SoCal Forecast
Updated most Sundays, Tuesdays, and Thursdays
Sunday Feb 16, 2025 6:10 AM
By Nathan Cool
Surf Charts for SoCal
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At a glance:
Today (Sunday the 16th) we have a decent amount of NW ground swell in SoCal but this one's on the way out. Another NW ground swell builds late Monday the 17th into Tuesday the 18th. A NW combo swell is due Thursday the 20th. Moderate NW ground swell is due this coming weekend. More NW ground swell is being watched for next week. Condition-wise: dry weather for a while; a Santa Ana is being monitored for later this week; tide levels are moderate; and water temps are cooler in some spots.
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Current Conditions:
Early this morning, periods were primarily running 14 seconds from 290°.
Most west facing breaks were running upwards of head high with occasional pluses at standouts. Direct south facing spots were mostly chest high.
Buoys in the outer waters were running 8'. Nearshore buoys were running 2.5' (south facing) to 3.7' (west facing).
Tide levels are moderate. Today we have a 1.3' low around 5:30 AM, a 4' high around 11:00 AM, a 1' low around 5:00 PM, and a 4.5' high before midnight.
Water temps were averaging 56-58° in most of SD and OC. LA was running 55-57°. In VC, Channel Islands Harbor reported 56° overnight. SB Harbor reported 55° this morning.
Water Contact Advisory: The recent rain has increased the risk of contamination from rain runoff along all of the SoCal coast. As a reminder, there is a risk of high bacteria levels for at least 72 hours following any measurable rain event (usually 0.1" or more) during which time water contact should be avoided.
LA Water Update: Please note that the LA County Department of Public Health has lifted ocean water closures from the Palisades Fire but advisories are in effect.
Surf Forecast:
Today (Sunday the 16th) we're seeing a combination of fading NW ground swell from the nearshore system that kicked up sizable surf the past couple days along with NW ground swell from a more distant Western Pacific storm. These swells will fade later today into early morning Monday the 17th — but not for long.
Late in the day Monday the 17th into Tuesday the 18th (peak) should see NW ground swell from this Gulf system (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
This should produce head high+ sets at west facing breaks Tuesday the 18th, angled from 295° and periods 15 seconds. This swell should drop to chest to at times head high Wednesday the 19th.
Thursday the 20th is looking at a combo of NW wind swell and ground swell. The wind swell should be from this inland low that will butt-up against stronger high pressure off NorCal (model by UQAM):
Those surface winds will be strong enough to whip up wind swell fetch that'd bring chest to head high wind swell waves to west facing breaks, with an ETA late morning Thursday the 20th, angled from the wind swell-usual ≥300° and periods 8-10 seconds. Earlier in the day should see the arrival of spotty, intermittent NW ground swell from this very distant system in the Western Pacific (model from NOAA OPC):
That's a good 3,600 nautical miles from SoCal, but peaking with 35' seas means west facing breaks should see chest+ waves at west facing breaks Thursday the 20th, angled from 305° and periods 17 seconds. But that distance means inconsistent swell with long lulls between sets and few waves per set. So while Thursday the 20th starts out with chest high-ish intermittent NW ground swell, size should increase later in the morning through the rest of the day from localized NW wind swell. Size should run chest+ at west facing breaks Friday the 21st.
Saturday the 22nd should see moderate NW ground swell from this system entering the Gulf of Alaska in a couple days (model from NOAA OPC):
That's not an overly impressive fetch with about 25' seas, but it should be enough to bring chest+ sets to west facing breaks Saturday the 22nd, angled from 295° and periods 15 seconds. I'll need a couple more days to confirm.
Sunday the 23rd, as moderate NW ground swell continues, we should see minor SW ground swell fill in that should peak Monday the 24th from this low latitude storm that broke off Antarctica (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
On its own that'd produce waist to at times chest high waves at south facing breaks, angled from 200° with periods 16 seconds. NW wrap might be around that size as well depending on how the NW ground swell for the 22nd works out over the next couple days.
Tuesday the 25th and Wednesday the 26th could see back-to-back NW ground swells from these two systems on the 5-day models (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
So far, this holds potential for initially chest high-ish NW ground swell at west facing breaks Tuesday the 25th, and then chest to head high Wednesday the 26th. Swell would initially be angled from 300° on the 25th and 290° on the 26th. Periods would run 16 seconds. I'll need a few more days to firm this up.
