SoCal Forecast
Updated most Sundays, Tuesdays, and Thursdays
Thursday 1/29/26 5:45 AM
By Nathan Cool
Surf Charts for SoCal
Rincon | Ventura, C-St. | County Line | Malibu | Hermosa | Huntington BeachTrestles | Old Mans | Oceanside | Beacons | Sunset Cliffs
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At a glance:
Today (Thursday the 29th) is starting out with moderately sized NW ground swell but size should increase throughout the day as the next NW ground swell fills in, peaking Friday the 30th. A bigger NW swell is due by Monday the 2nd. A sizable NW ground swell is being tracked for Thursday the 5th into Friday the 6th. Another NW ground swell is being watched for the 9th. Light southern hemis may come ashore shortly after. Condition-wise: still no rain in sight; offshore trend continues; stronger Santa Ana possible by the middle of next week; a tidal swing is underway; and water temps are warmer than normal for this time of year.
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Current Conditions:
Early this morning, periods were primarily running 14 seconds from 300° with occasional 18- to 20-second periods from 290°.
Most west facing breaks were running chest high. South facing spots were mostly waist high. Size should increase later today.
Buoys in the outer waters were running 8'. Nearshore buoys were running 1.7' (south facing) to 2.5' (west facing).
Tide levels are swinging wide as we approach a Full Moon Sunday the 1st. Today we have a 6' high around 6:00 AM, a -1.5' low around 1:30 PM, and a 3.5' high around 8:00 PM. By the weekend, that early morning high will run about 7' after sunrise and lows will be nearly -2' in the afternoon. With a water depth difference of about Δ9', conditions, size, and the position of the line-up will change hour by hour.
Water temps continue to run slightly warmer than normal for this time of year. Water temps were running 60-62° in most of SD and OC. LA was running 58-60°. In VC, Channel Islands Harbor reported 61° overnight. In SB, Stearns Wharf reported 60° this morning.
Surf Forecast:
Today (Thursday the 29th) NW ground swell is slowly filling in and will peak Friday the 30th from the first in a series of NW ground swells headed our way, thanks to a well-positioned jetstream guiding storms out of the Western Pacific. This first notable swell is from this fetch you might recall from earlier reports, peaking with 25-30' seas before turning north (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
By Friday the 30th when this swell peaks, most west facing breaks should run head high to 2' overhead with swell angled from 295° and periods 16 seconds. This swell should linger in the head high range Saturday the 31st.
A Note on Conditions: Size on Friday's swell — and others that'll follow — will be affected hour to hour from a radical tidal swing. That swing is underway now and will swing wider over the next few days. The water depth in the surf zone will vary by as much as Δ9' from high to low tide, changing conditions quickly each hour, potentially shutting down some spots near the high and low tide times.
Sunday the 1st should see the next NW swell from the first of these two back-to-back systems (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
Swell for Sunday the 1st is the warm-up round, producing head high waves at SoCal's west facing breaks, angled from 295° with periods 16 seconds.
Monday the 2nd should then see an increase in NW ground swell as the second system is taking a temporary, lower latitude course, directing more of its swell energy toward SoCal (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
Running the numbers this morning on the 24-hour models, size is coming in at 1-3' overhead at west facing breaks Monday the 2nd, with some pluses near DOH possible at standout spots. Swell should be angled from 280-285° with periods 16 seconds. Although this is on the short range models, all models are aligned and consistent so I'm confident to call it. In any case, this swell should linger at head high to 2' overhead Tuesday the 3rd. Wednesday the 4th should drop to chest high with occasional head high pluses.
Thursday the 5th will likely start out at chest to head high but NW ground swell could fill in, peaking Friday the 6th from this hefty fetch entering our ideal swell window along the Aleutian-Hawaiian longitude (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
That's a slight departure from earlier models and it's now five days out. Being on the medium range outlook puts this into higher confidence but it needs more monitoring. Right now, this is looking strong enough to put most of SoCal's west breaks into surf running 2-4' overhead Friday the 6th with some outlier models showing enough strength for DOH sets. This swell could continue with similar size Saturday the 7th and dip temporarily to head high+ Sunday the 8th. Swell would be angled from 290° with periods 18 seconds.
