SoCal Forecast
Updated most Sundays, Tuesdays, and Thursdays
Thursday 12/4/25 6:30 AM
By Nathan Cool
Surf Charts for SoCal
Rincon | Ventura, C-St. | County Line | Malibu | Hermosa | Huntington BeachTrestles | Old Mans | Oceanside | Beacons | Sunset Cliffs
Subscribe to be notified:
Get notified when this report is updated.
At a glance:
Today (Thursday the 4th) we have fading NW ground swell in SoCal that'll drop further Friday. Smaller surf is on tap this weekend into early next week. Moderate NW ground swell is being watched for Thursday the 11th. Another moderate NW swell is being watched for the 14th. Condition-wise: clear skies for a while with rain chances low on the long range; winds trend offshore, strongest today; a radical tidal swing is underway; and water temps remain fair for this time of year.
|
|
|
Current Conditions:
Early this morning, periods were primarily running 14 seconds from 290°.
Most west facing breaks were running chest to head high. Direct south facing breaks can expect waist to chest high wrap.
Buoys in the outer waters were running 7'. Nearshore buoys were running 1.8' (south facing) to 2.9' (west facing).
Tide levels are swinging exceptionally wide from a Full Moon that'll crest this afternoon. Today we have a 7.5' high around 8:00 AM, a -1.8' low around 3:00 PM, and a 4' high around 9:30 PM. With such a radical difference in water depth, conditions will change hour by hour, moving the line-up and wave speed.
Water temps continued to average 64° around most of SD, OC, and LA yesterday. In VC, Channel Islands Harbor reported 63° overnight. SB Harbor reported 61° overnight.
Hazardous Condition Warnings: NW swell will continue to increase the risk of rip currents and beach hazards today. The NWS has posted warnings and advisories for SB, VC, LA here and OC and SD here.
Surf Forecast:
Today (Thursday the 4th) NW swell has peaked from that storm last week that formed near the Aleutian-Hawaiian longitude. This swell is on the way out and should drop to chest max Friday the 5th.
Saturday the 6th through Wednesday the 10th look like much smaller days in the SoCal surf zone. Minor swaths of swell from both hemispheres should keep most breaks in waist high waves. Sunday the 7th though looks like the best day as a minor swath of Aleutian-originating NW swell comes ashore and minor southern hemi does too. All told, we're still looking at waist high waves Sunday the 7th at most breaks, but sets would be more consistent with less down time around in the line up.
Thursday the 11th is looking at a moderate increase in NW ground swell as the 4-day models favor this system in the Gulf of Alaska (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
Models downgraded that from 30' seas a couple days ago to 25' now. There are still a few more days to go to confirm, but so far this works out to chest high sets at west facing breaks by midmorning Thursday the 11th, angled from 305° and periods 14-15 seconds. This swell would continue Friday the 12th and drop off Saturday the 13th.
Sunday the 14th into Monday the 15th could see moderate NW ground swell from this system that the 9-day models say would dive south through the Gulf of Alaska (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
That's a long way out, but it'd work out to chest high waves at west facing breaks, angled from 310° and periods 14 seconds.
A couple swaths of southern hemi swell will likely come ashore from the 14th-16th from minor activity near New Zealand. That would produce waist high waves at south facing breaks, angled from 215° and periods 15 seconds.
And last but not least, I updated the donation progress report earlier this week. We're still quite a ways from meeting the 2025 goal, and with the year rapidly coming to a close, now's the time for the end-of-the-year push. If you value this report and haven't donated yet this year, please consider making a contribution today to ensure this report can continue. Remember, I'm not the one keeping this report alive — you are. Thank you for your support! I literally couldn't do this without you.
|
|
|
Here's a brief look at how the next few days are breaking down so far:
Friday the 5th looks about chest max at west facing breaks.
Saturday the 6th looks about waist at west facing breaks.
Sunday the 7th looks about waist high at most breaks.
Monday the 8th looks about waist high at west facing breaks.
Tuesday the 9th looks about waist high at west facing breaks.
Wednesday the 10th looks about waist high at west facing breaks.
Thursday the 11th, so far, is expected to run chest high at west facing breaks.
Friday the 12th, so far, looks about chest max at west facing breaks.
Saturday the 13th, so far, looks about waist high at west facing breaks.
Sunday the 14th, so far, looks about waist to chest high at west facing breaks and waist high at south facing spots.
Monday the 15th, so far, looks about chest high at west facing breaks and waist high at south facing spots.
Tuesday the 16th, so far, looks about waist high at west facing spots.
Weather Outlook:
Today (Thursday the 4th) a ridge of high pressure is moving into the American West from the Pacific, which will keep skies clear with an offshore influence through at least the first half of next week. Gradients were trending moderately offshore this morning, creating gusty offshore winds around the wind-prone sections of VC, mostly from Pt. Mugu south to Pt. Dume where NE winds were gusting to about 25 mph. Elsewhere along the coast offshore winds have been mild. Offshore winds should be at their peak midmorning, weakening throughout the day. Offshore winds then look mild through the forecast (see Wind section below). Max beach temps should reach the upper 60s today.
Friday the 5th should be clear with beach max temps in the mid 60s.
Saturday the 6th should be clear with beach max temps in the low to mid 60s.
Sunday the 7th should be clear with beach max temps in the low to mid 60s.
Monday the 8th should be clear with beach max temps in the mid to upper 60s.
Tuesday the 9th should be clear with beach max temps in the upper 60s.
Wednesday the 10th should be clear with beach max temps in the upper 60s.
Thursday the 11th, so far, is expected to see a trough of low pressure push south, weakening the high pressure over our area. Some morning marine layer is possible but skies should remain relatively clear with beach max temps in the mid 60s.
Friday the 12th could see that trough dig farther south, increasing the onshore flow. Morning marine layer is likely with a mid to late AM burn-off and max beach temps in the low 60s.
Saturday the 13th could be even more onshore with a thicker marine layer and beach max temps around 60°.
Sunday the 14th is where models diverge. Ensembles across the board favor precip somewhere between the 14th-16th, and the ECMWF deterministic model is leaning that way too. The GFS says no way, and builds high pressure over the region instead. I'll need a few more days to see how models work this out.
Wind Outlook:
Winds
at 7:00 AM were lightly offshore in many spots but stronger around the wind-prone regions of VC with NE winds about 15 mph around Pt. Mugu and Leo Carillo, gusting to 25 mph. Offshore winds should peak midmorning and weaken later in the morning. Onshores are expected by early to mid afternoon 5-10 mph everywhere.
Friday the 5th is expected to see AM offshores 4-8 mph and afternoon onshores 5-10 mph.
Saturday the 6th should see AM light and variables with an offshore element and afternoon onshores 4-8 mph.
Sunday the 7th should see AM light and variables with an offshore element and afternoon onshores 5-10 mph.
Monday the 8th should see AM offshores 4-8 mph and afternoon onshores 8-12 mph.
Until my next report (Sunday), take care, be safe, and smile in the lineup!
