SoCal Forecast
Updated most Sundays, Tuesdays, and Thursdays
Tuesday June 24, 2025 6:00 AM
By Nathan Cool
Surf Charts for SoCal
Rincon | Ventura, C-St. | County Line | Malibu | Hermosa | Huntington BeachTrestles | Old Mans | Oceanside | Beacons | Sunset Cliffs
Subscribe to be notified:
Get notified when this report is updated.
Schedule change this week: I have a medical procedure Thursday so Thursday's report will be delayed until Friday.
At a glance:
Today (Tuesday the 24th) is a small day for surf in SoCal. Light southern hemisphere ground swell slowly builds Thursday the 26th, eventually peaking Saturday the 28th. Initially minor SW ground swell builds Wednesday the 2nd into Thursday the 3rd. We'll likely see an increase in SW ground swell Friday the 4th into Saturday the 5th. The next SW ground swell is being watched for the 7th. Tropical activity and southern hemi swells are being watched on the long range. Condition-wise: seasonal weather and winds with only slight day-to-day fluctuations; a tidal swing is underway; and water temps are fair for this time of year.
|
|
|
Current Conditions:
Early this morning, periods were primarily running 9 seconds from 315° and 14 seconds from 180°.
Most breaks were running knee to waist high.
Buoys in the outer waters were running 4-6'. Nearshore buoys were running 2.0-2.5' with wind swell being about 75% of that.
Tide levels are swinging wide as we approach a New Moon Wednesday the 25th. Today we have a -1.5' low around 4:00 AM, a 3.7' high around 10:30 AM, a 2.2' low around 2:30 PM, and then a deep 7' high around 9:00 PM.
Water temps were running 66-70° around most of SD and OC yesterday, although Huntington Beach reported 64° at one point yesterday. LA was running 65-69°. In VC, Channel Islands Harbor reported 66° last night. In SB, the USCG and Stearns Wharf readings are once again unavailable, but the channel reported 59° this morning, down a few degrees from yesterday.
Surf Forecast:
Today (Tuesday the 24th) and Wednesday the 25th are small days for surf in SoCal but things will pick up a bit for the second half of the week. Better sized surf is on the way for the second half of next week, but first things first.
Thursday the 26th (slow building day) into Friday the 27th (better building day) and Saturday the 28th (peak day) should see light southern hemisphere ground swell these two systems that peaked near New Zealand about a week ago (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
The lower latitude system (A) had bigger seas than the one farther north (B), so the longer periods of the former should arrive when the shorter periods from the latter show up in SoCal. All told, south facing breaks should initially run knee to waist high Thursday the 26th; waist high Friday the 27th; and then waist to chest Saturday the 28th. Swell should be angled from around 205° with periods 15-17 seconds. This swell should back down to waist max Sunday the 29th.
Monday the 30th and Tuesday the 1st look like much smaller days with just knee to waist max waves at most breaks.
Wednesday the 2nd (building day) into Thursday the 3rd (initial peak day) should see SW ground swell from these two areas of high seas in a large swirling low that recently formed near New Zealand (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
All told, that should initially bring waist max waves to south facing breaks Wednesday the 2nd, increasing to chest max Thursday the 3rd, angled from 210° and periods 16 seconds.
Friday the 4th (building day) into Saturday the 5th (peak) will likely see a slight increase in SW ground swell from this system that's expected to peak a bit farther east (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
That's on the 3-day models, which works out (at this point) to chest max waves at south facing breaks Friday the 4th, and chest+ Saturday the 5th. Swell would be angled from 185-190° with periods 16 seconds. I need a few more days to see how this plays out, and I'll put a bow on this in my next report (Friday this week instead of my usual Thursday).
Monday the 7th has a chance of seeing the next southern hemisphere ground swell from this fetch embedded in dynamic southern hemisphere activity (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
All those shades of orange/red indicate high seas that would send a steady yet light to moderate flow of southern hemi ground swell to SoCal. That red pit pointed to by the arrow is a bit bigger at 27', which would result in chest max sets at south facing breaks Monday the 7th, with swell angled from 190° and periods up to 16 seconds. That's on the 4-day outlook so I'll need more time on this one too.
