off, and max beach temps in the low 70s.
Wind Outlook:
Winds
at 6:00 AM were light and variable most everywhere along the SoCal coast. Afternoon onshores should run 10 mph.
Monday the 16th should see AM light and variables and afternoon onshores to 10 mph.
Tuesday the 17th should see light AM offshores around 5 mph and afternoon onshores 5-10 mph.
Wednesday the 18th should see light AM offshores around 5 mph and afternoon onshores 5-10 mph.
Thursday the 19th should see light AM offshores around 5 mph and afternoon onshores 5-10 mph.
Friday the 20th, so far, is expected to see AM light and variables and afternoon onshores to 10 mph.
Saturday the 21st, so far, is expected to see AM light and variables with afternoon onshores to 15 mph.
Until my next report (Tuesday), take care, be safe, and smile in the lineup!
