SoCal Forecast
Updated most Sundays, Tuesdays, and Thursdays
Sunday Mar. 17, 2024 6:05 AM
By Nathan Cool
Surf Charts for SoCal
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At a glance:
Today (Sunday the 17th) we have decent sized NW ground swell in SoCal with background southern hemi. A spottier NW ground swell is due Tuesday the 19th into Wednesday the 20th. NW ground swell is due this coming weekend, with wind swell on its heels. A moderate NW ground swell is becoming likely for the 26th-27th. A better-sized NW ground swell is being watched for the 28th. And size could increase further by the end of next week. Condition-wise: fair but unsettled weather now; weather pattern shifts by the weekend with rain becoming likely; tide levels are moderate; and water temps were low in some spots.
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Current Conditions:
Early this morning, periods were primarily running 14 seconds from 300° and 14 seconds from 210°.
Most west facing breaks were running head high with overhead pluses at standouts. Direct south facing spots were mostly chest high.
Buoys in the outer waters were running 6'. Nearshore buoys were running 2.2' (south facing) to 2.6' (west facing).
Tide levels are moderate for now. Today we have a 4.5' high around 3:30 AM, a 0.1' low around noon, and a 3.2' high around 8:00 PM.
Water temps were running 58-60° in most of SD and OC yesterday, although Huntington Beach reported 56°. LA was hovering around 58°. In VC, Channel Islands Harbor reported 59° overnight. In SB, Stearns Wharf reported 56° this morning.
Surf Forecast:
Today (Sunday the 17th) we're seeing NW ground swell from an earlier Aleutian system, along with fading Tasman Sea swell, and other, lesser southern hemi. The NW ground swell should run chest to head high at west facing breaks Monday the 18th, and then smaller Tuesday the 19th. The southern hemi swells should fade Monday and Tuesday as well.
Tuesday the 19th (building day) into Wednesday the 20th (peak day) should see spotty, infrequent NW ground swell from this very distant system that recently traveled from Japan to the Kamchatka region (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
Although housing 35' seas, its peak from 3,600 nautical miles away on a northerly course means we'll get just enough of a glancing blow of energy to provide chest high sets at west facing breaks by Wednesday the 20th. Swell should be angled from 305° with periods 17 seconds. But there should be few waves per set and long lulls between sets.
Wednesday the 20th should also have background southern hemi ground swell from this system that was near New Zealand but took an unfortunate course southward (model by FNMOC):
This should bring waist high sets to south facing spots, angled from 210° with periods 16 seconds. NW wrap should be equal to that in size.
Saturday the 23rd could see NW ground swell from this system that broke off Japan late last week, shown here at its peak (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
This should bring sets up to head high at west facing breaks Saturday the 23rd, angled from 295° with periods 16 seconds. But being so distant (3,000 nautical miles from SoCal), sets may be somewhat infrequent. Also, there are question marks on conditions as a storm could approach SoCal, bringing NW wind swell Sunday the 24th into Monday the 25th (model by FNMOC):
Those red blobs of vorticity could spin some hefty rain into SoCal, but winds would no-doubt increase either way. This would make for wind swell waves reaching slightly overhead by Monday the 25th. So looking at the coming weekend as a whole: Saturday the 23rd would be the cleanest day with head high (but spotty) NW ground swell; Sunday the 24th could see NW wind swell start to enter the mix, but ground swell chest to head high at west facing breaks; and then Monday the 25th would be dominated by NW wind swell running slightly overhead at west facing breaks. That model above is out seven days, so it's a bit early to call with high confidence; however, enough models are onboard to give this at least a 70% chance right now.
Tuesday the 26th (building day) into Wednesday the 27th (peak day) should see moderate NW ground swell from this cute little system in the Western Pacific on the 3-day models (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
That would be the start of a 3-day building trend as it would be the first of three systems that would progressively increase size at west facing breaks. So far, this would likely start things out in the chest high range at west facing breaks by Wednesday the 27th, angled from 300° with 15-second periods.
Thursday the 28th would see somewhat bigger surf from this larger system on the 5-day models, housing decent-sized, 35' seas from 3,500 nautical miles away (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
That could increase size to head high at west facing breaks Thursday the 28th, with swell angled from 295° and periods 16 seconds.
Friday the 29th could see size increase further as this much closer system is showing up on the 9-day models, housing impressive 30' seas from just 1,600 nautical miles from SoCal, making a beeline to the coast (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
From that position, size would work out to a couple feet overhead at west facing breaks. But if that system gets closer and can maintain its 30' seas, then size could be bigger. Swell would be angled from 290° with periods 15 seconds. That system's proximity and course smacks of weather and/or winds, which, so far, are being held off until possibly Saturday the 30th, allowing one clean day of good-sized ground swell before weather gets the better of it. There's still a way to go before making the call on this one, but with your support I'll stay on top of it and keep you posted.
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Here's how the day-to-day is breaking down so far:
Monday the 18th looks about chest to head high at west facing breaks.
