SoCal Forecast
Updated most Sundays, Tuesdays, and Thursdays
Tuesday Dec 3, 2024 5:25 AM
By Nathan Cool
Surf Charts for SoCal
Rincon | Ventura, C-St. | County Line | Malibu | Hermosa | Huntington BeachTrestles | Old Mans | Oceanside | Beacons | Sunset Cliffs
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At a glance:
Today (Tuesday the 3rd) we still have a good deal of NW ground swell in SoCal, which will fade over the next couple days. A series of NW swells builds Friday the 6th with size increasing each day to its peak early next week. More NW ground swell may follow. Condition-wise: fair weather turns temporarily offshore in a couple days; weather changes early next week; the tide is swinging wide; and water temps are mostly unchanged.
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Current Conditions:
Early this morning, periods were primarily running 15 seconds from 295°.
Most west facing breaks were running chest to head high. South facing spots were mostly waist to chest from the wrap.
Buoys in the outer waters were running 6-7'. Nearshore buoys were running 1.8' (south facing) to 3' (west facing).
Tide levels are still swinging wide from the recent New Moon. Today we have a 6' high around 9:30 AM and a -0.5' low around 5:00 PM.
Water temps were running 57-59° around most of SD, OC, and LA yesterday. VC and SB were hovering around 57°.
Surf Forecast:
Today (Tuesday the 3rd) we're in the last throes of the NW swell kicked up by this this system that formed in the Western Pacific and peaked almost a week ago near the Aleutian-Hawaiian longitudes (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
This should back off to chest max Wednesday the 4th and fade further Thursday the 5th.
Thursday the 5th, as the NW fades, we should get a small injection of southern hemi from this deep low latitude storm that was near New Zealand (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
That should produce waist+ sets at south facing breaks Thursday the 5th. Lingering NW energy should produce similar size at west facing breaks Thursday the 5th.
Friday the 6th should begin a daily, progressive building trend in NW ground swell from a series of non-stop storm activity in the North Pacific that'll enter our swell window. The first swell for Friday the 6th will be from this system south of the Aleutians (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
That should produce initially chest max sets at west facing breaks Friday the 6th with swell angled from 295° and periods 13-14 seconds. Saturday the 7th should see the peak of that swell with chest high waves at west facing breaks. And then Sunday the 8th should see swell from a similar system on the 24-hour models, once again producing chest high waves at west facing breaks but with the swell angle slightly improved to 290° (periods remain at 13-14 seconds).
Monday the 9th into Tuesday the 10th should see a third such system that on its own would keep chest high sets going at west facing breaks, but a slightly bigger injection of NW energy is becoming likely from this high-latitude storm on the 4-day models (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
According to the 4-day models this morning, this would result in sets running chest to head high at west facing breaks Monday the 9th and Tuesday the 10th, but with swell angled steep from 305-310°. Periods would run 16 seconds. But that's not all.
Along with the dual NW ground swells Monday the 9th, we may also see wind swell from this potent low that'd slide down the west coast with its trough circled in red (model by UQAM):
That's a precip model showing smatterings of light rain around parts of SoCal early next week from this system as it takes a partial over-water course to pick up moisture. But the main component for weather, wind, and waves is the tight pressure gradient we can see circling down the west coast between those tight red lines. The closer the red lines, the tighter the gradient, and subsequently the stronger the winds. Just yesterday most models showed this being a completely over-land course for a dry, strong Santa Ana (of the inside-slider variety). Only one model yesterday showed rain potential from an over-water course. But today most models are aligned on the above scenario, which is a middle-ground from where things stood 24 hours ago. Without having model consistency for at least a couple days, confidence isn't high enough yet to call the results of this system; however, with models in agreement today, the scenario of a semi-wet northwest wind/wind-swell event early next week seems quite likely. I'll see how this goes over the next couple days and narrow in further in my next report.
Wednesday the 11th may see another round of NW ground swell if, that is, the NFCENS model has it right, which may be an outlier this morning (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
The GFS-WAVE model (which is used to initialize the automated charts here on WaveCast and other forecasting sites) doesn't show this system at all, but the NFCENS is bullish enough to create chest+ sets at west facing breaks in SoCal Wednesday the 11th. Swell would be angled from 300° with periods 16 seconds. I'm sure models will converge either way over the next few days.
After that, we'll at least see numerous, smaller scaled NW swells as the North Pacific long range models are lighting up like a Christmas tree with moderat storms dotting the entire span of the upper latitudes. It's at this point that we're venturing into long-range-land, so I'll hold off on working the numbers on each of these potential systems until models can at least come to agreement on what to expect prior — i.e. the Wednesday the 11th swell.
Also a quick update on the southern hemis for the 10th and 14th: We will still see light southern hemi on the 10th but at just waist high at south facing breaks it'll be overshadowed by NW wrap, so I'll drop the southern hemi for the 10th from the forecast. The southerly swell for the 14th is taking a lower latitude dive just outside of our swell window, sending hardly anything to SoCal. I'm dropping that from the forecast as well.
Instead, all eyes remain focused on seasonal activity north of the equator. But I'll continue to keep an eye on the entire Pacific and as long as I have your much-needed support then I'll be able to keep this report going to keep you posted.
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Here's how the day-to-day is breaking down so far:
Wednesday the 4th looks about chest high at west facing breaks.
Thursday the 5th looks about waist+ at most breaks (south- and west-facing).
Friday the 6th should run chest max at west facing breaks and waist high at south facing spots.
Saturday the 7th should run chest high at west facing breaks.
Sunday the 8th should run chest+ at west facing spots.
Monday the 9th looks about chest to head high at west facing breaks.
Tuesday the 10th, so far, looks about chest to head high at west facing breaks.
Wednesday the 11th, so far, looks about chest high at west facing breaks.
Thursday the 12th, so far, looks about waist to chest at west facing breaks.
Weather Outlook:
Today (Tuesday the 3rd) through Thursday the 5th should see the offshore flow weaken temporarily as a cut-off low off the coast wobbles into SoCal. Look for morning marine layer with a timely burn-off and max beach temps in the low 60s.
Friday the 6th and Saturday the 7th should see the offshore flow increase as that cut-off low spins near the AZ/MX border, creating light NE winds from its counterclockwise rotation. Look for little to no morning marine layer with max beach temps in the upper 60s.
Sunday the 8th sees the return of morning marine layer as the offshore flow weakens. Burn-off should be midmorning or so, with max beach temps in the low to mid 60s.
Monday the 9th is in question from that wind-swell-producing low diving south to SoCal, shown here again to save you from scrolling (model by UQAM):
Being split with a partial over-water course, this is less likely to produce a dry Santa Ana and more likely to produce NW winds with some light precip; however, rain amounts look trace at this point, and more then likely it'd be drizzle from a heavy marine layer. Cool air temps are likely and stronger than normal NW winds are likely as well. However, some models continue to show a Santa Ana with at least moderate strength. Models are starting to align today so I'm sure I can make a call in my next report (Thursday).
Wind Outlook:
Winds
at 5:00 AM (Tuesday the 3rd) were lightly offshore in most spots. Winds should shift onshore this afternoon 10-15 mph.
Wednesday the 4th should see AM light and variables and afternoon onshores to 10 mph.
Thursday the 5th should see AM light and variables and afternoon onshores to 10 mph.
Friday the 6th should see light AM offshores 5-10 mph and afternoon onshores 5-10 mph.
Until my next report (Thursday), take care, be safe, and smile in the lineup!
