SoCal Forecast
Updated most Sundays, Tuesdays, and Thursdays
Thursday 9/10/26 4:25 AM
By Nathan Cool
Surf Charts for SoCal
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At a glance:
Today (Thursday the 10th) we have remnant swell from Marie in SoCal as moderately sized southern hemi swell fills in, peaking Friday the 11th. NW wind swell is due Sunday the 13th. Norbert has formed but not doing much for SoCal surf. Light to moderate southern hemi is due Wednesday the 16th into Thursday the 17th. Tropical swell is being watched for the 19th. Wind swell is possible by the 20th. Light southern hemis may follow. And there's an official update on El Niño today. Condition-wise: weather shifts by the weekend; wind stronger this weekend; a tidal swing is underway; and water temps have dipped in some spots while warming in others.
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Current Conditions:
Early this morning, periods were primarily running 12 seconds from 190° and 17 seconds from 215°.
Most south facing spots were running chest to head high. Direct west facing breaks were mostly waist to chest high.
Buoys in the outer waters were running 5'. Nearshore buoys were hovering around 2.5', but some southerly energy was coming through at times up to 3.5'.
Tide levels are swinging wide from tonight's New Moon. Today we have a -0.5' low around 4:00 AM, a 5.5' high around 10:00 AM, a 1' low around 3:30 PM, and a 6' high around 9:30 PM.
Water temps were running 70-73° in most of SD. OC was slightly cooler at 66-71°. LA was hovering around 73°. In VC, Channel Islands Harbor reported 73° last night. In SB, Stearns Wharf reported 71° this morning.
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Surf Forecast:
Today (Thursday the 10th) Marie's swell is fading while SW ground swell fills in from from this system that formed near New Zealand about nine days ago (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):
This swell should peak at south facing breaks Friday the 11th with chest high waves at south facing breaks, angled from 215° and periods 16 seconds. Along with that southern hemi we should also see WSW swell from Lowell, which strengthened and retrograded to Hawaii earlier this week (image from NOAA GOES):
Although devastating for parts of the Hawaiian islands, SoCal will get just a glancing blow of swell energy Friday the 11th with size in the waist high range at many west and south facing spots, angled from 250-260° and periods 16 seconds. Southern hemi though will be the dominant swell Friday.
Saturday the 12th, as the southern hemi lingers to a lesser degree, minor swell from Norbert should start to come ashore, although it'll be hard to notice (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):
Moving almost directly west with 12' seas, SoCal's south facing breaks should see just knee to waist high waves, angled from 175° and periods 8-11 seconds. The lingering southern hemi should out do that with waist to chest high waves at south facing breaks Saturday the 12th.
Sunday the 13th should see Norbert peak and southern hemi fade, both running waist high at south facing breaks. However, we could see a decent dose of NW wind swell as this trough of low pressure (red circle) dives south into SoCal, housing a potent low passing through the PNW (model by NOAA MAG):
Size is coming in at chest high at west facing breaks Sunday the 13th and chest+ Monday the 14th. This would be short-period stuff (7-10 seconds), angled from the wind-swell-usual ≥300°. This wind swell should back off to waist to chest Tuesday the 15th and then waist high Wednesday the 16th.
Wednesday the 16th (building day) into Thursday the 17th (peak) should see light to moderate southerly ground swell from this system that was south of French Polynesia (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):
That wasn't an ideal course for SoCal swell, which works out to waist to chest max waves at south facing breaks, angled from 195° and periods 17 seconds. This swell should linger Friday the 18th and back off Saturday the 19th.
Friday the 19th could see light to moderate tropical swell from this system on the 7-day models (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):
So far, that's looking like a waist to chest high swell for south facing breaks, angled from 200° and periods 12 seconds. There's still a ways to go on this one and I should have a much better idea in a few days.
Sunday the 20th could be an interesting day for SoCal surf and weather as models show this low diving south into SoCal (model by NOAA MAG):
That would bring much cooler weather, but also enough wind to kick up chest+ wind swell at west facing breaks. Being on the 10-day makes this far too early to call right now; in fact, models yesterday showed this being an inside-slider low (page 121). I'm sure models will tighten up a single solution in the next few days.
Sunday the 20th (building day) into Monday the 21st (peak) — wind swell or no — we should see SW ground swell from this activity near New Zealand (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):
Earlier models were calling for a Tasman Sea system followed by another one east of New Zealand. But all models today are onboard with this scenario that's just 24 hours out. Being blocked by New Zealand means we'll see only a fraction of its swell. Running the numbers this morning works out to just waist high waves at south facing breaks, angled from 220° and periods 17 seconds. This swell should continue Tuesday the 22nd through Thursday the 24th as it continues to progress northeastward, yet weaken over the next few days.
Friday the 25th through Sunday the 27th look like much smaller days in the SoCal surf zone right now. Even the extended long range ensembles show a temporary lapse in Pacific storms that would otherwise bring swell to SoCal around this time — by the looks of things today, that is.
