SoCal Forecast
Updated most Sundays, Tuesdays, and Thursdays
Thursday 5/7/26 6:20 AM
By Nathan Cool
Surf Charts for SoCal
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At a glance:
Today (Thursday the 7th) we have a mix of fading NW ground swell and background southern hemi swell in SoCal. An initially light mix of NW and SW swells is due this weekend. But a better sized SW ground swell builds Sunday the 10th into Monday the 11th. Light NW and SW ground swells are being watched for late next week. A moderate mix of NW and SW ground swells is being tracked for the 20th. And more southern hemi is being watched on the long range. Condition-wise: fair weather ahead with warming; winds an issue for some spots; tide levels are slow moving; and water temps are fair for this time of year but upwelling could return.
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Current Conditions:
Early this morning, periods were primarily running 12 seconds from 195° and 15 seconds from 200°.
Most west facing breaks were running waist to at times chest high. South facing spots were about waist max.
Buoys in the outer waters were running 6'. Nearshore buoys were running 1.8' (south facing) to 2.5' (west facing).
Tide levels are fair and slow moving right now. Today we have a 0.5' low around 8:30 AM that will slowly rise to a 4.5' high around 1:00 AM Friday.
Water temps have been fluctuating due to off-and-on upwelling from recent outer water winds. Winds will continue in the outer waters for a few more days so additional upwelling is possible, but not likely severe for most of SoCal. SD and OC were running 61-64°. LA was mostly 50-62°. In VC, USCG readings were once again unavailable. SB Harbor reported 57° late yesterday.
Surf Forecast:
Today (Thursday the 7th) we're seeing fading NW ground swell from an Aleutian system that formed more than a week ago, peaking in SoCal Tuesday. As this swell fades, minor southern hemisphere ground swell has come ashore, helping south facing breaks from going completely flat.
Friday the 8th should see NW wind swell build, more so Saturday the 9th from this windy pattern you might recall from earlier reports this week developing along the west coast (model by UQAM):
For the short term, this will affect winds and weather over the next few days, and I'll get to that in the Weather and Wind sections below. As for swell, this should create wind swell waves upwards of chest high at west facing breaks by Saturday the 9th.
Saturday the 9th into Sunday the 10th, along with NW wind swell, we should also see spotty NW ground swell from this high latitude system that spun off Kamchatka a few days ago (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
That works out to waist to chest high waves at SoCal's west facing breaks Saturday the 9th into Sunday the 10th, angled from a fairly steep 305° with periods 15-16 seconds. Along with this and the wind swell, we should also see light SW ground swell from a very low latitude storm that was skirting the ice pack around Antarctica. This should help south facing breaks with waist high waves this weekend, angled from 210° and periods 16 seconds.
So told: Saturday the 9th should run up to chest high at west facing breaks and waist high at south facing breaks. But as this mix of swell continues on its last leg Sunday the 10th, a better sized southern hemi should start filling in.
Sunday the 10th (building day with forerunners) into Monday the 11th should see decent sized SW ground swell from this storm that peaked a few days ago south of French Polynesia (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
That wasn't a great course for SoCal swell but the fetch housed impressive 35-40' seas. We'll get a glancing blow of energy (the angular spread I show in Wave by Wave). The result should be chest high sets at south facing breaks by Monday the 11th with swell building — and occasional forerunners — Sunday the 10th. Swell should be angled from 195-200° with periods 18-19 seconds (forerunners would run up to 20 seconds on Sunday). This swell should continue at chest high Tuesday the 12th, and then drop to waist to chest Wednesday the 13th, and waist high Thursday the 14th.
Thursday the 14th (building day) into Friday the 15th will likely see light NW ground swell from this system diving southeast in the Gulf (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
Models downgraded that this morning to 15-18' seas. If not for that course toward SoCal, this would be a non-starter. But working on the numbers on the 3-day models, west facing breaks would be looking at waist+ waves, angled from 295° and periods 12-13 seconds.
Friday the 15th through Sunday the 17th should see a few pulses of moderately sized southern hemi ground swell from a series of small-scaled systems riding this ideal northward bend in the southern jetstream (model by NOAA MAG):
Three back-to-back storms traversed that storm track over the past couple days, each with modest seas in the 20' range. Normally from that distance we'd see very little swell, but that course and distance will result in a fair amount of energy making it to SoCal. Size should run waist to chest high at south facing breaks from Friday the 15th through Sunday the 17th, angled from about 190° and periods 14-15 seconds. This swell should back off Monday the 18th.
Next, a moderately sized NW-SW combo swell is looking promising for the 20th. Before getting to that, in case you missed it from my earlier reports I wanted to quickly announce the release my new book Wave By Wave : A surfer's guide to forecasting and our connection to the sea. Here's a little about it if you'd like to check it out:
New Release: Wave By Wave
Take a journey into the hidden forces behind every swell and the ocean's connection to our human experience. After more than 30 years of tracking storms across the Pacific, Nathan Cool's latest book, Wave By Wave, takes you beyond basic swell prediction and into the deeper story behind the surf. From distant, powerful storms to the moment a wave breaks, you'll learn how to read the ocean with confidence and discover how these rhythmic forces bind us to the sea with a deeper sense of meaning.
Get the BookAnd now back to the report...
