SoCal Forecast
Updated most Sundays, Tuesdays, and Thursdays

Thursday 11/12/26 5:54 AM
By Nathan Cool

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At a glance:
Today (Thursday the 12th) we have a good deal of NW ground swell in SoCal but much bigger surf is on the way. An increase in NW ground is due Friday the 13th before a much bigger ground swell hits SoCal this weekend. Another NW ground swell is expected Monday the 16th. NW wind swells are being watched for the second half of next week. And there's an official update on El Niño today that I'll break down in today's report. Condition-wise: rain is on the way; winds problematic at times; tide levels are leveling off but sea levels have increased; water temps have warmed slightly; and advisories are in effect.

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Current Conditions:
Early this morning, periods were primarily running 13 seconds from 295°.

Most west facing breaks were running head high with pluses at standouts running 1-2' overhead at times. Direct south facing spots were mostly chest high from diffraction (page 77), bigger at SW exposed spots.

Buoys in the outer waters were running 7-8'. Nearshore buoys were running 2.3' (south facing) to 3.3' (west facing).

Water temps warmed slightly in many spots and are at least 10°F warmer than usual for this time of year. Most beaches in SD and OC were running 73-75°. LA was mostly 72-74°. In VC, Channel Islands Harbor reported 72° last night. In SB, Stearns Wharf reported 72° this morning.

Tidal Advisory: Tide levels are leveling off from the recent swing and will relax further over the next few days. However, above normal water temps have increased sea levels further today to 17-19" higher than normal in SoCal. So the 5' predicted high tides (in the tide tables) are more along the lines of 6.5'. This is a concern with the approaching NW swells, which could cause tidal overflows, coastal flooding, and beach erosion, possibly compounded by storm surge.

Hazard Warnings: NW ground swell will continue to increase the risk of rip currents, especially at west facing beaches and during outgoing tides. Coastal flooding is a concern. And strong winds at times will create gale hazards for mariners. The NWS has issued numerous advisories for SB, VC, and LA here and OC and SD here.

Water Contact Advisory: A number of rain events are expected over the next few days that will increase the risk of contamination from runoff in the surf zone. As a reminder, there is a risk of high bacteria levels for at least 72 hours following any measurable rain event (usually 0.1" or more) during which time water contact should be avoided.

Surf Forecast:
Today (Thursday the 12th) the most recent NW ground swell is on the way out but bigger surf is approaching SoCal.

Friday the 13th should see the next NW swell from this system that took a fairly low latitude course to the west coast (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):

That should start filling in tonight, peaking Friday the 13th. Seas in that fetch measured 30', which works out to surf running 2-3' overhead at west facing breaks in SoCal Friday. Swell should be angled from 295° and periods 16-17 seconds. Note that weather and wind conditions come into question starting Friday the 13th, more so over the weekend (see Weather and Wind sections below).

Saturday the 14th should see that swell continue in the morning. But by late morning we should see much bigger swell from this system that's pumping up 45' seas right now, and should continue to do so tomorrow at just 1000 nautical miles from SoCal (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):

The initial hit on SoCal equates to 11:00 AM Saturday the 14th; however, rogue wave forerunners should arrive sooner (page 43). West facing breaks are looking at face heights in the 13-16' range with bigger waves possible at times. Swell should be angled from 300° with periods initially 20 seconds. This swell will introduce a number of hazards with high consistency, strong rip currents, along shore currents, and rogue waves. And although the predicted high tides this weekend will be in the 5' range, higher than normal sea levels will result in actual tide levels in the 6.5' range, increasing the chance for coastal flooding and beach erosion. Storm surge may increase those tide levels further. Rain runoff could increase bacteria contamination in the surf zone as well.

Sunday the 15th should see this swell level off to about DOH at most west facing breaks, with swell slowly diminishing throughout the day.