Tuesday the 19th is expected to run chest high at west facing breaks, but with few waves per set and long lulls between sets.
Wednesday the 20th is expected to run chest high at west facing breaks, but with few waves per set and long lulls between sets. South facing breaks should run at waist high.
Thursday the 21st looks about waist to at times chest high at west facing breaks, with few waves per set and long lulls between sets.
Friday the 22nd looks about waist high at west facing breaks.
Saturday the 23rd is expected to run head high on the better sets at west facing breaks, but sets may be infrequent with longer than normal lulls between sets.
Sunday the 24th, so far, looks similar; however, NW wind swell may start to fill in.
Monday the 25th, so far, could run head high+ from wind swell at west facing breaks.
Tuesday the 26th, so far, looks about chest high at west facing breaks.
Wednesday the 27th, so far, looks about chest at west facing breaks.
Thursday the 28th, so far, holds potential for head high sets at west facing breaks.
Friday the 29th, so far, holds potential for sets running up to 2' overhead at west facing breaks.
Weather Outlook:
Today (Sunday the 17th) SoCal continues to be affected by that retrograding cut-off low, shown here from space this morning (image from NOAA GOES):
Although a large high pressure system (green circle) is covering the American West (swirling in some Pacific moisture in its clockwise spin), the cut-off low (red circle) continues to travel from from east to west, retrograding to SoCal, bringing its own payload of moisture and clouds. That low's position and track is mostly south of LA, where most of its effects will be felt today and tomorrow as this will no-doubt bring rain to the mountains, but possibly to some coastal sections as well — mostly OC and SD.
Today should be rather clear north of LA, and for part of the morning from LA south. But by later this morning clouds should pile up across the mountains and spread toward the coast from LA south through SD. Light precip is possible along the coast this afternoon in OC and SD, with the greatest chance in SD. Some models show light precip affecting parts of the VC and SB coasts, but that seems much less likely. Convective parameters (CAPE), which can indicate thunderstorms and hail, are high enough across the mountains of SD to warrant severe cells there this afternoon, but the CAPE values are much lower along the coast. Still, there is an outside chance of seeing some kind of brief cell along the SD coast this afternoon with dynamic conditions. And in between, like around Escondido (and longitudes thereabouts) some rain and thunder is likely. Either way, beach max temps should run in the low to mid 60s along most of the coast.
Monday the 18th is an odd weather day as the cut-off low spins a slight offshore flow through SoCal for a slight warm-up with beaches teasing the 70° mark. Skies should be mostly clear for the morning everywhere, but then clouds pile up again in the afternoon from LA south, mostly across the mountains. But some models show this reaching the coast with light precip in OC and SD at some point Monday afternoon. Any rain would be brief; however, the CAPE values climb considerably Monday afternoon with thunderstorms highly likely in the mountains, with somewhat unsettled/dynamic conditions in the valleys, but less near the coast. Still, this warrants watching as there could be a brief cell or two with dynamics near the coasts of OC and SD Monday afternoon.
Tuesday the 19th holds the slightest of chances for storm dynamics, precip, etc. as the low should weaken and start to dissipate. Skies look fairly clear with max beach temps in the mid 60s.
Wednesday the 20th should be a fairly clear day with beach max temps in the mid 60s.
Thursday the 21st may see some AM marine layer as high pressure breaks down over the American West and an onshore flow slowly ensues. High clouds are also in the forecast. Any marine layer that does form should burn off quickly. Max beach temps should run in the mid 60s.
Friday the 22nd should begin a transition as high pressure breaks down and exits the area, and the jetstream takes on a more direct path over SoCal to line up a series of rainmaking storms to our area (model by NOAA MAG):
That's how the jetstream/storm-track (green) would look by Saturday night (23rd), running smackdab through SoCal. Friday the 22nd would be a transition day to that pattern with an increased onshore flow: AM marine layer and max beach temps in the low 60s. But rain would follow shortly after. So far, many models are showing rain Saturday the 23rd into Sunday the 24th, with some models showing heavy amounts, but others showing light amounts. Another shot of rain is possible Monday the 25th into Tuesday the 26h. And more rain is possible Friday the 29th into Sunday the 30th. So far, from this weekend through the end of next week, median rainfall totals are coming in at 0.25-0.5" along much of the coast. I'll narrow in on timing and amounts in my reports this week.
Wind Outlook:
Winds
at 6:00 AM (Sunday the 17th) were light and variable most everywhere with a slight offshore element. Afternoon onshores should run 8-12 mph.
Monday the 18th should see AM light and variables with an offshore element and afternoon onshores 10-15 mph.
Tuesday the 19th should see AM light and variables with a slight offshore element and afternoon onshores 8-12 mph.
Wednesday the 20th, should see AM light and variables and afternoon onshores 8-12 mph.
Thursday the 21st, should see AM light and variables and afternoon onshores 8-12 mph.
Friday the 22nd, so far, might see onshores pick up early, and afternoon onshores to 15 mph.
Until my next report (Tuesday), take care, be safe, and smile in the lineup!