Wednesday the 20th is looking like the next window of wave opportunity in SoCal as both hemispheres show something surf-worthy. First up on the 3-day models is this activity near New Zealand, moving ideally to the north (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
Models have tossed around a few scenarios the past few days, aligning on this one today. The topmost fetch is the one to watch for the 20th. Housing 25-30' seas from that distance works out to waist to chest high waves at south facing breaks, angled from 220° with periods 15-16 seconds. There's also a low latitude storm near the ice pack on the 5-day models that could put waist high waves into the mix Wednesday the 20th with periods 20 seconds. But we might see better size at west facing breaks; if, that is, one can put their faith in this 9-day model (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
Early calculations work out to chest high sets at west facing breaks Wednesday the 20th into Thursday the 21st, angled from 300° and periods 15 seconds. I'll need more time on this one.
Looking further ahead on SoCal's long range surf horizon, the weekend of the 23rd-24th has rays of surfable hope from this system near New Zealand (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
Based on the 6-day models, that would work out to chest high sets at south facing breaks, angled from 215° and periods 17 seconds. This and other storms on the long range need more monitoring, but as long as I have your support then I can continue this report to keep you posted. Please remember this report is funded by reader donations and your help is essential to keep it alive.
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Here's a brief look at how the next few days are breaking down so far:
Friday the 8th looks about waist max everywhere, with wind swell building late in the day.
Saturday the 9th is expected to run upwards of chest high at west facing breaks and waist high at south facing spots.
Sunday the 10th looks about chest max at west facing breaks and waist high at south facing spots; however, southern hemi forerunners are likely at south facing spots.
Monday the 11th looks about chest high at south facing breaks and waist high at west facing spots.
Tuesday the 12th looks about chest high at south facing breaks and waist high at west facing spots.
Wednesday the 13th looks about waist to chest high at south facing breaks and waist high at west facing spots.
Thursday the 14th, so far, is expected to run waist+ at most breaks.
Friday the 15th, so far, looks about chest max at south facing breaks and waist high at west facing breaks.
Saturday the 16th, so far, looks about chest max at south facing breaks and waist high at west facing breaks.
Sunday the 17th, so far, looks about waist to at times chest high at south facing breaks and waist max at west facing spots.
Monday the 18th, so far, looks about knee to waist at most breaks.
Tuesday the 19th, so far, looks about knee to waist at most breaks.
Wednesday the 20th holds potential for a combo of NW and SW ground swells. I'll have more on that in my next report.
Weather Outlook:
Today (Thursday the 7th) high pressure is building into the American Southwest, which should help warm up air temps now through early next week. But a springtime wind pattern is in place, shown here on this low-res wind gust model for this afternoon (model by UQAM):
At the surface we have a strong high pressure system off the coast (1024) and an opposingly strong low inland (1007). Between them is a fairly tight pressure gradient, fueling the wind machine. Those winds are northerly and should stay mostly off the coast. However, winds will howl around Pt. Conception, with Gaviota seeing gusts over the next few days to 40 mph, along with sundowner winds in the evening. But once you get east and south of Isla Vista, the rest of SoCal is looking at moderate winds. However, this doesn't mean the winds won't affect SoCal weather.
The winds over the next few days will help to scour-out marine layer early, making it a time when "if it's clear, then winds are near". Marine layer is making a comeback as we have a thermal inversion over SoCal, measuring a good 10° warmer a mile up than at the surface near the coast. This would normally put a lid on the incoming marine moisture, acting as a thickening agent. But the springtime winds should mix up the air enough to hinder marine layer development, keeping burn-offs early (something I illustrate btw in Wave By Wave).
After high pressure peaks over the American Southwest Monday the 11th (across the 4-Corners, actually), the high should weaken by Wednesday the 13th and move east. As it does, models show either a trough of low pressure or cut-off low approaching the west coast. Either way it looks moisture starved with no rain for SoCal — just an increase in onshore flow, cooler temps, marine layer, etc.
Taking all of this into account, here's how I'm calling SoCal beach weather for the next few days:
Today (Thursday the 7th) should see little to no morning marine layer with an early burn-off. Max beach temps should reach the upper 60s.
Friday the 8th should see AM marine layer with clearing mid to late morning and max beach temps in the upper 60s.
Saturday the 9th should see AM marine layer with midmorning burn-off and max beach temps in the upper 60s.
Sunday the 10th should see morning marine layer with a midmorning burn-off and max beach temps around 70°.
Monday the 11th should see morning marine layer with a late AM burn-off and max beach temps around 70°.
Tuesday the 12th should see AM marine layer, burn-off by noon, and max beach temps in the upper 60s.
Wind Outlook:
Winds
at 6:00 AM were light and variable most everywhere. Onshores should increase to 15 mph by noon or early afternoon. However, winds near Pt. Conception from Gaviota west should increase to over 25 mph mid to late afternoon with gusts to 40 mph this evening.
Friday the 8th should see AM light and variables with a slight onshore element, and afternoon onshores to 15 mph. Winds will once again be strong from Gaviota west by late afternoon, gusting to 40 mph in the evening.
Saturday the 9th should see AM light and variables with a slight onshore effect and afternoon onshores 10-15 mph, up to 20 mph from Gaviota west.
Sunday the 10th should see fairly calm winds in the morning and afternoon onshores 8-12 mph.
Until my next report (Sunday), take care, be safe, and smile in the lineup!