Monday the 9th could see the next NW ground swell as models continue to show the jetstream staying at surf-worthy latitudes, guiding more storms out of the Western Pacific like this one on the 8-day outlook (model from NOAA OPC):
Some models show only 25' seas whereas the more bullish models exceed 30'. Taking the middle ground, this would produce head high sets at west facing breaks Monday the 9th, angled from 290° and periods 16 seconds. This swell would likely continue with similar size Tuesday the 10th and maybe even Wednesday the 11th. It's around this time that southern hemisphere ground swell could come ashore, including this system on the 5-day models (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
That's a long way from SoCal at 5,800 nautical miles (about 6,600 miles). It's also moving nearly directly to the east, so we'd get a mere glancing blow of energy from its 35' seas. That'd result in chest high waves at south facing breaks Thursday the 12th, angled from 205° and periods 18 seconds. But if the North Pacific stays hyperactive then the SW swell would be equal in size to NW swell wrapping into south facing spots.
There's a lot going on across the Pacific that needs more monitoring. But as long as I have your support then I can continue watching the Pacific to keep this report going and keep you posted.
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Here's a brief look at how the next few days are breaking down so far:
Friday the 30th is expected to run head high to 2' overhead at west facing breaks.
Saturday the 31st looks about head high at west facing breaks.
Sunday the 1st is expected to run head high at west facing breaks.
Monday the 2nd is expected to run 1-3' overhead at west facing breaks.
Tuesday the 3rd looks about head high+ at west facing breaks.
Wednesday the 4th looks about chest to at times head high at west facing breaks.
Thursday the 5th, so far, will likely start out at chest to head high at west facing breaks with swell building late in the day.
Friday the 6th, so far, looks about 2-4' overhead at west facing breaks.
Saturday the 7th, so far, looks about 2-4' overhead at west facing breaks.
Sunday the 8th, so far, looks about head high to 2' overhead at west facing breaks.
Monday the 9th, so far, looks about head high at west facing breaks with pluses possible.
Tuesday the 10th, so far, looks about head high at west facing breaks.
Wednesday the 11th, so far, looks about chest to head high at west facing breaks.
Weather Outlook:
Today (Thursday the 29th) there's still no rain in sight for SoCal, at least until Sunday the 15th, but even that's a long shot right now. High pressure remains dominant over the American West, thwarting NorthPac storms to the north, keeping them away from SoCal. High pressure will wax and wane each day through the forecast; however, models (for now) show a stronger high across the west coast by Wednesday the 4th, which could produce a notable Santa Ana. I'll need a few more days to see how models align.
Taking all of this into account, here's how I'm calling SoCal beach weather for the next few days:
Today (Thursday the 29th) looks clear. Beach max temps should reach the low to mid 70s.
Friday the 30th should be clear with beach max temps in the mid 70s.
Saturday the 31st should be clear with beach max temps in the low to mid 70s.
Sunday the 1st may see thin AM marine layer but with a quick burn-off, followed by occasional high clouds but mostly sunny skies. Beach max temps should cool to the upper 60s.
Monday the 2nd is expected to see AM marine layer with an early- to mid-morning burn-off, then partly cloudy skies, and max beach temps in the low 60s.
Tuesday the 3rd is expected to see AM marine layer, midmorning burn-off, and max beach temps in the mid to upper 60s.
Wednesday the 4th, so far, looks clear as a Santa Ana develops. I'll have more on that in my next report.
Wind Outlook:
Winds
at 6:00 AM were lightly offshore in many spots, although Leo Carillo (an offshore wind-prone spot) reported a few gusts from the NE around 20 mph. Offshore winds may pick up a bit slightly throughout the morning before shifting onshore this afternoon to 10 mph.
Friday the 30th should see light AM offshores 5-10 mph and afternoon onshores 5-10 mph.
Saturday the 31st should see light AM offshores 5-10 mph and afternoon onshores 5-10 mph.
Sunday the 1st should see light AM offshores 5-10 mph and afternoon onshores 5-10 mph.
Monday the 2nd should see light AM offshores 5-10 mph and afternoon onshores 5-10 mph.
Tuesday the 3rd should see light AM offshores 5-10 mph and afternoon onshores 5-10 mph.
Wednesday the 4th may be the start of a Santa Ana...more on that in my next report.
Until my next report (Sunday), take care, be safe, and smile in the lineup!
