SoCal Forecast
Updated most Sundays, Tuesdays, and Thursdays
Thursday July 25, 2024 6:30 AM
By Nathan Cool
Surf Charts for SoCal
Rincon | Ventura, C-St. | County Line | Malibu | Hermosa | Huntington BeachTrestles | Old Mans | Oceanside | Beacons | Sunset Cliffs
Subscribe to be notified:
Get notified when this report is updated.
At a glance:
Today (Thursday the 25th) we have mostly light to moderate southern hemisphere ground swell in SoCal with background NW wind swell. Wind swell picks up this weekend. A couple of minor southern hemi swells are due next week. NW wind swell may become dominant during the second half of next week. And hurricane swell is becoming likely for 8/4. Condition-wise: marine layer thickens temporarily in a few days; winds stronger in some areas over the next few days; another tidal swing is around the corner; and water temps continue to fluctuate.
|
|
|
Current Conditions:
Early this morning, periods were primarily running 15 seconds from 180-185° and 10 seconds from 315-320°.
Most south facing breaks were running waist to at times chest high. Direct west facing spots were about waist high.
Buoys in the outer waters were running 5'. Nearshore buoys were running 1.9-2.4'.
Tide levels are recuperating from Sunday's Full Moon; however, afternoon highs will deepen over the next few days as another swing gets underway from a New Moon 8/4. Today we have a -0.2' low around 7:00 AM, a 4.8' high around 1:30 PM, and a 2' low around 7:30 PM.
Water temps were running 67-70° around most of SD yesterday. OC was hovering around 68° but Huntington Beach continues to report lower at 64°. LA remains highly varied with Hermosa reporting 70° yesterday while Zuma reported 59°. Santa Monica Pier has been running 59-64° over the past 24 hours. In VC, Channel Islands Harbor reported 63° this morning. In SB, Stearns Wharf reported 58° this morning.
Surf Forecast:
Today (Thursday the 25th) and Friday the 26th will see a minor to moderate flow of southern hemi swells from this storm and this storm that formed near Pitcairn about two weeks ago. Neither was momentous, but this should continue to bring waist to at times chest high waves so south facing breaks Friday. NW wind swell will remain low Friday but that will change over the weekend.
Saturday the 27th should see minor to moderate NW wind swell from this pattern you might recall from my earlier reports this week, which will also affect our weather and hurricane swell that I'll get to in a sec. The pattern (and its portents) can be seen from space this morning (image from NOAA GOES):
At the top, the red arrow is pointing to a trough of low pressure that will sag south toward SoCal over the next few days. Farther south, the white arrow shows a dry cut-off low that is also moving toward SoCal. TS Bud is shown here as well, which I'll get to shortly. But for the weekend wind swell, that northern trough and the cut-off low will meet and merge off the coast Friday, shown here on this GFS model (model by NOAA MAG):
This will increase the onshore flow for a cooler weekend (more on that in the Weather section below). As for swell, this will create wind swell off the coast that should provide west facing breaks with waist to chest max waves Saturday the 27th, backing off to waist max Sunday the 28th and then smaller Monday the 29th.
Tuesday the 30th should see southern hemisphere ground swell start to come ashore from this bend in the southern hemi jetstream that started guiding storm activity northward a few days ago (model by FNMOC):
As wind swell lingers to a lesser degree early next week, south facing breaks should see waist high waves from the first storm in that pattern Monday the 29th, improving to waist+ Tuesday the 30th, angled from 185° and periods 14-15 seconds. A second storm should provide waist to at times chest high waves Thursday the 1st into Friday the 2nd, but angled steeper from 170-175° (with periods 15 seconds) making it tougher for some south facing breaks.
Thursday the 1st through Sunday the 4th could see moderately sized NW wind swell as strong surface high pressure over the Pacific (blue arrow) butts-up against strong low pressure (red arrows) inland (model by UQAM):
A tight pressure gradient would form (the black contour lines) which would kick up strong winds (the brown and yellow areas) mostly off NorCal and CCal. This would kick up chest high wind swell for west facing breaks, building Thursday the 1st, peaking Friday the 2nd through Saturday the 4th.