Monday the 16th should see this swell back down in the morning to around 1-3' overhead. But by midmorning the next NW swell should arrive from this system on the 2-day projection (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):

With 37' seas on that course, SoCal's west facing breaks are looking at sets running 3-4' overhead by mid to late morning. Standouts can expect DOH pluses. Swell should be angled from 295° and periods 18 seconds. This swell should continue in the AM Tuesday the 17th and back down later in the day. Wednesday the 18th should see a further decline to about head high at most west facing breaks (with pluses at standouts).

Thursday the 19th and/or Friday the 20th could see a robust round of NW wind swell as models show this large, windy trough of low pressure retrograding over SoCal (model by NOAA MAG):

Retrograding lows — moving east to west, opposing the normal west-east jetstream flow — are notoriously unstable on long range models as they break from the norm. Still, all models are aligned on this system being partially over water, which signals rain (see Weather section below). As for swell, that low looks windy enough to kick up head high-ish wind swell at west facing breaks, although conditions would be questionable.

Monday the 23rd may see a similar round of wind swell. While that's in question on the extended long range models, the short-range, 2-day outlook shows light to moderate SW ground swell from this system hugging the ice cap (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):

That works out to chest max sets at south facing breaks, angled from 200° and periods 16 seconds. If we get NW swell in at least the head high range around that time then its wrap could make the southern hemi hard to notice.

On the longer range: NOAA released their official monthly El Niño forecast today, which continues to show El Niño could weaken as we get into the winter months (model from NOAA CPC)

This year's El Niño strength officially reached 2.5°C, which is right under the 2015 El Niño (2.6°C) and slightly above the 1997-98 El Niño (2.4°C). But this strength refers to the last 3-month span (August, September, October). As you might recall from my last report, NOAA's weekly assessment from Monday showed El Niño strength dipped slightly last week to 2.3°C. Model trends, in fact, continue to show that El Niño may have peaked earlier than expected, with the green arrow showing where we are right now (model from NOAA CPC)

NOAA's PDF corrected models have been aligned for a few weeks, showing El Niño could weaken before our bigger-surf and heavier-rain months of January and February. And today's official assessment shows there's now only a 35% chance that El Niño would be above 2°C after the first of the year.

This may shift the heavier winter swells and weather from El Niño to occur earlier than normal. Yet El Niño would still be strong enough after the first of the year to support heavy rain and swells. El Niño though could be on its last leg then.

For the near term, concern continues from the marine heat wave (MHW) off SoCal, which is now reaching toward Canada (model from NOAA Coral Reef Watch):

Although El Niño would weaken in the coming months, the marine heat wave could last much longer since it started well before El Niño got underway. In fact, that marine heat wave started in 2025, warmed during the summer of 2026 from inland heatwaves, and was able to sustain warmth from a lack of NW wind this year that would normally cause cold-water upwelling off the coast. Kelvin Waves from this year's El Niño added to this warmth; however, those were only a portion of that (more on that here).

With the marine heat wave so well established, it could cause a long-term issue as its thermal expansion has raised sea levels to 1.5'+ above normal. This is further compounded by an 18.6-year nodal lunar cycle that is creating higher tides this year, including king tides reaching 7.5' around the Christmas holiday. Add another 1.5' on top of that from sea-level rise and we have a 9' high tide Christmas Eve and Christmas Day.

The Pacific is in an exceptionally hyperactive state right now. There's a lot to monitor over the coming days, weeks, and months, but as long as I have your support then I can continue to watch the Pacific to keep you posted. Please remember this report is funded by reader donations and your help is needed to keep it alive (see why here).

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Here's a brief look at how the next few days are breaking down so far:

Friday the 13th should run 2-3' overhead at west facing spots.

Saturday the 14th is expected to run a couple feet overhead at west facing breaks in the early morning but then DOH-TOH by mid to late morning. Face height estimates for west facing breaks are expected to run 13-16' on average when this swell hits by late morning.

Sunday the 15th is expected to run at least DOH at west facing breaks.

