SoCal Forecast
Updated most Sundays, Tuesdays, and Thursdays
Sunday 5/10/26 6:10 AM
By Nathan Cool
Surf Charts for SoCal
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At a glance:
Today (Sunday the 10th) southern hemisphere ground swell is filling in, which will peak tomorrow. Light to moderate NW ground swell is due Thursday the 14th into Friday the 15th. A series of light to moderate southern hemi swells are due Friday the 15th through the coming weekend. Sunday the 17th may see a notable increase in NW swell. Moderate NW ground swell is becoming possible for the 21st. We'll see light southern hemi then either way. More SW ground swell is being watched on the long range. And there's an important update today on this year's El Niño. Condition-wise: marine layer in full force; winds pick up in a few days; tide levels are fair for now; and water temps have been fluctuating.
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Current Conditions:
Early this morning, periods were primarily running 14 seconds from 190° but with 18-second periods coming in at times from 190-200°, signaling the swell building into Monday. NW energy was mostly light wind swell from a steep 315°, missing a good part of the SoCal bight.
Most south facing breaks were running waist to chest high, but with pluses at standouts south of LA that can work the underwater San Diego Trough (shown on page 111 in Wave by Wave).
Buoys in the outer waters were running 7-8'. Nearshore buoys were running 1.7' (south facing) to 2.2' (west facing).
Tide levels are swinging at moderate levels right now, but we'll see wider swings by the weekend as we approach a New Moon Saturday the 16th. As is typical for this time of year, the widest swings will be mostly outside of daylight hours. Today we have a 4' high around 4:00 AM, a 0.5' low around 11:30 AM, and a 4' high around 6:30 PM.
Water temps have been low in the outer waters from persistent winds causing upwelling. This is fluctuating water temps along the coast, with some spots cooler at times. For SD and OC, most spots have been running 62-66°, although Huntington Beach dipped to 60° at one point yesterday. LA has been fluctuating widely with water temps at the Santa Monica Pier measuring anywhere from 59-64° over the past 24 hours. In VC, the USCG readings remain unavailable. In SB, USCG readings are also unavailable but Stearns Wharf reported 59° this morning.
Surf Forecast:
Today (Sunday the 10th) NW swell is taking a backseat as southern hemisphere ground swell fills into SoCal, peaking Monday the 11th from this storm that formed more than a week ago south of French Polynesia (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
That wasn't a great course for SoCal swell but the fetch housed impressive 35-40' seas. We'll get a glancing blow of energy (the angular spread I show in Wave by Wave). The result should be chest high sets at south facing breaks by Monday the 11th (some pluses are possible). Swell should stay angled from 195-200° with periods up to 18 seconds Monday. This swell should run chest high Tuesday the 12th, waist to chest Wednesday the 13th, and then waist high Thursday the 14th.
Thursday the 14th (building day) into Friday the 15th should see light NW ground swell from this system diving southeast in the Gulf (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
WIth only 15-18' seas we normally wouldn't see much, but that course is ideal, directing a fair amount of swell energy at SoCal. Running the numbers this morning works out to waist to chest high sets at west facing breaks, angled from 295° and periods 12-13 seconds.
Friday the 15th, as the Gulf NW continues, we should see the first of a few pulses of moderately sized southern hemi ground swell from a series of small-scaled systems that were riding this ideal northward bend in the southern jetstream (model by NOAA MAG):
Three back-to-back storms traversed that storm track, each with modest seas in the 20' range. Normally from that distance we'd see very little swell, but that course and distance resulted in a fair amount of energy being sent to SoCal. Size should run waist to chest high at south facing breaks from Friday the 15th through Sunday the 17th, angled from about 190° and periods 14-15 seconds.
Sunday the 17th, when the last pulse of southern hemi comes ashore, we should see an increase in NW swell. First — but least — should be NW ground swell from this system near the Aleutians on the 2-day models (model from NOAA OPC):
That works out to chest high waves at west facing breaks Sunday the 17th, but angled at 305° so some west facing breaks would see less size. Periods from that should run 15 seconds. But this may get overshadowed by bigger NW wind swell as this windy pattern may develop along the coast (model by UQAM):
It's a common springtime pattern where strong surface high pressure off the coast butts up against an opposingly strong inland surface low (red arrows). A tight pressure gradient would form along the coast with strong winds dipping into SoCal latitudes (white box). That wind-gust model's red areas represent wind gusts 40-45 mph just off Pt. Conception and west of the Channel Islands. That would be enough to create wind swell upwards of head high at SoCal's west facing breaks Sunday the 17th (building day) into Monday the 18th (peak). Being a close-proximity event this will take more time to nail down.
In any event, it looks like all swell energy will back off Tuesday the 19th with a smaller day Wednesday the 20th.
Thursday the 21st is the next potential swell for SoCal from this system coming out of the Western Pacific on the 5-day outlook (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
Other models like the GFS say nay, but that NFCENS model is bullish enough to call for chest high waves at west facing breaks, angled from 305° and periods 15 seconds. But without model consensus, doubt runs. I'm sure models will converge closer to some kind of scenario over the next couple days. Either way, Thursday the 21st should see light southern hemi in the background from a small system that peaked near New Zealand and another skirting the ice pack around Antarctica. At waist max each they're hardly worth a graphic for today's report, but it should be enough, along with potential NW wrap, to keep south facing breaks from going completely flat Thursday the 21st.
