SoCal Forecast
Updated most Sundays, Tuesdays, and Thursdays
Tuesday 1/13/26 6:30 AM
By Nathan Cool
Surf Charts for SoCal
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At a glance:
Today (Tuesday the 13th) we have a good amount of NW ground swell in SoCal. Another NW ground swell is due Thursday the 15th. Moderate NW ground swell is due Sunday the 18th into Monday the 19th. Light to moderate NW ground swell is becoming likely for the 21st-22nd. Moderately sized NW ground swells are being watched for the 24th and 26th. And the Pacific pattern is becoming conducive for more activity shortly after. Condition-wise: dry weather and clear skies for a few more days before a shift later next week; winds trend offshore for a bit; tide levels are swinging wider; and water temps are fair for this time of year.
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Current Conditions:
Early this morning, periods were primarily running 15-17 seconds from around 295-300°.
Most west facing breaks were running head high to 2' overhead. South facing spots were mostly chest high, bigger at SW exposed spots.
Buoys in the outer waters were running 10'. Nearshore buoys were running 1.3' (south facing) to 3' (west facing).
Tide levels are swinging wider as we approach a New Moon Sunday the 18th, which will put early morning highs in the 6' range this weekend. Today we have a 5' high around 5:30 AM, a 0.2' low around 1:00 PM, and a 3' high around 8:00 PM.
Water temps were running 59-61° in most of SD, OC and LA. In VC, Channel Islands Harbor reported 59° this morning. SB Harbor reported 62° last night.
Surf Forecast:
Today (Tuesday the 13th) we've reached the peak of the NW ground swell generated by this system that crested a few days ago south of the Aleutians (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
This swell peaked overnight and should drop to about chest+ Wednesday the 14th before the next NW ground swell comes ashore.
Thursday the 15th should see NW ground swell from a similar system that had the same distance but lower latitude (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
That should produce sets running head high+ at west facing breaks Thursday the 15th with swell angled from 290° and periods 16 seconds. However, there will be a deep early morning high tide that could shut down many spots for a while in the early morning hours. In any case, this swell should run about head high at west facing breaks Friday the 16th, dropping to chest high Saturday the 17th.
Sunday the 18th (building quickly) into Monday the 19th should see moderate WNW ground swell from this system (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
Taking a southeasterly track toward Hawaii before turning northeastward leaves us with less swell than the preceding systems. Running the numbers on the 3-day models, this works out to chest to head high max sets at west facing breaks, angled from 285° and periods 15 seconds. Peak swell should be by the afternoon Sunday the 18th, with chest max waves in the early morning Sunday. Monday the 19th should see chest to head high waves in the morning with swell fading later in the day. This swell should dip to about chest max Tuesday the 20th.
Wednesday the 21st will likely see light to moderate NW ground swell from this activity on the 3-day outlook (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
With seas barely more than 20', SoCal's west facing breaks would be looking at chest high sets, angled from 295° and periods 14 seconds. So far it looks safe to call Wednesday the 21st and Thursday the 22nd at chest high for west facing breaks, with swell dropping to waist high Friday the 23rd.
Saturday the 24th could see long-period yet inconsistent NW ground swell from this WestPac system on the 5-day models (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
Staying a good 3,600 nautical miles from SoCal means fewer than normal waves per set and longer than normal lulls between sets. So far this looks like a chest+ swell for west facing breaks Saturday the 24th, angled from 290° with periods at least 17 seconds. This swell would linger to a somewhat lesser degree Sunday the 25th.
Monday the 26th could see moderate NW ground swell from this system located northwest of Hawaii on the 8-day projection (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
So far, that looks like a chest high swell for west facing breaks, angled from 290° and periods 14 seconds.
The longer range outlook has a couple question marks for the end of January into February, but there is a high probability that the Pacific pattern will change to one for waves, and possibly more rain. The first thing to note is that most models like the idea of the jetstream/storm-track (green) lowering in latitude to line up with SoCal by the end of January, stopped only at the last minute by weak high pressure over the 4-Corners region (model by NOAA MAG):
That sets up an ideal, uninterrupted course for WestPac-originating storms to build as they travel across the North Pacific toward the west coast of the U.S. Not only does that increase the chance for wave-worthy systems to send swell to SoCal, it also jives with our transition to a neutral-Niño as La Niña is going away (image from NOAA CPC):
This is something I talk about in Surf, Flood, Fire & Mud, where these neutral-Niño seasons can be more active than headline-grabbing El Niños. Those 3-month spans (DJF = December January February, JFM = January, February, March, etc.) show we're currently in a notable transition toward neutral-Niño, which coincides with the drop in the jetstream as anything Niño-leaning weakens high pressure in the Gulf of Alaska, thus removing a blockade that would force storms to the north — something common during a La Niña.
