SoCal Forecast
Updated most Sundays, Tuesdays, and Thursdays
Thursday Apr. 25, 2024 5:45 AM
By Nathan Cool
Surf Charts for SoCal
Rincon | Ventura, C-St. | County Line | Malibu | Hermosa | Huntington BeachTrestles | Old Mans | Oceanside | Beacons | Sunset Cliffs
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At a glance:
Today (Thursday the 25th) we have light to moderate southern hemisphere ground swell in SoCal with background wind swell. NW wind swell picks up Friday the 26th into the weekend as SW swell fades. More NW wind swell is being watched for early next week. Spotty NW ground swell is becoming possible for the 6th. Moderate SW ground swell is being watched for the 8th. And more southern hemi could follow a few days later. Condition-wise: early-season May Gray clears in a few days; winds problematic at times; tide levels are moderate for the most part; and water temps are fair but there's a chance for upwelling this weekend.
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Current Conditions:
Early this morning, periods were primarily running 15 seconds from 185° and 10 seconds from 315°.
Most south facing breaks were running waist to chest high. West facing spots were mostly waist max.
Buoys in the outer waters were running 4'. Nearshore buoys were averaging 2.5' with southern hemi measuring about 2' on the spectrum.
Tide levels are moderate for daytime sessions despite a Full Moon a couple days ago. For daytime sessions this will only affect the early AM sessions with slightly negative tides. Today we have a -0.5' low around 5:00 AM, a 3.4' high around 11:30 AM, a 1.8' low around 4:00 PM, and a 5.5' high around 10:30 PM.
Water temps were running 60-62° in most of SD yesterday. OC was running 59-61°. LA was mostly 58-60° but Zuma reported lower last night at 56°. In VC, Channel Islands Harbor reported 59° overnight. SB Harbor reported 58° overnight. Note that water temps may drop over the weekend as strong outer water winds could cause upwelling along the coast.
Surf Forecast:
Today (Thursday the 25th) we're on the tail end of the recent SW ground swell from a system that was in the deep low latitudes near Antarctica about two weeks ago. This will fade further Friday the 26th, which is when the first in a series of NW wind swells fills into SoCal.
Friday the 26th (building day) into Saturday the 27th should see NW wind swell as this trough of low pressure digs very far south into SoCal (model by NOAA MAG):
That's a dry trough with no measurable rain expected, but enough to bring drizzle-plus to many areas, especially SD. Swell-wise, this should kick up enough wind along the coast to make for chest to head high wind swell waves at west facing breaks Saturday the 27th, angled from the wind-swell-usual ≥300° with periods 8-10 seconds. This should drop to about chest max Sunday the 28th, but another round of wind swell could be waiting in the wings.
Monday the 29th and Tuesday the 30th have been waffling on the models this week, but this morning's models agree on NW wind swell in SoCal Monday the 29th as a very cold low pressure system enters the Pacific Northwest, butting up against much warmer upper air temps sitting over California and Nevada (model by UQAM):
Even though SoCal will be under a weak onshore flow early next week — a flat, zonal flow actually — that below-freezing air mass a mile above sea level (-10°C, 15°F), would create one heck of a strong temperature gradient along the west coast as it butts-up against warmer air over eastern CA and NV where 70°F air would reside in the atmosphere. That would make for a Δ55° temperature gradient, which is drastic enough to create very strong winds along the west coast. By the looks of things today, with models in good agreement (finally), west facing breaks are looking at chest+ wind swell waves Monday the 29th, about chest max Tuesday the 30th, and waist max Wednesday the 1st. Wind swell once again would be angled from the usual ≥300° with periods 8-10 seconds.
Thursday the 2nd into Friday the 3rd could see the next round of NW wind swell as this more traditional trough of low pressure pushes south to SoCal from the Gulf of Alaska (model by NOAA MAG):
So far that's looking like a chest+ wind swell event for west facing breaks, but being out past 150 hours puts this in the watch-and-wait category for now.