Approximately somewhere between — or during — Thursday the 27th and Saturday the 1st, we could see at least one sizable NW ground swell. Models are split on this, but here's the upper-end scenario (model from NOAA OPC):
That's the absolute best-case scenario, so take those 48' seas with a grain of salt. Some models show almost nothing forming around that time, and other models fall somewhere in between. It's too early to start working the numbers but it earned a red pin in my charts for now and I'll see how this develops throughout the week.
Looking further out on the long range horizon, in case you missed it from my last report, there's good news on the wave and weather front as NOAA's official El Niño report was issued late last week, calling for an end to La Niña by the spring (image from NOAA CPC):
Although La Niña is dominant for our current 3-month period (JFM for January, February, March), by this spring (MAM for March, April, May) La Niña should be history as a neutral-Niño takes shape. As you may know, this is something I talk about in Surf, Flood, Fire & Mud, where historically these neutral-Niños can be more impactful than a full blown El Niño. So looking ahead to this summer, it's somewhat likely that we'll see an uptick in hurricane swell activity in the Northeast Pacific. And since we wouldn't be in full-blown-Niño, the southern hemisphere should be quite active this summer. And then by the winter, we'd be looking at a fruitful season for NW ground swells and a good amount of much-needed rain. It's still early in the game but models have been fairly consistent with putting the kibosh on La Niña, shifting to this more favorable pattern for wave and rain in SoCal — and historically a weaker Santa Ana season.
So there's a lot to watch over the coming days, weeks, and months. But I'll continue to keep an eye on the entire Pacific and as long as I have your support then I can keep this report going to keep you posted.
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Here's how the day-to-day is breaking down so far:
Monday the 17th should start out at chest high at west facing breaks but with swell building during the day.
Tuesday the 18th should run head high+ at west facing breaks.
Wednesday the 19th looks about chest to at times head high at west facing breaks.
Thursday the 20th should start out at chest max at west facing breaks but with wind swell building quickly in the morning, reaching head high by late morning.
Friday the 21st should run chest to head high at west facing breaks.
Saturday the 22nd looks about chest+ at west facing breaks.
Sunday the 23rd, so far, looks about chest high at west facing breaks and waist high at south facing spots.
Monday the 24th, so far, looks about waist high everywhere.
Tuesday the 25th, so far holds potential for chest high ground swell at west facing breaks.
Wednesday the 26th, so far, could see chest to head high sets at west facing spots.
Thursday the 27th holds potential for bigger NW ground swell but this is the point where models diverge. I'll know more on this in the coming days.
Weather Outlook:
Today (Sunday the 16th) weak high pressure is over SoCal, which should result in mostly sunny skies today with beach max temps in the low 60s.
Monday the 17th into Tuesday the 18th sees a weak trough of low pressure push south, which could introduce AM marine layer for some spots Monday, and at least partly-cloudy skies Tuesday. Beach max temps should run in the low 60s both days.
Wednesday the 19th looks like a fair weather day at the beaches with mostly-sunny skies and max beach temps in the low 60s.
Thursday the 20th and Friday the 21st should see an offshore flow from an inside-slider low diving south through the state's interior. But models are split on what to expect as this could produce northerly winds for wind swell, or offshore, NE winds. Here's the wind swell scenario, shown here again to save you from scrolling (model by UQAM):
On the other hand, the Santa Ana-favoring models call for a 4mb event (on a scale of 1-10), so even if this turns into a Santa Ana, winds should remain moderate. Either way, sunny skies will prevail and beach max temps should tick up a tad toward the mid 60s Thursday the 20th and Friday the 21st.
Saturday the 22nd through at least the first part of the following week (Sunday the 23rd onward), a large area of high pressure should build over the American West for clear skies and max beach temps in the mid 60s — by the looks of things right now.
Monday the 3rd is the next chance of precip, which is impossible to call 15 days out but within the realm of possibility as it would be from this traditional trough of low pressure that'd sag south to SoCal (model by NOAA MAG):
That'd be one heck of a rainmaker, but being that far out on the long range it's in the dreamland category for now. I popped a yellow pin in my charts and I'll see how it goes.
Wind Outlook:
Winds
at 6:00 AM (Sunday the 16th) were light and variable with a slight offshore element. Afternoon onshores should run 8-12 mph.
Monday the 17th should see AM light and variables with afternoon onshores to 10-15 mph.
Tuesday the 18th should see AM light and variables and afternoon onshores 8-12 mph.
Wednesday the 19th should see AM light and variables and afternoon onshores 15 mph.
Until my next report (Tuesday), take care, be safe, and smile in the lineup!