SoCal Forecast
Updated most Sundays, Tuesdays, and Thursdays
Sunday Apr. 28, 2024 6:30 AM
By Nathan Cool
Surf Charts for SoCal
Rincon | Ventura, C-St. | County Line | Malibu | Hermosa | Huntington BeachTrestles | Old Mans | Oceanside | Beacons | Sunset Cliffs
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At a glance:
Today (Sunday the 30th) NW wind swell is on the rise and will increase Monday. Smaller surf is on tap for the second half of the week. Decent sized SW ground swell is due by the middle of next week. NW wind swell could come ashore then too. And SW ground swell is being watched for the 12th. Condition-wise: fair weather this week with shifting winds; light precip teases the long range; tide levels are moderate; and water temps are varied from upwelling.
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Current Conditions:
Early this morning, periods were primarily running 10 seconds from 315° and 15 seconds from 200°.
Most west facing breaks were running waist to chest high (and rising). South facing spots were mostly waist max.
Buoys in the outer waters were running 10', rising sharply over the past few hours. Nearshore buoys were running 1.8' (south facing) to 3' (west facing).
Tide levels are moderate. Today we have a -0.2' low around 7:30 AM, a 2.7' high around 3:00 PM that will barely budge to a slackwater 2.8' low around 5:00 PM, then rise to a 5' high around midnight.
Water temps are fluctuating from the recent wind-induced upwelling, and we might feel a bit more upwelling over the next couple of days. Outer water temps have dropped about 3-4°, but many nearshore spots have barely moved the mercury. Yesterday, most of SD was running 59-61°. OC was hovering around 58°, although the usually-warmer San Clemente Pier reported 62°. In LA, the Santa Monica buoy dropped to 55° at one point this morning but many nearshore temps were coming in between 57-60°. In VC, Channel Islands Harbor reported 60° overnight. In SB, Stearns Wharf reported 56° this morning.
Surf Forecast:
Today (Sunday the 28th) NW wind swell is already on the rise as this very cold, low-pressure system has made an earlier-than-anticipated arrival into the Pacific Northwest, butting up against much warmer upper air temps sitting over California and Nevada (model by UQAM):
Even though SoCal is under a weak onshore flow right now, that below-freezing air mass a mile above sea level (-10°C, 15°F), is creating one heck of a strong temperature gradient along the west coast as it butts-up against warmer air over eastern CA and NV where 60-70°F air resides in the atmosphere. That's creating a ~Δ50° temperature gradient, which is drastic enough to create very strong winds along the west coast to stir up sizable wind swell. On Monday the 29th, west facing breaks are looking at chest to at times head high wind swell waves, becoming a bit more consistent Tuesday the 30th in the chest to head high range. Size should be more along the lines of chest high Wednesday the 1st, and drop to waist to chest high Thursday the 2nd, smaller Friday the 3rd. This will be angled from the wind-swell-usual ≥300° with periods around 10 seconds.
Thursday the 2nd into Friday the 3rd was originally slated for more wind swell, but models today have taken what would have been a partially over-water low and turned it into a dry inside-slider, with not enough strength (or direction) to whip up wind swell. Instead, models show an offshore flow Thursday the 2nd with some models a bit bullish on offshore winds, but either way not enough to kick up wind swell. Instead, small southern hemi is expected to build Thursday the 2nd into Friday the 3rd as the jetstream around Antarctica temporarily developed this northward "bulge" last week to guide storms off Antarctica (model from ECMWF):
Waist max is the call for south facing breaks Friday the 3rd. With wind swell now looking nil, south facing breaks should have the best size, with west facing breaks down to knee high or so. The light southern hemi should be angled from 180° with periods 15 seconds. Waist max waves should continue at south facing breaks Saturday the 4th and Sunday the 5th, possibly Monday the 6th as well.
