SoCal Forecast
Updated most Sundays, Tuesdays, and Thursdays
Tuesday May 20, 2025 6:15 AM
By Nathan Cool
Surf Charts for SoCal
Rincon | Ventura, C-St. | County Line | Malibu | Hermosa | Huntington BeachTrestles | Old Mans | Oceanside | Beacons | Sunset Cliffs
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At a glance:
Today (Tuesday the 20th) we still have a fair amount of NW wind swell in SoCal with lesser southern hemisphere ground swell. Although NW wind swell persists to varying degrees through the forecast, southerly ground swell becomes dominant later this week, more so over the holiday weekend. SSE swell follows that. Moderate SW ground swell is becoming likely for the weekend of the 31st-1st. And more southern hemis are being watched for 6/4 and 6/6. Condition-wise: fair weather and winds through the forecast but with a bit more onshore push this coming weekend; tide levels swing wider in a few days, more so by early next week; and water temps are up in many spots.
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Current Conditions:
Early this morning, periods were primarily running 8 seconds from 320° and 14 seconds from 180°.
Most west facing breaks were running chest high with occasional pluses. South facing spots were mostly waist high, bigger at SW exposed spots.
Buoys in the outer waters were running 10'. Nearshore buoys were running 1.9' (south facing) to 2.5' (west facing).
Tide levels are moderate now but they will start swinging wider in a few days as we approach a New Moon Monday the 26th. Today we have a 4' high around 3:00 AM, a 0.5' low around 10:30 AM, a 4' high around 5:30 PM, and a 2.5' low before midnight.
Water temps were running 63-67° in most of SD and OC. LA was mostly 60-64°. In VC, Channel Islands Harbor reported 60° this morning but had been running 64° yesterday. SB Harbor reported 60° last night.
Surf Forecast:
Today (Tuesday the 20th) NW wind swell has become dominant from persistent winds off NorCal while southern hemisphere ground swell takes a temporary backseat. NW winds will persist off NorCal for a while, keeping waist to chest high NW wind swell at SoCal's west facing breaks for the rest of the week and the coming weekend. So for the short term, Wednesday the 21st looks a lot like today with chest high wind swell waves at west facing breaks and waist high-ish waves at south facing breaks. Thursday the 22nd looks about waist high at most spots.
Friday the 23rd (building early in the morning) into Saturday the 24th should see the first of two southerly ground swells from activity that formed between New Zealand and Chile. Here's the first one, which peaked late last week (model by NOAA MAG):
With 35-40' seas but on a less than ideal course, south facing breaks in SoCal are looking at sets running chest+ with swell angled from 190° and periods 18-19 seconds by Saturday the 24th — less consistent chest high sets are due at south facing spots Friday the 23rd.
Sunday the 25th should see the second swell, which took a much better course but with smaller seas in the 30-35' range (model by NOAA MAG):
That should produce chest+ sets at south facing breaks with some head high pluses at standouts Sunday the 25th. Swell should be angled from 200° with periods 16-18 seconds. Note that this second swell's ETA is for early to midmorning Sunday the 25th so dawn patrols may have to wait a few hours to see the bulk of the swell. In any case, this swell should run chest+ Monday the 26th.
Tuesday the 27th should see southerly ground swell from this activity west of Chile (model by NOAA MAG):
That stayed the course with 35' seas, which should produce chest+ sets at south facing breaks that can work a 175-180° swell angle. Periods should run 18 seconds. This swell should linger Wednesday the 28th and fade Thursday the 29th.
Saturday the 31st will likely see moderate SW ground swell from this system on the 3-day models east of New Zealand (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
Running the numbers on that this morning, size is coming in at chest high at south facing breaks Saturday the 31st and Sunday the 1st with swell angled from 205° and periods 18 seconds.
Sunday the 1st into Monday the 2nd are curious days in the forecast as a run of the GFS model last night showed a massive fetch forming south of French Polynesia with 45' seas. No other model showed that, and the next model run six hours later didn't show that fetch at all. But, with the automated charts being initialized on that data (GFS-WAVE 0h run), the automated charts today show a hefty increase in southern hemi ground swell for the 1st into the 2nd. I'm not buying it as no other model aligns with that, only one model run showed that, and even that was on the 6-day projection. Instead, I'd count on chest high ground swell Sunday the 1st from the New Zealand swell, possibly lingering at chest high Monday the 2nd before temporarily backing off Tuesday the 3rd. If future model runs don't show that development then I'll drop it from the forecast — but keep it here as a footnote for now.