At the same time, we may see a trio of tropical storms take shape, with two of them poised to send southerly swell to SoCal (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
While naming is in question, it does appear that the potential swell-makers for SoCal would be Carolotta and Daniel (models differ on Bud backing off and Carlotta becoming that more westerly storm). In either case, that storm off the tip of Baja could bring southerly swell to SoCal by Sunday the 4th, or, it may be delayed until Tuesday the 6th, depending on the model one chooses to use this morning. Although wind swell formation off the west coast typical signals a no-go for hurricane swell — as that would usually mean a cold trough of low pressure would push south to thwart the hurricane track to the west (not north) — this surf-worthy (and heatwave) pattern is very likely to form (model by NOAA MAG):
A massive area of high pressure with a strong 601mb core (exceeding the excessive heatwave 600mb mark) would spin clockwise in just the right position to swirl a hurricane north (circled in red). With so many models aligning on this scenario, confidence continues to climb. Still, we're looking at models more than seven days out, making this too early to call. I'll keep an eye on it and as long as I have your support then I'll be able to keep this report going to keep you posted.
|
|
|
Here's how the day-to-day is breaking down so far:
Friday the 26th looks about waist to at times chest at south facing spots, smaller at west facing breaks.
Saturday the 27th is expected to run waist to at times chest high at west facing breaks and waist high at south facing spots.
Sunday the 28th is expected to run waist to at times chest high at west facing breaks and waist high at south facing spots.
Monday the 29th looks about waist high at most spots.
Tuesday the 30th looks about waist high at most spots, but with occasional pluses at south facing breaks.
Wednesday the 31st looks about waist high everywhere.
Thursday the 1st, so far, looks about waist to chest high at west facing breaks and waist high at south facing spots.
Friday the 2nd, so far, looks about chest high at west facing breaks and waist high at south facing spots.
Saturday the 3rd, so far, looks about chest high at west facing breaks and waist high at south facing spots.
Sunday the 4th holds potential for hurricane swell, although some models delay that until Tuesday the 6th. I'll have more on that in my next report.
Weather Outlook:
Today (Thursday the 25th) strong high pressure centered near Arizona is at its peak. A thermal inversion is underway but marine layer should burn-off mid to late morning with max beach temps in the low to mid 70s.
Friday the 26th should see a low pressure trough dig south toward SoCal as a dry cut-off low merges with it while high pressure weakens and moves southeast. Morning marine layer should burn-off by noon with max beach temps in the low 70s.
Saturday the 27th, as the trough digs farther south, beaches should see a later burn-off, likely by early afternoon in most spots with max beach temps in the upper 60s to low 70s.
Sunday the 28th should see the peak of the onshore flow from the passing trough and cut-off low. Burn-off may be tough for many spots with beach max temps in the upper 60s to low 70s.
Monday the 29th and Tuesday the 30th look similar but things should start to change Wednesday the 31st. That's when the heatwave high starts to build over the U.S. (the one guiding Carlotta north shown above), but at the same time, the thermal inversion is expected to strengthen. As an inland heatwave gets underway Wednesday the 31st through the second half of next week, the marine layer — thickened by the thermal inversion — may get disrupted by injections of tropical moisture (which can inhibit marine layer development). I'll need to see how models deal with this over the next few days.
Wind Outlook:
Winds
at 6:00 AM (Thursday the 25th) were light and variable most everywhere with a bit of a southerly element in some spots. Afternoon onshores should run up to 15 mph in many spots, stronger at times at wind-prone spots from LA north.
Friday the 26th should see AM light and variables with afternoon onshores to 15 mph in many spots, but up to 20 mph from LA north.
Saturday the 27th should see AM light and variables with afternoon onshores 10-15 mph.
Sunday the 28th should see AM light and variables with afternoon onshores 10-15 mph.
Monday the 29th should see AM light and variables with afternoon onshores 10-15 mph.
Until my next report (Sunday), take care, be safe, and smile in the lineup!
