SoCal Forecast
Updated most Sundays, Tuesdays, and Thursdays
Thursday 7/2/26 6:55 AM
By Nathan Cool
Surf Charts for SoCal
Rincon | Ventura, C-St. | County Line | Malibu | Hermosa | Huntington BeachTrestles | Old Mans | Oceanside | Beacons | Sunset Cliffs
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At a glance:
Today (Thursday the 2nd) we have a moderate mix of SW ground swell and NW wind swell in SoCal. Southern hemi swell picks up a bit Friday the 3rd. Tropical swell should be in the mix Sunday the 5th. Moderately sized southern hemi is due by the middle of next week, which should last for a few days. Lighter southern hemis are in the forecast. Condition-wise: marine layer pattern remains in place along the coast; winds trend onshore; tide levels are evening out; and water temps are fair.
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Current Conditions:
Early this morning, periods were primarily running 17 seconds from 200° and 11 seconds from 315°.
Most south facing breaks were running waist to chest high. Direct west facing spots were mostly waist high.
Buoys in the outer waters were running 6'. Nearshore buoys were averaging 2'.
Tide levels are relaxing from the recent swing. Today we have a -0.5' low around 6:00 AM, a 3.6' high around 12:30 PM, a 2.5' low around 5:00 PM, and a 5.5' high around 11:00 PM.
Water temps were running 67-69° around most of SD and OC. LA was running 65-68°. In VC, Channel Islands Harbor reported 63° last night. In SB, Stearns Wharf reported 60° this morning.
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Surf Forecast:
Today (Thursday the 2nd) moderately sized, long-period SW ground swell is filling in, which will peak tomorrow from this system that was hugging the ice pack about ten days ago (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
This should produce chest max sets at south facing breaks Friday the 3rd, angled from 200°. This swell should continue Saturday the 4th with chest high sets at south facing spots. A lower latitude storm that formed behind it should keep waist to at times chest high waves going at south facing breaks Sunday the 5th and Monday the 6th.
Sunday the 5th and Monday the 6th along with the southern hemisphere ground swell, we should also see southerly swell from Tropical Storm Douglas, which has stayed the course with this weakish fetch (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
Douglas is traveling ideally to the north for SoCal swell, but with only 12' seas we're looking at waist high waves at south facing breaks, angled from 205° and periods 10 seconds. Southern hemisphere ground swell should be equal to or slightly bigger than that, so Douglas should present as added, shorter-period waves in the mix Sunday the 5th and Monday the 6th.
Tuesday the 7th (building quickly) into Wednesday the 8th should see SW ground swell from this system that peaked a few days ago near New Zealand (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
That system had moderate loss from its angular spread (page 52), so calculations work out to chest+ swell at south facing breaks, angled from 210° and periods 19 seconds. Standouts may see some head high pluses out of this Wednesday the 8th and Thursday the 9th. In fact, Thursday the 9th should see an additional southern hemisphere swell in the mix from other activity that formed to the east of that storm, which could create pluses from constructive interference (page 84), making Thursday the 9th the day most likely to see occasional head high pluses at south facing spots. This swell should then run about chest high Friday the 10th; chest high Saturday the 11th; waist to chest Sunday the 12th; and waist high Monday the 13th.
Note there is a chance of wind swell from Tuesday the 7th through Friday the 10th as a storm passes through the PNW and its trough sags far enough south to kick up winds off the NorCal/CCal coasts. This will likely stay quite far to the north of SoCal with seas around 9' west of SoCal's islands. That would result in about waist+ wind swell at west facing breaks. Southern hemi wrap would likely out do that, but I'll see how this goes over the next few days.
Tuesday the 14th is the next southern hemi on the charts from this weak system drifting north off Antarctica, south of Pitcairn (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
With just 25' seas, that'd produce waist high waves at south facing breaks, angled from 185° and periods 15 seconds. This swell would continue Wednesday the 15th.
Thursday the 16th remains on track (so far) for light SW ground swell from this storm trekking northeastward in the Tasman Sea (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
That's a good 7,400 miles from SoCal, so a good deal of energy will be lost as the swell travels to SoCal. Energy would also get soaked up by numerous islands in the South Pacific. So far, this looks like a waist high swell for south facing breaks, angled from 230° and periods 15 seconds.