Monday the 28th is the next swell on my charts this morning from this New Zealand storm taking an ideal northerly course into high latitudes (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):
So far, that holds potential for waist to chest high sets at south facing breaks, angled from 220° and periods 14 seconds.
Looking out further on the long range, NOAA released their official El Niño forecast today, giving El Niño a slight upgrade (image from NOAA CPC):
The black line shows the mean forecast strength, peaking in October, November, December (OND) at about 2.6°C. By comparison, the El Niño of 2015-16 measured 2.6°C, and the 1997-98 Niño was 2.4°C. So this year's El Niño might meet or exceed those events' signal strength. But this doesn't dictate a repeat of the same weather and waves we experienced in the past.
El Niño does increase the chance for above normal rainfall and powerful NW ground swells in SoCal as the warm waters in the El Niño zones influence the weather pattern in the North Pacific. This pattern places the jetstream at a lower latitude, lined up with SoCal, thus driving storms and swells directly our way. On top of El Niño though, we also have an unusual marine heat wave (MHW) near us, which is merging with El Niño's warm waters (model from NOAA Coral Reef Watch):
Yet even this offers no guarantee of a storm- and swell-packed winter. Case in point: the hyped "Godzilla" El Niño of 2015-2016 brought lower than normal rainfall to SoCal. In fact, the real torrents arrived the following winter, long after El Niño had exited the stage (something I talk about in Surf, Flood, Fire & Mud). So while Marie's impacts whipped recent headline hyperbole into a wilder frenzy, it's important to remember that weather doesn't follow a script. Yes, El Niño is strong and strengthening. Yet while this increases the chance for an active winter of waves and weather, ocean warming does not preordain an atmospheric response in a linear, predictable fashion. After all, the strongest El Niño recorded up to this point brought little to no drought relief, and a winter with few epicly sized NW swells. That could change this time around, so El Niño's state and forecast are harbingers to signal immediate preparations.
All of this needs a lot more monitoring. But as long as I have your support then I can continue to keep an eye on the Pacific to keep you posted. Please remember this report is funded by reader donations and your help is crucial to keep it alive (see why here).
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Here's a brief look at how the next few days are breaking down so far:
Friday the 11th should run chest high at south facing breaks.
Saturday the 12th looks about waist to chest high at most breaks.
Sunday the 13th looks about chest high at west facing breaks and waist high at south facing spots.
Monday the 14th looks about chest+ at west facing breaks and waist high at south facing spots.
Tuesday the 15th looks about waist to chest high at west facing spots and waist high at south facing spots.
Wednesday the 16th looks about waist to at times chest high at south facing spots, smaller at west facing breaks.
Thursday the 17th, so far, looks about waist to chest at south facing spots.
Friday the 18th, so far, looks about waist to chest at south facing breaks.
Saturday the 19th, so far, looks about waist to chest at most breaks.
Sunday the 20th, so far, looks about chest+ at west facing breaks, smaller at south facing spots.
Weather Outlook:
Today (Thursday the 10th) strong high pressure is centered over SoCal as remnant moisture from Marie is drawn in, making for a hot and muggy day in much of SoCal. There are even slight chances of precip in SD and OC today from Marie's remnants. That high will break down tonight and move to the southeast, more so Friday the 11th into Saturday the 12th as a trough of low pressure works its way south toward SoCal, increasing the onshore flow each day. This will also increase onshore winds starting Saturday (see below).
On Sunday the 13th, the trough of low pressure will be pushing into SoCal, increasing the onshore flow even more. A slightly weaker troughing pattern should persist into early next week before moderate high pressure returns to the 4-Corners region. This should warm temps starting midweek, but not to the heatwave strength we've seen recently.
After that high breaks down late next week, we could see a low dive into SoCal, shown here again to save you from scrolling (model by NOAA MAG):
That would increase the onshore flow significantly with much cooler weather and notable marine layer over the weekend of the 19th-20th...by the looks of things so far.
Taking all of this into account, here's how I'm calling SoCal beach weather for the next few days:
Today (Thursday the 10th) should see mostly clear skies and max beach temps in the low 80s. There is a slight chance for brief rain in OC and SD.
Friday the 11th should see clear skies and max beach temps in the upper 70s.
Saturday the 12th should see AM marine layer with a burn-off by mid to late morning and max beach temps in the mid 70s.
Sunday the 13th should see AM marine layer with a burn-off by late morning and max beach temps in the low to mid 70s.
Monday the 14th should see AM marine layer with a burn-off by late morning and max beach temps in the low 70s.
Tuesday the 15th should see AM marine layer with a burn-off by late morning and max beach temps in the low 70s.
Wind Outlook:
Winds
at 7:00 AM light and variable most everywhere along the SoCal coast. Afternoon onshores should run 7-11 mph.
Friday the 11th should see AM light and variables with afternoon onshores 8-12 mph.
Saturday the 12th should see AM light and variables, picking up by noon to 10 mph, 15 mph early afternoon, and up to 20 mph mid to late afternoon.
Sunday the 13th should see AM light and variables with afternoon onshores to 15 mph.
Until my next report (Sunday), take care, be safe, and smile in the lineup!