Thursday the 2nd (building day) into Friday the 3rd should see light southerly ground swell as the jetstream around Antarctica temporarily developed this northward "bulge" to guide storms off Antarctica, sending swell toward SoCal (model from ECMWF):
Waist max is the call for south facing breaks, which may be overshadowed by NW wrap from the potential wind swell around that time. Swell would be angled from 180° with periods 15 seconds. Wind swell may back down over the weekend of the 4th-5th, which is when this and other minor southern hemi activity may be more noticeable, but once again topping out at waist max.
Monday the 6th, which was originally slated for more southern hemi, may instead see spotty NW ground swell from this distant, high latitude system off the tip of the Aleutian Chain (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
That NFCENS model is the most bullish today, which would work out to chest max waves at west facing breaks, angled from a steep 310° with periods 15 seconds. This would have few waves per set and long lulls between sets. Most models cap this at a waist max event, but it's out on the 5-day models so I'll need a few more days to see how it goes.
Wednesday the 8th is the next swell on my charts this morning from this high latitude system on the 5-day models near French Polynesia (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
With seas in the 25-30' range, south facing breaks would be looking at chest max sets, with swell angled from 190° and periods 16 seconds. This too needs more monitoring over the next few days, since it has changed — and been delayed — slightly from earlier model runs.
Sunday the 12th is the next potential swell on my charts this morning from activity near New Zealand, but models are too far apart to start working the numbers, especially since we're talking about 7-day-plus projections, with some models showing earlier formation. I'll need to see how this develops over the coming days, but as long as I have your support then I'll be able to keep this report going to keep you posted (more on that here).
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Here's how the day-to-day is breaking down so far:
Friday the 26th looks about chest high at west facing breaks in the morning with swell building during the day. South facing breaks will rely on wrap.
Saturday the 27th looks about chest to at times head high at west facing breaks from wind swell. South facing breaks will rely on wrap.
Sunday the 28th looks about chest max at west facing breaks.
Monday the 29th looks about chest+ at west facing breaks.
Tuesday the 30th looks about chest high at west facing breaks.
Wednesday the 1st, so far, looks about waist high at west facing breaks.
Thursday the 2nd, so far, looks about chest max at west facing breaks as NW wind swell would build.
Friday the 3rd, so far, looks about chest+ at west facing breaks.
Saturday the 4th, so far, looks about chest max at west facing breaks.
Sunday the 5th, so far, looks about waist high everywhere.
Monday the 6th may see spotty NW ground swell with occasional chest high waves at west facing breaks (by the looks of things so far).
Weather Outlook:
Today (Thursday the 25th) is another heavy onshore day with burn-offs hard to come by in many spots, and morning drizzle likely. Max beach temps should top out in the low 60s.
Friday the 26th should see a very heavy cloud deck with morning marine layer and upper level clouds in the morning, and clearing in the afternoon as strong NW winds increase to scour-out the marine layer. This will be one of those "If skies are clear then winds are near" kind of days. Max beach temps should once again be in the low 60s. Morning drizzle is possible.
The weekend should clear out as low pressure moves east, but Saturday the 27th will likely see some morning marine layer with a burn-off mid to late morning, and max beach temps in the mid 60s. Sunday the 28th looks clearer with air temps a tick or two higher.
Monday the 29th looks clear as NW winds in the outer waters should scour-out any marine layer that forms. Beach max temps should reach the mid to upper 60s.
Wind Outlook:
Winds
at 6:00 AM (Thursday the 25th) were lightly onshore 5-10 mph in many spots. Onshores are expected to start out around 15 mph this afternoon, and increase to 20+ mph mid to late afternoon.
Friday the 26th is expected to see AM onshores 5-10 mph and afternoon onshores to 20-25 mph south of LA, but at least 25 mph north of LA; in fact, gusts may reach 40 mph at times around the wind-prone areas of SB mid to late afternoon. This, btw, has the highest chance of causing upwelling, which would make for the potentially cooler water temps this weekend.
Saturday the 27th should see AM onshores to 10 mph in most spots, a bit stronger north of LA. Afternoon onshores are expected to run 15-20 mph.
Sunday the 28th is looking at much lighter winds: slightly offshore in the morning 5-10 mph and onshore in the afternoon to 10 mph.
Monday the 29th, so far, looks similar.
Until my next report (Sunday), take care, be safe, and smile in the lineup!