So looking at the state of the Pacific now, the chance for waves and rain is high by February. Looking toward the end of summer and fall, there's a high chance of a full-blown El Niño, which could make for a busier than normal hurricane season late this summer, followed by an active NorthPac winter of 2026-27. This does need a lot more monitoring, but as long as I have your support then I can continue watching the Pacific to keep this report going and keep you posted.
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Here's a brief look at how the next few days are breaking down so far:
Wednesday the 14th looks about chest+ at west facing breaks.
Thursday the 15th is expected to run head high+ at west facing breaks.
Friday the 16th is expected to run head high at west facing breaks.
Saturday the 17th looks about chest high at west facing breaks.
Sunday the 18th is expected to run chest to head high max at west facing breaks by mid to late morning.
Monday the 19th is expected to run chest to head high at west facing breaks.
Tuesday the 20th looks about waist to chest at west facing breaks.
Wednesday the 21st, so far, looks about chest high at west facing breaks.
Thursday the 22nd, so far, looks about chest high at west facing breaks.
Friday the 23rd, so far, looks about waist high at west facing breaks.
Saturday the 24th, so far, looks about chest+ at west facing breaks.
Sunday the 25th, so far, looks about chest+ at west facing breaks.
Monday the 26th, so far, looks about chest high at west facing breaks.
Weather Outlook:
Today (Tuesday the 13th) high pressure will remain over the American West to varying degrees through Monday the 18th. The offshore gradient is relaxing, so no major Santa Anas are expected. This will make for clear skies and warm beach temps for this time of year now through the weekend. But early next week, likely starting Tuesday the 20 but more so Wednesday the 21st, the persistent high will weaken over the American West as a trough of low pressure pushes south to take its place. This is where models go their separate ways with the overly bullish ensembles showing rain chances by the 21st or 22nd, but the deterministic long range models say otherwise. Some scenarios include a small tropical storm drifting north to guide moisture toward a low pressure trough dropping south from the Gulf. The tropical storm idea is a rather bizarre event for this time of year, showing how whacky the models are past the 7-day mark right now. Before then, SoCal beach weather is much easier to call. Taking all of this into account, here's how I'm calling SoCal beach weather for the next week:
Today (Tuesday the 13th) should see clear skies with max beach temps in the low to mid 70s.
Wednesday the 14th should see clear skies with max beach temps in the low to mid 70s.
Thursday the 15th should see clear skies with max beach temps in the mid 70s.
Friday the 16th should see clear skies with max beach temps in the low 70s.
Saturday the 17th should see clear skies with max beach temps in the low 70s.
Sunday the 18th should see clear skies with max beach temps in the low 70s. There is a slight chance for morning marine layer, but any that does form should dissipate quickly.
Monday the 19th should see mostly clear skies with max beach temps in the low 70s. There is a slight chance for morning marine layer, but any that does form should dissipate quickly.
Tuesday the 20th may see morning marine layer with a timely burn-off and max beach temps in the upper 60s.
Wednesday the 21st has the slightest chance of precip. This is the point where models diverge but I should be able to narrow in on this in my next report.
Wind Outlook:
Winds
at 7:00 AM were calm along most of the SoCal coast, although the most wind-prone spots of VC were running 15 mph from the northeast with gusts over 20 mph. Offshore winds shouldn't get any stronger than that this morning, and then shift lightly onshore this afternoon 5-10 mph.
Wednesday the 14th should see AM offshores 5-10 mph and afternoon onshores 5-10 mph.
Thursday the 15th should see AM offshores 5-10 mph and afternoon onshores 5-10 mph.
Friday the 16th should see AM offshores 5-10 mph and afternoon onshores 5-10 mph.
Saturday the 17th should see AM offshores 5-10 mph and afternoon onshores 5-10 mph.
Sunday the 18th should see AM offshores 5-10 mph and afternoon onshores 5-10 mph.
Until my next report (Thursday), take care, be safe, and smile in the lineup!