Monday the 16th should start out slightly overhead at west facing breaks for the dawn patrols, but then upwards of DOH by mid to late morning.

Tuesday the 17th looks about 3-4' overhead at west facing breaks.

Wednesday the 18th, so far, looks about 1-2' overhead at west facing breaks.

Thursday the 19th, so far, looks about head high+ at west facing breaks from wind swell.

Friday the 20th, so far, looks similar.

Saturday the 21st, so far, is looking at smaller surf.

 

Weather Outlook:
Today (Thursday the 12th) high pressure is breaking down as a series of rain storms line up for SoCal. At first, rain should be light and there will be plenty of blue-skie breaks. But as we move forward through the forecast, rain amounts should be somewhat heavier; however, no gully washers are in the forecast right now. Each of these rain events could create stronger than normal winds, which I'll break down in the Wind section below.

As for rain, the first round should be light from a cut-off low (green arrow) followed by the tail end of a northern low (red arrow) that should bring rain starting tonight (model from ECMWF):

Rain will likely start around midnight tonight but be spotty with some areas not seeing much if any rain. Rain would fall off-and-on Friday the 13th, ending early morning Saturday the 14th. Total rain is coming in at 0.1" at the low end (GFS model) and up to 0.5" at the high end (ECMWF).

Most of the day Saturday the 14th and all day Sunday the 15th look dry as a small ridge of high pressure builds over SoCal.

Monday the 16th sees a trough of low pressure make its way into SoCal, which will likely bring rain throughout the day Monday the 16th into Tuesday the 17th, ending later in the day Tuesday. Most models show 0.1-0.25" of rain from this round. After a break Tuesday afternoon into the morning of Wednesday the 18th, we may see rain late Wednesday or early Thursday the 19th from this windy trough mentioned earlier, shown here again to save you from scrolling (model by NOAA MAG):

That's a bit early to call, especially taking a retrograding course over land, not directly from the Pacific.

Longer range models show rain potential for Thanksgiving Day, but that's a yellow pin in the charts for now. I'll see if/how this develops in the coming days.

Taking all of this into account, here's how I'm calling SoCal beach weather for the next few days:

Today (Thursday the 12th) should see a thin marine layer, quick burn-off, and max beach temps in the mid 70s. There is a chance for light rain in the evening.

Friday the 13th should see a fair amount of cloud cover, light rain off and on throughout the day, and max beach temps in the low 70s.

Saturday the 14th could see rain in the early morning but end mid to late morning, leading to partly cloudy skies. Beach max temps should reach the upper 60s.

Sunday the 15th should be dry. Some AM marine layer is likely and skies could cloud up later in the day. Max beach temps should reach the upper 60s.

Monday the 16th will likely see rain. Max beach temps should reach the mid to upper 60s.

Tuesday the 17th, so far, is looking at rain in the early morning with clearing midmorning. Beach max temps should reach the mid to upper 60s.

Wednesday the 18th, so far, looks fairly clear, no rain, and max beach temps in the mid to upper 60s.

Thursday the 19th, so far, is looking at possible rain. More on that in my next report.

 

Wind Outlook:
Winds at 6:00 AM were light and variable most everywhere with a slight offshore element. Onshores are expected this afternoon to 10 mph.

Friday the 13th is expected to see AM light and variables turning onshore by noon to 10 mph, then increase by midafternoon 15-20 mph onshore, stronger in the evening.

Saturday the 14th is looking at AM onshores to 10 mph, 15 mph onshore by noon, and 20-25 mph onshore by midafternoon.

Sunday the 15th is expected to see AM light and variables with afternoon onshores 10-15 mph.

Monday the 16th, so far, is expected to see AM onshores in the morning 5-10 mph, increasing to 15 mph by noon, 20-25 mph mid afternoon, and up to 30 mph in the evening.

 

Until my next report (Sunday), take care, be safe, and smile in the lineup!

—Nathan

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