Tuesday the 7th (building day) into Wednesday the 8th (peak day) should see SW ground swell from this high latitude system near French Polynesia (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
Models have upgraded that system, which is now just 24 hours out from reaching its peak, making it a confident call for chest to head high sets at south facing breaks, angled from 200° with periods 18 seconds. This swell should linger in the chest max range Thursday the 9th and back off Friday the 10th. But, there's a catch.
Tuesday the 7th may also see a robust round of NW wind swell as many models show this large low pressure system making an advance on the west coast (model by NOAA MAG):
Some models show that low getting close enough to bring light precip to SoCal on the 6th or 7th, but being out on the 7-day models makes waves and weather hard to call with confidence. At this point there's a 40% chance of seeing head high wind swell at west facing breaks Tuesday the 7th, lingering to varying degrees for a couple days after. But it's too early to make that call right now; I'll need a few more days to see how models converge.
Sunday the 12th is the next swell on the charts right now as the 4-day models today have stayed fairly consistent with runs last week on this activity near New Zealand (model by FNMOC):
That's a good 6,000 nautical miles from SoCal, so its 30' seas would produce chest max sets at south facing spots. Sets would be spotty as well with few waves per set and long lulls between sets. Swell would be angled from 215° with periods 16 seconds. Still, I need a few more days to confirm so I'll keep an eye on it and as long as I have your support then I'll be able to keep this report going to keep you posted (more on that here).
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Here's how the day-to-day is breaking down so far:
Monday the 29th looks about chest to head at west facing breaks.
Tuesday the 30th looks about chest to head high at west facing breaks.
Wednesday the 1st should run chest high at west facing breaks.
Thursday the 2nd should run waist to at times chest high at west facing breaks.
Friday the 3rd should run waist high at most breaks.
Saturday the 4th should run waist high at south facing breaks and knee to waist at west facing spots.
Sunday the 5th looks similar.
Monday the 6th, so far, looks about waist max everywhere.
Tuesday the 7th, so far, is expected to run chest to at times head high at south facing spots as southern hemi swell fills in. NW wind swell is in question, but it could run as high as head high at west facing breaks (more on that in my next report).
Weather Outlook:
Today (Sunday the 28th) through Wednesday the 1st will be under a weak onshore flow, but the thermal inversion is weak over SoCal from a cold low to the north so beaches should be mostly clear today through Wednesday with little to no morning marine layer. Beach max temps should run in the mid to upper 60s.
Thursday the 2nd sees a low pass to the north, but some models show this taking a slide southward through the California interior, making for an inside-slider kind of Santa Ana (a NNE wind event). In fact, the GFS model calls for a >5mb offshore flow (on a scale of 1-10), but most models keep this weak. My call will be for mostly clear skies with beach max temps in the upper 60s to right around 70°. Friday looks similar.
The weekend of the 4th-5th should see the return of an onshore flow as the inside-slider low moves east. Morning marine layer comes back into the picture for Saturday the 4th and Sunday the 5th with mid to late AM burn-offs and max beach temps in the mid to upper 60s.
Monday the 6th and/or Tuesday the 7th might see light precip as a low in the Pacific advances to the west coast. This doesn't look like a wet system, with rain highly scattered. Many models keep this low to the north of SoCal, showing it falling apart before reaching the west coast. I'd put a low chance on "measurable" precip in SoCal, but it deserves additional monitoring over the next few days.
Wind Outlook:
Winds
at 6:00 AM (Sunday the 28) were lightly offshore at most beaches 3-7 mph. Onshores should pick up by noon and reach 15 mph this afternoon, but up to 20 mph late in the afternoon.
Monday the 29th should see AM light and variables with early afternoon onshores to 15 mph, then up to 20 mph late afternoon.
Tuesday the 30th should once again see AM light and variables with early afternoon onshores to 15 mph, and up to 20 mph late afternoon.
Wednesday the 1st should see light AM offshores 3-8 mph and afternoon onshores to 10 mph.
Thursday the 2nd could see somewhat stronger offshore winds...I'll have more on that in my next report.
Until my next report (Tuesday), take care, be safe, and smile in the lineup!
