SoCal Forecast
Updated most Sundays, Tuesdays, and Thursdays
Sunday Oct. 2, 2022 5:30 AM
By Nathan Cool
Surf Charts for SoCal
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At a glance:
Today (Sunday) we have a mild mix of southern hemisphere ground swell and diminishing NW wind swell in SCal. Moderate southern hemi swell is due Tuesday the 4th into Wednesday the 5th. Light NW is due around the same time. Moderate SE ground swell is due this coming weekend, and moderate NW ground swell may come ashore then as well. SW ground swell is due the 10th-11th. And NW ground swell is being watched for the 14th-15th. Condition-wise: fair weather and winds this week with some offshore mornings; high tide is running deep; and water temps are fair.
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Current Conditions:
Early this morning, periods were primarily running 15 seconds from 190-200° and 9 seconds from 320°.
Most all breaks were running knee to waist high.
Buoys in the outer waters off SoCal were running 4'. Nearshore buoys were running 1.5-2.0'.
Tide levels are moderate for the most part, but a deep high this afternoon will continue to run deep for a while, later each day. Today we have a 3.3' low around 7:00 AM, a 5.2' high around 2:30 PM, and a 0.3' low around 11:00 PM.
Water temps were running 68-72° around much of SD yesterday, although Mission Beach has been cooler between 64-66°. OC was running 66-70°. LA was running 67-71° in many spots. In VC, Channel Islands Harbor reported 68° overnight. SB was running 65° nearshore and 63° in the channel.
Surf Forecast:
Today and Monday are small surf days in SoCal with minimal swell in the water.
Tuesday the 4th (building day) into Wednesday the 5th (peak day) should see light to moderate SW ground swell from this system that broke off Antarctica south of French Polynesia last week (model by FNMOC):
This should bring chest max waves to south facing breaks by Wednesday the 5th, building Tuesday the 4th, with swell angled from 195° and periods 14-16 seconds.
Tuesday the 4th and Wednesday the 5th should also see a light mix of NW wind swell from winds forming off NorCal, and NW ground swell from what was Typhoon Kulap, which took a course from the Western Pacific to the Bering Sea (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
We'll get the barest of glancing blows from Kulap from that northerly trek, but it should bring waist high waves to west facing breaks by Wednesday the 5th. The localized NW wind swell will precede that, so all told, Tuesday the 4th and Wednesday the 5th look about waist high at west facing breaks with swell angled from 300-305° and periods 8 and 16 seconds.
Thursday the 6th, as the F-Poly swell starts to fade and minor swell from Kulap remains, we should see some SE ground swell in the mix from this storm that took a southward dive near Chile (model by FNMOC):
Trekking away from SoCal will leave us with meager energy from an extremely high degree of angular spreading decay. At best, spotty, intermittent, waist high-ish waves from 165° should make it ashore Thursday the 6th. So all told, we're looking at waist to chest high waves at south facing breaks (from the F-Poly and Chilean swells), and waist high at west facing breaks from Kulap. Friday the 7th looks smaller everywhere.
Saturday the 8th into Sunday the 9th should see SE swell from this storm that peaked yesterday near Easter Island (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
Chest max sets are expected at south facing breaks that can work a SE angle of around 170°. Periods should run 16 seconds.
Saturday the 8th and Sunday the 9th, along with that Easter Island swell, we might see NW ground swell come ashore from this storm that's been on the models the past few days diving southeast from the Aleutians (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
This is still out on the 72-hour models, but most models agree this would top out with 25' seas south of the Aleutians, sending SoCal's west facing breaks waist to chest high sets, angled from 300-305° with periods 14 seconds.
Monday the 10th into Tuesday the 11th should see the next SW ground swell from this low-riding storm that peaked yesterday southeast of New Zealand (model by FNMOC):
This should bring waist to chest high sets to south facing breaks, angled from 200-205° with periods 16 seconds. This swell would peak Tuesday the 11th, linger to a lesser degree Wednesday the 12th, and then back off Thursday the 13th.
Friday the 14th into Saturday the 15th could see decent sized NW ground swell in SoCal; that is, if one trusts the extended long range, 240-hour models, like this one (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
With 30-35' seas from that position south of the Aleutians, west facing breaks would be looking at chest to head high sets. But that Aleutian storm would run into blocking high pressure in the Gulf of Alaska, stopping it from progressing farther east (model by NOAA MAG):
Interestingly enough, at the same time, a smaller low (smaller red circle) could make for an inside-slider offshore wind event for the second half of next week. All of this is riddled with question marks as trying to find model consensus this morning is like herding cats. I'll keep an eye on it though, and with your support I'll keep you posted.
BTW: I updated the donation progress report yesterday with September's numbers. Donation goals are in the black, which is great news, but there are still a few more months to go, so if you haven't chipped in yet then now would be a great time to support this report. Thank you to everyone who is keeping this report alive! I literally couldn't do this without you.
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Here's how the day-to-day is breaking down so far:
Monday the 3rd looks about knee to waist high at most breaks.
Tuesday the 4th is expected to run waist to chest at south facing breaks as ground swell builds, and waist high at west facing spots.
Wednesday the 5th is expected to run chest max at south facing breaks and waist high at west facing spots.
Thursday the 6th looks about waist to chest high at south facing breaks and waist high at west facing spots.
Friday the 7th looks about waist high at most breaks, with occasional pluses at south facing spots.
Saturday the 8th should run chest high at breaks with SE exposure, and waist to chest at other south facing spots. West facing breaks look about waist high.
Sunday the 9th looks about chest high at breaks with SE exposure, and waist to chest at other south facing spots. West facing breaks so far are expected to run waist to chest high from ground swell.
Monday the 10th, so far, looks about waist to chest at most south facing breaks and waist high at west facing spots.
Tuesday the 11th, so far, looks about chest high at most south facing breaks and waist high at west facing spots.
Wednesday the 12th, so far, looks about waist high everywhere.
Thursday the 13th, so far, looks about knee to waist everywhere.
Friday the 14th into Saturday the 15th has potential for NW ground swell. More on that in my next report.
Weather Outlook:
Onshore flow is well underway today; in fact, this is the most onshore day in the forecast. Marine layer may be tough to burn off in some spots, but most beaches should reach 70° or low 70s today.
High pressure builds over the American West Monday the 3rd through Saturday the 8th to allow a warm-up, but AM marine layer is likely each day. Burn-offs should be timely, mid morning or so. Beach max temps should hover in the mid 70s most days, perhaps upper 70s late in the week, mostly south of LA. Some models, btw, show light tropical precip making it into SD south county Saturday the 8th. This would be minimal, and is a very low chance event right now.
Sunday the 9th through Tuesday the 11th could see a trough of low pressure take a swipe at SoCal, increasing the onshore flow and marine layer while lowering max beach temps back to the 70° max range by Tuesday the 11th. Longer range models show potential for an inside-slider offshore event Wednesday the 12th, but that's too early to call.
Wind Outlook:
Winds
at 6:00 AM were light and variable most everywhere. Afternoon onshores should reach 15 mph in most spots. Monday looks similar. Tuesday should see light AM offshores to 5 mph, shifting onshore by late morning, and then afternoon onshores reaching 10-15 mph. Wednesday is looking at AM offshores 5-10 mph and afternoon onshores to 10 mph. Thursday is looking at AM offshores 5-10 mph and afternoon onshores 10-15 mph.
Until my next report (Tuesday), take care, be safe, and smile in the lineup!
