SoCal Forecast
Updated most Sundays, Tuesdays, and Thursdays
Sunday Sep 15, 2024 7:40 AM
By Nathan Cool
Surf Charts for SoCal
Rincon | Ventura, C-St. | County Line | Malibu | Hermosa | Huntington BeachTrestles | Old Mans | Oceanside | Beacons | Sunset Cliffs
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At a glance:
Today (Sunday the 15th) there is now a chance of seeing decent-sized NW ground swell on the long range. Right now we have a light to moderate mix of southern hemisphere ground swell and NW wind swell in SoCal. NW wind swell picks up Monday into Tuesday with lesser southern hemi. Smaller surf is on tap for the second half of the week. Minor wind swell is expected by the weekend into early next week. Minor southern hemi is due early next week. But then a decent sized NW ground swell is becoming possible for late next week. And minor southern hemi is being watched for 10/1. Condition-wise: onshore flow underway with some precip chances; winds will be strong at times; a tidal swing is underway; and water temps are holding steady for the most part — for now.
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Current Conditions:
Early this morning, periods were primarily running 14 seconds from 170° and 8 seconds from 310°.
Most breaks were running waist high with occasional chest high pluses at standout south facing breaks.
Buoys in the outer waters were running 4'. Nearshore buoys were running 1.6-2.1'.
Tide levels are swinging wide as we approach a Full Moon Tuesday the 17th, but the widest swings are outside of daylight hours. Today we have a -0.6' low around 2:30 AM, a 4.5' high around 9:00 AM, a 2' low around 2:00 PM, and a 6.3' high around 8:00 PM.
Water temps were running 69-72° around much of SD yesterday. OC was varied with Huntington Beach 65°, Newport 67°, and San Clemente Pier 73°. LA was mostly 68-70° although the usually-cooler Cabrillo reported 62°. in VC, Channel Islands Harbor reported 66° this morning. SB Harbor reported 65° overnight. Although a temporary upwelling seems to be on the rebound this morning, strong winds Monday could cause a more notable upwelling with cooler water temps Tuesday and/or Wednesday.
Surf Forecast:
Today (Sunday the 15th) southern hemi swell is backing off as is localized NW wind swell. Although there are minor to moderate swells in the forecast, there are signs this morning of seeing a decent sized NW ground swell later next week. I'll get to that in a sec, but first things first.
Monday the 16th (late) into Tuesday the 17th should see the next round of NW wind swell as the next in this seemingly non-stop series of low pressure troughs dives south to SoCal (model by NOAA MAG):
That's what it should look like around 7:00 AM Monday with that low diving tapping on SoCal's front door (near Pt. Conception). The trough will extend much farther south into Baja. At first, this should bring a super heavy onshore flow tonight with drizzle in many areas before dawn Monday. But by early afternoon the center of that low will be just east of SoCal, generating strong NW winds on the backside of its counterclockwise spin. Winds should generally run 25 mph in the outer waters (and some parts of the coast), but with outer water gusts over 30 mph. This should produce wind swell that would initially build Monday the 16th in the waist to chest high range at west facing breaks, but be more along the lines of chest high Tuesday the 17th. Wind swell should be angled from ≥300° with periods 8-10 seconds.
Tuesday the 17th, along with NW wind swell, we should see a light injection of southern hemi ground swell from this deep low latitude system that was near New Zealand about ten days ago (model by FNMOC):
Moving directly east from 5,800 nautical miles from SoCal, we'll get just enough energy to put south facing breaks into waist high sets, angled from 215° with periods 16 seconds. West facing breaks should do better at chest high from the wind swell.
Wednesday the 18th should see size drop everywhere to waist max, smaller Thursday the 19th.
Friday the 20th through Tuesday the 24th were slated for more NW wind swell but that doesn't appear to be the case today. Although we'll see a couple troughs of low pressure this week, that northerly flow should weaken by the end of the week with fairer weather this coming weekend, and subsequently less wind swell. At this point, Friday the 20th through Tuesday the 24th look like knee to waist max days at most breaks, but there is an exception starting Tuesday the 24th for south facing spots.
Tuesday the 24th (building day) into Wednesday the 25th should see the barest of increases at south facing breaks from activity that was south of the Tasman Sea a few days ago. It's barely budging the needle on nearshore data models this morning, topping out at knee to at times waist high at south facing breaks by Wednesday the 25th. This will likely linger in the knee+ range for a few days.
Friday the 27th has a good chance of seeing NW ground swell from this decent sized system south of the Aleutian Chain (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
Although the nearshore GFSWAVE data — which is used to generate the automated charts here on WaveCast and other forecasting sites — fails to show energy from that system this morning, the GFS model does, jiving with that NFCENS model above. That would easily house 30' seas from about 2,700 nautical miles from SoCal, which, on that suggested course, would send chest+ sets to SoCal's west facing breaks. Top-end tolerance on the calculations comes in at head high, but I'd lean toward chest+ for now. Swell would be angled from 305° with periods 16 seconds. This is out on the 7-day models so I'll need a few more days to see how this plays out.