Wednesday the 4th remains on track (so far) for moderate southerly ground swell from activity driven north in this bend of the jetstream (model by NOAA MAG):
The 6-day models this morning show a variety of modest activity in the 25' range, which, being sent ideally northward, would produce chest max sets at south facing breaks Wednesday the 4th and Thursday the 5th. Swell would be angled from 190° with periods 14 seconds. While that's a bit too early to call today, there's more showing up on the extended long range.
Friday the 6th into the weekend of the 7th-8th has a chance of seeing decent sized SW ground swell from this bigger system caught up in the southern hemi jet's northward bend (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
That's on the 9-day models, making it too early to call. But running the numbers anyway, size comes in at chest to head high at south facing breaks with swell angled from 190° and periods 16 seconds.
And last up on the long range surf horizon, many models show the potential for the first Northeast Pacific hurricane of the season forming in about a week. Here's the 9-day look from the GFS model (model by NOAA MAG):
The most bullish models take this just to the east of our swell window, going into the Sea of Cortez. Other models show landfall much earlier along Central America. But if this system were to traverse slightly to the west then we could see SE swell from it around the 31st. I'm not counting on it, and if this doesn't develop further over the next few days then I'll drop it from the forecast. It is though an interesting feature, signalling the beginning of our region's hurricane season.
All told, there is a lot to watch in the way of waves across the Pacific. I'll be keeping a close watch and as long as I have your support then I can continue this report to keep you posted. Please remember that I'm not the one keeping this report alive — you are (more on that here).
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Here's how the day-to-day is breaking down so far:
Wednesday the 21st looks about waist to chest at west facing breaks and waist max at south facing spots.
Thursday the 22nd looks about waist high at most breaks.
Friday the 23rd should see southern hemi swell by midmorning, running waist to chest at south facing breaks. West facing breaks look about waist high.
Saturday the 24th looks about chest high at south facing breaks and waist to chest at west facing spots.
Sunday the 25th looks about chest+ at south facing breaks (some head high pluses are possible) and waist+ at west facing spots.
Monday the 26th looks about chest+ at south facing breaks and waist to chest at west facing spots.
Tuesday the 27th looks about chest high at south facing spots and waist high at west facing spots.
Wednesday the 28th, so far, looks about chest high at south facing spots.
Thursday the 29th, so far, looks about waist high everywhere.
Friday the 30th, so far, looks about waist high everywhere.
Saturday the 31st, so far, looks about chest high at south facing breaks.
Sunday the 1st, so far, is expected to run chest high at south facing breaks. There is an apparent anomaly on the automated charts (see above) showing bigger surf, and although less likely, it does need more monitoring over the next few days.
Weather Outlook:
Today (Tuesday the 20th) moderate to strong high pressure over the American West will create a warm-up this week inland, but it'll have much less effect at the coast. As is typical this time of year, coastal temps will be regulated by marine moisture, which often thickens up from a thermal inversion due to rapid rising of inland heat compared to cool surface air at the coast. But that isn't so much the case now as water temps are warming nicely, keeping overnight low temps rather warm (60° or so at the beaches). And although winds are robust off NorCal, there doesn't appear to be enough NW wind in the outer waters off SoCal to stir up any coastal eddies, thus lessening the amount of marine moisture that the inversion would work with. So while some marine layer is possible at the coast over the next few days, it should be minimal until the weekend. Most models then show a low pressure trough pushing south toward SoCal during the day Friday the 23rd, and another that could follow by Monday the 26th. These are expected to increase NW winds in the outer waters, which would increase the chance for coastal eddy development to thicken up the marine layer for the holiday weekend.
So today (Tuesday the 20th) through Friday the 23rd, look for minimal AM marine layer with an early to mid AM burn-off and max beach temps around 70°.
Saturday the 24th through Monday the 26th will more than likely see more AM marine layer with a late AM burn-off and max beach temps in the upper 60s.
Wind Outlook:
Winds
at 7:00 AM (Tuesday the 20th) were light and variable most everywhere. Afternoon onshores should run 8-12 mph.
Wednesday the 21st should see AM light and variables with afternoon onshores 8-12 mph.
Thursday the 22nd should see AM light and variables with afternoon onshores 8-12 mph.
Friday the 23rd should see AM light and variables with afternoon onshores to 15 mph.
Saturday the 24th should see AM light and variables with afternoon onshores to 15 mph, stronger at times north of LA to 20 mph.
Sunday the 25th, so far, is looking at AM light and variables with afternoon onshores 8-12 mph.
Until my next report (Thursday), take care, be safe, and smile in the lineup!