Next up is potential for tropical swell somewhere around the 10th-12th from this long-shot low on the long-range (model by NOAA MAG):
That's 16 days out so it's a footnote today. But the 8-day southern hemisphere models show New Zealand activity that could arrive around the 11th-12th in SoCal, so not all hope is lost for that timeframe. Still, all of this is down the line, and too early to call. But as long as I have your support then I can continue to watch the Pacific and keep you posted.
|
|
|
Here's how the day-to-day is breaking down so far:
Wednesday the 25th looks about knee to waist everywhere.
Thursday the 26th looks about waist max at south facing breaks and knee to waist at west facing spots.
Friday the 27th looks about waist high at south facing breaks and knee to waist at west facing spots.
Saturday the 28th looks about waist to chest at south facing breaks and knee to waist at west facing spots.
Sunday the 29th should run waist high at south facing breaks and and knee high at west facing spots.
Monday the 30th looks about knee to waist at south facing breaks, smaller at west facing spots.
Tuesday the 1st looks about knee to waist at south facing breaks, smaller at west facing spots.
Wednesday the 2nd looks about waist high at south facing breaks.
Thursday the 3rd should run chest max at south facing breaks.
Friday the 4th, so far, is likely to see chest max surf at south facing breaks.
Saturday the 5th, so far, looks about chest+ at south facing spots.
Sunday the 6th, so far, looks about chest high at south facing spots.
Monday the 7th, so far, looks about chest high at south facing spots.
Tuesday the 8th, so far, looks about waist to chest at south facing spots.
Wednesday the 9th, so far, looks about waist high at south facing spots.
Thursday the 10th, so far, looks about waist high at south facing spots.
Friday the 11th (and/or Saturday the 12th) holds potential for tropical swell and/or southern hemisphere ground swell. I'll have more on that in my next report.
Weather Outlook:
Today (Tuesday the 24th) a weak trough of low pressure is pushing through SoCal. This will flatten into a zonal flow Wednesday the 25th through Friday the 27th with no major high or low pressure over SoCal, but primarily weak onshore flow. High pressure then builds Saturday the 28th and Sunday the 29th over the 4-Corners region, extending into SoCal. All of this changes the weather very little for the SoCal coast with just minor day-to-day fluctuations now through the weekend. Breaking it down day by day:
Today (Tuesday the 24th) should have a late burn-off with a stubborn marine layer in many spots, but at least partial clearing at the coast this afternoon. Max beach temps should reach the mid to upper 60s.
Wednesday the 25th should see a fair amount of marine layer in the morning with burn-off likely by noon. Max beach temps should reach the mid to upper 60s.
Thursday the 26th should once again see a fair amount of marine layer in the morning with burn-off likely by noon. Max beach temps should reach the mid to upper 60s.
Friday the 27th should see morning marine layer burn off late morning with beach max temps in the upper 60s to near 70°.
Saturday the 28th should see morning marine layer burn off by late morning with max beach temps in the upper 60s to low 70s.
Sunday the 29th should see morning marine layer burn off midmorning with max beach temps in the upper 60s to low 70s.
Monday the 30th could then see a cut-off low slide south along the west coast to SoCal. This would increase the onshore flow a bit but it's too early to call today.
Wind Outlook:
Winds
at 6:00 AM were light and variable most everywhere with a light southerly element in many spots. Afternoon onshores should run 10-15 mph.
Wednesday the 25th should see AM light and variables with a southerly element and afternoon onshores 10-15 mph.
Thursday the 26th should see AM light and variables, likely calm in many spots, and afternoon onshores 8-12 mph.
Friday the 27th should see AM light and variables and afternoon onshores 8-12 mph.
Saturday the 28th will likely see AM light and variables and afternoon onshores 7-11 mph.
Sunday the 29th will likely see AM light and variables and afternoon onshores 7-11 mph.
Until my next report (Friday instead of Thursday this week), take care, be safe, and smile in the lineup!