Sunday the 24th could see moderately sized SW ground swell from this system near New Zealand on the 3-day (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
So far, that holds potential for waist to chest high sets at south facing breaks, angled from 215° and periods 15-16 seconds.
Looking out further on the long range, I wanted to give an update on the developing El Niño that's back in the headlines. The media is once again sticking with the "Super El Niño" label for this year's ENSO event. While I avoid hyperbole, recent model runs are tipping — so far at least — into the "very strong" category for this year's El Niño (model from NOAA CPC)
While a "strong" El Niño is around 1.5-2°C, a "very strong" Niño starts at 2°C. That thick dashed line above shows the model mean, topping out at 3.5°C, which would be historic. By comparison, the El Niño of 2015-16 measured 2.6°C, and the 1997-98 was 2.4°C. So at 3°C+, this year's El Niño could have a much higher "signal", but it doesn't guarantee catastrophic weather (or surf). For instance, something I talk about in Surf, Flood, Fire & Mud is that while we usually see bigger surf during an El Niño winter, it's often after a strong El Niño that we get the highest rain amounts (from the neutral-Niño spans). On top of this, we are still dealing with a Marine Heat Wave near SoCal, which could further enhance the tropical systems (and swells) we see during El Niño summers.
But we're very early in the year and I favor science over sensationalism. So while the headlines are riddled with an end-of-the-world El Niño, there are slivers of truth to their coverage; however, they are based on forecasts — not measurements. This does warrant a close watch though. I'll stick to the science and see how things develop (and measure) in the coming weeks and months. There's a lot to monitor but as long as I have your support then I can continue to keep an eye on the Pacific to keep you posted. Please remember this report is funded by reader donations and your help is essential to keep it alive.
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Here's a brief look at how the next few days are breaking down so far:
Monday the 11th looks about chest high at south facing breaks (some pluses are possible at standouts) and waist high at west facing spots.
Tuesday the 12th looks about chest high at south facing breaks and waist high at west facing spots.
Wednesday the 13th looks about waist to chest high at south facing breaks and waist high at west facing spots.
Thursday the 14th is expected to run waist to chest at west facing breaks and waist high at south facing spots.
Friday the 15th looks about chest high at most spots.
Saturday the 16th looks about chest max at south facing breaks and waist high at west facing breaks.
Sunday the 17th holds potential for sizable NW wind swell, possibly up to head high at west facing breaks. This will determine swell for a few days after so I'll hold off for now to allow models to align...I'll have more in my next report.
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Weather Outlook:
Today (Sunday the 10th) we have an interesting pattern developing for SoCal, which will create changes in our weather this week (model by NOAA MAG):
Right now, moderately strong high pressure (blue arrow) is over a good portion of the American Southwest, but it's having an inverse effect at the coast. While Palm Springs has been in triple digits, the rapidly rising hot air has created one heck of a thermal inversion (that thickening agent I show in Wave By Wave). Right now, air temps a mile above the SoCal coast are 15°F warmer than at the surface, making for a very strong inversion, helping to keep marine layer in place. At the same time, outer water winds have ginned up a coastal eddy to add more moisture to the mix. Welcome to May Gray. There will be blue-sky breaks, but some days will have more gloom than others, which brings us to Act II on that model.
The red arrow shows a low pressure system sagging south in the Gulf of Alaska, which is just a few days away from arriving along the west coast. This is expected to stay just north of SoCal when it swings through the state Wednesday the 13th. This should increase the onshore flow big time as the ridge of high pressure moves east. A thicker marine layer is expected for a couple days after. A flat, zonal flow should develop in its wake, keeping a fairly strong onshore flow in place.
Long range models show a semi-wet trough of low pressure pushing through SoCal around the middle of next week with light precip chances. Given the time of year, rain seems unlikely, but I'll see how it goes.
Taking all of this into account, here's how I'm calling SoCal beach weather for the next few days:
Today (Sunday the 10th) should see marine layer dissipate late morning, but it may hug portions of the VC coast, possibly elsewhere at times this afternoon. Beach max temps should hover in the mid 60s.
Monday the 11th should see morning marine layer with a burn-off by noon in most areas, but with marine layer sticking around at some spots possibly until early to mid afternoon. Beach max temps should reach the mid to upper 60s.
Tuesday the 12th should see a robust AM marine layer that may not dissipate until mid to late afternoon. Max beach temps should reach the mid to upper 60s.
Wednesday the 13th looks cloudy, especially in the morning with not just marine layer, but upper-level clouds too. Much of the marine layer should dissipate early to mid afternoon as high clouds pass. Beach max temps should reach the mid to upper 60s.
Thursday the 14th should see AM marine layer, late morning burn-off, and max beach temps in the upper 60s.
Friday the 15th should see AM marine layer, mid to late morning burn-off, and max beach temps in the upper 60s.
Wind Outlook:
Winds
at 7:00 AM were light and variable most everywhere. Onshores are expected this afternoon 8-12 mph.
Monday the 11th should see AM light and variables with afternoon onshores 8-12 mph.
Tuesday the 12th should see AM light and variables with afternoon onshores 8-12 mph.
Wednesday the 13th should see AM light and variables with afternoon onshores 10-15 mph.
Thursday the 14th should see onshores in the early AM 4-8 mph, picking up throughout the morning, reaching 15-20 mph in the afternoon.
Until my next report (Tuesday), take care, be safe, and smile in the lineup!