Tuesday the 1st is the next swell on my charts today from this very low latitude storm that would smack the southern tip of Tasmania and, as it passes to the east south of the Tasman Sea, it could send us a glancing blow of energy (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
I popped a bigger picture on that model to show the immense distance swell would have to travel to reach SoCal: over 6,800 nautical miles. But with seas nearing 40', the surf scraps sent to SoCal would run about knee to waist high, angled from 215° with periods 18 seconds.
The more salient story for SoCal surf today is the potential swell for 10/27, and maybe the next notable NW'er coming in around the 3rd or 4th of October from this Gulf system (model by NOAA MAG):
That's a 16-day model, making it too early to call. A variable to consider with this — and for our upcoming NW swell season overall — is how much La Niña will have an impact on NorthPac swell development. We are entering a La Niña season now but models are keeping it weak, with the highest chance being just a -0.5°C signal, which is well below any significant La Niña measure (see graph here). In fact, most models support not just a week La Niña, but a short-lived one, reverting quickly to a neutral-Niño early next year (see graph here). If you have my book Surf, Flood, Fire & Mud, you know those neutral-Niños can be bigger surf- and weather-producers than full-blown El Niños. So hope springs eternal for SoCal's winter surf, although my now third cup of coffee this morning could be influencing my euphoric-leaning optimism. Either way, I'll continue to keep an eye on the Pacific and as long as I have your support then I'll be able to keep this report going to keep you posted.
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Here's how the day-to-day is breaking down so far:
Monday the 16th looks about waist high at most breaks.
Tuesday the 17th looks about waist to chest high at west facing breaks and waist high at south facing spots.
Wednesday the 18th looks about waist to at times chest high at west facing breaks and waist high at south facing spots.
Thursday the 19th looks about waist max at most breaks.
Friday the 20th looks about knee to waist everywhere.
Saturday the 21st looks about knee to waist everywhere.
Sunday the 22nd looks about knee to waist everywhere.
Monday the 23rd looks about knee to waist everywhere.
Tuesday the 24th, so far, looks about looks about knee to waist everywhere.
Wednesday the 25th, so far, looks about waist max at south facing breaks and knee high at west facing breaks.
Thursday the 26th, so far, looks similar.
Friday the 27th, so far, holds a good chance of seeing chest+ sets at west facing breaks from ground swell. I'll have more on that in my next report.
Weather Outlook:
Today (Sunday the 15th) a robust trough of low pressure is pushing south to SoCal, increasing the onshore flow. Burn-off will be tough today with many beaches cloudy into the afternoon, and max beach temps in the mid 60s.
Monday the 16th should see thick AM marine layer with enough drizzle to warrant the possibility of something measurable, but likely not more than in the hundredths of an inch at the beaches. Max beach temps should hover in the low to mid 60s. Strong NW winds will likely scour-out the marine layer by the afternoon, with winds being strong during the afternoon (see Wind section below).
Tuesday the 17th should see the onshore flow weaken with a late morning burn-off likely and max beach temps in the low to mid 60s.
Wednesday the 18th should see the next trough of low pressure make its way south, increasing the onshore flow. Morning marine layer is likely and there is a slight chance of light rain north of LA, but once again in the hundredths of an inch at most. Burn-off may be tough with beach max temps in the upper 50s north of LA and low 60s farther south.
Thursday the 19th could see light precip once again in the morning, but more than likely drizzle-plus, and focused mainly from LA north. Max beach temps should run in the low to mid 60s. Strong winds may scour-out marine layer by early afternoon.
Friday the 20th will likely be a turnaround day as troughing moves east and weak to moderate high pressure builds near SoCal. I'll have more on that in my next report.
Wind Outlook:
Winds
at 7:00 AM (Sunday the 15th) were light and variable most everywhere with an onshore element. Afternoon onshores should run 8-12 mph.
Monday the 16th should see onshores pick up early and reach 15-20 mph by noon from LA north, and 10-15 mph farther south. By early to midafternoon onshore winds should reach 20-25 mph from LA north with stronger gusts near 30-35 mph possible. South of LA the afternoon onshores should max out around 15-20 mph but with gusts possibly reaching 25 mph at times by late afternoon.
Tuesday the 17th should see AM light and variables with afternoon onshores to 15 mph.
Wednesday the 18th should see AM light and variables with afternoon onshores to 15 mph, but up to 20 mph by late afternoon from LA north.
Thursday the 19th should see AM light and variables with afternoon onshores 9-14 mph.
Until my next report (Tuesday), take care, be safe, and smile in the lineup!