Friday the 17th continues to hold potential for hurricane swell, but only if one can trust the 14-day models showing this robust storm moving through SoCal's tropical swell window (model by NOAA MAG):
Aside from having warmer than normal waters off Baja to help fuel any hurricane that would form, northward guidance would be aided by a large dome of high pressure (blue circle) swirling clockwise. It's a textbook pattern for hurricane swell for SoCal, yet this is far too early to call this morning and needs more monitoring. But as long as I have your support then I can continue to keep an eye on the Pacific to keep you posted. Please remember this report is funded by reader donations and your help is needed to keep this report alive (see why here).
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Here's a brief look at how the next few days are breaking down so far:
Friday the 3rd looks about chest max at south facing breaks and waist max at west facing spots.
Saturday the 4th looks about waist to chest high at south facing breaks and waist max at west facing breaks.
Sunday the 5th looks about waist high at south facing breaks with occasional chest high pluses. West facing breaks should run waist high.
Monday the 6th looks about waist to at times chest high at south facing breaks and waist high at west facing breaks.
Tuesday the 7th is expected to run chest high at south facing breaks.
Wednesday the 8th is expected to run chest+ at south facing spots.
Thursday the 9th looks about chest+ at south facing breaks. Head high pluses are likely at standouts.
Friday the 10th, so far, looks about chest high at south facing breaks.
Saturday the 11th, so far, looks about chest high at south facing spots.
Sunday the 12th, so far, looks about waist to chest at south facing breaks.
Monday the 13th, so far, looks about waist high at south facing breaks.
Tuesday the 14th, so far, looks about waist high at south facing spots.
Wednesday the 15th, so far, looks about waist high at south facing spots.
Thursday the 16th, so far, looks about waist high at south facing spots.
Weather Outlook:
Today (Thursday the 2nd) a low pressure trough continues to sag south into SoCal. This trough will lift to the north over the next few days as high pressure slowly fills into the region. A coastal eddy spun up last night (page 135) and continues to churn as outer water winds off SB/VC were running upwards of 20 mph this morning. The eddy is thickening the marine layer once again today. Meanwhile, a small tropical system drifting northward should introduce high clouds into the mix Friday the 3rd into Saturday the 4th. No rain is expected, but tropical moisture and clouds could disrupt the marine layer a bit. Once that tropical moisture is gone Monday the 6th, the usual pattern for marine layer development should take hold from a thermal inversion created by inland warming (page 131). High pressure will likely weaken by the middle of next week as a storm passes through the PNW with its trough pushing south toward SoCal. While none of these are earth-shattering weather features for the coast, a more notable trend for SoCal could get underway by Monday the 13th when a strong ridge of high pressure is forecast to encompass a good portion of the American Southwest. This would bring a heatwave to inland areas, which could kick off a strong inversion at the coast.
Taking all of this into account, here's how I'm calling SoCal beach weather for the next few days:
Today (Thursday the 2nd) should see AM marine layer with a burn-off by late morning and max beach temps in the upper 60s.
Friday the 3rd should see AM marine layer that will likely dissipate early as tropical clouds drift overhead. Max beach temps should reach 70°.
Saturday the 4th should see AM marine layer replaced early by a cloud deck of tropical moisture, making for a partly- to mostly-cloudy day. Max beach temps should reach the upper 60s.
Sunday the 5th should see AM marine layer with a burn-off midmorning and max beach temps in the upper 60s.
Monday the 6th should see AM marine layer with a burn-off late morning and max beach temps in the upper 60s.
Tuesday the 7th should see AM marine layer with a burn-off by noon and max beach temps around 70°.
Wind Outlook:
Winds
at 7:00 AM were light and variable most everywhere along the coast. Onshores should pick up to 10 mph by noon and run 15 mph by early to mid afternoon.
Friday the 3rd should see AM light and variables, onshores by noon to 10 mph, and then 15 mph in the afternoon.
Saturday the 4th should see AM light and variables, onshores by noon to 10 mph, and then 15 mph in the afternoon.
Sunday the 5th should see AM light and variables, onshores by noon to 10 mph, and then 15 mph in the afternoon.
Monday the 6th should see AM light and variables, onshores by noon to 10 mph, and then 15+ mph in the afternoon.
Until my next report (Sunday), take care, be safe, and smile in the lineup!
